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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Alger Small Cap Focus Fund to resume sales
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3521/000119312522246470/d361298d497.htm
    497 1 d361298d497.htm ALGER SMALL CAP FOCUS FUND - CLASS AC,I,Y,Z
    THE ALGER FUNDS
    Alger Small Cap Focus Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated September 16, 2022 to the
    Summary Prospectuses and Prospectuses of the Fund
    dated March 1, 2022, as amended and supplemented to date
    Effective July 31, 2019, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of The Alger Funds authorized a partial closing of the Fund. On September 13, 2022, the Board determined it would be in the best interest of Fund shareholders to resume sales of shares of the Fund to all qualifying investors. Therefore, effective or about October 17, 2022, the Fund’s Class A, C, I, Y and Z shares will be available to all qualifying investors.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Thanks, Yogi, for the additional color. Most fund companies have very high dividend (albeit variable) yields. Schwab's div yield (1.25%) is well below that of SPY, not to mention XLF. I am not sure comparing Schwab stock performance with other fund companies stock is appropriate, given its low AUM, low margin fund business, but I do not know what is an appropriate comparison for Schwab as i have not looked into the drivers of its financials statements.
    Schwab bank is certainly a high way robbery and Schwab brokerage facilitates the bank with no sweep MM funds.
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    Here's one attempt at calculating the effective tax rate of the wealthiest Americans over time: https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/effective-income-tax-rates-have-fallen-top-one-percent-world-war-ii-0
    Because of all the loopholes, it's a difficult endeavor, but one thing hard to ignore is that the effective rate has gone down significantly, from as much as 50% in 1945 to 25% more recently for the richest in this particular study.
  • 1-Yr T-Bill Yield Print 4.00% Today
    +1
    All true OJ. A guess would be it has to do with the speed of change (in rates). Over time people will get used to 6% mortgages or higher if their income / net worth keep pace.
    I well remember the 60s / 70s as a teen age “nerd” who subscribed to U.S. News & World Report at 15 and normally read it twice on a weekend. You may recall that the dollar weakened considerably over those inflationary years as cost of living rose from maybe 5% in the 60s to double-digit by the late 70s. Not to be overlooked, gold soared from $35 to over $800 by the mid 70s. Houses appreciated nicely and just about everybody in the world agreed they were the best investments.
    We baby boomers “goosed” the home buying frenzy helping push up interest rates. By contrast, equity investing lagged by about a decade but took off in the 70s as I recall. Once we had our homes, new cars (and in some cases kids) we began investing for retirement. My first home in the late 70s carried something like a 10-11% fixed rate mortgage. As my income kept pace - based on COL adjustments plus “stepping” (increases based on years service) - that interest rate didn’t seem onerous.
    So, simply put - It takes time for consumers and markets to adjust to new realities. I think in a plane what we’re witnessing right now might be called “bow shock.”
  • 1-Yr T-Bill Yield Print 4.00% Today
    My mortgage in late-1970s was at 10.75%. Those were different times. Real estate cap rates were quite high then. Valuations now are much higher for everything. Even the T-Bills are approaching the cap rate, thanks to the Fed, Twitter LINK.
    image
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @johnN, while Stockcharts shows RSI(14) for $UST2Y, etc, it isn't really important. You are locking in yield at purchase to maturity, and for ST (up to 5 yrs), you can just hold on to maturity. See a nearby thread on $UST1Y at 4%.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcxuvmNXEAEa_3t?format=jpg&name=medium
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Especially sir ust 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr IMHO so expensive rsi severely high
    Maybe wrong end of trade if keep buying them
    Maybe good buy small portions dca spy iwm and wait 12 36 months
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @Baseball_Fan Most of the evidence I've seen is that the increase in SNAP payments has been a response to not a cause of food inflation. People are having trouble making ends meet. Show me definitive evidence otherwise. There is corruption on every level of society, but trotting out the old welfare queen stereotype--"are able bodied, of sound mind, lazy bums looking for a handout"-- from Reagan's 1980s seems a little cliche, does it not? I would say the corruption at the highest levels of wealth and power exceeds the corruption on the lowest levels in an order of magnitude.
    Meanwhile, the mythology revolving around tax rates--I've heard that old "more loopholes back then" argument before--also rings false. There have been plenty of loopholes since tax rates of all sorts on the wealthy started plummeting in the 1980s. The effective tax rate for many wealthy individuals and giant corporations with loopholes in the U.S. has been far lower than the top tax rate for a long time. As the tax code has grown increasingly complex with each year, why would there be more loopholes in the past than the present time? Show me evidence.
