Also from Twitter and Carson Investment Research on the prior four occasions the S@P was up an average 19.1% and 33.2% six and twelve months later. I am finding Twitter is filled with great research by some fabled analysts with decades of experience. But not sure of its value in the real world. Lots of curve fitted data mining there. Time will tell if this latest signal proves anywhere near as profitable as in the past. Heaven knows that since the June lows there have been an abundance of indicators saying the next six and twelve months will see outsized gains.

Today was a lot nastier than the index numbers reveal. My GNMA fund fell over 1%. Rare. Banks continued to get slaughtered. Many down over 30% YTD. Due to both the inverted curve plus fed’s (regulators) making noise about higher capital reserve requirements for large regionals.
Egads! (my “sentiment” reading)
Added - As of yesterday TRP’s conservative allocation fund PRSIX was off -14.37% YTD. Can’t imagine today helped it any. (Off a cool 15% YTD after Thursday)

Interesting. It was 3/8 or 3/9 2009 that the terrible bear market ended. A Monday or Tuesday as I recall. The 5th (lowest sentiment reading) was probably the Friday before. I phoned Oakmark and D&C on Friday to get instructions for Roth conversions. (Had run out of dry powder. New approach needed.) Completed the paperwork over the weekend. Mailed them both “next day delivery” on Monday. Missed the bottom by 1 day …
Oh shucks!

I already mentioned that the Survey was the most negative since 3/5/2009 (memorable SP500 at 666 on 3/9/09). Also this week was among the 5 worst sentiments since the Survey inception in 1987.
Being a contrarian indicator, the Survey is significant at extreme levels.

Stocks are still somewhat expensive based on historical PE ratio. Plus, the outlook for future earnings (due to recession) is now in question.
https://multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 19.03 -0.12 (-0.60%) 1:38 PM EDT, Thu Sep 22
Mean: 15.98
Median: 14.90
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.73 (May 2009)
In general, Bonds outlook may look rosier at end of 4Q 2022. Just not quite yet.
Stocks could look a bit better by then, too, if the current trend continues. Cash (earning closer to 4% range) may be king.

It's kind of shocking that if companies of Uber's size can get hacked by an 18-year-old--https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/19/how-to-fix-another-uber-breach/--that investors aren't more concerned about security issues. I agree regarding the convenience of not getting multiple statements from each boutique fund company, multiple tax forms, multiple estate issues to resolve, multiple application forms to fill out, multiple everything to link and expose to a potential breach. But I also think having everything at one institution may not be wise either. Some sort of Goldilocks balance is nice. But perhaps I've watched too much Mr. Robot.

What is he recommending to get the 9%? The article is behind a paywall.

Not sure about that article specifically, but in his webcast a week ago, his emphasis was on Treasuries and agency issues delivering bigtime after Fed rate raises are ~ over. For the latter, he said his flagship fund DBLTX was buying beaten-down agencies yielding > 5%.
I'd guess that projecting 9% would have to include capital gains when the Fed's done, (if) the economy has slowed, and investors dive into Ts thinking rates have peaked.
As I mentioned in another thread, it's worth recalling that his old TCW fund and the then-new DBLTX made a mint for investors after 2008.
So did Pimco Income, by the way. It'll be interesting to see what Pimco's saying about the opportunities they see in the near future.

Hi Wxman123
He did not say
***Now, is an excellent time to buy bonds. Because nobody wants to buy bonds, according to him, a bank loan fund would be a good investment for investors with low-risk tolerance. He said there is a 300 bps difference between short-term and long-term rates. If the Fed raises interest rates to 4%, investors can return 7% but buy less than 95 bonds with a default rate of less than 1%.
Gundlach sees an easy way to make money right now, but that could change if the Fed cuts interest rates to zero.***
My hunches are invest in his funds or buy JNK HYLD Etf junkies bonds prob similar or better returns without extravaganza fees and they been beaten down badly last 9-12 months

Not the answer in my case as both ATW & ATT show the same amount. @wxman123 : Could you inform me as to when this margin charge showed up ? I see $6 fee, that's all.
Also T+2 didn't take place.

