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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    One can research ownership info on M*. Each company's page has an "Ownership" tab, e.g. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/gme/ownership
    In addition to showing individual funds and fund complexes/institutions holding the largest number of shares, one can find the funds with the highest concentration of shares.
    Theoretically an institution with a large number of shares can move the stock price, but this assumes it has the flexibility to do so (i.e. the shares are not in index funds with stringent constraints). What matters to fund investors is the ownership concentration in funds they own.
    For example, SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT has 19.34% of its assets in GME (per M*). According to the fund's web page, as of January 29th, that was 19.47% of the fund.
    What Schwab Fundamental Large Company ETF FNDX is doing with 2½% (per M*) of its portfolio in GameStop is beyond me. I guess one has to read index providers' definitions carefully. According to Schwab, as of Jan 28, the fund's 1½% allocation to GME was its 5th largest, nestled between JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and AT&T (T).
    Reuters may have confused Lipper data regarding two different Fidelity funds that are clones of each other. Fidelity Series Intrinsic Opportunities FDMLX is a $13.7B fund, while Fidelity Flex Intrinsic Opportunities FFNPX is a tiny $36M fund.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-funds-idUSKBN29X0LZ
    As of their latest quarterly reports (posted Dec 29, 2020), the Flex fund did have 0.639% of its assets in GME, but in such a tiny fund that amounted to nothing ($161K). The larger Series fund held 44x as much stock, but that constituted 0.59% of the fund. Close, the funds are clones, but not the same.
    The Fidelity Series funds are for use by other Fidelity funds. So even the small 0.59% ownership is further diluted by its inclusion in other funds.
    The Intrinsic Opportunities funds (both of them) are managed by Tillinghast. FLPSX's position in GME amounts to just 0.09% of the fund, as of its latest quarterly report.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    @Derf,
    It appears that enough FPA shareholders approved the merger. Found this filing by Bragg Capital this morning:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1170611/000110465921009595/a21-4366_1497.htm
    Here is footnote concerning the merger:
    "... Includes compensation from the Funds, FPA Capital Fund, Inc., (reorganized into Queens Road Small Cap effective February 1, 2021)..."
    Checked my FPA Capital account this morning...my shares were switched to FPA Queens Road Small Cap Instl. shares as of this morning; shares were adjusted for the lower NAV of the FPA Queens Road Small Cap Instl NAV price than the FPA Capital NAV.
    Just found these news releases:
    https://fpa.com/docs/default-source/FPA-News-Documents/fpa-qr-capital-merger-press-release-final.pdf?sfvrsn=2
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fpa-announces-completion-fpa-capital-143000983.html
  • Wanna play a game? Silver price being pushed this morning by Reddit Army.
    @rsorden
    .......Type the name of the pieces you own in the search box at the top of the Ebay link below to discover current pricing of your pieces; IF they are listed for sale at Ebay. The link is active for your use for whatever else at Ebay.
    If silver bullion pricing moves a lot above and beyond its "normal" range for the past 10 years, then, IMHO; the bullion price will overwhelm the collectible price, with the exception of truly collectible pieces; which would likely reside in the rare coin area.
    Folks will again start to unload "melt silver" coins and related items. The jewelry stores and pawn shops will have a lot of traffic. This was the pattern that persisted for about 6 months in the late '70's.
    I've used Ebay for many years to determine what the general public is willing to pay for item "x" to have and hold in their hand, not an etf or other investment market device. The below link is for "closed auctions/bids" for silver bullion related items. This list will continue to update as auctions/bids close. This is a long list that one may scroll through to older dates.
    Closed auction prices, Ebay.
    ADD: Silver retail sites freeze from demand
  • Wanna play a game? Silver price being pushed this morning by Reddit Army.
    I wonder how long this "silver squeeze" is gonna last? It's a waaay bigger market than GME or AMC and I'm not sure those keyboard warrior Reddit users have the patience to wait for a 1500% return that likely won't ever come.
    Curious what this will do to for all the silver coins I purchased last year...mostly collectible coins, or coins with cool designs (my fave being the Star Wars series with a Darth Vader helmet, Stormtrooper helmet, Death Star, frozen Han)...those were all waaaay more expensive than the spot price, but only a limited number were produced, so they are highly collectible.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Reuters: The Fidelity Intrinsic Opportunities fund, for instance, owns 9.75% of GameStop’s outstanding shares, according to Lipper data. Yet that position accounts for just 0.64% of the fund’s assets. The fund is up 5.6% for the year-to-date, approximately 1.5 percentage points less than the benchmark Russell 2000 index.
    The BlackRock Advantage Small Cap Core fund holds 0.03% of its assets in GameStop, according to Lipper.
    Overall, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, owned about 9.2 million shares in GameStop as of Dec. 31, 2020, spread over several funds. If BlackRock has not since sold any of those shares, its stake’s value is up $2.4 billion since the start of the year.
  • Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
    Along the same vein as Grantham, in this podcast, David Rosenberg thinks stocks are priced for perfection.
    https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/sthh_0109/
    And here too:
    https://financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-life-is-not-going-back-to-normal-even-if-the-market-doesnt-see-it-yet
    “ Of the 10 million who have still not found a job after being laid off this past year, we estimate that only three million will come back to the workforce. That leaves seven million unemployed long term on top of the four million who have already exited the labour market.
