Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Alternatives to core bond funds
    For decades now, I don't look at one sleeve of my portfolio but the whole portfolio.
    This allows me to use all categories.
    I came to the conclusion to only hold leading categories/funds and look for the portfolio's total risk-adjusted performance and limited number of funds.
    In retirement it's a lot more important for me to have much lower volatility. I pay less attention to performance because I have enough.
    Simple example:
    Instead of holding stocks + bond fund I may use QLEIX instead in the last 5 years.
    Suppose I want just 30% in stocks. Instead of 30/70 VOO/BND, I select VOO/RCTIX. See 10 years (https://testfol.io/?s=18uGeuEjL0F)
  • Are asset managers (like T Rowe Price, BlackRock, Invesco) attractive buys now?
    @hank : Just a guess, thinking for long term holders?
    P.S. I didn't read the article.
    Not sure reading the article would help much with my question. I’m interested in what happens to these types of stocks if the markets enter a steep downturn? Barron’s does not address that.. There was a thread here about TROW (with a caption like ”Buy TROW instead of its funds?”) 5-6 years ago. How’d that go?
    @Derf raises an interesting secondary question. When you buy a stock, how long do you intend to hold it? Buffett might say forever. Doubt many of us have that degree of patience. I only buy individual stocks when the price is already depressed. But if it turns south early on I’m likely to sell. That would have been the right thing to do with TROW 5 years ago.
    (TROW stock price: - 27.4% over 5 years)
    PS - Here’s an interesting discussion I ran across today.
  • Are asset managers (like T Rowe Price, BlackRock, Invesco) attractive buys now?
    This week’s Barron’s has an interesting article recommending an investment in asset managers. Three mentioned favorably: T. Rowe Price, Blackrock, Invesco, each for different reasons. With Invesco they like that about half of its offerings now are popular ETFs. For Blackrock it’s the continuing growth of AUM and high quality of management.
    What they say about T Rowe Price: T. Rowe may be the deepest value and riskiest bet. At just 11 times forward earnings, it’s one of the cheapest fund managers on the market. It’s cheap for a reason: Assets keep draining away. The company reported $24 billion in net outflows in the first half of 2025 after seeing $43 billion depart in 2024.
    My question: While all of the above may be true, wouldn’t the stocks of these three firms (and asset managers in general) fall sharply if the equity markets entered a prolongued (year+ long) downturn owing to the market generated loss of AUM? And, in such a scenario wouldn’t those firms (like the 3 mentioned) heavily invested in retail fund flows suffer the most? I recall trying to play Invesco during the ‘22 downturn and it didn’t go well. Your thoughts?
    (Article caption: “The fund industry faces big hurdles, but these three asset managers have been unjustly dismissed.)”
  • fed shutdown? mr.mkt doesnt care
    I think of an AI like Perplexity as a better search engine without so many ads--yet. All it does is scrape the internet.
    Ten years ago few would have thought of searching google for the best mutual fund to buy right now, or, what is the cure for cluster headaches?
    If I ask Perplexity a question like: What is the success rate of low cost mutual funds? Or, are there any new developments in cluster headache research? I get interesting summaries and good links to follow up.
    So I asked Perplexity for good mutual funds to buy during a government shutdown. Am I interested in Perplexitie's answer? Neigh, I click on the sources tab to see which sites it relied on for its answer. This link should take you there.
    BTW, I am not really interested in buying a fund for the shutdown; I am curious what other people are saying.
  • Alternatives to core bond funds
    @Observant -- tks for pointing out a key diff between PV and PB regards max dd.
    Adding BND to your analysis results in following stats for the same dates
    CAGR: -0.37%
    DD: 18.58%
    So at least for this 5 year stretch, QDSIX would have been a fantastic proxy for BND.
  • Alternatives to core bond funds
    I very much appreciate low volatility and limited potential for drawdowns. So with 5% to 7% per annum being my target, I've been setting up the following bond alt sleeve:
    IRA:
    PAPIX - Option trading
    ARBIX/ARBOX - Hedged Equity
    HMEZX - Merger Arb
    BUYW - Option income
    Taxable acct:
    BALT - Wealth Defender - Defined outcome ETF (capped)
    ALLW - SPDR Bridgewater All-Weather ETF (Ray Dalio)
    PSFF - Buffered FOF
    PRPFX
    It will be interesting to see if it gets me there. Expecting a market test at some point to see how it floats.
