Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    @MikeM, you probably know the story on Schwab robo-advisor better than others. Schwab took some flak on its aggressive ads for its robo-advisors being "free" (ER 0%) but it keeps more in cash at its own Schwab Bank (which lends that money and throws back some profits to the brokerage side). Other industry members complained to the SEC. Barron's excluded Schwab from its 2020 and 2021 rankings noting this mess. At the end, Schwab settled with the SEC, paid some $xxx millions in fines, but so minimally tweaked its ads that it is hard to see what all the fuss was about. And it joins Barron's ranking in 2022 - OK, at #9, but at least it is there. And now that it is "rehabilitated", it will probably move up on these rankings in future. AUM-wise, Schwab + TD Ameritrade have huge assets in robo-advisors.
  • Article: Active Alpha in Volatility Debunked
    Good post. The longer you check, and I'm talking about at least 20-30 years, a cheap index such as the SP500 beats most stock funds.
    The SP500 is based on the best indicator, the price. The price never lies, regardless of any opinion.
    The SP500 is global too, it gets about 40% of its revenues from abroad.

    The S&P 500 index is a good representation of large-cap U.S. stocks.
    Most active funds underperform this index over longer time periods.
    Although many S&P 500 companies derive substantial revenue from foreign countries,
    it may be prudent to also include foreign-domiciled companies in your portfolio.
    I respect Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle but disagree with their views to avoid foreign investments.
    I have heard the above many times. Why stop at foreign-domiciled companies? Why not slice it 8 ways, just to be sure. This is why many investors lag by complicating their portfolios. The fact is that the most dominated companies are in the SP500 + the USA is very stable + capitalism is not perfect, but still the best we have + I prefer American management globally. China high tech looked great until Xi Jinping took care of that. Europe have been sinking for years. Did you know that there is no European high-tech company by revenue at the top
    (link).
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    People often say that allocation/balanced funds are declining, dead, kaput. But they are wrong. Broadly speaking, target-date funds, robo-advisors and age-based 529s are nothing but allocation/balanced funds in some form. So, this universe is expanding. Robo-advisors alone are $1 trillion now.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    @crash, the concept is absolutely beneficial to most investors. Similiar or possibly better returns than retirement or target date funds. The application and results may differ as shown in this ranking.
    This may not go over well, but I'm guessing from my own experience and the buy and sell posts I see here, these 1 stop options may beat 80% of the people here at MFO. Strict diversification. No buying high, selling low. No chasing hot funds - after they were hot. No toe holds and collecting funds. No alternative funds that work only in specific conditions. Just steady-eddie market returns.
    For disclosure, I have > 1/2 my retirement savings in the Schwab robo, ranked 9th by this poll.
  • "too late to cancel."
    Pending cancel is just default until something is done. My guess is that your previous order (market or limit or stop) was executed near the market open. So, in the order queue, it was too late for your cancel instructions. But you would have reason to be upset if the execution was well after the open (so check the time of the trade).
    ...yes, you're correct. it was done at 9:31 a.m.
    Once again, words and their definitions, their meanings--- have no meaning anymore. MORE big giant doggy poopies. And so it goes. Thanks, yogi.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    www.barrons.com/articles/the-best-robo-advisors-barrons-annual-ranking-51659712291?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1
    Overall Ranking: #1-SoFi, #2-Wealthfront/UBS, #3-Fidelity, #4-SigFig, #5-Merrill Edge, #6-Personal Capital/Empower, #7-Vanguard, #8-Betterment, #9-Schwab, #10-US Bank, #11-Morgan Stanley (includes E*Trade), #12-Wells Fargo, #13-Ally, #14-Acorns, #15-JP Morgan Chase
    Digital Advice by Firm AUMs: #1-Edelman Financial Engines, #2-Vanguard, #3-Morningstar, #4-Fidelity, #5-Schwab, #6-Betterment, #7-Wealthfront/UBS, #8-Personal Capital/Empower, #9-TD Ameritrade/Schwab, #10-Guided Choice, #11-Bloom. Total industry AUM $987.6 billion.