    Stating the fact that price gouging exists in business is a sign that someone "doesn't understand basic economics" seems to emerge from someone who doesn't understand basic economics. In every industry there are price takers where markets are highly competitive and price makers where markets are more monopolistic and not as competitive. Price makers often gouge their customers. Witness the gouging on the life-saving allergy medicine EpiPen, which when Mylan acquired its production rights jacked up its price from $100 per dose to $600 a dose: https://beasleyallen.com/article/pfizer-to-pay-345-million-for-epipen-price-gouging-scandal/. Why? Because they could. As the exclusive maker of the drug, they were a price maker with a monopoly. Now witness what the U.S. oil industry is doing today. The breakeven cost of oil production in the U.S. today is $56 a barrel: https://rigzone.com/news/what_oil_price_do_cos_need_to_profitably_drill_in_usa-25-mar-2022-168396-article/ Yet they're currently charging $85 a barrel. Why? Because they can. With the supply from Russia cut off, U.S. oil companies can now be price makers instead of takers. So they are gouging. It's the reason why their stocks are so high.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...Baseball Fan
    @Baseball_Fan - I’m trying to cut through your rambling macro analysis. Would you please address some of the following questions? Best Wishes
    “Curious … Do you think the technicals … ”
    What technicals? Not everyone uses technical analysis. Please identify which “technicals” you watch and base your investment decisions on? I’ve tried to help out by listing a few common technical indicators below:
    - Moving Averages
    - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
    - Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)
    - Bollinger Bands
    - Volume
    - Exponential Moving Average
    - Money Flow Index
    “ … would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets”
    Over what period of time? Do you have a source verifying this will be completed within a definite time period? It took over a decade for the Federal Reserve to amass their bond holdings, beginning with the near depression that threatened the economy between 2007 and 2009.
    “and the impact on stonks” (sic?)
    Not all stocks are the same. Financials? Commodities? Growth? Domestic or foreign? Also omitted here is any reference to time frame. Do you mean by the end or 2022 or are your concerns related to further out (5-10 years)?
    “rate hikes”
    Why would you consider rate hikes to be bad for equities? Financials tend to do very well when longer term rates rise. It is true that the most speculative areas tend to suffer as the cost of borrowing increases. (However, many are already down 50-70% this year.) But it’s not as cut & dry as you would have us believe. Rates have been extremely low for many years now. Bound to rise some day. Yet you and many others have over that time invested in equities for the long term - even knowing rates would someday rise. What changed?
    “the impact of policy errors”
    That’s a sweeping assertion based it seems on conjecture. Please explain why that risk is higher now than in March 2020 (the covid related financial crisis) or March 2009 (the beginning of the last bull market). Policy errors can occur at any point in time. So can other negative factors like war, political chaos, natural disaster. As investors in companies we’re accustomed to accepting those risks.
    “inflation continuing on and on … “
    Says who? Do you have some psychic in mind who can forecast inflation years out?
    “(Will) the fed pivot any time soon … ?”
    What particular “pivot” are you referencing? After you explain that, please explain why an equity investor should base long term decisions on this ill defined hypothetical concept.
    “inflation still running so hot”
    That’s redundant as you referenced it above. Here you seem to prophesy inflation will remain “so hot” ? … There’s no definitive way I know of to confirm / predict the level of inflation 1, 2 or 3 years out. Shall we base our long term equity investment decisions on such speculation?
    “even hotter in reality than what the gov’t says it is …”
    Isn’t this something folks have long ragged about on this forum and elsewhere? There’s been numerous threads over the years examining the various inflation measures (there are several). So, you’re entitled to your prejudice on that point. But why do you find the discrepancy between your own numbers and what the Federal Bureau of Statistics determines to be of greater importance today than it was 3 years ago or 10 years ago?
    “that 4% 1 year TBill looks puffy good to me right now”
    Good. Glad you find TBills a good investment for your needs. Bear in mind that’s for just 1 year. Equity investors by nature are investing for much longer periods. Contemplate that if you harvest your 4% TBill a year from now, you might find that stocks in general have appreciated more than 4%. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think they might. (Some I own move 4% in a single day.) In such case, you will have lost ground and possibly face buying in to equities than at a net loss. If inflation is running as “hot” as you think, why are you comfortable with just 4%?
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @LewisBraham,
    Geez man chill...I can see I need to more clearly articulate my viewpoint...
    For the record, I have no issue with and 100% support Food Stamps or helping out the less fortunate or those who caught a bad break...all in on that. No where did I state that Food Stamps is the main reason for inflation, only that the Grifter's increasing the program by 25% did contribute to food inflation. It did.
    What I am completely against are able bodied, of sound mind, lazy bums looking for a handout. I'm against folks driving their late model SUV to the food bank. Ya F that. Who knows maybe Biden can transfer some of those IRS agents to look into welfare fraud too...oh you say that it not reality? BS, I've heard folks talking about how to game the welfare system..."oh, go ahead, they dont check..."
