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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is Your Fixed Income Portfolio Prepared for Uncertainty?...It's Not Just Tariffs
    Note from CrossingBridge on recent market volatility:
    Volatility has returned in full force, and while these recent moves may feel surprising, they shouldn’t be unexpected.
    The Trump administration has clearly and repeatedly messaged the desire to impose tariffs on trading partners as a source of revenue, justified by their belief in longstanding trading inequality. More importantly, Scott Bessent has focused on the considerable amount of US debt maturities that will need refinancing over the next 12 months. As a result of prior Treasury policy that focused on the shorter end of the curve, approximately $7 trillion of debt needs refinancing in 2025 alone. Bessent is focused on terming out the debt as far as possible and at the lowest rate possible. If weakening the U.S. economy and the dollar is a consequence, he is clearly taking the attitude of ‘so be it.’
    As seen over the past few years, investors have been whipsawed in their fixed income portfolios, experiencing drawdowns and volatility typically seen in the equity markets. Should inflation remain sticky (as illustrated by today's payroll numbers), it could put the Fed in a difficult position. Specifically, Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research highlighted from Powell’s Special Briefing today that he mentioned “tension” between soft & hard data, and that the word “persistent” replaced “transitory”. Furthermore, we should point out that aggressive U.S. policy may lead to a buyer strike among foreign investors. Alternatively, countries make Trump a phenomenal deal. One might speculate such a deal as tariff-relief in exchange for purchasing 100-year, zero-coupon U.S. Treasuries.
    After decades of duration being your friend, we don’t look at duration as a return driver, but rather as an additional risk in the portfolio. We believe it’s essential not to bet on the direction of interest rates, which is completely out of investors' control — but rather focus on what you can analyze. As bottom-up, fixed income value investors, we concentrate on fundamentals such as:
    • Cash flow quality and sustainability
    • Balance sheet strength
    • Liquidity buffers and access to capital
    • Sector and issuer-specific risks
    • Relative value across the capital structure
    For some time, we’ve cautioned that credit spreads were tight and that markets were underpricing both liquidity risk and uncertainty. With corporate profits at historically high levels, and productivity gains increasingly reliant on technological advances, we’ve maintained a defensive posture — overweighting ‘dry powder’ in our portfolios, which aims to serve a dual-purpose: 1) helping protect on the downside and 2) preparing to deploy capital when opportunities emerge.
    As spreads have started to widen, we are seeing some buying opportunities, but remaining highly cautious in deploying capital due to the high level of uncertainty.
    Please don't hesitate in reaching out to John Conner ([email protected]) if you have any questions/comments.
  • Berkshire Hathaway: "Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today"
    “This is why Warren Buffett just said Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years,” the video says.
    Bold letters highlight the non-sense Trump is sprouting.
    Buffet has more than half of Berkshire asset in CASH since he took profit in mid 2024. When the market is in deep recession, there will be plenty of buying opportunities for Buffet.
  • Administration: “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!”
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Stock-market rout continues as investors rattled by Trump tariffs- S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq cap dismal day for global indices but US president doubles down on tariff plan
    Wall Street suffered its worst week since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis five years ago as investors worldwide balked at Donald Trump’s risky bid to overhaul the global economy with sweeping US tariffs. The US president doubled down on his plan on Friday, insisting he would not back down even as the chairman of the Federal Reserve warned it would likely raise prices and slow down economic growth.
    A stock-market rout continued apace, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling 322 points, or 6%, and the Dow Jones industrial average retreating 2,231.07 points, or 5.2%, in New York. The Dow’s two-day slump has wiped out $6.4tn in value, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, sank 5.8%, and entered bear market territory, having fallen more than 20% since peaking in December.
    Over the week, the S&P 500 fell 9.1%, its worst five-day trading stretch since March 2020.
    Trump sought to reverse the slide, but an insistence that his policies “will never change” in an all-caps social media post appeared to only reinforce apprehension over his strategy: “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!” he wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform.
    China outlined plans to retaliate, setting the stage for an all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies, as other governments worldwide pulled together their response. The sweeping package of tariffs unveiled by Donald Trump on Wednesday includes an exemption for the energy sector, which is a clear sign of the president’s fealty to his big oil donors over the American people, advocates say.
