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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Nowhere near as bad as ‘07-‘09 - Yet
    Inflation, eh? Let us consider. Federal government monetary stimulus that was needed to help stabilize a very damaged economy (Covid); large demand/spending by the consumer, post Covid (expected, yes!), supply chain damage, Putin's war and China on the freak out when their vaccine can't control Covid spread. And more.....
    Ya, these things can and do cause inflation...Econ. 101.
    Ah, a fix. Blow the hell out of interest rates. That will take care of these clowns (the public) who keep spending money. Wait till they find what we do to mortgage rates and auto loans........and everything else connected to borrowing.
    They'll discover we can fix anything economic.
    Yu think they have the fire trucks on standby; when things get out of control, an overshoot; when enough folks lose their work and all that is related to that, for the economy.
    One may hope they (Fed.) are the smartest kids on the block; whether one agrees or not, they have the power/control.
    Unlikely to be very pretty, economically happy time going forward for many; and then the gears will again change (QE) direction. I've never enjoyed riding a roller coaster at a theme park; and I don't care much for the economic ones either.
    Will Fed actions cause rents to move downward or free up the supply chain woes; or reduce crude oil prices and related gasoline prices....don't think so.
    Lest you think that I'm not empathetic, I am. All of this affects everyone I know, including yours truly.
    The games, the humans play.
    Burn the house down mode.....
    All aboard the Fed. train
  • Are you checking your portfolio too often?
    I check my portfolio daily performance relative to PRWCX and also the daily relative price movement of portfolio constituents. I check my cash balance occasionally (no schedule), depending on how aggressively I am buying or selling. I check my portfolio balance once a year, around Dec 31.
    PRWCX beats me more often than not. Because I beat PRWCX once in a while, I tell myself I have a hope to get better. When it beats me more regularly, I will take the cue and adopt a passive approach.
    I understand checking your portfolio against PRWCX.
    What do you mean by also checking against the daily relative price movement of your portfolio constituents? And, how do you use that information?
  • 2% swr
    Some of these comments make me wonder if the poster read the MW article (Hulbert is a smart and prudent cookie, in my long experience of reading him) , much less the original paper, downloadable here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4227132 , and hugely sobering if the case.
    Still a rank newbie here at MutualFundObserver and I will take instruction as to whether it is appropriate to point to related discussions on another forum.
    Hoping that it is, I started a discussion on this paper over at Bogleheads.org: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=387165
    Although some posters defaulted to a thumbs up/ thumbs down stance, there are also some quite searching criticisms of the paper. I would say on balance that good reasons were given for not accepting the headline withdrawal rates in the study. Much depends on how to treat war loss years.
    I'll monitor any responses here in this thread and respond here if I can.
  • 2% swr
    It turns out that deferred accounts are deadly for some widows. The following is an estimate I have made of the federal tax and Medicare B consequences of my husband's death.
    Although my income including RMDs from both accounts goes down 19.12%, my taxable income only goes down 8.79% which makes my taxes go up 33.53% landing me in a higher tax bracket.
    I'm not sure yet what exactly will happen with Medicare B or when it will happen. As far as I can tell I will, at a minimum, triple my Medicare B premium. It may quadruple if I read the latest table correctly.
    Dear Anna: you may find this paper reassuring (or not): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3896672
    I took a behavioral finance approach in the paper: yes, single tax rates are higher, and yes, unlucky singles can pay more in IRMAA than the couple had.
    But rates are one thing, net dollars paid / saved are another. The paper argues that if you focus on whether you can fund the same lifestyle, as a widowed survivor, that you had as a member of the couple, you are probably going to be okay. Financially, that is; emotionally is another thing.
    I would welcome your comments and those of anyone else on the board.
    PS: the paper should be free to access, as all ssrn.com papers
  • Krugman: Tracking the Coming Economic Storm
    Interesting: https://nytimes.com/2022/10/06/opinion/fed-inflation-interest-rates.html
    Part of the problem is that the Fed hasn’t done what it’s doing now — drastically tightening money to fight inflation — for a long time, indeed since the early 1980s. And some analysts, perhaps including people at the Fed, may have forgotten one important lesson from monetary policy in the bad old days. Namely, it takes a significant amount of time before higher interest rates translate into either an economic slowdown or a drop in the inflation rate.
