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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    Down to 21.5% left in Traditional IRA (compared to 100% when I retired over 20 years ago). Most now in Roths. Some in TOD. When you pull necessary funds from a Roth w/o the immediate tax-hit it’s kind of reminiscent of a Yogi Berra expression: ”And they give ya real money.”
    The plan has been to pull mainly from the Traditional IRA annually for normal needs, saving the Roth $$ for the occasional larger needs. Whether conversions, having the up front tax hit, make sense … that’s a different matter and @msf for one has effectively, I think, cast that into doubt. Still, conversions at lower market valuations seem a good idea to me.
    Lots of websites will calculate your RMD - including, I believe, some from the govt. Doesn’t hurt to do some cross-checking among sites if the amount / time periods are critical for you.
    Under recent market conditions have been tilting the Roth more in the direction of growth, while fixed-income holdings and a few small equity hedges are concentrated in the traditional account. Were the equity markets to bounce hard, would probably gradually increase income-oriented component of the Roths as a defensive measure.
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    @sma3
    Doesn't take very long to burn through the $'s for a Master's, eh?
    I believe I found the correct data that indicates at Michigan State, in state resident; the tuition ranges for $1,850 - $1,000 per credit hour. Fully outrageous.
    30-60 credit hours for a Master's. Serious math.
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    One clarification pending is what happens if the beneficiary is changed?
    IMO, this may mess up possible transfers or 15 yr clock.
    Otherwise, transfer $35K to beneficiary1, change beneficiary and transfer $35K to beneficiary2, rinse & repeat. I don't think that was the intent of Congress.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    All 3 guests expect 10 yr Treasury to hit 4% before 3%. Currently right in the middle at 3.5%.
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    @Graust To add to YBB's comment; this is from Lord Abbett Investment Company site:
    529 plan to Roth IRA rollover – Effective in 2024, SECURE 2.0 authorizes 529 plan funds to be directly transferred to a Roth IRA tax and penalty free. Importantly, several conditions must be satisfied to be eligible: The Roth IRA receiving the funds needs to be in the name of the 529 plan beneficiary, the 529 plan must have been maintained for a minimum of 15 years, any contributions (plus earnings) to a 529 plan in the last five years are ineligible to be transferred, the annual transfer limit is the Roth IRA contribution for that year (i.e. $6,500 in 2023), and the lifetime rollover is limited to $35,000.
    Perhaps to let the 'dust' settle on this legislation for the full language markup, if needed. No actions may be taken until 2024, so you have enough planning time. Further clarification will be able to be discovered at the IRS site.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    'Herding Cats'. In my mind, I envision perhaps 12 pieces of data that is the most important for the FED; but is also difficult to pin down for a given time frame and the FED 'watch'; to guide the economy. So, at times; the task is likely to resemble attempting to 'herd cats'.
    My overall quick take on the FOMC discussion period this week was a 'new' soft touch version. The first 15 minutes were 'normal' talk, the second 15 minutes were 'relaxed', a kind of 'we're going to be nice and do no harm. Disinflation was uttered by Mr. Powell.
    --- Wednesday, A bond love-fest, by those so inclined, after 2:30pm FOMC Q&A. Pricing rose nicely in many bond sectors.
    --- Friday. HOT! HOT! HOT! Employment: January payrolls increase 517,000 versus estimate of 188,000. This isn't a data entry error, is it? January unemployment rate falls to 3.4%, a rate last seen in 1969. January average hourly wages, +.3%. AND of course, the bond folks gave back a lot of the Wednesday love.
    --- disinflation v. deflation
    Deflation means prices are falling and the inflation rate is in the negative, while disinflation means a slowdown in the rate of inflation while still remaining in the positive. Disinflation occurs more commonly than deflation.
    Note: On the disinflation front.....reported that chicken wings and avocado prices are down about 22% YTD; and before the Super Bowl parties, too. Big move !!! I have not verified this locally.
    --- U.S.$ UP 1.22% on Friday, for a +1.02% for the week.
