@hank
I dunno Mr Hank...I am not an expert for sure but for certain I am not sanguine on bonds
I anticpated the following possiblities, scenarios and potentially negative for bond holders
* China, Japan continue to unload US Treasuries
*QT
*In reality, and all political narrative BS aside...inflation continues to go up, product/services continue to go up...gas sure a little cheaper but just wait until after the mid-terms when we replenish strat stock piles at even higher prices
*Did I mention mid term elections? I did. Wait for it. The cancelation of student debt, so more money to buy weed and shitcoins and sporty event gamblings.
* Wait for it...next and unlike the prior statement I totally agree with, the discharge of medical debt
* Wait for it....a complete debt jubilee once the weathy cannot pay the note on their overpriced crappy $675,000 starter homes
*Who and how is anyone paying on the half empty commercial buildings
*WAYYY too much debt created over the past dozen years.
I can see laddering Tbills, 3 month, 6 month, 12 months...but everyting else...dunno, not for me
To me. Maybe a better allocation funds are the MAFIX, BLNDX...although I am not certain if they are just lucky with their timing, were in OIL/Energy, commodities, FX at the right time? MAFIX maybe better result but more balck boxy than BLDNX? Dunno. Maybe better 50/50 3 month Tbill and solid divy paying value fund, TWEIX like?
Good Luck to all,
Baseball Fan

op cit

Notably, we find that 1,050 out of 2,870 funds made a change to their prospectus benchmarks
at least once over a 13-year period. Because we collect data on funds’ benchmarks beginning
in 2005, the first year in which we can detect changes is 2006. The average fund in our sample
reports 1.44 benchmarks per year and makes 0.84 benchmark changes during our sample
period.

I'm glad they did the research. But there are a lot of other red flags out there like cost, load, turnover, manager investment, whether the company is publicly owned, etc.

Funds that make at least one benchmark
change make an average of 2.27 changes during this period, suggesting that there is a serial
component to this behavior. Funds making at least one benchmark change also report
significantly more benchmarks each year (1.74) than the group of funds that never makes a
benchmark change (1.23).

Not surprising. I had some choices like that in some retirement plans my employers got us into.

Folks can we please try to turn down the volume here. I come here as do most others to engage in thoughtful investment discussions, not to deal with political vitriol. If you don’t like her political or social views then don’t invest in the fund. Simple as that. But Lewis is right her performance for her fund category is actually good. In the top 16% over the past 5 years. No need to go after the manager like that.

Here is a PDF of the study Zweig referenced in his article.

PRWCX/TRAIX down -6.1% YTD 8/19/22, but very happy to have bulk of our investments with the fund.

Same here.

I’m not sure “thanks” are deserved here … @JohnN.
Generally, I’d stick with a diversified long-term portfolio. What I’d argue against is trying too hard to “read the tea leaves” and making big changes (ie buying / selling) depending on what you think is going to happen (next week, next month, 6 months out etc.) Easy to get caught flat-footed. Some may have sold near the recent lows and than been caught off guard when the market suddenly turned around and jumped 15-20% in just a month or two.
“Buying down” is dangerous. I still try occasionally. Best way is go slow. Put a set dollar amount into something and watch it. If it falls 5-10%, maybe buy a little more. Not for everyone, Buffett references “blood in the streets”. (Actually, it was Rothschild - my bad) Not all agree with that. Hard to know how much blood will flow and when it will stop flowing.
I corrected earlier incorrect reference to Buffett.

@hank -
Thankyou sir
Been buying more indexes since past two months/ hope catch bottom. Very difficult time the market.... did not change distributions and did not sell last 9 months
One guru smartly stated *buy when blood on the street* that person maybe right long term 12 24 36 months after
Regards

The August 19 episode with Mary Ellen Stanek was originally broadcast on June 17, 2022.

PRWCX/TRAIX down -6.1% YTD 8/19/22, but very happy to have bulk of our investments with the fund.

Allocation funds are back. Note that they rebound strongly after bad quarter(s). They were declared dead prematurely. Twitter LINK.

