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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Charlie Bilello - The Week in Charts
    Charlie Bilello also provides good and free info on Twitter. I have posted several tables/charts from him. They don't show up on MFO search because his name is within the links, often on the tables/charts themselves. One example is this post,
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60110/stock-and-bond-bears-of-2022#latest
    Those on Twitter can check him out here,
    https://twitter.com/charliebilello
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    CRYPTO Intrigue and Crash. It started with a Twitter spat between Sam Bankman-Fried “SBF”/FTX and Changpeng Zhao “CZ”/Binance. There were prior frictions from SBF’s closeness to the DC lawmakers, his push for a crypto legislation that was disliked by the crypto industry, his flamboyance, and his MIT connections. Someone leaked Alameda Research balance sheet that held lots of FTX token FTT and had other issues involving self-dealings between FTX and Alameda. CZ threatened to sell Binance’s entire FTT holding (about a half-billion dollars, a lot but not really that much), and a run on FTT and FTX (international) began. Ironically, SBF asked CZ for a rescue, and initially CZ agreed to do that for a song ($1 + FTX liabilities), but then withdrew a day later upon due diligence (some say that CZ was never serious about the rescue and was really going for the final kill). Then, SBF tried to patch up a $8-10 billion hole by raising new funds from his investors/supporters, but by now, SBF, FTX and Alameda were damaged goods (especially after CZ pulled out of the rescue saying that situation was hopeless and beyond what he/Binance could do). So, SBF filed for bankruptcy for FTX and 130 related entities, and surprising, that also including FTX-US (it was previously thought that the problem was with FTX-International only). The $32 billion empire of 30-yr old SBF (and his personal net worth of $16 billion) collapsed within a week (literally, within hours) causing $125 billion in estimated losses in the crypto industry. Regulators all over the globe moved in to freeze FTX assets. In the US, the SEC, CFTC, WH and Congress are looking at this fiasco. The full extent of this crypto contagion is yet to be determined/felt. The US-listed Coinbase/COIN was not involved in this mess, but its stock also suffered. (News on Saturday morning is that SBF may have fled from Bahamas to Argentina)
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/ftx-binance-sam-bankman-fried-crypto-bitcoin-solana-price-crash-51668135110?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/362/barron-november-14-2022-2
  • Timely Tax Ideas from Barron's This Week
    Another follow up,
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-losses-reduce-capital-gains-tax-51668037376?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/362/barron-november-14-2022-2
    TAX STRATEGIES. Use tax-loss harvesting (TLH) this year for benefits in future years. Tax-loss CARRYFORWARDS don’t expire and can be used to offset future gains and up to $3,000/yr in ordinary income from net losses. Beware of WASH-SALE rule (to avoid +/- 30 day window for transactions). Use DOUBLE-UP strategy (buy to double position by November 29, sell the older lot on December 30, the last trading day of 2022), OR swap with something SIMILAR but not identical right away (easily possible with so many OEFs and ETFs). REINVESTING may cause small disallowances due to wash-sale, but they don’t spoil the entire TLH; one can also discontinue reinvestments to avoid this issue. With large declines in both stocks and bonds, consider TLH for all types of funds (stocks, bonds, hybrids). If you have losses in CRYPTOS, note that wash-sale rules don’t apply (but the IRS may not like immediate buys/sells). OTHER strategies: Delay/SHIFT income to lower tax years; use annual GIFTS of up to $16K/yr/person (2022), $17K/yr/person (2023) to avoid filing the Form 709 (complicated, but also doable); ROTH CONVERSIONS (immediate tax hit, but withdrawals are tax-free in retirement and no RMDs); CHARITABLE contributions.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Nov 12th Episode
    As the markets fluctuate around us, how much should investors change?
    This week’s guest has his own historical perspective on that question because he has lived through a momentous evolution in the markets. He is Charles Ellis, whose storied career started on Wall Street in 1963 after graduating from the Harvard Business School. He was a skeptical analyst during the go-go years of the 60s and founded Greenwich Associates, the top Wall Street consulting firm to major investment firms, institutions, and governments.
    He was an influential board member of Yale’s endowment advising its legendary head, David Swensen. He’s taught advanced investment courses at both Yale and Harvard. And he has authored 20 investment books, including the classic, Winning the Loser’s Game, now in its 8th edition, and the recently published Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors’ Most Important Questions, which we will discuss in this week’s exclusive TV interview.
    In the first of a two-part interview, Ellis will discuss the most significant changes that have occurred in the markets and what they mean for investors.


  • Any reason for 401K/403B rollover to T-IRA be a segregated account
    Yes, most federal protections of 401k/403b carryover to their rollovers to T-IRAs. Some lawyerly type posters have argued that the courts/judges/lawyers can sort out funds within a mixed/tainted T-IRA, but then there is the risk that entire T-IRA can be frozen as things are being sorted out at T-IRA owner's expense.
  • Any reason for 401K/403B rollover to T-IRA be a segregated account
    Hi @yogibearbull
    I was aware of protections with active 401K/403B accounts, but was not aware that possible similar protections may apply to rollovers into a T-IRA account.
    Thank you.
    Catch
  • Any reason for 401K/403B rollover to T-IRA be a segregated account
    There are good reasons to keep all 401k/403b rollovers into a separate T-IRA. It is OK to have all rollovers into one T-IRA. But putting them in T-IRAs with personal contributions can lead to complications in bankruptcy or lawsuits.
    Basically, widely varying state laws apply to contributory T-IRAs (some generous, others not so). Federal rules/protections apply to 401k/403b rollover funds. A mixed/tainted T-IRA can lead to frozen T-IRA a/c in bankruptcy or lawsuits.
    Simplification or saving some annual fee for T-IRAs are not good reasons to create a giant but messy T-IRA.
  • Any reason for 401K/403B rollover to T-IRA be a segregated account
    Neighbor chit-chat.
    Background:
    --- Existing T-IRA account at investment house 'X'.
    The plan is to rollover 401K and 403B plans, from former employer, to a traditional IRA. A T-IRA account already exists.
    Is there any reason to not rollover the monies into the existing T-IRA account???
    Thank you.
    Catch
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week

