Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.
    Meanwhile, Günther Thallinger, a Board member and former CEO of Allianz SE, one of the world's largest insurance companies, says the climate crisis is on track to wipe out huge chunks of economic value.
    Snips:
    The world is fast approaching temperature levels where insurers will no longer be able to offer cover for many climate risks ... (and) without insurance, which is already being pulled in some places, many other financial services become unviable, from mortgages to investments.
    “This applies not only to housing, but to infrastructure, transportation, agriculture, and industry,” he said. “The economic value of entire regions – coastal, arid, wildfire-prone – will begin to vanish from financial ledgers. Markets will reprice, rapidly and brutally. This is what a climate-driven market failure looks like.”
    No governments will realistically be able to cover the damage when multiple high-cost events happen in rapid succession ...
    Of course anyone paying the least bit of attention to the multiple climate disasters of recent years would know this.
    Yes, the issue absolutely affects economy and investment.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Thankfully my accounts, nearly all equity, have been relatively flat (+/- 1.5%) on the day, which is fine by me when the storm clouds show up. Will it hold in the coming days? *fingers crossed*
  • Global markets in turmoil as Trump tariffs wipe £1.5tn off Wall Street
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Economists say levies of 10-50% have dramatically added to the risk of a worldwide downturn
    Global financial markets have been plunged into turmoil as Donald Trump’s escalating trade war knocked trillions of dollars off the value of the world’s biggest companies and heightened fears of a US recession. As world leaders reacted to the US president’s “liberation day” tariff policies demolishing the international trading order, about $2tn (£1.5tn) was wiped off Wall Street and share prices in other financial centres across the globe.
    Experts said Trump’s sweeping border taxes of between 10% and 50% on the US’s traditional allies and enemies alike had dramatically added to the risk of a steep global downturn and a recession in the world’s biggest economy. The sell-off swept the globe, sending exchanges plunging in Asia and Europe.
    When New York trading opened, the S&P 500 index of the US’s leading companies fell by as much as 4.3% in morning trading, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq fund down 5.1%. Meanwhile, the US dollar hit a six-month low, falling by about 2.2% on Thursday morning, amid a growing loss of confidence in a currency that had previously been considered the safest in the world for most of the past century.
    Warning clients to beware a “dollar confidence crisis”, George Saravelos, the head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, said: “The safe-haven properties of the dollar are being eroded.” The heaviest falls in share prices on Thursday were reserved for US firms with complex international supply chains stretching into the countries that Trump is targeting with billions of dollars in fresh border taxes.
    Apple, which makes most of its iPhones, tablets and other devices for the US market in China, plunged by as much as 9.5%, along with steep declines for other large multinationals including Microsoft, Nvidia, Dell and HP. Commodities fell sharply, including a 7% plunge in oil prices, reflecting growing concerns over the global economic outlook.
    In a typically defiant response on Thursday, Trump used his Truth Social platform to declare that the his plan was working. “THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
    Tariffs will fall heavily on some of the world’s poorest countries, with nations in south-east Asia, including Myanmar, among the most affected. Cambodia, where about one in five of the population lives below the poverty line, was the worst-hit country in the region with a tariff rate of 49%. Vietnam faces 46% tariffs and Myanmar, reeling from a devastating earthquake and years of civil war after a 2021 military coup, was hit with 44%.
    Analysts warned that garment and sports shoe makers, which rely heavily on production in south-east Asia, face rising costs, which will push up prices for consumers around the globe. The share prices of Nike, Adidas and Puma all fell steeply. Analysts said Trump’s measures would raise the average tariff, or border tax, charged by the US to the highest level since 1933, in a development that threatened to sink the US into recession while increasing living costs for consumers.
    The non-partisan Tax Foundation thinktank said it estimated the plan would represent a “$1.8tn tax hike” for US consumers, which would cause imports to fall by more than a quarter, or $900bn, in 2025. While the measures will hit the US hard, researchers at the consultancy Oxford Economics said they could sink global economic growth to the lowest annual rate since the 2008 financial crisis, barring the height of the Covid pandemic.