Chock full of information:
usfunds-Investor-Alert-

https://mobile.twitter.com/DeanChristians/status/1559532018299539458
The bottom are likely in
Good things maybe better 12 24 months from today
Chance of another key leg down sp500 < 3650s in 4 8 wks minimal ( approaching 0 - 5%) base on previous historical models, but anything maybe possible
Stay invested

+1

In an interview with the WSJ, the Fed's James Bullard said that at next month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting he would lean towards voting for a 75 basis point rate hike. "He isn't ready to say that inflation has peaked and it remains important for the Fed to get its target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% by year-end." To get price pressures back to the Fed's 2% target will take about 18 months. "The idea that inflation has peaked is, is a hope, but it's not statistically really in the data at this point," Mr. Bullard said.
In a separate appearance, the Fed's Neel Kashkari reiterated that cutting interest rates in the next six to nine months isn't realistic. He expects the Fed to "raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%."
Sorry, but it looks like the market is getting ahead of itself. If the Fed stands by its plans, the markets could experience some tough times down the road.

ARKK is now down more than 60% for 1 year. Fell 5.92% today to close at $44.69 and than dropped about 30-cents more in after-market trading tonight, ending the week at $44.38
Just listened to Wall Street Week’s opening 20 minutes. Two knowledgeable dudes to lead it off, Ed Hyman of Evercore and Bob Prince from Bridgewater, As far as the quagmire into which they see things devolving … “We’ve Only Just Begun” might be the song of the day.

Hi folks
What think about sp500 level around 12.25.2022
?? 4550 to 4650??
So many bad things may go against this market -
Inflation
Covid resurgence in Usa
Europe issues and energy supplies in winter/commodity issues with Ukrain
Lack of supplies
Feds bipolar response to market
Sentiments
China housing and economic concerns/china c19 policies/shutdown
Recession world/Usa economy
Sp500 Sideways consolidation stagnation, recession/downward spirals or moonshots +7 10%?
Thankyou for any suggestion
Jnn

@Old_Joe: +1. Former IRS commish Koskinen (2013-17) warned us what the GOP cuts were doing to the agency at the time, and came back on a few interviews recently to hammer home the same message and describe what the new funding will do to improve the dysfunction.
Keep in mind that it's also a GOP saboteur hacking away at the postal service.

Yes, big stinky doggy poopies today. 19th Aug, '22. Just one day, yes. But this guy's portfolio is down -0.99%. PRISX financials got slammed the worst. TRAMX has fallen hard, the past 2 days. Africa/Middle East.
DIVIDEND today from ET. No donuts for anyone, however. The booger took it right back. At some point, I hope the management will stop MANAGING debt and start REDUCING debt. But I've been happy with it. BHB and PSTL down also. Those are still my only (3) single-stocks. ......I'll be watching for WSW. Always worth my time. Apart from Summers. Even when he's RIGHT, it's too boring to matter. Eh? Time for some whiskey in the shade. Another hot one, today. Jalapenos growing. Caladium thriving. Planted Serrano Peppers. And nasturtiums. Ah, the week-end. ...

The OP was December 2021 by @catch22. Using his EFT Global link we can see a lot has happened that is still red and only a few buys recommendations. Interestingly India stand out as global standout (beyond US equities).

Some funds that seems to be steaming along:
GLFOX
GASFX
VUIAX (VPU)...not a bad short and long term total return (results below are for VUIAX)

WSJ article by Jason Zweig.
"You know all that stuff you’ve been hearing for so long about how fund managers can’t beat the market?
It isn’t true. Fund managers can easily beat the market. All they have to do is change which market they’re trying to beat.
Hundreds of them have been doing just that for years. Such maneuvers are perfectly legal—and investors need to fend for themselves, because regulators have so far been paying little attention.
A new study by finance professors Kevin Mullally of the University of Central Florida and Andrea Rossi of the University of Arizona finds that between 2006 and 2018, 37% of all U.S. stock mutual funds pulled this kind of switcheroo."
ARTICLE