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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Administrative nuisances with some financial institutions
    We have done Medallion Signature Guarantees at local banks recently, for Treasury Direct and other purposes. You may need to have an account at the bank(s) - another reason why to keep some local bank account(s), and not go online 100%.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    - I attempted to respond directly to @bee and his query of whether PRWCX would constitute a wise sole investment for a retiree already in the distribution phase. If others think that would be a good way to go, please let @bee know.
    - I’m aware of PRWCX’s excellent risk adjusted performance record. I owned the fund from 1995 until July 2022 when I exited as part of a broader consolidation of holdings.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    I reduced PRWCX and increased PRWAX at the beginning of 2021 with a thought that an impending rise in interest rates (end of some 40 yr declining interest rates) may dent PRWCX’s stellar risk adjusted performance when both equities and fixed income could suffer, especially given its size. Giroux so far proved me wrong. I am digressing but VDC (consumer staples) beat PRWCX in 2022 so far, which I did not see coming.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Young Giroux (only 31), a capital goods analyst (who had won an industry award for analysts) but without any prior fund management experience, and without much overlap with the previous managers of PRWCX, was given the responsibility for a major fund like PRWCX in 2006. Price obviously saw the potential, but it took time for others to realize that. Amazingly, Giroux has delivered SP500 like returns with only 60-70% equity exposure (but he takes more credit risks with his bonds); screenshot shows period 1/1/2006-now. So, it isn’t a conventional moderate-allocation fund, but a capital appreciation fund that seeks higher returns than its nominal equity exposure.
    image
  • Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno
    Think maybe bottom consolidate w this stock
    If day trade/few days trades - buy Monday set sale +5% +10%, auto sale
    After autosale --> repeat if you think stocks still upswings
    If long term sits for two yrs five yrs and may reach >40 50
    Imho stocks cycles every 3 months and may potential be +20 -30% every 3- 6 months amd may get 40s 50s in 16 19 months
    Have stop tight loss and sale if stocks drop >5% if day trade
    If long term you may not care if goes any lower
    Analysts say could be $55 in 12 months
    Volumes very low so not many interests becareful
    Good find
    If you look at $WTI Lots folks bought it large upswings momentum, head and shouler upswings, but seem very strong and rsi not reached >70 potential for another 5 7% upswings...macd also crosses over 7 9 days ago
    Just my humble options
    Eu banks/ eu economy in very bad shape now and may have more downswing.. could be another 10 15% down hard to say
    Don't loose$$
    Consider looking at few speakers in stockharts youtube representers videos you may learn lots about swing momentum trades
    Remember when you think you are good/correct and has good trades good winners,
    Market comes back and knock you off very bad...be very humble and expect win <35 40% of trades
  • Technical question? Or "Other Investing" question? I dunno
    I'm looking at this chart very simplistically (i.e. just the technicals) and I have have done zero point diddly fundamental analysis of the stock or company. The price seems to sit right where it was in June 2020. It nearly doubled from there by August of 2021 but has since retraced all of that gain and appears as though it wants to continue to advance to the rear. I mean it's barely trying to break the trend. The technical chart at StockCharts.com confirms this with a low RSI, trading far below it's 200dMA. It's also trading below its 50dMA and money is flowing out of the stock (CMF = Chaikin Money Flow). So 'technically' it's not a good time to be buying and I wouldn't consider investing until these indicators show signs of moving up (i.e. reversing).
    Having said that something 'fundamentally' could lead analysts to say it's worth your money and interest but you couldn't prove it by what the chart is technically indicating.
    Which is better?
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    David Giroux of PRWCX is only 47! He started with the fund when he was just 31 and for years people said that he was young and inexperienced but he showed them all.
