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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Precious metals are breaking out
    I must admit investing in gold and or silver doesn’t seem to make sense. I’ve seen videos of high profile investors (Schiff) swearing by it but I can’t grasp it’s usefulness.
    1. Gold doesn’t seem to have done much in the last decade especially when compared to the stock market.
    2. I don’t understand how it would be useful in an emergency. For instance, if I buy $50!worth of groceries the denominations of are much more.
    3. If I needed to sell, say $100,000 worth of gold, could I sell it quickly?
    4. As far as silver goes, it seems it would need to be stored as it’s value is not as valuable as gold.
    I’ve thought of investing in gold but it seems there is more negative articles on it than positive.
  • The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund reopening to new investors
    That profile rang a bell. As I recall, what used to be Buffalo Science and Technology Fund (BUFTX) had a similar profile. Though in its newer incarnation (Discovery) it's a more typical MCG fund.
    I did a very quick M* search for tech (40%+) and healthcare (20%+) and came up with 23 funds heavy in these two sectors. Some results (keep in mind this is a very superficial screen):
    ICTEX: tech 49%, healthcare 51% (tech fund)
    RSIFX: tech 55%, healthcare 32% (tech fund)
    USSCX: tech 57%, healthcare 27% (tech fund)
    PVIVX: tech 47%, healthcare 29% (SC blend)
    ARTSX: tech 45%, healthcare 33% (SC growth)
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    Yogi: "Many banks also offer unusual 11-mo, or 13-mo CDs as those one-time deals may not show up on industry wide 12-mo, 18-mo, 24-mo offering data."
    Yep, I do my banking at Capital One, and that bank offers those types of CDs. I hold enough money at Capital One for liquidity objectives, and for very small CDs, whereas I choose to hold much larger amounts of CDs at Schwab. At Schwab, I hold a large amount of money for a CD laddering systen. I also have the option of using Schwab money market funds, that pay as much or more than most CDs at private banks, as holding accounts for CD monies that mature. At Schwab I have the option of immediately reinvesting in CDs, or holding for investing in other options. I traditionally have invested in Bond OEFs, but for now I don't choose to ride the roller coaster of bond oef investing, so I use CDs in a laddering system, along with high paying Money Market options.
  • The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund reopening to new investors
    As the tech and healthcare sectors go, so goes this fund. Those two sectors--tech, 61%, and healthcare, 30%--represent 91% of its portfolio.
  • The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund reopening to new investors
    Off to a good start in 2023, but arguably one of the very worst SCG funds over the past 5 years.
    Period: % in Category
    1-yr: 92%
    3-yr: 99%
    5-yr: 95%
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    Brokered CD rates may be up because many banks find it easier and cheaper to raise funds via brokered CDs (although the FDIC is watching) than through the new Fed BTFP facility and the old Fed Discount Window - those seem to have stabilized (see below from Twitter LINK).
    Many banks also offer unusual 11-mo, or 13-mo CDs as those one-time deals may not show up on industry wide 12-mo, 18-mo, 24-mo offering data.
    image
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    @MSF. thanks for your thoughts. The AEI is not on my reading list. My take on denialism is simply that here and on other boards the very possibility of default is hardly discussed, not that it wouldn’t be horrible. I guess as Martha Reeves would say” nowhere to run to baby, no where to hide.” And that was in 1965.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    Remember that the 2011 downgrade by the S&P came a few days AFTER the debt-ceiling issue had been resolved by the Congress and the President. It seemed that some S&P committee was on a roll to the US downgrade recommendation. Mr McGraw said at the time that things were out of his control/hands. The after-storm not only created a transient market event but also consumed what used to McGraw-Hill at the time. The book/magazine publishing businesses were sold to private equity, and after the trade publications and consumer survey businesses were also sold, the remainder eventually became S&P Global/SPGI (as it is now).