For the week ending on 9/21/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (60.9%; extremely high; highest since 3/5/09) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (17.7%; extremely low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (21.4%; low); Bull-Bear Spread was -43.2% (extremely low; lowest since 3/5/09). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (+75 hike yesterday & 100-125 bps more hikes in 2022); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (partial mobilizations in Russia; 30+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=783

+1 Perfectly sums up why I've used Fidelity as my main brokerage since 1993 !

No wonder why Woods screaming ****rate halt ...deflation*** past few wks. She maybe couple months early
So many folks lost $$ these days
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/she-never-explained-anything-im-a-senior-citizen-and-i-lost-100-000-in-the-stock-market-this-year-can-i-sue-my-financial-adviser-11663719152?mod=quentin-fottrell
Dear Quentin,
I am a senior citizen and have suffered major losses to the tune of $100,000 in the recent stock market turmoil. Can I sue my financial adviser? I understand the dynamics of the market as far as its ups and downs, and have ridden them out before.
However, it’s been different with the market in this timeframe insofar as tech stocks are taking a major hit, as well as others. I advised my financial adviser I was heading into retirement months before all of this happened.
As my account was taking losses, she did nothing to warn me that given the current situation it might be a good idea to move my assets to another area to lessen the losses — and return at a later date when things have stabilized.
....

One fund to report - According to CNBC, ARKK is off -57.35%YTD and -65.56% for 1 year. Posted not to dump on Cathie, but to provide some perspective - ie: to show how much highly speculative, highly leveraged stocks have lost this year.

Highly speculative, but not highly leveraged. At least for now:

Currently, ARK's ETFs do not use any leverage. ARK ETFs aim to offer a moderate-to-high risk-reward profile, while leverage has the potential to increase volatility.

https://helpcenter.ark-funds.com/do-the-ark-etfs-use-any-leverage
Now if you really want to talk about leveraging, there's ARK3 (ARKK 3x leverage).
It started the year at $4.164, and is now selling for 12.48¢. You do the arithmetic; it's too depressing.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARK3.L?p=ARK3.L

And BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market EFT) is down -12.57% YTD.
BND

Hi sir Derf -not sure about ust bonds but Corp bonds usually 5 or 10 bucks transactions fee without margin fees per 5k 10k I think w vanguard or schwab (margin fees usually calculate at end of month)
For us they put it the final product/amounts after closure into margin acct to close the deals (before settlement date) unless you have more cash in account than the actual bonds + commissions + forcasted partial divs paid before actual divs date
From vanguard***
A separate commission is charged for each security bought or sold. Orders that execute over multiple days are charged separate commissions. In addition, a separate commission is charged for each order placed for the same security on the same side of the market (buying or selling) on the same day. Orders that are changed by the client and executed in multiple trades on the same day are charged separate commissions. These commission and fee schedules are subject to change.***

End of day, Wednesday 9/21
YTD:
Dow Jones -16.94%
S&P 500 -20.48%
NASDAQ -28.28%
One fund to report - According to CNBC, ARKK is off -57.35%YTD and -65.56% for 1 year. Posted not to dump on Cathie, but to provide some perspective - ie: to show how much highly speculative, highly leveraged stocks have lost this year.

If you go by the chart of the Fed members' expectations/judgments, most of the increases will likely be done by the end of the year ... at ~ 4.4%.
Not that they're always right on the money, to put it charitably. There's a lot of water yet to run under the bridge before the new year.

Real rates to rise across the board
Are you talking about rates for all maturity Treasuries, or various Fed rates (discount rate, Fed funds, ...), or something else? Certainly real rates will rise as inflation declines, unless the cure is worse than the disease and we head toward a significant recession. Then nominal rates could follow inflation down.
The 10 year matters to me because I've been pushing my building to take a cap improvement loan at 5.5%, locked now, as opposed to waiting and taking a more conventional loan at (2.5% + 10 year rate) that doesn't lock until funded months down the road.
FWIW, here's Goldman Sach's prediction for the 10 year rate, as of yesterday. Given the FOMC announcement was as expected, I figure this is still GS's prediction.
https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-10-year-treasury-yields-forecast/