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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • YTD Losers for Me: MSEGX ARTYX FSEAX and MACGX
    JG: VERY impressed that you would start a thread to point up your LOSSES!. How refreshing to see honest, full disclosure by a poster. Congrats to YOU!
    Actual YTD TRs:
    MSEGX -0.93%
    ARTYX -2.99%
    FSEAX +1.08%
    MACGX +0.57%
    As I trust you know...
    These are all great funds in areas that should do well this year (and likely beyond though EMs are a trading category for me.)
    Apparently, based on your YTD TRs vs Actual YTD TRs, your BUY timing was bad and likely worsened by having dumped in rather that DCA'ing in. (Forgive me for my candor and if I'm wrong on that.)
    I know it's painful/stressful to see losses like that. Take heart though if you went into these for the long haul. They will recover. With the daily moves we've seen in these funds, know that your TR losses can be erased in them in just a couple of days.
    Positive spins:
    Well first, a reminder of the legendary advice of a former M* poster, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
    I always try to see a positive in my goofs. On these, I'd be telling myself that I learned my lesson that with high fliers like these, I MUST ensure that I will treat them like individual stocks in the future and ALWAYS DCA into them over a period of at least a couple of months.
    Disclaimer: I own three of the listed funds. I either owned the full positions in 2020 or finished DCA'ing into them in early 2021. My YTD TRs therefore are/are closer to their actual TRs.
    Aside: Hang in there JG - you did very well with your selection process but just didn't execute the BUY process to your best advantage. Looking forward to the day this year when you post how much you are UP on each of these.
  • Market bull Jeremy Siegel warns the Nasdaq rebound will unravel, favors value stocks
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/09/nasdaq-rebound-will-unravel-whartons-jeremy-siegel-warns.html
    ***Market bull Jeremy Siegel warns the Nasdaq rebound will unravel, favors value stocks
    The Nasdaq rebound may last shorter than a New York minute.
    Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel sees near-term trouble, saying the backdrop is dramatically supporting the reopening trade over Big Tech and growth plays.***
    Qqq may have another 10 15% before rsi reaches 70%
    Maybe still some gas left in the tank
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/QQQ/cheat-sheet
  • JASVX - James Alpha Structured Credit - 30 mos, only 1 neg
    I wouldn't put my life savings into this fund but I do own it as a satellite position and pleased so far. Even though it's short-lived it did great in the COVID drawdown (max DD 6.33) compared with IOFIX (max DD 37.95% during the same swoon). I'd say that's pretty good for CAGR of 10.68% and Sharpe of 1.5% since inception.
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    @JonGaltill - I started investing in the ARK funds mid-2020 so I guess you could say that those are the ones I like. BUT, the Fidelity offerings are new and some folks are just more comfortable with mutual funds v. ETF's. Here is what Fidelity is offering and you will notice similarities to ARK's funds. I guess it all depends on what an investor is most comfortable with and where one thinks they see opportunity. I get my leads from my 30-40 year old children along with a boat load of their friends and associates, what they use and what they get excited about.
    1) Fidelity® Disruptive Automation Fund (FBOTX) - Invests in companies leading the way in automation, from industrial robotics to artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.
    2) Fidelity® Disruptive Communications Fund (FNETX) - Invests in companies changing the way we connect and communicate, from social media to 5G-related digital infrastructure and the internet of things.
    3) Fidelity® Disruptive Finance Fund (FNTEX) - Invests in companies helping to deliver more efficient and customized financial solutions, such as digital payments and internet banks.
    4) Fidelity® Disruptive Medicine Fund (FMEDX) - Invests in companies that are transforming medical diagnostics, therapies, and services, from gene therapy to robotic surgery and digital health platforms.
    5) Fidelity® Disruptive Technology Fund (FTEKX) - Invests in new technologies such as companies delivering cloud computing, harnessing big data, and transforming consumer experiences through internet and mobile platforms.
    6) Fidelity® Disruptors Fund (FGDFX) - Brings together 5 disruptive themes—automation, communications, finance, medicine, and technology—in a single fund.
  • JASVX - James Alpha Structured Credit - 30 mos, only 1 neg
    I share JonG's conservatism, though mine is based on additional concerns.
    The fund is submanaged by Orange Investment Advisors. The day-to-day managers of the fund are the Orange ones: Jay Menozzi and Boris Peresechensky. Both came over from Semper where they worked together. IMHO that's the first clue about the kinds of risks one might expect with this fund. Not that SEMMX didn't do well when they were there, but that they may manage in a style (or part of the market) that does well until it doesn't.
    Then there's the fund family James Alpha. A dozen funds, mostly in non-mainstream categories: Long Short Equity, Long Short Bond, Market Neutral, four Multialternatives, two Options Based, a Managed Futures. Then there's its largest fund, a Global Real Estate fund (80% of the family's AUM), and this one.
    M*'s analysis of the family is consistent with what one might guess from this lineup. The family is a liquid-alt shop with expensive funds. Five funds were launched in 2017, and two others were liquidated in the past couple of years.
    These are the reasons I would tread carefully.
    Regarding the numeric comparisons:
    - I don't find anything magical about 0% return; I would much rather have a fund that lost a quarter point in each of a few months and did well in the others than a fund that chugged along earning little in most months and never having a losing month.
    - Until this year M* classified the fund as nontraditional. In comparing with its peers, are people comparing against its newfound peers or funds in its nearly lifetime category? For that matter, I have more general issues with comparing nontraditional funds, as that category is somewhat of a grab bag for funds that don't fit elsewhere.
    - JASVX's 2019 return was 8.97%, per M*.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=JASVX
    Its prospectus (and M*) report that the 2019 calendar year return for the cheaper (I) share class JSVIX was 7.31%. I get concerned when numbers that should be very similar aren't close. Needs more research.
    https://info.jamesalphaadvisors.com/l/660023/2021-01-11/2d98t/660023/1610405927j8bMUFZj/2020_03_30_SAT_JA_Structured_Credit_Value_Port_Class_A_C_I_Final.pdf
  • JASVX - James Alpha Structured Credit - 30 mos, only 1 neg
    JonG, this mutual fund is considered a multi-sector Bond fund that seeks to outperform the U.S. aggregate Bond index, but with lower volatility. It focuses mainly on MBS (mortgage backed securities).
    Not sure it would be fair to compare this fund to an Equity index (S&P 500).
  • JASVX - James Alpha Structured Credit - 30 mos, only 1 neg
    Short Life. I like longer lifes. In short life... still trailed the S&P 500 and that's a benchmark I compare all funds to. On the plus side its APR vs Peer is positive. But I would wait to see more history before I would invest in this fund. But Note: I'm on the conservative side. I always prefer a longer history on funds unless I'm looking at it for my speculative lottery casino have fun with it... like I do with some limited Bitcoin experiments - which are up 10% YTD ... imagine that.
  • JASVX - James Alpha Structured Credit - 30 mos, only 1 neg
    JASVX has a mix of structured credit. Per JAN-2021 Fact Sheet:
    RMBS (26.4%)
    CORP (18.9%)
    CLO/CDO (16.3%)
    Cash (14.4%)
    CMBS (13.5%)
    Govt (8.0%)
    In it's short 30 month life, JASVX has had only 1 negative calendar month (-6.3% in March-2020).
    Bucking the trend so far this year, it has managed a +2.6% return YTD. It had posted +9% and +13.7% returns in the prior 2 calendar years.
    Would I be performance chasing if I slanted my Bond allocation towards this fund? Is this the type of fund that could easily implode if the U.S. housing situation falls apart?
    Any comments appreciated.
  • YTD Losers for Me: MSEGX ARTYX FSEAX and MACGX
    :) Just don't take your own car. The roads up there will surely destroy it. I mean the roads within the city (Montreal.) Last time I was there was in 2016. Allegedly, they had construction and repair going on everywhere in preparation to celebrate the 375th anniv. of its founding. But I kinda doubt that there was much of an improvement, afterwards.