    Hard to imagine anyone savvy would say such a thing; same age as Danoff and Tillinghast and their funds.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    David Giroux of PRWCX is only 47! He started with the fund when he was just 31 and for years people said that he was young and inexperienced but he showed them all.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_R._Giroux
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @bee, Never owned VWINX. Been tracking it all year and am very impressed. Steady Eddy if there ever was. As of yesterday it was down less than 7% YTD. One compeditor, PRSIX i like to track is off over 10% at this point. I guess there’s a roughly .50% difference in fees, which accounts for part, but not all, of that difference,
    Just watching PRWCX almost since inception I would consider it too risky to use as the sole ingredient in a retirement / staged withdrawal plan. But I’ve been taking aim at it for couple decades now and it continues to defy my worst forebodings. Look at virtually any other fund run by T. Rowe and you’ll find periods of overperformance and underperformance. But not this one - yet. Just rambling here. Hats off to Giroux for the job he’s done. One wonders who might replace him some day.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    I am little concerned w USA jobs market/ data Feds plans, recessions, uncontrolled inflation....
    I am more concerned w other parts of world - EU USSR and especially CHINA economy -housing bubble [??Lehman brothers 2.0) -c19 frequent recurrent Locks Downs -recession surely pull all of us down/sink whole global economy
    If that the case sp500 head toward 2900 Triple dip [april 2020, early 2022, and late 2022-2023)
    Sp500 severe resistance near below 3900 if breaks ...waterfall
  • Where is Randall Forsyth?
    He may be on vacation.
    Barron's new Editor has been doing lots of columnists rotations and Eric Savitz (normally, the Tech columnist) tried his hands on Up and Down Wall Street this week. He noted that this was his 1st time ever.
    Some columns have almost gone to alternate weeks - So, no Streetwise this week.
    Steven Sears is the lazy fellow for Options. He turns in his pieces Wed/Thursday and doesn't bother updating them whatever the subsequent news.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Despite the clobbering this week, most of the things I watch are still above the lows reached a month to 6 weeks ago. TROW is one good example, closing above $221 yesterday after bottoming around $213. While I no longer fiddle with DKNG, the current $16.00+ is well above the $10-12 where it bottomed 6-8 weeks ago. ARKK, too, is above its low for the year, even after falling around 6% yesterday.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @bee, I modified your PV run also for initial 4% ($4K/yr) level, initial 4% ($4K/yr) inflation-adjusted:
    Strategy, Ending balance, Notes
    4%, $218.731K, Withdrawal amounts variable; details by @bee
    4K level, $251.433K, More like an annuity
    4K infl-adj, $231.433K, Infl-adj annuity is rare commercially
    MFO doesn't preserve spacing.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Using Mutual Funds for Retirement Income
    I have posed this question to myself... could a fund... or funds serve as a funding source for inflation adjusted retirement income?
    Withdrawal Scenario:
    If a retiree started taking a 4% safe withdrawal rate from a $100,000 investment in PRWCX, how would this fund and the income withdrawn over time fare (3, 5,10, and 15 year) later? Portfolio Visualizer can't predict future returns, but it does allow a user to look back over stressful and successful market conditions.
    To stress test this scenario using PV, I add a market hurdle where by the retiree starts withdrawing from retirement savings at the end 2006. They buy $100,000 worth of PRWCX (or a portfolio of these types of funds) and began taking a 4% yearly withdrawal each year, from 2007 going forward ( 15 year time frame). Over the first two years of retirement, the "annuity portfolio" experienced a 41% loss in value as well as absorbed the required 4% income withdrawals (4% annuity payment). That's stressful.
    Questions:
    Over those first two years of retirement (2007 - 2009), the $100,000 portfolio (stand alone portfolio of just PRWCX) would have dropped to $63,000. Could a retiree hang in there through these first two years? The retiree's withdrawal rate of 4% may have started at $4,000 (4% of $100K), but as the portfolio dropped in value, their next year's withdrawal dwindle to a little less than $3,000 (4% of $63,00) in 2008. Having a cash/ ST bond component to this portfolio might provide a buffer...especially at the start of retirement.
    We have had an investment environment over the last 15 years that has included both monetary stimulus (QE and lowering interest rates) and market shocks (GFC, Covid, Supply disruptions and the rise interest rates). ISTM that a collection of well managed allocation funds could help individual investors balance the risks of the day with the rewards of the day.