    The US market declines capped another dismal day for global indices. The FTSE 100 fell 5% in London. The CAC 40 declined 4.3% in Paris. The Nikkei 225 dropped 2.8% in Tokyo.
    “It is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” the Fed chair Jerome Powell said. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

    Comment: SO MUCH WINNING !!!
    (Note: Text emphasis added in above report.)
  • July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    I will be watching for MFOP Quarterly Metrics updated to 3/31/25. Thanks.
  • July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted
    Will post tomorrow, Saturday. Lipper drops month ending each Saturday about 5 am Pacific Time. It will include MTD through today, 4 April. c
  • Berkshire Hathaway: "Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today"
    Following is a short current report in The Guardian:
    Berkshire Hathaway released a statement that essentially says Donald Trump posted a fake quote from Warren Buffet on social media today.
    A video posted on X that Trump reposted on Truth Social said that Trump is crashing the stock market on purpose, supposedly to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
    “This is why Warren Buffett just said Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years,” the video says.
    In a statement to CNBC, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s company, said: “There are reports currently circulating on social media (including TikTok, Facebook and TikTok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E Buffett. All such reports are false”.
    We’re likely going to see a lot of attempts from Trump and his administration to reframe the situation on Wall Street in the coming days. Keep in mind that in early March, when Trump was asked whether he could confirm that the country wasn’t heading into a recession because of his tariff policies, Trump said: “I hate to predict things like that”.
  • Among the biggest losers so far are tech stocks, particularly Apple
    The following is from a current report in The Guardian:
    Among the biggest losers so far in the massive Wall Street sell-offs are tech stocks, particularly Apple, which relies heavily on China in its supply chain.
    Apple is nearly 6% down today, after falling 9% on Thursday – what amounted to over $300bn of its market value, according to the Financial Times. It was the company’s worst day since March 2020, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The White House went out of its way to confirm that there aren’t any exceptions made for Apple in Trump’s plan.
    Projections made by Rosenblatt Securities suggest that the tariffs of China, of which there will be a total of 54% after Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs against the country, could increase the cost of the cheapest iPhone 16 model by 43% – from $799 now to $1,142, depending on how much of the tariff Apple chooses to push onto customers.
    The tariffs came despite moves from Apple CEO Tim Cook to try to cozy up to Trump. Cook congratulated Trump on his win in November and was in attendance at Trump inauguration. In February, Apple announced that it would invest over $500bn in US jobs over the next five years, what was largely seen as a play to get Trump to hold back on tariffs.
  • Fed's Powell warns high inflation and slower growth could be here to stay
    "Powell also emphasized that the full impact of the tariffs on the economy aren’t yet clear,
    and the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines until it has more clarity about the economy."

    “'Our obligation is to ... make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not
    become an ongoing inflation problem,' Powell said in remarks delivered in Arlington, Virginia."

    "Trump, separately, urged Powell to cut rates, citing lower inflation
    and energy prices on his social media platform, Truth Social."

    “'This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates,' Trump wrote.
    'CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!'”

    https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-inflation-economy-trump-powell-490417656971634592bbeb3b2ade3593
  • Trade war escalates as China hits back with 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    BEIJING - China has hit back at new U.S. tariffs with sweeping levies of its own on American products, sharply escalating the trade war between the world's two biggest economies. China's finance ministry said on Friday a 34% tariff will be imposed on all U.S. imports from April 10, mirroring President Trump's levy on Chinese goods that was announced as part of his global tariff blitz on Wednesday.
    The research firm Capital Economics said the Chinese retaliation did not bode well for prospects of finding a resolution: "This is an aggressive, escalatory response that makes a near-term deal to end the trade war between the two superpowers highly unlikely," its analysts wrote in a note.
    But the new Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods do not bring China's across-the-board levies to the same level as those of the U.S. on Chinese goods. Prior to Wednesday, Trump had already imposed tariffs of 20% on Chinese products, and his latest move took the overall rate to 54%. China had responded to those earlier tariffs with targeted tariffs of its own and other measures.