    Consider how Fed policy affects the real economy. One of the main channels is through housing. Higher interest rates lead to reduced demand for houses, which leads to a fall in construction; as incomes earned in housing construction slide, this leads to reduced demand for other goods, and the effects spill over to the economy at large.
    But all of this takes a while. The Fed’s rate hikes have indeed led to a sharp fall in applications for building permits. However, construction employment hasn’t yet even begun to decline, presumably because many workers are still busy finishing houses started when rates were lower. And the wider economic effects of the coming housing slump are still many months away.
    The other major channel through which the Fed affects the economy is via the value of the dollar. A strong dollar makes U.S. products less competitive on world markets; falling exports and rising imports will eventually be a major economic drag. But it takes time to shift to new suppliers, so this effect won’t really happen until next year.....
    ....For example, a new report shows that unfilled job offerings fell sharply in August. Why is this important? Many economists — especially economists who have been warning about persistent inflation — argue that the tightness of the labor market is better measured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment than by the unemployment rate itself. But this ratio, while still elevated, has already dropped substantially; as Goldman Sachs puts it, almost half of the gap between jobs and workers has been eliminated over the past few months.
    Another new report shows that demand for apartments has stalled, which will eventually translate into a decline in rent growth — which basically drives official estimates of the cost of shelter, a key component of most measures of underlying inflation.
    Oh, and remember all those supply-chain problems that disrupted the economy and raised inflation some months back? Well, the cost of shipping a container across the Pacific, which was $20,586 in September 2021, is now $2,265.
    I’d argue that these indicators tell us that the Fed has already done enough to ensure a big decline in inflation — but also, all too possibly, a recession.
  • CGM Funds to liquidate
    Current AUMs from M*:
    LOMMX $282.4 million
    CGMFX $341.9 million
    CGMRX $347.8 million
    Total for 3 CGM funds $972.1 million
    And nobody wanted to buy them?
    I think that there is some story or strategy behind this.
  • GQHPX
    firstrade
    Sorry. I'm not following.
  • 2% swr
    @Anna - that's a nice table there on the 2023 brackets. It makes the numbers concrete. Some people work better that way, some people prefer the abstract "Standard", "Standard * 1.4", etc.
    Regardless of how one looks at it, the ratios between brackets do remain fixed from year to year. So in 2023, the standard premium is $164.90, and the premium at the first IRMAA level is 1.4 times that, or $230.80. Okay, the government fudged a few pennies; 1.4 x $164.90 = $230.86. As the saying goes, close enough for government work :-)
    Depending on how everything works, there is a small chance that your premium could actually triple, more or less. The portion of your SS that is taxable might go up which in turn would increase the MAGI used to calculate your IRMAA bracket. Little quirks abound.
    I hope you're not too badly hit by IRMAA, and more importantly, that you're doing okay after the death of your husband.
  • Nowhere near as bad as ‘07-‘09 - Yet
    According to Bloomberg the S&P is now down 21.44% YTD. The NASDAQ is off a bit over 29% over that period. According to Wikipedia, from late 2007 until March 2009 the S&P lost about 50% of its value. In truth, the ‘07-‘09 bear market was much longer than the current one. Precious metals miners bucked the down trend today. Not sure if this is the start of a p/m bull market, but quite interesting. By all accounts, Friday’s Payrolls numbers release is a major mover to keep an eye on.
    Wikipedia 2007-09 Bear Market
  • 2% swr
    Just got this little booger via email from TRP. Their findings show that 7 of 10 in retirement are still possessed of a saver's mentality----- willing to adjust their withdrawals if needed in order to be prudent. (I suppose what's unstated here is that most retirees are not wealthy. If they were rich, they'd not worry about this stuff at all, eh?) TRP offers a little test. Where do YOU fall on the continuum?