    The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of 20% on EU goods was “brutal and unfounded”, while Germany’s outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called it “fundamentally wrong”. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said the “protectionist” tariffs ran “contrary to the interests of millions of citizens on this side of the Atlantic and in the US”.
    The EU is thought to be preparing retaliatory tariffs on US consumer and industrial goods – likely to include emblematic products such as orange juice, blue jeans and Harley-Davidson motorbikes – to be announced in mid-April, in response to steel and aluminium tariffs previously announced by Trump.
  • Death-Crosses
    50-dMA and 200-dMA are like large ships that turnaround slowly. So, even if the market action is sideways for the next few weeks, these death-crosses would happen and then cause more selling. R2000/IWM may be leading the way.
    The momentum has turned negative and it may take some time to play out.
    I have sufficient effective-equity exposure, so I am not buying anything now, but only keeping a buy list.
    Good seasonality ends on April 30. The bad seasonality period is May 1 - October 30. If what we have seen so far was during good seasonality, I wonder what bad seasonality will bring?
  • FTSE 100 suffers fall as Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs wipe trillions off global markets
    Following is a current report from The Guardian:
    Shares slump on both sides of the Atlantic, and across Asia-Pacific, as US dollar falls to six month low after US President Trump’s ‘liberation day’
    FTSE 100's worst day since August
    Newsflash: Britain’s stock market has recorded its biggest one-day fall in eight months, as fears over Donald Trump’s escalating trade war triggered a wave of selling.

    The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has closed after a day of heavy losses, down 133 points or 1.5% at 8,474 points.
    That’s its biggest daily drop since early August last year, when markets were tumbling on fears of a US recession.
    Bank stocks led the fallers, with Standard Chartered down 13%, HSBC falling 8.8% and Barclays losing 8.7%.
    Miners were also hit, by fears that a global downturn would hurt demand for commodities such as iron ore, copper and coal.
  • Anyone notice a connection between the market and a certain politician today?
    All strictly my opinions here...YMMV.
    For us, SELL time was Monday (which we did, 50% of our stock allocation), but no later than Wednesday COM.
    We were pretty sure Thursday would bring bloodshed.
    We feared/still fear Friday's UE (and future UE reports) could add some kerosene to the fire.
    We think a recession and a BEAR are coming to a country near us relatively soon.
    I guess one could SELL some now, but when I miss selling before the Big C, I usually wait to BUY the Bear.
    If any stock exposure is to be bought now, for us, it would be Staples and/or Alternatives, though we are toying with adding a wee bit to FXAIX and/or PRWCX.
    With some of Monday's stock SELLs proceeds, we bought a CD, three dedicated bond funds and QLENX Tues and Wed.
    Bottom Line: We think this is going to get FAR worse before it gets ANY better. One MUST have a LT investment horizon to be BUYing, especially broad market stuff, anytime soon.
    ----------------------------------------
    NOT my opinion, but the narrative of some of the analysts/posters I follow:
    BUYing the dip has not worked for the last about 2 years (recent MW study)
    NASDAQ is clearly rolling over (Katie Stockton)
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/01/off-the-charts-whats-next-for-tech-in-q2.html
    Death Crosses for all major indexes are weeks away (yogi).
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63661/death-crosses#latest
    Russell entered Bear Market land today (CNBC).
    Recession fears are mounting and with recessions come Bear Markets (Just about everybody)
  • Anyone notice a connection between the market and a certain politician today?
    But is it buy or sell time?
    So, I guess OPEC lowered prices. Good for US oil companies. Not their stock today. Chevron and Exxon down 4 to 5 percent. ConocoPhilips almost 10 percent. But, with cheaper OPEC, prices at the pump? down?
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    So much winning today. Winning everywhere you look on your screen. Ruby red.
    If you factored in a recession, should the S&P be at least ~25% lower?
  • Death-Crosses
    Death-cross is when the 50-dMA crosses the 200-dMA in a down move.
    Eyeballing StockCharts 50-dMA and 200-dMA trends, the Death-Crosses may be coming soon:
    Nasdaq Comp/ONEQ - 2 weeks?
    Nasdaq 100/QQQ - 3 weeks?
    SP500/VOO - 4 weeks?