    nov. 11, '22. calvasina and bianco again. they are interesting to listen to, from where i sit.

  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Nov. 11 edition here.
    All three guests think the peak yield this year for the 10y Treasury is already in, and agree with the consensus of a 50 bp Fed rate rise in December. Some talk of scaling back expectations a bit for the presumed Fed's terminal hiking cycle rate ...
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    Saw a brief P. McCully interview a couple of weeks ago. His thinking at the time was that there's a good chance the bond-buying flood gates will open and knock down yields (didn't opine on which ones) as more dovish Fedspeak debuts in December.
    The Nov. inflation report comes out on the 13th, and the Fed meeting is the 13th-14th. Even if McCully's right, there's a month for yields to maybe bounce back some before then.
  • October Inflation Report Price Pressures Show Signs of Cooling
    NYTimes is behind a paywall. However, Paul Krugman articles can be find in Apple News subscribers. Type in his name and search. Think this is the twitters posting davidmoran from earlier.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/paul-krugman-cpi-inflation-drop-soft-landing-economy-recession-prediction-2022-11
  • Brokerage CD Marketplace at Schwab
    Same at Fido. Hopefully issuers come back with longer dated CDs next week.
    Next Fed rate increase (50bp?) is not until Dec. 14th.
  • Nice Gain for T Rowe Price (TROW)
    Don't forget to re-invest the 4.48% dividend each month.
    4.4 share of McDonald's purchased at its IPO (1965):
    if-you-had-invested-100-in-mcdonalds-ipo-heres-how
    The math isn't as simple as taking the stock's return since the IPO date. First, we have to account for the many stock splits that McDonald's has announced over the years. A $100 investment would have yielded you 4.4 shares based on the initial price of $22.50, but McDonald's has performed 12 stock splits that cumulatively expanded share counts by a factor of 729. In other words, your initial 4.4-share holding would have grown to 3,208 shares over the decades. Based on that expanded share total, we can determine the value of your IPO investment, which would be $622,352 based on McDonald's recent closing price in early December 2019 of $194 per share.
    There's another element that's at least as important as those stock split adjustments, and that's dividends. McDonald's is a Dividend Aristocrat, having paid and increased its dividend in each of the last 39 years. Dividend reinvestment is a fantastic way to supercharge your returns over long time frames, and that phenomenon is certainly true in this case.
    Maybe we need to get our great grand kids to consider this strategy since they may have the time to allow for the necessary compounding.
    That was a very strong one day jump...nice feeling!
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Giroux's recent reduction in his GE position may have been well timed (or not). GE has done fine lately with the rebound in cyclicals.
    IMO, with the Nasdaq and crypto crashes (and money just vanishing like poof), investors may be shifting to more tangible stuff - old line cyclicals and commodities. Dollar has also fallen sharply from its recent highs (it is still high) but some had said to watch for trend change if DXY breaks 108 and it is doing that TODAY.
    GE https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60245353998
    DXY https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB?p=DX-Y.NYB
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    I just noticed Giroux still owns GE. As of 10/31/22 GE is 2.35% of assets.

    yes, he said he's holding it with the upcoming break-up in mind. three separate outfits. (wealthtrack.)
    I don't blame him. GE remains on my watchlist b/c I am interested in their Aviation and Health Care spinoffs ...but I haven't bought any yet.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    A little snippet rom Alex Eule at Barron's re: yesterday's market action:
    "Among the stocks on my dashboard that I follow every day, the biggest gainers were: online car dealer Carvana (+32%), e-commerce firm Wayfair (+28%), alternative meat producer Beyond Meat (+20%), and two other e-commerce firms, Chewy (+20%) and Shopify (+18%).
    Those are stocks that have been thrashed over the last year, Carvana is down 96% from its 52-week highs, Wayfair and Beyond Meat are both down 85%, and Shopify is off 75%. Chewy has held up the best from the above list, down only 47% from its 52-week high.
    Several colleagues pointed out to me that all you had to do to understand risk sentiment today was to look at the performance of Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF. It soared 15% on the day -- the eight-year old fund's best ever day -- after touching a 52-week low yesterday.
    ARK is filled with high-growth stocks that soared during the pandemic and tanked over the last year. Its top holdings are now Zoom Video Communications, Tesla, Exact Sciences, Roku, and Block. Those five stocks were up an average of 13% today."
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    I just noticed Giroux still owns GE. As of 10/31/22 GE is 2.35% of assets.
    yes, he said he's holding it with the upcoming break-up in mind. three separate outfits. (wealthtrack.)