  • October Issue
    From David, ”And the level of stock ownership is now at a record high; almost 45% of Americans’ net wealth rests in their stock portfolios (Federal Reserve data, 9/28/2025). So the American consumer is propping up the stock market, and the stock market is propping up the economy, and now consumer confidence is cratering.”
    Randall Forsyth makes a similar case in this week’s Barron’s . In effect, Forsyth says it’s the stock market keeping the economy afloat. He sees the impetus continuing for some time even if the markets falter because of the enormous gains the wealthiest have already reaped. And Schwab has a new TV spot in which a couple riding in the back of a limo talking about stocks is interrupted by the limo driver - who turns out also to be an avid trader. :)
  • Alternatives to core bond funds
    Monthly data is utilized for Portfolio Visualizer analyses
    while daily data is incorporated in Portfolio Backtester analyses.
    Consequently, results will vary.
    Portfolio Visualizer generated the following results for QDSIX, QLEIX, and QMNIX respectively¹.
    CAGR: 12.59%, 24.84%, 18.14%
    Max. Drawdown: -4.45%, -15.98%, -10.52%
    Sharpe: 1.42, 1.68, 1.28
    Sortino: 2.85, 3.63, 2.66
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4yoNaAO46AdhkOrEsxJKG2
    Portfolio Backtester generated the following results for QDSIX, QLEIX, and QMNIX during the same period.
    CAGR: 11.97%, 25.11%, 18.37%
    Max. Drawdown: -7.06%, -17.07%, -14.05%
    Sharpe: 1.16, 1.91, 1.51
    Sortino: 1.57, 2.79, 2.20
    https://testfol.io/?s=4JX16KUrEm3
    ¹ Jul. 2020 - Sep. 2025 (constrained by available data for QDSIX).
  • Alternatives to core bond funds
    Here are my observations
    - The SD metric incorporates daily price movements. No need to manually pore over individual price charts imo
    - Selective cherry picking of dates for unclear reasons. I.e. A 3 year chart of QDSIX is being looked at alongside YTD charts for SPY (no idea why SPY even entered the picture in a discussion for bond funds but anyway..)
    - My suggestion of QDSIX as a candidate for replacing a standard bond fund (such as BND) was initially explained as per below
    To me the label of Bond fund is less relevant than whether it has served the function of a bond fund. I.e. Decent return and low max dd. With that frame, here are some funds that have returned 7% or higher during the last 5Y with a drawdown of 3% or lower.
    CEDIX, 15.6, 2.4
    VFLEX 10, 2.1
    LCTIX 7.4, 2.5
    as compared to
    CBLDX 6.1, 1.4
    PFIIX 4.5, 7.3
    PAIIX 2.6, 8.9
    The last two would be no-go's for me with those performance and max dd numbers.
    Subsequently I proposed QDSIX too (in response to a question asked by a forum member) with justification as per below
    Here is the direct QDSIX to BND compare
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=3hYp9dTgZx25fW564h0zrq
    Key take-aways
    CAGR of 12.59% vs. -0.43%
    MaxDD 4.45% vs. 17.54%
    Sortino 2.85 vs. -0.64
    Short story is that QDSIX has blown the lights out of BND across various time periods since inception in 2020 at significantly lower volatility.
    And finally, in response to the selective cherry picking of dates by @FD1000 (Note: I never proposed QLEIX to be a substitute for a bond fund, I have no idea just like SPY why QLEIX entered the picture in a bond fund thread but anyway..).