    The Money Market thing. FZDXX and two other Fido core MM's will be receiving yield bumps, although FZDXX usually leads first. 'Course, this comes from the Fed. Funds rate hike. I'm anticipating a 4.6% yield within the next week or so; and likely that MM yields will be at 5% or more in the summer. Other investment houses will provide similar yields.
    *** See FOMC thread from Wednesday and current 'Real Yield' for other bond related information.
    My non-qualified quick overview: Mr. Powell would have had a different tone, during the FOMC Q&A, if the employment/labor info was released Wednesday morning. Most bond sectors, although positive for the week, gave back a lot of gains on Friday, some at -1% for the day. 'Course, profit taking should be expected, regardless of financial health reports. TIPS funds did not find love by the end of this week. Common core MM's at fund companies may find a yield of 4.5% this summer.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    NOTE; An excellent request was presented to add more important bond sectors to the list. The new adds are included below.
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, January 30 - Febuary 3, 2023
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield moved a bit to 4.33% . The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.04%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.
    --- AGG = -.02% / +3.17% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.16% / +.94% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.1% / +.59% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.12% / +1.84% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.21% / +3.16% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.85% / +1.66% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.3% / +.56% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.32% / +.6% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -2.6% / +4.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +.25% / +7.4% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.48% / +10.4% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.74 / +10.9% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -.4% / -13.5% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +.22% / +21.3% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.2% / +3.23% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -.05% / +4.81% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.47% / +3.67% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.01% / +3.44% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.4 /+4.27% (VanEck HY Muni
    --- MUB = +.12 /+2.45 (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.02 /+4.77% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +1.2 / +7.5% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +.76 / +10.2% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.33% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise began an upward path again on Friday (Feb. 3).

    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    @yogibearbull
    I got mixed signals reading the part about the 529-to-Roth IRA portion of SECURE. It appears the beneficiary has to have earned income for that year (earned income of at least $1), but the “rollover” can be done to the maximum of the beneficiaries Roth IRA contribution limit (even if earned income is only $1, as an extreme example).
    A) does my question make sense?
    B) is my understanding correct?
    I have a 19 year old daughter who was blessed enough to have grandparents willing to pay for her college, but we were able to fully pay for her first year out of her 529. Debating on emptying it next year (likely paying for at least first semester next year) or holding on to it to rollover to her Roth. Sorry for the personal details that no one but me cares about haha
  • Default Denialism is real
    Some gold ideas.
    FUNDS. There are many ways to play this GOLD rally: gold-bullion (GLD, IAU, GLDM, SGOL), gold-miners (majors GDX, combo majors + minors GDXJ), commodities ETF BCI (futures-based; K-1 free; 19.5% precious metals), OEFs (FKRCX, FSAGX, OPGSX, SGGDX (combo bullion + miners)), stocks (ABX, NEM, WPM) (some pay variable dividends). Gold is benefitting from weakening DOLLAR and INFLATION (global central banks are also buying gold to reduce their exposure to Western currencies). Bullion-miners mix depends on whether there is soft landing (better for miners) or recession (better for bullion). (Gold sold off later in the week, post-FOMC) (By @lewisbraham at MFO)
    Silver better?
    COMMODITIES. Industrial-precious metal SILVER is outperforming gold, although the two have high correlation. This is an indication that global economic activity is picking up, including China reopening. Silver is also important for energy transition and EVs, besides its traditional uses in industrial products/processes and jewelry. Weak DOLLAR is also tailwind for precious metals. Silver targets are in $30s with soft landing and $10s with recession.
    LINK1 LINK2
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-prices-how-to-invest-51675211440?mod=past_editions
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/silver-gold-prices-economy-51675291146?mod=past_editions
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    The first couple guests were above average. Provided the typical “hem & haw” about various assets, interest rates, employment numbers, Fed policy, etc. Neither went out on a limb very far. What caught my attention was the gal who recently succeeded Ray Dalio at Bridgewater (in part, anyway) as co-chief investment officer. Just a 30-60 second clip mid-way into the show, but I thought she nailed it pretty good. (Skipped the last 10 minutes, assuming it was Larry Summers slumber hour.)
    See: Karniol-Tambour of Bridgewater Assiciates
  • Matthews Asia management changes to two funds
    10% directly in China but also 20% in Hong Kong. And he’s free to invest wherever he sees the opportunities.
  • Apple’s Earnings Miss Target / NASDAQ Futures Decline
    Both stocks and bonds are down today, just as everything looked rosy on Thursday.
    The employment figure spook the market. The nonfarm payrolls to rise by 187,000 in January and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%. This suggests another rate hike in next FOMC meeting,
  • Apple’s Earnings Miss Target / NASDAQ Futures Decline
    [snip]
    In the meanwhile, Meta laid off 11,000 (13%) of their employees and will buy back $40 billion of their stock. It is all about keeping up its stock price. Other big tech including Google, Microsoft and Amazon are having sizable layoff too. As in the past, the layoff comes in waves and spreads from one sector to another.
    [snip]
    Some big tech companies hired many new employees after the pandemic.
    Even after recent layoffs, their workforce is still larger than before.
  • Matthews Asia management changes to two funds
    One can invest directly with Seafarer to gain access to the institutional shares and signing up with their automatic investment plan. The minimum is $1,500.
    https://seafarerfunds.com/invest/
    SIVLX is a mid-cap value EM fund. Even though it has 10% allocation to China, these are companies not commonly found in large cap EM funds.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/31761R591?type=sq-NavBar
  • Apple’s Earnings Miss Target / NASDAQ Futures Decline
    It was very strange yesterday when Meta reported good earning and stock went up considerably as the rest of NASDAQ. In the meanwhile, Meta laid off 11,000 (13%) of their employees and will buy back $40 billion of their stock. It is all about keeping up its stock price. Other big tech including Google, Microsoft and Amazon are having sizable layoff too. As in the past, the layoff comes in waves and spreads from one sector to another.
    Only Apple of the FAANG stocks did not have a layoff, but their earning reporting is disappointing. Any insights on why this did not seem to matter to the market?
  • Quote of the Day - Courtesy of Bloomberg
    Looks like my backyard minus the ship.
    ”There are strange things done in the midnight sun
    By the men who moil for gold;
    The Arctic trails have their secret tales
    That would make your blood run cold;
    The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
    But the queerest they ever did see
    Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
    I cremated Sam McGee.

    The Cremation of Sam McGee - by Robert W Service
  • Apple’s Earnings Miss Target / NASDAQ Futures Decline
    Wouldn’t ya know? Apple’s up nearly 3% today (with NASDAQ down 1.5%). One of the few things I watch that’s up today.
    Strange day. Broad based selloff - equities and bonds. Gold’s off more than $50 to around $1860 - one of the biggest one-day dollar losses I can recall. Miners are off around 4.5% - but some are holding up much better.
  • Matthews Asia management changes to two funds
    i think its SIVLX that's available at Schwab but there's a 25k minimum. I'm kind of surprised that the fund is still only $63M after its been around this long and has performed as well as it has. But most people don't seem to be aware of it. I don't think they market the fund very much. Instead their focus is on marketing SIGIX which has almost $2 Billion in assets. As long as they don't liquidate the fund, small is okay.
    @MikeW you are correct on $25,000 at Schwab for SIVLX. I too noticed that it only has $63M in net assets. Hopefully, one of the smarter minds here can opine if that is a concern. Based on only $63M in net assets, an ER of 1.05% seems quite reasonable. And for that, you get two good minds in Paul Espinosa and Andrew Foster. Lydia So is not listed as a manager in the fund (she is in SFGIX/SIGIX), but I would think that in this small boutique company, she too would have input.
  • Jittery Investors Turn to Cash in Hunt for Yield - WSJ
    From Publication IRS 550, https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p550.pdf
    Pg 11, "Tax-Exempt Interest
    Interest on a bond used to finance government
    operations generally is not taxable if the bond is
    issued by a state, the District of Columbia, a
    U.S. possession, or any of their political subdivisions. Political subdivisions include:
    • Port authorities,
    • Toll road commissions,
    • Utility services authorities,
    • Community redevelopment agencies, and
    • Qualified volunteer fire departments (for
    certain obligations issued after 1980).
    There are other requirements for tax-exempt
    bonds. Contact the issuing state or local government agency or see sections 103 and 141
    through 150 of the Internal Revenue Code and
    the related regulations.
    Obligations that are not bonds. Interest on a state or local government
    obligation may be tax exempt even if
    the obligation is not a bond. For example, interest on a debt evidenced only by an ordinary
    written agreement of purchase and sale may be
    tax exempt. Also, interest paid by an insurer on
    default by the state or political subdivision may
    be tax exempt."
    YBB: States can limit deductibility of interest from FUNDS by requiring min % in US Gov or muni. This doesn't apply to directly held bonds.
    Bonds guaranteed by the US Gov are TAXABLE - because those aren't direct US obligations. FNMA, GNMA, etc are in this category.
    Pg 11-12, "Taxable Interest
    Interest on some state or local obligations is
    taxable.
    Federally guaranteed bonds. Interest on federally guaranteed state or local obligations issued after 1983 generally is taxable. This rule
    does not apply to interest on obligations guaranteed by the following U.S. government agencies.
    • Bonneville Power Authority (if the guarantee was under the Northwest Power Act as
    in effect on July 18, 1984).
    • Department of Veterans Affairs.
    • Federal home loan banks. (The guarantee
    must be made after July 30, 2008, in connection with the original bond issue during
    the period beginning on July 30, 2008, and
    ending on December 31, 2010 (or a renewal or extension of a guarantee so
    made) and the bank must meet safety and
    soundness requirements.)
    • Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
    • Federal Housing Administration.
    • Federal National Mortgage Association.
    • Government National Mortgage Corporation.
    • Resolution Funding Corporation.
    • Student Loan Marketing Association"
  • T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund to close to all investors
    A few observations about this fund:
    • The fund modified its objective (region) on March 1, 2012. Prior to that, it was the Emerging Europe & Mediterranean Fund. (Summary Prospectus, March 1, 2012)
    • Russia was always the 800 lb gorilla in the fund, much more so after 2012.
    • There were two major swoons in performance: 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia, and 2022 when, well, we all know that. In both instances, the market plummet began months before the actual invasions (5/19/2008 vs. 8/8/2008, and 10/25/2021 vs. 2/24/2022)
    • But for the current invasion that shut down the Russian stock market for a month, the fund would have been (slightly) profitable in its current incarnation (since March 2012), let alone over its full life. The fund lost 88.84% between 10/25/2021 and 3/7/2022, accounting for more than its total loss of 81.09% since the end of February 2012.
    Some more data:
    The fund had 67.4% of its assets in Russia as of 10/31/2021, and lost 58.5% in Feb 2022 alone.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/hanktucker/2022/03/01/these-15-stocks-and-10-funds-are-overexposed-to-russia-and-ukraine/?sh=7daecfe76e1f
    Back in Oct. 2008 when the fund was still investing in the Mediterranean, 16% of its holdings were in Egypt while 60% of its holdings were in Russia. Stocks in each of those countries fell around 60% between April and October 2008.
    2008 Annual Report
    Since March 2012, TREMX had a 94% coefficient of correlation with LETRX (proxy for Russia).
    Portfolio Visualizer correlations
    Prior to March 2012, TREMX had "just" an 88% correlation with LETRX. Its correlation with NEWFX (a broad based EM fund) was slightly higher at 90%. Though TREMX still had volatility resembling Russia's.
    Portfolio Visualizer correlations
    Unless otherwise labeled, all data from M* charts.