    Life is not going back to normal even if the market doesn’t yet see it and the consensus builds that we are heading to the Roaring Twenties.”
    And on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/econguyrosie/status/1355187715919257604?s=21
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Yes they made 1 billion on paper, but what happens when they start to dump 9 million shares back into the market ? I googled share holders of GameStop & up pops Vanguard 5.4 million & Fido 6.8 million. these aren't total holdings as of now, but an earlier total. Do you suppose they draw straws to see who gets to sell the first million shares ??!!
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Don't be surprised if this young man shows up here on MFO
    I wish my daughter had taken my advice about selling some of her Beanie Babies when they became a bubble! Unfortunately, she didn’t and we still have a closet full of them. At least our puppy has found a use for them.
    I bought my nephew and niece each one when they first became a rage. My nephew sold his for something like $1,200 and my niece got about $500 for hers.
  • The Best Core Stock Funds - M*
    I saw this list in the M* article. Pretty hard to create a more obvious list than this for suggested core holdings.
    Lemme get this straight: Buy a Total Stock Market index and/or S&P 500 Index for your core holding? Duh.
    Moving past the obvious, if you remove ALL of the (unbelievable number of) Total Stock Market Index and S&P 500 Index, what do you really have?
    One that you have is OAKMX, a 2-star, dog of a fund that's been mired in 3+ consecutive years of horrific underperformance, that you couldn't pay me to own. Pretty much ditto on FMIHX which is already DOWN 3+% YTD.
    The author should have just stuck with the obvious.
  • EQUITY. A wee bit twitchy this morning, eh?
    Most here, if you're not operating a hedge fund; may have your own form of theoretical downside equity protection via some form of hopefully, productive high quality bonds. Presuming none of you had to cover big short positions in equity(s); bonds didn't do much this week to offer more support for a portfoio.
    We'll discover how the markets move along next week, eh?
    With this, I'll post the list again; which may give you a sense of how bonds within your holdings mix fared last week and YTD.
    JANUARY 29 WEEK / YTD .....Data M* performance
    --- AGG = +.05% / -.74% (widely used bond benchmark, mixed holdings)
    --- MINT = + .00% / +.08% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = + .02% / +.02% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + .05% /-.28% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.05% /-1.1% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.17% / +.27% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = +.21% / -1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +.08% /-3.6% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.27% / -4.7% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.09 /-5.4% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    --- BAGIX = +.05% / -.63 (active managed, plain vanilla, h.q. bond fund)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -.38% / -.38% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -.07% / -1.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • Don't be surprised if this young man shows up here on MFO
    Well, the GameStop stock boom has been quite a lesson for Jaydyn Carr. Here's edited excerpts from a Washington Post article.
    By Sydney Page
    Jan. 30, 2021 at 3:00 a.m. PST
    The GameStop stock surge has benefited small-scale investors, many of them surprised at their unlikely windfalls. Perhaps none so much as a 10-year-old boy from San Antonio.
    The fifth-grader was gifted 10 GameStop shares, each at $6.19, as a Kwanzaa present from his mother in December 2019. She bought the stock simply because her son liked to buy video games at the store and she wanted to teach him a little about the stock market.
    In a matter of minutes this week, Jaydyn Carr became an unexpected beneficiary of the market mayhem, as his $60 stake in the video game retailer grew to $3,200. “Is this really happening right now?” Jaydyn’s mother, Nina Carr, remembers asking herself. “I couldn’t believe it was true.”
    Carr, 31, was working in her home office on Wednesday when a slew of news alerts about GameStop’s Reddit-spurred surge started appearing on her phone. Her jaw dropped. Once she absorbed the news, she sprinted to her son’s bedroom. “I was so excited for him,” she said. In simple terms, she described to Jaydyn what happened to his GameStop shares and why they suddenly skyrocketed.
    “She was saying that stocks hardly ever go up this way, so if I wanted to sell it, we should sell it now,” Jaydyn said.
    Ultimately, the choice was his. “It wouldn’t be fair for me to make the decision on his behalf,” Carr explained. Besides, she added, “if he lost the money, it would have been a lesson learned.” So, she asked her only child the burning question: “Do you want to sell or stay?” To her relief, Jaydyn decided to sell.
    When Carr bought the GameStop shares in 2019 as a Kwanzaa gift, her sole intention in purchasing the stock was to teach her then-eight-year-old son about Ujamaa, which means, “cooperative economics.” It’s one of the seven principles of Kwanzaa. “The goal was to ensure he knows the value of a dollar and how to manage money,” Carr said, explaining that Ujamaa is the idea of sharing wealth while also strengthening personal finances and self-reliance. Carr said that since Jaydyn’s father passed away in February 2014, it has been a priority for her to educate her son about money management.
    “I am very frugal, and saving is a big part of what I do. Being the only parent, I want to set a good example for him,” she said. “I got into finance when his dad passed away. I wanted to make sure his future was in good hands.” Carr — who is a public health nutritionist and runs her own business — felt the gift was an opportunity to reinforce the importance of investments.