    3Y (10/1/22 to 09/30/25) Return & Risk Stats of QLEIX, QDSIX
    CAGR: 13.41, 32.55
    SD: 6.62, 8.39
    Is QLEIX CAGR a lot better than QDSIX for above time period for comparable risk? Sure, I think that is a reasonable argument to make
    But zoom out to the inception to date performance of QDSIX (July 2020 to Sep 2025) as compared to QLEIX and the numbers are
    CAGR: 12.59, 24.84
    SD: 6.5, 12.05
    MaxDD: 4.45, 15.98
    In short, I don't see QLEIX is a replacement for QDSIX but YMMV. I certainly see QDSIX as a strong replacement for BND but I ack the comments from others that QDSIX is a young fund that has not been battle tested.
  • Alternatives to core bond funds
    In the above referenced thread, @FD1000 kindly educated me as per below.
    Where is the actual data that supports your contention that QDSIX has dropped 7% in 2024/25?

    See the chart (
    https://schrts.co/pWNKwfaP)
    I looked at a 3-year chart so it looked like 7%. It's actually closer to 6% but still more than your DD=4.8
    If you use PV for YTD (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=10eBW4hM7DguW80JelVpf8)
    MAX draw = -1.37.
    For SP500 max draw = -7.58. In reality SPY lost about 19% from peak to trough.
    See (https://schrts.co/WPhBIdSe)
    I hope you learn something new. :-)
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 3 October 2025. Monthly flow tools updated through September and the daily FLOW tool updated through Friday.
  • 2025 Capital Gain distribution estimates
    Hello MFO team:
    Love your publication. Am I to understand that your site will no longer publish or entertain a discussion about MF Capital Gain estimates as in yrs past? You're now steering your subscribers over to CapGainsValet?
    Thank you
    Felipe Garcia
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Where is the actual data that supports your contention that QDSIX has dropped 7% in 2024/25?
    See the chart (https://schrts.co/pWNKwfaP)
    I looked at a 3-year chart so it looked like 7%. It's actually closer to 6% but still more than your DD=4.8
    If you use PV for YTD (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=10eBW4hM7DguW80JelVpf8)
    MAX draw = -1.37.
    For SP500 max draw = -7.58. In reality SPY lost about 19% from peak to trough.
    See (https://schrts.co/WPhBIdSe)
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Where is the actual data that supports your contention that QDSIX has dropped 7% in 2024/25?
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Max DD for QDSIX since inception is 4.45% as per PV unless @FD1000 you have info to the contrary.
    Reread my post.
    DD is a monthly number.
    If on April 1st a fund NAV is at 10, then 9 on April 20, and back to 10 on April 30th.
    DD=zero and tells you nothing about fact that it was down 10% from peak to trough.
  • fed shutdown? mr.mkt doesnt care
    @Derf, Google AI says that HFT trades are almost 50% of US trading.
    HFT trading is algo-trading with hundreds of simultaneous trades and with trade intervals measured in milliseconds. If you can do that on your PC, then you are in the club, but are likely not (-:).
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    so so confused
    QDSNX:
    Asset Class% Net Short Long
    U.S. Equity 8.23 127.53 135.76
    Non-US Equity 6.68 89.05 95.73
    Fixed Income 12.79 278.80 291.59
    Other 37.97 4.41 42.39
    Cash 29.33 174.56 203.89
    Not Classified 4.98 0.44 5.42
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Max DD for QDSIX since inception is 4.45% as per PV unless @FD1000 you have info to the contrary.
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    Perhaps we should ask AI? Ahahah
    Key figures on AI's impact:
    -75% of S&P 500 gains: Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, AI-related stocks drove 75% of the gains in the S&P 500, according to a September 2025 analysis by JPMorgan.
    -60% of 2025 market returns: In 2025, approximately 60% of market returns were attributed to AI-related stocks.
    -Dominance of the "Magnificent Seven": Much of this growth is tied to a handful of companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
    -Through the first three quarters of 2025, this group added $3.1 trillion in market capitalization.
    -Sector-specific outperformance: A Morningstar analysis showed that a basket of 38 AI stocks significantly outperformed the overall market in the third quarter of 2025, gaining 15.7% compared to the market's 7.7% return.
    I don't know about you guys, but I am not feeling any better after reading that! If true, this bubble has been forming for 3 years already. And is highly focused on the usual suspects.