    There are several variations - digital-only, digital+ with some personalization/customization (menu-based) and limited support, tax-loss harvesting.
    Related developments include direct-indexing, ESG, mobile apps.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/153/robo-advisors-barrons-rankings?page=1&scrollTo=732
  • Morningstar Devolution
    Making alcoholic beverages is morally wrong
    Certainly some ratings penalize (or exclude) the manufacture of alcoholic beverages for moral reasons. However, M*'s Sustainalytics concerns are not moral but (surprise) sustainability:
    Based on assessments from Sustainalytics ... the biggest environmental, social, or governance risk for alcohol stems from water use. ... water isn’t just an ingredient. It’s critical to production, including cleaning, cooling, and packaging. And water is even more important given its direct impact on product quality and experience, as well as the growing of ingredients like barley, corn, and other crops.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1092686/hate-the-sin-love-the-stock-investors-esg-exclusions-leave-opportunities
    With respect to mutual funds, I do consider diversity a virtue, but some investors like lack thereof, i.e. concentration.
    Water is like that for more than alcohol production. Which is why I recently took a flyer on water ETF's. At worst I figure they will be little better than a utility type fund. OTOH . . .
  • Article: Active Alpha in Volatility Debunked
    Good post. The longer you check, and I'm talking about at least 20-30 years, a cheap index such as the SP500 beats most stock funds.
    The SP500 is based on the best indicator, the price. The price never lies, regardless of any opinion.
    The SP500 is global too, it gets about 40% of its revenues from abroad.
    The S&P 500 index is a good representation of large-cap U.S. stocks.
    Most active funds underperform this index over longer time periods.
    Although many S&P 500 companies derive substantial revenue from foreign countries,
    it may be prudent to also include foreign-domiciled companies in your portfolio.
    I respect Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle but disagree with their views to avoid foreign investments.
  • Howard Marks memo: "I Beg to Differ"
    Consider the JAVA ETF, run by the same manager, Clare Hart, as the VGIIX mutual fund. VGIIX is a five-star fund, even though it has a low active share in part because its expense ratio is a modest 0.69% but also because Hart takes small calculated risks. She is not a major contrarian, making big bets, but contrarian enough to get the job done. The JAVA ETF has an even lower 0.44% expense ratio and holds 153 stocks. According to Morningstar, VGIIX has an active share of only 63.5%, not very contrarian at all, but enough to win without any extreme swings that are significantly different from its benchmark the Russell 1000 Value. Of course, the Russell 1000 Value is contrarian by design and an ETF tracking that can be had for even less.
  • Howard Marks memo: "I Beg to Differ"
    Scanned @bee’s linked article. Typical Marks. To me the take away is that market valuations follow a herd mentality. At any given time part of the price of a security rests on investor sentiment. Now, none of us has the research capabilities and analytic tools at Mark’s disposal. So it’s difficult trying to replicate his process or even come close.
    Still, I think the herd mentality concept has legs - more so today than ever. Go back 8-12 months and read the threads posted on this forum. Certainly some anticipated the approaching storm and were taking steps to lighten up on risk. But the overwhelming number of posts remained quite bullish. People were eagerly buying. I nearly got into a spitting match with one fellow who insisted “buying the dip” was always a reliable investment approach, even with the DJI near 37,000 and the NASDAQ 20% higher than now,
    So if (a big if) one can identify severely undervalued assets and if one can remain calm and allow time to do its work, than one can be more successful than investing in broadly diversified funds. It’s difficult to see how an extra 1 or 2% in fees would cancel out the benefits of a 2X or 3X appreciation in value over a few years time. BTW - Not long ago passive investing - mostly the S&P 500 was near conventional wisdom here and elsewhere. Doubters were faced with fiercely intense posts trying to prove its validity. Now many (including some D&C funds) are actually shorting that index. One problem some of my sources identify is the huge amount of passive investing coming from retirement plan contributions at the individual level. Much of that has been going into funds linked to the S&P index for decades.