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/spenders-vs-savers-how-to-determine-your-retirement-spending-personality.html?cid=PI_Single_Topic_NonSubscriber_RET_EM_202210&bid=1099700455&PlacementGUID=em_PI_PI_Single_Topic_EM_NonSubscriber_202210-PI_Single_Topic_NonSubscriber_RET_EM_202210_20221006&b2c-uber=u.C70CEE71-16A5-E6FF-FF67-9E86F48AE56B
  • 2% swr
    Hmmmmmm. I have an additional question: The lion's share of our stuff is all in T-IRA. Reported income (SS and Defined Benefit pension) puts us in a "no tax due" status in terms of our 1040. My annual withdrawals from the T-IRA are small enough so that we still owe no tax due. And in a declining market, I will simply not take my customary annual withdrawals. But RMDs will surely have to be paid. (starting at age 72 now, right? 4 years from now, for me.) Does a conversion to Roth make any sense at all for us? Wife is 19 years younger. Her T-IRA is just 5% of our combined total. And after I'm gone, her plan is to move back to her home country. We have a house there already. Expenses will be ridiculously low---- except for the constant begging from the extended family.
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    They are yielding a bit higher to compensate for the higher risk (being callable). JPMorgan’s CDs are often callable too. The risk is the interest rates suddenly drop which is unlikely in the next 12 months.
  • 5% CD at Fido (Jonesboro State Bank)
    A milestone of sorts....the first time I've seen a 5% CD in a few decades. Fido offers a new 13 year CD from Jonesboro State Bank with a 5% coupon, but it's callable (not protected). Pays interest MONTHLY.
  • JPMorgan Small Cap Equity Fund re-opening to all investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312522258615/d252223d497.htm
    497 1 d252223d497.htm JPMORGAN TRUST I
    J.P. MORGAN U.S. EQUITY FUNDS
    JPMorgan Small Cap Equity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    (a series of JPMorgan Trust I)
    (All Share Classes)
    Supplement dated October 6, 2022
    to the current Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information, as supplemented
    Effective October 28, 2022, the Fund will no longer be subject to a limited offering, and all limited offering disclosure relating to the Fund will be deleted.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE
    SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES, PROSPECTUSES AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
    INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-SCE-1022
    The fund has been closed to most new investors since December 30, 2016.
  • Commentary
    https://www.ft.com/content/5b4bd18f-cc40-4542-a025-6190f898a406
    "Wall Street finds a tax silver lining in down market
    Banks are helping wealthy clients to sell investments at a loss to lighten their bills
    "
    In the MFO, on Sunday.
    In The FT today.
    You are welcome :)
  • Are you checking your portfolio too often?
    Interesting responses. Thanks. With millions of ordinary folks daily pulling up their portfolios on every conceivable device, gardening wouldn’t be the first thing I’d think of. Appears to me more like a tortuous high speed race track with some cars occasionally running off the edge, rolling over and burning …
    For @Mark, @Catch22, @Crash and others who liken portfolios to gardens, here’s a great opening scene from “On a Clear Day You Can See Forever” (1970) with a very young and lovely Barbara Streisand.

  • Possible Bears market resolution
    Good morning
    Lots folks on wakstreet/pubdits saying after the last few days, we maybe coming to bear market resolution
    -Higher highs past few days
    - Powell /CB maybe easing off a little ( uncle P speaking again today) , lots folks expecting couple more hikes 0.75 and. 25 w QT Ease off after new year.
    -Inflation leaked last month and maybe recessing
    - After yesterday afterhour closures, signals showed Momentum/thrusts and market breadths maybe strong ( more than 85% stock positives 72hrs, strong closures 48 hrs ago, and 100% stocks positives yesterday)
    - transportation etf, small caps etf, Nasdaq showed momentum upswings, they are usually the ones getting out gate first
    Any thoughts on these subjects?
    Lots folks maybe wrong but there could be lights at end of tunnel
    What maybe on your buy lists for potential next bull market _ growth etf funds and growth stocks? Or more bond funds w next bull cycles. These are just my thoughts but I could be wrong. I maybe cheerleader for bear market resolution, but so much suffering since late fall 2021.
    Looking add potential more bonds for mama portfolio ( not much UST Or CD /US_DOLLARS, CASH, these are so high now)
    Then again maybe not... Feds still full-streams ahead today with expected 1.5% raise next new months, until the jobs number cracked and we have a real economic crisis
    Thankyou