    At the time, the other rating agencies (Moody's/MCO, Fitch) just decided to wait and watch. A concern now is that one of these may now do the downgrade this time.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    The only solution I see is if 5 or so Republicans who were elected from blue districts cross over to vote with Dems to raise the ceiling… There has been some quiet discussion of this happening
    Discussion may have been quiet, but a proposal that would suspend the debt ceiling until the end of the year and includes additional work was announced yesterday by the Problem Solvers Caucus.
    https://problemsolverscaucus.house.gov/media/press-releases/problem-solvers-caucus-endorses-bipartisan-debt-ceiling-framework
    As I understand how this group (evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans) functions, all members commit "to vote for anything that’s endorsed by 75 percent of their caucus". That currently includes 31 House Republicans, well above the 5 or so needed.
    That's likely why the press release states that their proposal "has the support of more than 75% of Problem Solvers Caucus members".
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    Default denialism as generally used is the idea that a default wouldn't be harmful. It was discussed to death in 2011 and 2013, e.g.
    American Enterprise Institute - The Foolish Idea of Default Denialism - "A craze is sweeping the nation, the idea that failing to raise the debt limit would not be an abomination." (2013). Also cited by Barry Ritzholtz.
    The lack of responses to your question "where to hide?" is not necessarily due to people viewing a default as a highly improbable hypothetical (even hypotheticals can be useful to consider). Rather you may be getting few responses because IMHO there are no good answers.
    As sma3 expressed, the potential consequences are so extreme that they would either be (if possible) reversed immediately or your question about where to keep investments would become the least of your worries.
    @sven - your links lead right back to your post (message 60984 in this thread). While it is true that the stock market fell following the S&P downgrade in 2011, the Treasury bond market rallied.
    NPR - Developing: In Wake Of S&P Downgrade, U.S. Stocks Tumble (Aug 8, 2011)
    Update at 12:57 p.m. ET. Treasury Bonds Rally:
    The Wall Street Journal reports that despite the S&P downgrade, Treasury bonds are still selling briskly and the 10-year yield has fallen o the lowest level since October:
    The price move underlines the dilemma confronting investors varying from the Chinese central bank to pension funds—there are few alternative safe-haven assets out there that can match the depth and liquidity of the Treasury market, with over $9.3 trillion in debt outstanding.
    As observed in the AEI piece cited above, the bond market fell as actual default neared. But not as a result of any ratings agency actions.
  • The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund reopening to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/869351/000183988223010046/small-497_042023.htm
    497 1 small-497_042023.htm SUPPLEMENT DATED APRIL 20, 2023
    BROWN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT MUTUAL FUNDS
    The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund
    BCSIX - Investor Shares
    BCSSX - Institutional Shares
    Supplement dated April 20, 2023 to The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund’s Summary Prospectuses, Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information all dated August 1, 2022
    This Supplement is to give notice that effective May 1, 2023, The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund will be re-opened to new investors. Accordingly, the section of the Prospectuses and Summary Prospectuses titled “Special Note Regarding The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund” is hereby removed from the Prospectuses and the Summary Prospectuses of the Fund. Shares of The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund may be purchased as described in the Fund’s current Prospectuses, Summary Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information.
    For additional information concerning how to purchase Shares of The Brown Capital Management Small Company Fund, please call the Fund toll-free at 1.877.892.4BCM.
    Brown Capital Management Mutual Funds
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • What Beat the S&P 500 Over the Past Three Decades? Doing Nothing
    I once read an interesting quote about rebalancing, I forget from who. Basically it said rebalancing can be like digging out your flowers and watering the weeds.
    Sounds like Buffett was quoting Peter Lynch.
    To rebalance or not rebalance? That is the question …
    I’d say it depends on age, purpose, resources and what you’re trying to accomplish.
    Related thought - Do folks give any thought as to why they select each holding for inclusion in their portfolios in the first place? Surely, they did their homework, gave it a lot of thought, and had confidence in each holding’s long term potential. If it merited inclusion at a specified weighting then, why change your mind because it hasn’t “grown” as much as the other investments? Not everything moves in the same direction all of the time.