  • Howard Marks memo: "I Beg to Differ"
    I like Howard Marks’ long and thought-provoking pieces. The firm Oaktree Capital (AUM $159 billion) that he cofounded is big and successful in distressed credit areas. Gundlach's DoubleLine may not have happened without Marks. But the firm hasn’t done well in one area – general funds. It offers several private-equity funds, 1 FI interval-fund and 1 tiny EM equity fund. So, all we are left with is reading Marks’ great essays.
    https://www.oaktreecapital.com/
    https://www.businessinsider.com/marks-made-900-million-billion-investing-in-gundlach-2016-2
    Oldtimers may remember VG Convertible Fund VCVSX that was closed in 2019 (AUM was still around $1 billion but that wasn’t not big enough for VG) due to outflows, lagging performance and manager turnover (Oaktree was the fund manager). Knowing about Marks and Oaktree, I followed VCVSX but never got into it as it wasn’t a great fund.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/906914/why-vanguard-killed-a-good-fund
    https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/not-worth-the-hassle-vanguard-to-liquidate-almost-1bn-fund/a1188088
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/46677/vanguard-convertible-securities-fund-to-liquidate/p1
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vanguard-to-liquidate-convertible-securities-fund-300772427.html
  • Howard Marks memo: "I Beg to Differ"
    I listen to Marks several times a week. He’s so “right” and I find it so difficult to follow his advice. I held DKNG and ARKK at various points this year at well below what they closed at yesterday. Yes, I made a few $$ on those spec plays. But the incredible volatility of up 9% one day and down 9% the next scared me off. Took the small gains and ran. Had I clung to those longer I’d have been better off. Both closed yesterday at their recent high. DKNG was down to $10.66 at one point a month or two ago. Near $16 yesterday as I recall - or about 50% above its 3 month low. Bloomberg reports that TSLA jumped 50% last month! Who among us has the nerve to ride those broncos?
    Oversimplifying Marks, the markets are a large casino. Outsmarting the “herd” is his mentality. He must drink better whisky than I do.
    Thanks @bee for posting one of my favorite investors / writers. Sorry if I stole any of your thunder.
  • Howard Marks memo: "I Beg to Differ"
    a couple of insights for Howard Marks...
    In 1978, I was asked to move to the bank's bond department to start funds in convertible bonds and, shortly thereafter, high yield bonds. Now I was investing in securities most fiduciaries considered "uninvestable" and which practically no one knew about, cared about, or deemed desirable... and I was making money steadily and safely. I quickly recognized that my strong performance resulted in large part from precisely that fact: I was investing in securities that practically no one knew about, cared about, or deemed desirable. This brought home the key money-making lesson of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which I had been introduced to at the University of Chicago Business School: If you seek superior investment results, you have to invest in things that others haven't flocked to and caused to be fully valued. In other words, you have to do something different.
    and,
    the total dollars earned by all investors collectively are fixed in amount, all active bets, taken together, constitute a zero-sum game (or negative-sum after commissions and other costs). The investor who is right earns an above-average return, and by definition, the one who's wrong earns a below-average return.
    I Beg to Differ
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4526834-latest-memo-from-howard-marks-i-beg-to-differ
  • Your buy - sells July forward
    @Crash - 0n that imageMuted Response to ET's quarter. Sam Smith's thoughts at SeekingAlpha:
    "While this might baffle some investors, the reason is clear: ET signaled that the "old ET" is still very clearly present and Kelcy Warren's hunger for growth spending is as strong as ever. While it is still very likely that ET will restore its quarterly distribution to pre-cut levels in 2023 or 2024, the likelihood of additional capital returns via additional distribution growth or unit buybacks just took a huge hit.
    It appears ET does not get it: Mr. Market clearly wants ET to reign in its acquisition and growth project spending and instead focus keenly on debt reduction and unitholder capital return acceleration. However, ET appears to be dedicated to simply reaching a certain leverage target, restoring the distribution to pre-cut levels, and then focus heavily on growth spending. While this could pay off, ET's past track record does not bode well."