    PRWCX seems successful at this. VWINX and VWELX are two others that I run retirement withdrawal scenarios with. Do you have a favorite? Maybe a collection of these would be a better approach. It would help reduce manager risk and might diversify manager strategies.
    Here's a link to Portfolio Visualizer where you could run some of your own scenarios:
    PRWCX as an Annuity
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Interest rate increases......of benefit to slow down inflation; OR whether that the FED had to do something to appear to be in control of whatever and doing it's work???
    --- What are the three tasks mandated to the Federal Reserve bank?
    It is the Federal Reserve's actions, as a central bank, to achieve three goals specified by Congress: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the United States.
    AND there is the dual mandate, which is often mentioned:
    The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is “stable prices” and “maximum employment,” referring to inflation and unemployment. It sounds complicated but means ensuring that the prices you pay for goods and services remain relatively stable over time and that everyone who wants a job in the U.S. economy can find one.
    The dual mandate represents the two economic objectives empowering the Federal Reserve’s every move. In other words, the Fed uses the federal funds rate rate to steer the economy toward its dual mandate, while also looking at it as an indication of whether it’s time to attempt to prop up the economy with a rate cut or slow it down with a rate hike.
    'Course, as with the market melt/financial crisis of 2008; the FED may become wholly involved with fixes, as needed.
    Inflation is global, yes? Two years of Covid impacted so many areas. A crazy Russian further impacted global inflation in the energy sectors. Climate extremes in many countries has also impacted food inflation.
    IMHO, it is an exaggeration to blame inflation on excessive fiscal support in the United States. Fiscal support was needed to "hand hold" our economic melt from Covid. Acting on its own, the FED can have only a limited effect on global prices; meaning inflation in the United States.
    Higher interest rates to force inflation to 2% ? How many portions of an economy will have to be broken to obtain 2% ?
    This is not Paul Volcker's inflation of the early 1980's. I've been there and done that, too.
    I remain skeptical of the FEDS plan.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Morningstar Discussion Groups: YBB Etal.
    They still exist. But many posters have departed due to repeated format/platform changes and increasingly user-UNfriendly nature of the M* forums.
    The M* TIAA forum is the only one going strong.
    M* DM/PM/Message system has been off for almost a MONTH now.
    Then, due to recent drastic changes in M* Portfolio (old) to terrible M* Investor (new), the M* forums now are full of complaint threads. I don't know if anyone at M* is even reading those.
    Investing https://community.morningstar.com/s/topic/0TO3o000001yV0JGAU/investing-forums
    General Layout https://community.morningstar.com/s/discussion-categories
  • Vanguard Funds Vs Vanguard Index Funds
    Nothing else is required
    Something rather important is required. The assumption that active management costs more than passive management. If I manage my portfolio myself, I am actively managing my assets with 0.00% assessed management costs. OTOH, if I invest passively, I'm paying someone something to determine what is in my passive portfolio and/or to execute it, unless I rely on a published index and personally buy and sell securities to track the index.
    The full statement by Sharpe was that:
    If "active" and "passive" management styles are defined in sensible ways, it must be the case that
    (1) before costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will equal the return on the average passively managed dollar and
    (2) after costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will be less than the return on the average passively managed dollar.
    These assertions will hold for any time period. Moreover, they depend only on the laws of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Nothing else is required.
    What may have appeared sensible in 1991 may not be so sensible in 2022. Now there are all sorts of esoteric high cost indexes and active ETFs having costs as low or sometimes lower than passive ETFs (e.g. the second and fourth lowest cost ultrashort term ETFs in M*'s table are actively managed - ICSH and VUSB).
    While it is likely true that actively managed dollars are still hit with higher fees (on average) than passively managed dollars, one can no longer show this merely by appealing to common sense as Sharpe did. (Though Sharpe did consider any fund actively managed if it did not cap-weight an entire market; thus, e.g. equal weighted index funds are by his definition actively managed.)