    The corporate gouging comment is right out of the Liz Warrent Kool Aid talking point manifest...someone who actually believes this either has never run any kind of business or doesn't understand basic economics.
    The comments about how Orange Man bailed out the rich....you also mean to include bailed out the stonk market so the pension plans wouldn't go bankrupt too correct? (For the record, I wouldn't have bailed out the markets, let it do what it needs to do). You never mentioned how the Grifter in the White House has spent what 3X with his policies compared to Orange. And wanted to spend even more...oy vey!
    Fact is The Grifter's energy policy/rhetoric was driving inflation higher BEFORE the Russian invasion...the increase in Food Stamps increased the price of food for everyone include the recipients of the aid.
    Let's get to the charts...Please riddle me this...while I believe those tax rates are accurate, I submit that NO ONE, or very few actually paid anywhere close to those rates as there were more loopholes back then is the way I understand it...what did folks actually pay, NOT what were the tax rates...
    The second chart, I consider this a no duh...the USA had their factories virtually untouched after WW2...the rates should go down to stimulate the economy, compete on an ever increasing competitive global economy with many other countries companies being subsidized.
    So again, the main point I was trying to make/ask was/is that policy can drive inflation and overcome rate hikes.
    Take care,
    Baseball Fan
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    In the -$95 billion/mo QT (full level starting mid-September), -$60 billion/mo in Treasuries can just roll-off, but -$35 billion/mo in MBS may not be from roll-off alone, so the Fed may actually have to sell MBS. The mortgage rates are already above 6%. This may not be priced in as there isn't much history or experience with QT (Fed doesn't claim that it knows).
    https://apnews.com/article/inflation-mortgages-mortgage-rates-90d3b63fe4dd8b81d6765375d403cb8e
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi Sir Baseball fans
    Think everything maybe priced in... Mr Market know 95b QT restrictions for several wks now since Uncle Powell spoke few months ago before Jackson Hole. IMHO Feds maybe slow down first then maybe pivot in 4 6 months next spring but maybe not right away... Lots pundits screaming deflationary actions soon (least we see lots supplies at major retail chains causing them slash prices, woods timber took big hits, over supplies oil also large 20s% haircuts, less demands for silver copper/commodities because of recession/expect severe global economic slow down next yr, and China economy continued shut down from c19 (perhaps late fall winter too) .. Lots economists expert expect inflation may slow down in the near future then stay above 4% until late 2023.... Think next cpi forcast is expect lowered than 8.1%
    I think slv copper charts look very good (? Bottom consolidation) but we don't know if prices could be slashed further down in 4 6 wks
    Cathy Woods/ Musk screaming deflationary soon but who really knows
    Friends say feds may pivot sp500 slashed below 3500 and inflation cooled off
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @johnN,
    Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    Schwab fund AUM is $610 billion, decent but not huge. Schwab has hesitated in growing its fund business so as not to be in conflict with its RIA platform. It has focused on indexed and differentiated fund products (fundamental-funds, etc).
    Schwab Bank is profitable. In fact, Schwab relies on higher % of cash allocation that is held at Schwab Bank to offer its "no-fee" robo-advisor. It was fined for too aggressive marketing of these - it paid fines and made some minor ad changes. It also offers a flat-fee version of robo-advisor.
    https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/about
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @larryB, individual TIPS held to maturity (at brokerages or Treasury Direct) should follow the CPI ($$CPI) less the premium/discount at purchase. TIPS mutual funds have many other drivers; in the chart, ST STIP and VTIP are almost indistinguishable; IT/LT TIP is the worst.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=STIP,$$CPI,TIP&id=p23210538339
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yesterday market after hr verything slightly pass critical 50d ma
    Let see if support hold end of day
    Lots big whales retail investors betting sp500 finish near 3950-4000 w puts calls quadruple witching day.... If no support below 3900 we may test June lower lows soon
    Sp500 near 3900 critical keys levels
    Equities appears cheaper again w this cycles rsi very low/very attractive prices, oil maybe screaming buys too... How low can we go though. UUP-USD, Ust2 yr ust5 yr ust 10 yr so expensive now.
    I added little more RIVN SOXL XLF SLV SP500 But very little yesterday
    Cryptos slight mixed morning hrs, not sure equities follow w market openings /rally later
    Big whales institutions holding record cash now maybe short squeezes rally follow soon??
    Lots hedgy managers /money managers saying Feds and QT/Demand destruction/ overshoot-deflation/Feds may pivot (slow down ease down gas paddles) soon in ?12 16 wks. Maybe 1% this time w another 0.25% hike next month then iddle in few months by Xmas.
    Who knows things may get better in 9 12 months?!!
    Ray Dalio Says Stocks Could Fall 20%. Here's What the Charts Say.
    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ray-dalio-says-stocks-could-fall-20-heres-what-the-charts-say?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo