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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?

    Historically, stocks have returned not 1532;% but about 4% more than bonds (10% vs. 6%). So given today's interest rate differential between bonds and cash one expects a 75/0/25 portfolio to significantly outperform a 60/40/0 portfolio.
    Things aren't quite this simple because we're looking at averages and when actual returns fluctuate and you're rebalancing, actual returns may differ somewhat. Still, it looks good for the stock/cash portfolio.
    Thank you for doing the arithmetic.
    Something to think about.
    WABAC WABAC in Fund Discussions
  • Corporate Bond Market: Is a “Zombie” Apocalypse Coming?
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/53/de/95/53de9528b398a2d476877668a6aaf4f2.jpg
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    "21 July"? Dang furriners. What country's 1988 rates are you quoting? And whom are you quoting?
    As to Clement's 2021 suggestion that one go for 75% stock/25% cash, his description seems fair. These days, one gives up about 1% in yield in going from bonds (1.4% 10 year T-bond) to cash (0.4% bank accounts). So, using cash instead of bonds in 25% of one's portfolio reduces one's return by 25% x 1% = 25 basis points.
    In exchange, one boosts one's return on the 15% of the portfolio that one invests in stocks rather than in bonds (increasing the stock allocation from 60% to 75%). Should stocks over time return just 1532;% more than bonds, then one's return would be increased by 15% x 1532;%, i.e. 25 basis points. That is, the loss on the cash side would be made up on the stock side.
    Historically, stocks have returned not 1532;% but about 4% more than bonds (10% vs. 6%). So given today's interest rate differential between bonds and cash one expects a 75/0/25 portfolio to significantly outperform a 60/40/0 portfolio.
    Things aren't quite this simple because we're looking at averages and when actual returns fluctuate and you're rebalancing, actual returns may differ somewhat. Still, it looks good for the stock/cash portfolio.
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Not wrong, just early. I’d say Bernstein was recommending a sort of barbell approach, 15% less in bonds & in very short term bonds, ie cash. I assume that is what Mr Galt is getting at.
    I continue to hold bonds because *evidently* I am a pessimist. Well also because I am taking sufficient risk to meet my needs.
    Rbrt Rbrt in Fund Discussions
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    Latest on ARK . https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-cathy-woods-once-hot-ark-innovation-etf-has-lost-all-its-2021-gains-185620392.html
    Stay safe, Derf
    Derf in Fund Discussions
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    @ Rbrt : take a look at the rates in '88 vs rates today.
    "Rates hovered between 9 and 7.5 per cent for the first half of 1988, before breaching the two-figure mark on 21 July. By September, it was 12 per cent, and went up another percentage point in..."
    Enjoy the weather, Derf
    Please delete ! The old saying of haste makes waste applies here ! "Derf"
    Derf in Fund Discussions
  • TMSRX - holding its own
    TMSRX is only 1% for now, but will likely grow to 5% - 8% as I get more comfortable with it and add more along the way. So far, so good.
    That IQDAX story disturbs me, but hoping that's more of a "one-off" situation.
    JD_co in Fund Discussions
  • TMSRX - holding its own
    TMSRX 2%. Will go to 5% sooner or later.
    Enjoy the weather, Derf
    Derf in Fund Discussions
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Here’s a good article that looks into this topic: https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/
    From the article:” That brings me to an idea advanced in 1989 by the late Peter Bernstein. Instead of the classic balanced portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds, perhaps investors should opt for 75% stocks, with the other 25% in cash investments like money market funds and high-yield savings accounts. Bernstein found that the latter investment mix had a similar risk level to the classic balanced portfolio, but higher returns.”
    Rbrt Rbrt in Fund Discussions
  • TMSRX - holding its own
    Trimmed back to ~5% of total portfolio.
    No doubt, T Rowe team tenacious and bright, solid reputation. I've seen Giroux and Sebastien Page, head of Global Multi Asset and Chair of Asset Allocation Committee on Wealthtrack. Intense, knowledgeable, rational, well spoken, nothing kooky about them (I just don't want any of my monies run by screwballs, eccentrics or kooky folks, go figure right, but believe me, you see them in all industries) It appears to me that they have a very collegial, professional and competitive environment at T Rowe Price, those folks play to win. Of course I don't work there and would not know, but based on the demeanor during the interviews I've seen, I believe that to be the case.
    Still more than a bit concerned about the swaps and derivatives in TMSRX, what would really happen for some outlier event which seem to be happening almost on a regular occurring basis lately? I'd like to ramp up to 15% of portfolio but right now, chicken little, likely got stung in IQDAX.
    Phasing into PMEFX (Penn Mutual AM 1847 Income) and FEVAX (First Eagle US Value), nibbling at ARTTX (Artisan Focus) on hard down days past couple weeks, fading VLSAX (Virtus Kar L/S) which has done really well for me up until the past few months where the shorts in re opening stocks have hurt and the high flyer tech stocks have been hit in the past few weeks
    Good Luck to All, enjoy the improving weather,
    Baseball Fan
    Baseball_Fan in Fund Discussions
  • C19 vacc side effects
    New side effect... PFE will get very rich.
