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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The bottom are likely in
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DeanChristians/status/1559532018299539458
    The bottom are likely in
    Good things maybe better 12 24 months from today
    Chance of another key leg down sp500 < 3650s in 4 8 wks minimal ( approaching 0 - 5%) base on previous historical models, but anything maybe possible
    Stay invested
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    In an interview with the WSJ, the Fed's James Bullard said that at next month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting he would lean towards voting for a 75 basis point rate hike. "He isn't ready to say that inflation has peaked and it remains important for the Fed to get its target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% by year-end." To get price pressures back to the Fed's 2% target will take about 18 months. "The idea that inflation has peaked is, is a hope, but it's not statistically really in the data at this point," Mr. Bullard said.
    In a separate appearance, the Fed's Neel Kashkari reiterated that cutting interest rates in the next six to nine months isn't realistic. He expects the Fed to "raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%."
    Sorry, but it looks like the market is getting ahead of itself. If the Fed stands by its plans, the markets could experience some tough times down the road.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    ARKK is now down more than 60% for 1 year. Fell 5.92% today to close at $44.69 and than dropped about 30-cents more in after-market trading tonight, ending the week at $44.38
    Just listened to Wall Street Week’s opening 20 minutes. Two knowledgeable dudes to lead it off, Ed Hyman of Evercore and Bob Prince from Bridgewater, As far as the quagmire into which they see things devolving … “We’ve Only Just Begun” might be the song of the day.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Hi folks
    What think about sp500 level around 12.25.2022
    ?? 4550 to 4650??
    So many bad things may go against this market -
    Inflation
    Covid resurgence in Usa
    Europe issues and energy supplies in winter/commodity issues with Ukrain
    Lack of supplies
    Feds bipolar response to market
    Sentiments
    China housing and economic concerns/china c19 policies/shutdown
    Recession world/Usa economy
    Sp500 Sideways consolidation stagnation, recession/downward spirals or moonshots +7 10%?
    Thankyou for any suggestion
    Jnn
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    @Old_Joe: +1. Former IRS commish Koskinen (2013-17) warned us what the GOP cuts were doing to the agency at the time, and came back on a few interviews recently to hammer home the same message and describe what the new funding will do to improve the dysfunction.
    Keep in mind that it's also a GOP saboteur hacking away at the postal service.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Yes, big stinky doggy poopies today. 19th Aug, '22. Just one day, yes. But this guy's portfolio is down -0.99%. PRISX financials got slammed the worst. TRAMX has fallen hard, the past 2 days. Africa/Middle East.
    DIVIDEND today from ET. No donuts for anyone, however. The booger took it right back. At some point, I hope the management will stop MANAGING debt and start REDUCING debt. But I've been happy with it. BHB and PSTL down also. Those are still my only (3) single-stocks. ......I'll be watching for WSW. Always worth my time. Apart from Summers. Even when he's RIGHT, it's too boring to matter. Eh? Time for some whiskey in the shade. Another hot one, today. Jalapenos growing. Caladium thriving. Planted Serrano Peppers. And nasturtiums. Ah, the week-end. ...
    image image image image
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    The OP was December 2021 by @catch22. Using his EFT Global link we can see a lot has happened that is still red and only a few buys recommendations. Interestingly India stand out as global standout (beyond US equities).
    image
    Some funds that seems to be steaming along:
    GLFOX
    GASFX
    VUIAX (VPU)...not a bad short and long term total return (results below are for VUIAX)
    image
  • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying
    WSJ article by Jason Zweig.
    "You know all that stuff you’ve been hearing for so long about how fund managers can’t beat the market?
    It isn’t true. Fund managers can easily beat the market. All they have to do is change which market they’re trying to beat.
    Hundreds of them have been doing just that for years. Such maneuvers are perfectly legal—and investors need to fend for themselves, because regulators have so far been paying little attention.
    A new study by finance professors Kevin Mullally of the University of Central Florida and Andrea Rossi of the University of Arizona finds that between 2006 and 2018, 37% of all U.S. stock mutual funds pulled this kind of switcheroo."
    ARTICLE
  • 361 Domestic Long/Short Equity & 361 Global Long/Short Equity Funds reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834422016028/fp0078844_497.htm
    497 1 fp0078844_497.htm
    361 Domestic Long/Short Equity Fund
    Investor Class (Ticker: ADMQX)
    Class I (Ticker: ADMZX)
    Class Y (Ticker: ADMWX)
    361 Global Long/Short Equity Fund
    Investor Class (Ticker: AGAQX)
    Class I (Ticker: AGAZX)
    Class Y (Ticker: AGAWX)
    Each a series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated August 19, 2022 to the currently effective
    Summary Prospectuses, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    *** IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING PROPOSED FUND REORGANIZATIONS ***
    The Board of Trustees of Investment Managers Series Trust has approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”) for each of the 361 Domestic Long/Short Equity Fund and 361 Global Long/Short Equity Fund (each, an “Acquired Fund”), each a series of the Trust, providing for the reorganization of each Acquired Fund into a corresponding newly created series (each, an “Acquiring Fund”) of Allspring Funds Trust. The reorganization of each Acquired Fund is subject to approval by shareholders.