    The latest Chinese countermeasures also included restrictions on U.S. companies and rare earth exports. China's commerce ministry said on Friday it is adding 16 U.S. entities to an export control list, banning them from acquiring Chinese products designated as dual-use, for civilian and military purposes.
    "These entities have behaved in a manner that may jeopardize China's national security and interests, and no export operator is allowed to violate the above-mentioned provisions," it said in a statement. The commerce ministry put 11 other U.S. companies on a so-called "unreliable entity" list, effectively blacklisting them. It accused the companies of "carrying out so-called military technology cooperation with Taiwan despite China's strong opposition". Beijing considers self-governed Taiwan a part of China.
    The commerce ministry also announced that it is imposing export controls on seven types of rare earth minerals. They include samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium. In addition, China's customs administration is suspending some farm product import qualifications for several American companies.
    In explaining its retaliatory tariffs, the finance ministry said the imposition of tariffs by the United States is "not in line with international trade rules, seriously undermines China's legitimate rights and interests, and is a typical unilateral bullying practice".
    The U.S. action "not only undermines the U.S. self-interest, but also jeopardizes the development of the global economy and the stabilization of production and supply chains," it said.
  • Stocks sink in another brutal day, as Trump's tariffs send global shockwaves
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    Wall Street is not Main Street — but this week, investors and consumers alike seem terrified of how President Trump's tariffs could upend the global economy. The pain continued for U.S. stocks on Friday, a day after the stock market suffered its worst day in five years.
    Late on Friday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,400 points — or 3.4% . That extended its Thursday selloff of nearly 1,700 points, or 4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500, which tracks the largest U.S. companies, also continued to tumble: Both fell more than 4% on Friday morning.
    Trump shocked businesses, investors, and global trading partners on Wednesday, when he announced that his long-promised tariffs would affect almost all U.S. imports. He has imposed the taxes on U.S. allies and foes alike: Most U.S. imports will now face tariffs of at least 10 percent, with higher taxes on goods from the European Union, Japan, China, and dozens of other countries.
    The global trade war intensified on Friday. China responded to Trump's taxes with a reciprocal 34% tariff on all U.S. imports; other countries are also likely to retaliate.
    Economists warn the new taxes will result in higher prices and slower growth in the United States — while spilling over into other countries and hurting the global economy. Investment bank JPMorgan on Thursday warned that the tariffs are likely to push the U.S. and the world into a recession.
    Businesses of all sizes reacted with shock and anger as they processed the sweeping costs that they — and their customers — will now have to pay to continue doing business.
    Consumer spending is already slowing down, while consumer confidence has plummeted. And even a reassuring jobs report on Friday morning — with employers adding more jobs than expected last month — couldn't quiet widespread market fears about the outlook for the post-tariffs economy.
  • Fed's Powell warns high inflation and slower growth could be here to stay
    Following are edited excerpts from current reports in The Guardian:
    Fed's Powell warns high inflation and slower growth could be here to stay, as Trump tells him to cut interest rates
    Donald Trump’s new tariffs are “larger than expected” and the economic fallout including higher inflation and slower growth likely will be as well, the Federal Reserve chair said on Friday in remarks that pointed to the potentially difficult set of decisions ahead for the central bank.
    In prepared remarks for a business journalists’ conference Powell said: "We face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent."
    Powell added that it was not the Fed’s role to comment on the Trump administration’s policies but rather to react to how they might affect an economy that he and his colleagues regarded just a few weeks ago as being in a “sweet spot” of falling inflation and low unemployment.
    As the new policies and their likely economic effects become clearer, we will have a better sense of their implications for the economy and for monetary policy. While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.
    Following is additional information from The Guardian:
    The last time US tariffs were this high was after president Herbert Hoover signed into law the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff bill in 1930, which saw tariffs on many imported goods averaging nearly 40%. Just as now, there was global indignation at what was seen as unreasonable protectionism by the US, with nations such as France threatening firm retaliation if it did not back down.
    As politicians sought to negotiate with the US, European businesses took a more direct course of action by boycotting US produce. In the UK, department stores even placed placards in their windows advertising an ‘Empire loaf’, which was made with 85% Canadian flour.