    R2000/IWM - already on 3/24/25 (also, in the bear territory)
    DJ Transports - already on 3/18/25
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    FWIW, all SELLs (per above posts) have been entered today.
    Reduced stock exposure by ~50%.
    Parking proceeds in VMRXX, FZDXX and will likely BUY a coupla new rungs on 5-yr CDs ladder that virtually guarantees a net positive TR in 2025.
    Kudos to @larryB for this thread.
    (Sadly) Timely and actionable.
    EDIT: NOT saying this strategy is correct for anyone other than me and the missus.
    BUT, our #1 goal this year, after two monster stock gain years under a REAL president, was to NOT allow the buffoon's asinine fiscal policies (read, orange brain farts) to cause us to be anything but net positive for the year on 12/31/25. And that goal has virtually been guaranteed with these moves today. Plus, we will sleep MUCH better thru year-end!
    What's that old saying? Oh, yeah.
    Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn from time-to-time.
    Thanks again to @larryB for this thread - it truly was the final catalyst for us to act so boldly on Monday.
    Monday's stock sale proceeds were used as follows Tues/Wed:
    Most went as intended to VMRXX and FZDXX.
    Bought another 5-yr CD ladder rung
    Bought first dedicated bond OEFs (3) since selling all of them circa 2022.
    Opened a position in long/short fund QLENX.
    IF, the blood letting continues today up to the close, MAY redeploy some of the proceeds back into FXAIX or PRWCX, having strategically side-stepped today's sell off. But probably not as we are becoming reasonably convinced that a recession and bear are well in the works.
    And, taking suggestions on how to thank @larryB for helping me and the missus save five figures today.
  • Tariffs haven’t leaked at Liberation -56
    Wait for the opportunity; at the end it's a win.
    (link)
  • Tariffs haven’t leaked at Liberation -56
    The morning premarket after Tariff Toddler's nonsense was announced...
    Dow Futures down 3%
    SPX Futures down 3.5%
    NDAQ Futures down 4.4%
    An hour before the US markets open, Tariff Toddler just said this..
    "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!"
  • Tariffs haven’t leaked at Liberation -56
    Lots of posts in social-media are pointing this out - that the figures on what tariffs the other countries charge on the US products aren't supported by the other data available. It looks like the White House just calculated each country's trade deficit with the US as % of its total exports to the US (i.e % trade imbalance).
    There is also some humor,
    "Manish Singh, CFAManish Singh, CFA
    Chief Investment Officer at Crossbridge Capital GroupChief Investment Officer at Crossbridge Capital Group
    ...
    Looks like the penguins just got hit with a 10% tariff—maybe that'll teach them not to rip off the US!
    A 10% Trump "reciprocal tariff" on Heard Island and McDonald Islands (HIMI)?
    These islands are uninhabited and only accessible by a two-week sea voyage from Australia.
    Penguins are the dominant residents.
    Looks like the penguins just got hit with a 10% tariff—maybe that'll teach them not to rip off the US!
    47% Trump "reciprocal tariffs" on Madagascar? That’s brutal.
    Madagascar’s animals won’t be escaping to Africa anymore—looks like their holidays are officially canceled!"
    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/manish-singh-cfa-7561092_tariff-reciprocaltariff-trump-ugcPost-7313327434261508096-LgkR?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU
  • Tariffs haven’t leaked at Liberation -56
    BBG headline this morning:
    "US Emerges as Biggest Loser in Markets From Trump’s Tariffs"
    In other words...
    War is Peace.
    Up is Down.
    There are 5 Lights.
    Losing is Winning - Bigly!
    Welcome to Trumplandia.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/2/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/2/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (61.9%, very high*) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (16.3%, very low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (21.8%, very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -40.1% (very low). Investor concerns: TARIFFS, jobs, budget, debt, inflation, Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (162+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+1 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 35.24% (negative). US reciprocal tariffs of 10-49% were announced. Stock markets reacted negatively. Commodities, dollar & cryptos also fell. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    *3rd highest after 3/5/2009 & 10/19/1990.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1932/thread
  • Tariffs haven’t leaked at Liberation -56
    I just want to add this from Paul Krugman, substack to the chart photo @YBB contributed above.
    Going Crazy on Trade