  • YTD Losers for Me: MSEGX ARTYX FSEAX and MACGX
    Ok so it's only 3/9/2021. But after a Tech bounce back day today... I was curious to review my Total Gain/Loss column in Fidelity.
    I made a fair number of adjustments at the beginning of the year and cleaned up my portfolio. I did a lot of research and used MFO Premium and read alot about the funds I was choosing in the discussion forum here etc.
    It's interesting that the last funds I invested in this year are the ones that (while having a great day today) - are still YTD losers for me since purchase:
    MSEGX -3.44%
    ARTYX -8.83%
    FSEAX -8.85%
    MACGX - 18.26%
    In the case of MACGX - I seem to recall reading a post where someone suggested I should wait for a pullback before investing in. I should have listened to that advice. ARTYX and FSEAX - I found via this forum and felt like there will be an Asia rebound and shift towards Asia and EM in 2021. I still believe that will materialize.
    MSEGX - I was just so impressed with the growth fund and the MS family - I wanted a position in it. I already have access and funds in FDGRX but I just wanted some money in MS growth. So - as I look at performance... the funds that I took a chance on... without having the strongest conviction ... are the ones that are trailing in my portfolio. I moved some funds to FBALX and they are about even YTD as an aside.
    However, I think that long term... ARTYX and FSEAX will be positive for me - even if I bought at the high earlier this year. In the case of MACGX - I really bought at the high! I justified it after looking at a 153% return last year and 56% return the year prior. It's got a 10+ year history of strong performance. So, perhaps I have time to be rewarded, despite my untimely entry point.
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    MWFSX performance continues to lag and relates to lower daily distributions.
    Its performance for 1-4-12 weeks per M* Multi category is 85-97-88. Basically, it's in the bottom 15%-3%-12%.
    The last several distributions are:
    As of Date Ticker Dividend Rate Accumulated Dividend Rate
    8/9/2020 MWFSX 0.001256647 0.012160065
    8/8/2020 MWFSX 0.001256647 0.010903418
    8/7/2020 MWFSX 0.001256647 0.009646771
    8/6/2020 MWFSX 0.001189266 0.008390124
    8/5/2020 MWFSX 0.001149859 0.007200858
    8/4/2020 MWFSX 0.001163833 0.006050999
    8/3/2020 MWFSX 0.001201751 0.004887166
    Reminder: just several weeks ago in July the dist were 2-3 times higher.
    At 0.0012 per day it's about 4.4% annually. I'm taking it off my list.
    We discussed this fund last August. Its performance lagged several funds I follow by a lot. All these bond funds are mostly in securitized,
    image
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    I don't know if you deem an allocation fund with slightly less than 50% stock exposure to be conservative.
    If you do and are investing in a taxable account, you may want to consider VTMFX.
    At least 50% of the fund's assets are allocated to munis so that investors can benefit from their tax-advantaged distributions.
  • Making Sense of Elevated Stock Market Prices
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/business/stock-market-prices-bubble.html?searchResultPosition=1
    *Making Sense of Elevated Stock Market Prices
    Shares are very expensive, but so are bonds. Even at current prices, the economist Robert J. Shiller says, it is reasonable to keep some wealth in stocks.
    By Robert J. Shiller
    March 5, 2021
    The stock market is already quite expensive. That is evident when you compare current stock valuations with those from previous eras.
    But it is also true that stock prices are fairly reasonable right now.
    That seemingly contradictory conclusion arises when you include other important factors: interest rates and inflation, which are both extremely low.
    Examined on their own, stock valuations are at giddy levels, yet they are far more attractive when viewed side by side with bonds. That’s why it is so hard to determine whether the stock market is dangerously high or a relative bargain.