    Each Acquiring Fund will have a substantially similar investment objective, investment strategy and fundamental investment restrictions as its corresponding Acquired Fund. Following the reorganization, each Acquired Fund’s current investment advisor, Hamilton Lane Advisors, L.L.C. (“Hamilton Lane”), will be replaced by Allspring Funds Management, LLC (“Allspring”), which will serve as investment advisor to each Acquiring Fund. Allspring Global Investments, LLC, each Acquired Fund’s current sub-advisor, will serve as the sub-advisor to each Acquired Fund following the reorganization. Each Acquiring Fund will have the same portfolio management team as the corresponding Acquired Fund.
    The Plan provides for each Acquired Fund to transfer all of its assets to the corresponding Acquiring Fund in return for shares of the Acquiring Fund and the Acquiring Fund’s assumption of the Acquired Fund’s liabilities. Shareholders of each Acquired Fund will become shareholders of the corresponding Acquiring Fund, receiving shares of the Acquiring Fund equal in value to the shares of the Acquired Fund held by the shareholders prior to the reorganization. The reorganizations are not expected to result in the recognition of gain or loss by either Acquired Fund or its shareholders for federal tax purposes. Allspring and Hamilton Lane will bear the costs related to the reorganizations.
    The Trust will call a shareholder meeting at which shareholders of each Acquired Fund will be asked to consider and vote on the Plan with respect to their Acquired Fund. If the required shareholder approval for the reorganization of an Acquired Fund is obtained, the reorganization of that Acquired Fund is expected to take effect in the fourth quarter of 2022.
    Shareholders of each Acquired Fund will receive a combined prospectus/proxy statement with additional information about the shareholder meeting and the proposed reorganizations. Please read the proxy materials carefully, as they will contain a more detailed description of the proposed reorganizations.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    Good choice, Yogi. Amended returns seem to be low priority and being weirdly administered; I got a corrected 1099 from Fido of the ROC variety that made a difference in my refund in my favor, filed the X pretty much immediately in April, and it finally shows as of a couple of weeks ago as "received," with a completion date estimated as "late July."
    Then just the other day came an email telling me to call an IRS number about it, which has consistently offered the helpful message that "we can't take your call right now."
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    There can be 2 sources of errors. (i) Mutual fund can adjust distributions including reclassifications of income, ST-CG, LT-CG, ROC. (ii) Broker can adjust cost-basis or reclassify ST/LT CGs or adjust wash-sales.
    I investigated in order to determine what I will do.
    All adjustments were for transactions for the ST muni FLTDX that I had been using to flow cash during the ZIRP. I checked Nuveen website and this fund had no CGs or ROC and didn't make any changes to its income distributions (at least they are not flagged as such).
    In ALL transactions related to FLTDX, Schwab made tiny cost-basis adjustments and that caused about $30 in extra CGs (ST+LT). So, the adjustments are from Schwab's cost-basis recordkeeping. What and why Schwab found those in AUGUST 2022? No specific explanations were included besides generic blah blah.
    I will just let it go and not file an amended 1040X. The IRS can bill me for small amount of extra tax if it is bothered by this - the IRS does get the corrected-1099.
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    Surprised to see an email from Schwab on a corrected-1099 in AUGUST! Crazy!!
    It is for a Nuveen muni fund. Don't know who is being sloppy here.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/17/22
    For the week ending on 8/17/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (29.5%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (33.3%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -3.8% (below average). The strong stock rally from mid-June lows continued. Investor concerns: Recession/slowdown; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (25+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down, gold up, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=747
  • Sweater Cashmere Fund (VC Fund)
    Bloomberg shows the fund's Total assets at $8.5M as of 8-16-2022. How can you have Cashmere without the Cash?
    We really cannot be familiar with ALL the Asset Mgrs out there, and I'm not sure about these guys. I suppose a VC fund is probably just looking to get lucky with a major home run or two anyway.
    Interesting new product for small time (us non-accredited) retail investors. Will watch to see if it attracts any $. Fees are not cheap, redemption window is semi-annual.
  • CWS Market Review – August 16, 2022
    During the day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 poked its head above 4,325. That’s a place the index has not been since early May. The S&P 500 has now gained back more than half of what it lost during this year’s unpleasantness.
    The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 6 points to 49. That was its eighth-straight monthly decline.
    The reason why this is so important is that 50 is the tipping point. Any number above 50 is considered positive, while any number below it is considered negative. Now we’re negative. Except for a brief period around Covid, this index hasn’t been negative in eight years.

    The broader economy is probably not in a recession at the moment, but its most important sector likely is.
    CWS
    crossingwallstreet market-review-august-16-2022
    Housing IS the Business Cycle
    https://nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13428/w13428.pdf