  • Goldman. AGAIN.
    Under investigation.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/cfpb-is-investigating-goldman-sachss-credit-card-practices-11659640285?mod=hp_lead_pos2
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
    .....And yesterday, Wells (not Goldman) sent me a spam mailing, offering me a teaser ZERO percent rate on a credit card. After the teaser-term is over, the rate jumps to over 20%. It's ripped up and in the trash. They must think we're pretty stupid. Often enough, I am. But not about THAT kinda stuff. Not anymore. Schmucks.
  • A Money Manager Apologizes and Admits Mistakes
    @Crash, do you know that TRAMX has significant holdings in Saudi Arabia, mostly in the financial sector? From a pure investment approach that is not a problem of course. But I know you are a strong-on-ethics guy, so I thought I'd mention it in case you were unaware. I have no idea how to make geographical sector bets so personally I wouldn't use any non-diversified EM fund myself, especially as a buy and hold fund.
    @MikeM
    I'm glad for your message.
    You're correct. Saudi Arabia = 38.67% of the portfolio in TRAMX. It's the biggest single-country bet in that fund. Saudi National Bank = 8.08% of its portfolio.
    Prince M.B.S. is a filthy skunk. A murderer, in fact.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_bin_Salman
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Jamal_Khashoggi
    And do women in that country still possess the right to even drive a car? The Saudi ethical record is dreadful. I do feel besieged, trying to invest ethically. It almost can't be done, even domestically. Wifey is just back from The Philippines. The voters in that country are at least as stupid as voters everywhere else: they elected Ferdinand Marcos' son as President. And now there is a move afoot to change the name of Manila's airport. It is known as the "Ninoy" Aquino International Airport. You may recall that the elder Marcos personally arranged the assassination of Ninoy as he walked off the airplane which brought him to Manila, back in August, 1983. And Israel is running an apartheid state, and still occupying Palestinian land in the West Bank--- doing all they can to see that a viable Palestinian State never happens. Between the Palestinians themselves, there is a huge credibility problem in the leadership. And Burma? "Fugg-ed-about-it." Africa is a mess, too. I try to be ethical. But if I wanted to remain pure, I'd never be able to invest a dime, anywhere. The Human Condition.
  • A Money Manager Apologizes and Admits Mistakes
    +1. I'm still holding TRAMX. Africa/Middle East. Still underwater this year, but not by much....Yesterday was a nice bump-up, but investing is a marathon, not a sprint.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Thx for the explanations, appreciate it.
    @Derf, ya it does seem wonky but...opened 5 year $90k Goldman Sachs, CD thru Schwab 1/19 @ 3.50% APY, matures 1/23, value stated a few days ago as $90,491...opened others thru Schwab during 11/19 @ 3.55%... 5 yr CDs were offering decent APYs back in late '19 etc.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Nuveen International Growth Fund being reorganized
    So, one by one, the OLD Nuveen mutual funds are disappearing. Last time were the old Nuveen EM fund that was just liquidated, and some old Nuveen bond funds and target-risk funds that were merged into similar TIAA-CREF funds (see links below). Now, another, the Nuveen International Growth is being merged into a similar TIAA-CREF fund.
    It is surprising how slow TIAA has been on doing this (after all, TIAA bought OLD Nuveen in 2014; later, to confuse the matters, it rebranded its entire fund arm as NEW Nuveen). They may have made promises to keep the old Nuveen operations going on for a while. Old Nuveen CIO Bob DOLL retired in 2021 and joined a faith-based investment firm.
    Going forward, TIAA may only keep muni CEFs and OEFs from the old Nuveen and may liquidate or merge most of its mutual funds into TIAA-CREF funds. No point in running 2 middling groups of mutual funds.
    At the M* TIAA forum, it was also noted recently that TIAA has plans to get rid of CREF name and operations and fold all of those into TIAA. So, all the TIAA-CREF mutual fund names may soon change to just TIAA.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59626/nuveen-emerging-markets-equity-fund-is-to-be-liquidated/p1
    https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/investments/reorganizations