    Bloomberg article on Pfizer's roll out of their vaccine in Israel and globally.
    Pfizer has supplied 95 million doses globally. It’s executing on one of the most ambitious scale-ups in pharmaceutical history to meet the relentless demand, boosting production to 2 billion doses in 2021—more than it has agreements to sell at this stage. It expects the vaccine to generate at least $15 billion in revenue in 2021, putting it—under the brand name Comirnaty, an ungainly blend of “Covid,” “mRNA,” and “immunity”—on track to be one of the biggest-selling drugs in the world.
    There’s no rulebook for how a global corporation should behave during a pandemic. Pfizer accomplished something extraordinary, exceeding nearly everyone’s hopes, and is now doing what pharma does: mass-marketing lifesaving products at prices the market is willing to pay. It’s not bound to serve a global public-health agenda. All that said, there will one day be an autopsy of the pandemic, and a central question might be how a single company came to hold such power over so many.
    pfizer-pfe-has-a-moral-dilemma-deciding-where-the-vaccines-will-go?
    bee bee in Other Investing
  • 10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
    Understanding a Fed tool called "Operation Twist"
    Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at BofA Securities, wrote recently in favor of bringing back Operation Twist, saying "the Fed is simultaneously losing control of both the U.S. front end and back end rates curves." Operation Twist Part 3 "kills three birds with one stone: It pulls up front end rates, it stabilizes back end rates, and it does so in a reserve neutral way that lessens bank (statutory liquidity ratio) pressure to hold more capital."
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3668965-fed-powell-operation-twist
    bee bee in Other Investing
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    @catch22 good on you... for the 529. I’d be very happy with those results. Because I was curious, I backtested VFINX over your same time period - it returned 14.3% or near about. But as I said, I would be happy with the 8.7. Very happy - especially for something as important as a 529. Also, thanks for sharing the bond funds you own above!
    @hank - thanks for the compliment. I come to this board to learn from others who likely have a lot more experience and knowledge. Occasionally, I hope to provide a nugget of wisdom or diff. perspective. But, yes I like to regularly question my own strategies ... it’s the only way to improve.
    On bonds- I have definitely scaled back. I sold my Intermediate and Long Term Fidelity ones a few months ago and only hold smaller positions in FXNAX and PONAX at present.
    JonGaltIII in Fund Discussions
  • Why the S&P 500’s bull-market run probably is only getting started
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-s-p-500s-bull-market-run-probably-is-only-getting-started-11614820819
    Why the S&P 500’s bull-market run probably is only getting started
    *It’s been a year since the pandemic first blindsided the U.S., turning many jobs, forms of schooling and ways of socializing into stay-at-home events.
    But it’s only about 11 months since the new bull market for the S&P 500 started.*
    With the c19 appears improved, unemployment data stabilize, housing also stabilize, hope for brighter future and sustainable bull market
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Very recently, the 10-year T has been the hot topic. Rising rates, so other stuff gets shuffled around or actually suffers, performance-wise. I like to take a long-term view, for planning purposes. I do my homework, choosing funds. Bond funds I own:
    PTIAX 5.03% over the past 5 years, and 5.5% over the past 10 yrs.
    PRSNX 6.03% past 5 yrs, and 4.7% = past 10 years.
    RPSIX 5.66% = 5 years and 4.6%= 10 years.
    ********************************************
    Bonds are not stocks. Whether up or down, they don't typically roil the portfolio, the way some specialty stock funds do. I like them because they are doing quite nicely even IN a near-zero interest rate environment. I won't ever hold complicated instruments like double-inverse options. I like plain vanilla. The last time I was able to find a simple, plain vanilla bond offering at a rate over 5.5% was in 2003, when I bought a 10-year Israel "zero," purchased and denominated in dollars. Nearly doubled my money, in 2013, when it matured. I won't buy them anymore due to Israeli political policies. And last time I checked, they're not offering those good rates anymore, anyhow.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    This list is today closing info, March 3. The list is generally available about 6:30pm, EST. The last two numbers in each line are numbers of shares buy/sell and % of that particular holding within the ETF.