    The impact of Hoover’s tariffs were, as predicted by hundreds of economists, highly damaging to the US, with estimates of imported goods, many of which were needed by US industry and commerce, plummeting by nearly half.
    On Friday British prime minister Keir Starmer spoke to his Australian and Italian counterparts, Anthony Albanese and Giorgia Meloni, about how they should respond to Trump’s tariffs, saying they agreed an “all-out trade war would be extremely damaging and is in nobody’s interests”. Reuters reports that in separate calls, Starmer said it had been “clear for a long time that like-minded countries must maintain strong relationships and dialogue to ensure our mutual security and maintain economic stability”.
  • Wall Street rout drags Nasdaq near bear market
    The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.07% to 15,877.69 by 11:36 a.m. ET, shedding 20% from its all-time closing high touched in December.
    If the index closes below that mark, it would confirm a bear market.
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-futures-lose-ground-after-china-retaliates-against-us-tariffs-2025-04-04/
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    And the predictable response from Tariff Toddler...
    This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly. Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!
    The current MAGA conspiracy theory is that FOTUS is purposely tanking the stock market so he can get the Fed to lower interest rates ... something that's taken off since he retweeted a video from a cryptobro saying this was the reason.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Markets are down considerably for the second consecutive day after Liberation Day.
    As of the current time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen ~3.5%.
    Thank you sir, may I have another?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyz8PTWReWo
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    WTF indeed! Jobs Reports include the week that includes the 12th of the prior month.
    But there are 40%-50% of Americans who believe whatever he says, including a few notable posters on this forum.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    The FEAR is now palpable. Many are saying a mild recession has now been priced in. Hard to say.
    I expect/hope Powell today will NOT bow to the buffoon and the blood letting will continue through the close.
    Where/when it stops, nobody knows!
    EDIT:
    Some Index data
    As of now, these are the levels the 4 major indexes are OFF their respective peaks
    DOW -13.1% (Correction)
    NASDAQ -21.6% (Bear)
    S&P -15.7% (Correction)
    RUT -26.5% (Bear)
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    As detailed somewhere on this/other threads, we SOLD 1/2 of our stock allocation on Monday in anticipation of the tariff disaster. So we are sitting on a pile of dry powder.
    We have re-deployed about half of the proceeds into a CD, three dedicated bond funds and started a position in Alternative fund QLENX.
    Dip buying is a topic that has come up recently on a few threads.
    See my link and comments here:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/190277#Comment_190277
    FWIW, we remain hesitant to ADD any new money, or in this case, re-deploy Monday's stock sale proceeds at this time. If we do ADD back, we will likely DCA those proceeds back in over the rest of 2025, or DUMP back in on a baby/bath water day.
    Recession probabilities are climbing as is the insanity level in DC. We are electing to be as reasonably safe as possible given the extraneous circumstances that face us all for the next 3.75 years.
    If an investor didn't get outta the way of the freight train that we all should have seen coming down the tracks, I just dunno what the best strategy would be at this point.
    But ADDing new/re-deployed $ at this point just doesn't feel right.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Why do I feel empathy for Bill Murray this AM?
    Probably because Liberation Day is starting to act a lot like Groundhog Day, the movie that is.
    Got up this AM and it looks like the same exact BS as yesterday!
    Well, fortunately we held off putting anything back into stocks yesterday as the truth about the gross inaccuracies of the tariff data unfolded.
    We bought yet another 5-yr CD rung instead, as CP offerings were flying off the shelves yesterday. Got one of the very last CP CDs paying over 4.0%.
    Regardless of what the UE report shows and Chair Powell says today, looks like another buffoon-induced, major bloodbath in world equities again today.
    As 45, historians widely regarded him as the worst, or 2nd worst president of all-time.
    As his 47 term crumbles the US economy, world markets and every worthy foreign relationship we had on the planet in a bit over his first two months, he's got a strong leg up on cementing his legacy as by far the worst president ever.
    BTW, futures are of course now much worse than above-noted, getting right into the range of Groundhog, er Liberation Day 1.