    Consider that the S&P 500 index of U.S. stock prices has repeatedly set records over the past year, while a measure that I helped to create, the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500, is also at high levels.
    In my view, the CAPE ratio is the more important of these two measures of overpricing because it corrects for inflation and long-term corporate earnings. John Campbell, now at Harvard University, and I defined CAPE in 1988. This is a bit technical, but please bear with me: The numerator is the stock price per share corrected for consumer price inflation, while the denominator is an average over the last 10 years of corporate reported earnings per share, also corrected for inflation.*
    Not sure if you will be maybe happy with your equities portion if you stay long invested (perhaps 15 20 yrs later - if you can avoid major prolong anemic returns and market crashes)
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    ..per March 5th comment...
    "As an observer of human nature, I wonder if she will come on Cramer and keep her narrative going, max out the hubris, buying the dip in her "disruptive" companies...you think so?"
    March 8th. Done.
    Next stop...Arkk down 50% from highs....
    Full Disclosure: I have no idea what will happen, not long, not short this fund...just seems like a rerun of the bullsheet that was seen during the turn of the century...many tech investor guru's spouting their "vision"
    Good Luck to All,
    Baseball Fan
  • Bigtime SECTOR Rotations
    Yes. Warren Buffett made the move in the fourth quarter of LY. Selling Apple and buying Chevron.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-make-1-billion-gain-chevron-stock-2021-3-1030158860
    But I’m still sold on tech too. Might provide some better entry points.
  • So, how long is this going to last? -10% or -20% move. Too much money still looking for homes, eh?
    Hi Catch -
    Dow + 300 or so today.
    Nasdaq - 300 or so same day.
    Gold sunk further to $1680
    10 year Treasury touched 1.60% early today but apparently backed off to 1.57%.
    Wacky.
  • Schumer says Congress might consider more Covid relief depending on how long pandemic lasts
    Neither was he from what I understand. Senate aides read it to a mostly empty chamber.
    Senate Chamber Empties
  • Schumer says Congress might consider more Covid relief depending on how long pandemic lasts
    "that income level [to qualify for a 2021 Covid recovery rebate check] is based on their 2019 tax returns"
    There's a lot of conflicting information floating around, including from news organizations, so don't be surprised if any particular description, including this one, is not quite correct.
    Here's HR 1319, The American Rescue Plan of 2021. You can find the relevant text in Subtitle G, Part 1 - 2021 Rebates to Individuals, starting on p. 441.
    https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/hr1319/BILLS-117hr1319eh.pdf
    In general, initial checks ("Advance Refund and Credits", p. 447) are based on 2019 returns. But if at the time the IRS figures out how much to send you, it has your 2020 return, the initial check amount will be based on your 2020 return. ("Application to 2020 Returns Filed at Time of Initial Determination", p. 449.)
    Regardless, if your 2020 return indicates you should get more (and you've filed it within three months of the tax filing deadline or Sept. 1 whichever is earlier), you'll get an additional check. ("Additional Payment", p. 449.)
    But wait, there's more. This third payment, like the other two is merely an advance against a refundable tax credit. If your 2021 income qualifies you for a larger credit, you'll get the difference when you file your 2021 tax return.
    To summarize:
    1. Initial check based on 2019 return unless IRS has 2020 return in time to base amount on that return.
    2. Second check based on 2020 return to make up the difference if your first check was based on a higher 2019 income.
    3. Whatever you receive from #1 and #2 you get to keep.
    4. If on your 2021 income you qualify for a larger credit, you get that as well.
    Effectively, the amount of your check and/or credit is based on the lowest income in 2019, 2020, and 2021.
    Ron Johnson made sure that it was all read out loud because "we should know what's in the bill." What, you mean you weren't watching C-SPAN for ten hours?
  • Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
    As difficult as carbon sequestration (aka: hiding it under the rug) may be, it's going to be a lot easier than transporting almost of the current energy transfer via the electric grid.
    Cf: Ignoring Energy Transition Realities: Some Unanswered Questions