    1 ARKF 03/3/2021 Buy KSPILI 48581R205 KASPI.KZ JSC 2,651 0.0042
    2 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy VEEV 922475108 VEEVA SYSTEMS INC 75,900 0.2060
    3 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy TXG 88025U109 10X GENOMICS INC 49,218 0.0839
    4 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy SRPT 803607100 SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS INC 87,700 0.0762
    5 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy RPTX 760273102 REPARE THERAPEUTICS INC 16,969 0.0053
    6 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy ONEM 68269G107 1LIFE HEALTHCARE INC 169,564 0.0750
    7 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy MASS 65443P102 908 DEVICES INC 126,362 0.0635
    8 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy BFLY 124155102 BUTTERFLY NETWORK INC 390,584 0.0650
    9 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy CMLF 18978W109 CM LIFE SCIENCES INC 332,617 0.0604
    10 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy CDXS 192005106 CODEXIS INC 16,991 0.0035
    11 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy ACCD 00437E102 ACCOLADE INC 93,700 0.0411
    12 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy ADPT 00650F109 ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORP 244,014 0.1219
    13 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell GOOGL 02079K305 ALPHABET INC 10,400 0.2056
    14 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell BMY 110122108 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 198,865 0.1171
    15 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell RHHBY 771195104 ROCHE HOLDING AG 515,538 0.2047
    16 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell PSTI 72940R300 PLURISTEM THERAPEUTICS INC 120 0.0000
    17 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy TDOC 87918A105 TELADOC HEALTH INC 226,209 0.2047
    18 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy FATE 31189P102 FATE THERAPEUTICS INC 148,508 0.0577
    19 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy EXAS 30063P105 EXACT SCIENCES CORP 62,847 0.0362
    20 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy BLI 084310101 BERKELEY LIGHTS INC 305,000 0.0795
    21 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy U 91332U101 UNITY SOFTWARE INC 142,314 0.0627
    22 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy ZM 98980L101 ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS INC 134,399 0.2091
    23 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy BEAM 07373V105 BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC 327,030 0.1233
    24 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy PLTR 69608A108 PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC 1,988,500 0.2099
    25 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell TSM 874039100 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD 532,806 0.2872
    26 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell TCEHY 88032Q109 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD 273,293 0.1073
    27 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell NTDOY 654445303 NINTENDO CO LTD 59,162 0.0188
    28 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell ICE 45866F104 INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC 97,749 0.0477
    29 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell BIDU 056752108 BAIDU INC 267,378 0.3393
    30 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell BEKE 482497104 KE HOLDINGS INC 8,847 0.0024
    31 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy U 91332U101 UNITY SOFTWARE INC 173,600 0.5114
    32 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy EXPC 30217C109 EXPERIENCE INVESTMENT CORP 84,800 0.0339
    33 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy ESLT M3760D101 ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD 2,740 0.0103
    34 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy AONE G7000X105 ONE 554,800 0.1957
    35 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Sell DE 244199105 DEERE & CO 31,474 0.3083
    36 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Sell FLIR 302445101 FLIR SYSTEMS INC 160,593 0.2446
    37 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy U 91332U101 UNITY SOFTWARE INC 189,900 0.2534
    38 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 23,320 0.1986
    39 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy TDOC 87918A105 TELADOC HEALTH INC 78,940 0.2095
    40 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy PLTR 69608A108 PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC 670,300 0.2079
    41 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy ZM 98980L101 ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS INC 89,672 0.4010
    42 ARKW 03/3/2021 Sell NVDA 67066G104 NVIDIA CORP 85,856 0.5689
    43 ARKW 03/3/2021 Sell TSM 874039100 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD 316,428 0.5008
    44 ARKW 03/3/2021 Sell API 00851L103 AGORA INC 113,066 0.0900
    catch22 catch22 in Fund Discussions
  • TMSRX - holding its own
    BIVRX was up 5.88% for the day; small increases in BRUSX, LLSCX, and GPMCX.
    TheShadow TheShadow in Fund Discussions
  • TMSRX - holding its own
    Yep, TMSRX sure looks good. Value, especially small cap, and some foreign did ok today in equities, but looks like just about the last bastion in debt - structured credit - may be stalling out and be on its way down.
    This is the third time just recently the S&P 500 has brushed up against the 50 day moving average. Wonder what happens next ... Hussman could finally be a hero.
    Edit: munis seemed to do much better than taxable core debt funds today. Two Nuveen munis I keep an eye on were even up a penny, one junk and one intermediate core-plus-ish.
    AndyJ in Fund Discussions
  • Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
    NY Times article:
    How Green are Electric Vehicles
    Mark Mark in Other Investing
  • Wasatch closes some of its funds to third party financial intermediaries
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312521067244/d146109d497.htm
    (see link for funds and symbols)
    ...This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Wasatch Funds Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for Investor Class and Institutional Class shares dated January 31, 2021. You should retain this Supplement and the SAI for future reference. Additional copies of the SAI may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at wasatchglobal.com or calling us at 800.551.1700.
    Effective on March 19, 2021, the section “Open/Closed Status of Funds” in the section entitled “General Information and History” on page 3 of the SAI is hereby deleted in its entirety and replaced with the following:
    Open/Closed Status of Funds. The Emerging India Fund, Emerging Markets Select Fund, Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund, Global Opportunities Fund, Global Select Fund, Global Value Fund, Greater China Fund, International Growth Fund, International Select Fund, Micro Cap Value Fund, and U.S. Treasury Fund are each open to investors.
    The Core Growth Fund, International Opportunities Fund, Micro Cap Fund, Small Cap Growth Fund, Small Cap Value Fund and Ultra Growth Fund are each closed to new purchases, except purchases by new or existing shareholders purchasing directly from Wasatch Funds, existing shareholders purchasing through intermediaries, and current and future shareholders purchasing through financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund. Fund officers may waive or revise the conditions of a closed fund for an intermediary depending on its ability to systematically apply the conditions.
    https://wasatchglobal.com/wasatch-small-cap-value-fund-to-close-to-new-investors/
    https://wasatchglobal.com/wasatch-micro-cap-fund-to-close-to-new-investors/
    TheShadow TheShadow in Fund Discussions