    Is cash a “weed”? Likely over time your equity holdings will outdistance your cash / fixed income holdings. That’s how it’s supposed to work. Following Lynch’s thinking would mean not trimming profits and rebalancing into cash. Buffet talks a good line. I don’t know of anyone who has enunciated so much thought in so few words time and time again as he - except perhaps for Benjamin Franklin. Neither, I suspect, has always hewed 100% to their stated dictum.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    @Sven. + 10! “ Does anyone follow the debt ceiling debate?” Thank you for bringing this up. I started a thread in Feb. about default denialism. The country, this board, my family,,, still in denial. X date is getting closer and the government is not getting closer to a resolution. I am starting to consider a major portfolio realignment because I am of an age where I don’t have years to wait for recovery. Problem is I am not at all certain where to hide. I am thinking that with the possibility of an economic slow down increasing and the likelihood of default increasing it might not be a bad time to be out of the market. But where to hide? Anyway,,,,thanks Sven for asking the right question.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    I don't really follow the debt ceiling debate, but with such an un-stabilizing group in Washington I have been trying to prepare for it by the way of increasing my gold percentage. I've been adding periodically in 2023. I don't believe waiting for dips which may never fit your criteria. That can leave you on the side lines. I try to use the old @rono momentum procedure.
    FWIW, I'm to chicken to put a huge percentage into a momentum play, so my ceiling at this point is 10% of my self managed holdings in IAU.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    Another puzzle is an unusually high spread of 121 bps for 1m-3m T-Bills. April started out with more normal 20 bps spread. Something is fishy with the liquidity.
    Earlier estimates for debt-ceiling drop-dead date were in August, but weak tax receipts may have moved it to June.
  • Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
    Does anyone follow the debt ceiling debate? The deadline is June 2023 and that is less than 2 months away. The default of US treasury is unthinkable. But it came close when S&P downgraded US a treasury from AAA to AA+ while Moody’s and Fitch, have decided not to downgrade the government at this time. Market fell accordingly the following days.
    Moody’s and Fitch, have decided not to downgrade the government at this time.
    Another piece I read this morning,

    Spreads on U.S. five-year credit default swaps - market-based gauges of the risk of a default - widened to 49 basis points, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed, more than double the level they stood at in January.
    A showdown over U.S. government efforts to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for the world's largest economy have sent jitters through global financial markets.
    JPMorgan said in a note published late Wednesday it expected the debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May, and that the debate over both the ceiling and the federal funding bill would run "dangerously close" to final deadlines.
    Debt ceiling jitters lift US credit default swaps to highest since 2011
  • Are fund prices currently messed up on various trackers?
    This started last evening when 1 of my 2 tracking apps sent out a message from the administrator that they were unable to obtain day-end prices from Yahoo, but that we could go into settings and change our price source to Google. I did that with a couple holdings but didn’t resolve issue. Both of my main tracking apps and also some free online services are still showing varying prices and performance for identical funds this morning.
    Anybody else encounter issues with yesterday’s quotes? PRPFX is the one I’ve worked on. One tracker has it $47.98, a 5 cent gain. The other says $48.09, a 16 cent gain. MSN Money (Bing) shows currently $47.93, with no reference to the last daily move. If just that 1 fund, I wouldn’t mind. But several others are affected.
    Added later - CNBC is at 47.93 (PRPFX) which agrees with MSN Money, but neither tracking app. M* also says 47.93 and down 0.33%. And Google now has $47.93. Looks like both of my tracking apps are screwed up.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/19/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/19/23
    For the week ending on 4/19/23, neutral remained the top sentiment (37.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (35.1%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -7.9% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (60+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar up. An unusually high 1m-3m T-Bill spread points to some liquidity issue developing. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1016/thread
  • Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund to be liquidated
    There was a related filing earlier on 3/20/23 on multi-asset VPGDX merger into moderate-allocation (fund of index funds) VSMGX that also outlined these steps: Liquidation of VG Alternative Strategies on/around 4/19/23, distribution of any related CGs, and then the completion of VPGDX + VSMGX merger by 5/19/23.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/736054/000168386323002318/f24738d1.htm