    “I was so excited. I thought it wasn’t even reality,” Jaydyn said. Carr then walked her son through the selling process, and he cashed out his shares. The plan is to put $2,200 in Jaydyn’s savings account and then invest the remaining $1,000 as a mother-son team. According to Jaydyn, he has already learned a lot from his mom: “She is always teaching me what to do in emergencies in life and how to save money to one day buy a car and a house,” he said. For Jaydyn, this is just the beginning. He has already got big plans: “I am now looking for companies that pay dividends,” he said confidently.

    image
    (Image is from the Washington Post.)
  • Small Caps
    Really crazy performance history of feast or famine. MSSMX has been the #1 ranked in its cat 3x including 2020 and this year, but in 2014-2016 threw up a string of 99-96-96.
    On the shorts issue...keep in mind that MSSMX was UP 150% in 2020. The big squeeze problems seem to be a 2021 thing, with GME for example being a January spectacle. Also, it does not appear to use leverage, and if so, the big risk then would be downside protection when all heck breaks loose on any of the squeeze targets. If so, trusting MS to be all over that. Welcome further comments.
    All that said, its closest domestic SCG peer (via Fido menu) is behind a whopping 20% YTD TR, UP a mere 13.5%.
    There's something happening here
    What it is ain't exactly clear

    -Stills
  • More talk & thoughts on using Monte- Carlo The good & bad
    Hi Old Joe,
    It's good to hear from you. As you likely know I retired almost 25 years ago. At that time no Monte Carlo-like codes were available to me so I wrote my own simple version of that tool. It served me well but was not all inclusive.
    Today's versions of that tool are much more complete and powerful. They will aid potential retirees in making good decisions. I will always take the opportunity to encourage their application for that purpose.
    That 's surely a far distant application from their original use which was to help design the atomic bomb. The current applications are a tiny bit more sedate but more widely applied. The investment industry is a most frequent user to help in the retirement decision making process. But you knew that already.
    Added comment: If a professional advisor does not make use of a sophisticated Monte Carlo tool, he or she is short changing his client. Monte Carlo is certainly not the total picture but can be a significant input. It is available so it should be exercised.
    Best Wishes
  • The Best Core Stock Funds - M*
    These mutual funds and ETFs blend growth and value large-cap stocks and earn Morningstar Analyst Ratings of Gold.
    image
    Link
  • Small Caps
    OK...MSSMX UP 150% in 2020. UP 30% YTD.
    Read it again slowly and try to understand it.
    On the short squeeze question, speaking generally to all readers/posters...
    I would caution limiting one's concerns about this issue to just SCs and/or any specific fund, e.g., MSSMX. This is potentially a very large, diverse problem that could affect investors in many ways, yet TBD, and may be affecting some/sevral of your holdings unbeknownst to you right now. That said...
    Most recent portfolio data, even on the MS site, is from 09/30/20. It does NOT appear any of the short squeeze companies*** are held by MSSMX, at least not in the top ~50%-60% of its holdings. Invite others to look for some as well - could have missed one.
    ***UPDATE: SFIX is on both the Fido holdings and Short Squeeze company lists below (as a 5.21% holding per Fido list) but not sure if it's a problem child short.
    Also note:
    (1) These are dated holdings lists and much could have changed in the 4th Qtr and/or Jan 2021. Unless there were significant changes, does NOT appear to be a problem. (If it is, it's currently a GOOD problem to have. Just sayin'.)
    (2) Keep in mind this is Morgan Stanley we're talking about here. If anybody stands a chance of being on the right side of how these squeezes turn out, I like my chances teaming up with them.
    (3) I am NOT recommending that any readers/posters BUY/HOLD this fund. If you are considering doing so, do so after your own DD and at your own risk/peril. Like all MFs, it does NOT come with a warning label and "Nobody rings a bell" when it's time to consider getting out. (Thanks Art Cashin!)
    (4) If you do BUY it, note that Dramamine is not included with your purchase.
    (5) Lastly, and FWIW, it is an (intended, at least) LT hold for me and like they say, I'm "Enjoy(ing) the ride!"
    https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/registered-investment-advisor/product-and-performance/mutual-funds/us-equity/inception-portfolio.shareClass.I.html
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/61744J614?type=o-NavBar
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-biggest-short-squeezes-in-the-stock-market-including-gamestop-and-amc-11611842270
    @Graust I recall you helping me several times over the years. Happy to have reciprocated at least in part. Be sure to Buckle Up on this one.
  • Why is much of the market getting crushed today?
    A term referred to above left me wondering for a long time: what does it mean to "make a market" in a particular security? It means 5% or more ownership (or trading volume, perhaps, too?)
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Stocks that are heavily shorted are most susceptible to Robinhood trading
    ISTM the risk of a short squeeze (and manipulation thereof) increases rapidly as the magnitude of short positions increase. A stock that is shorted more than 100% (by one investor borrowing the stock to short, then another investor borrowing the same stock to short again) must almost surely experience a positive feedback loop if its price starts to rise significantly and investors attempt to buy "fictitious" shares to cover.
    There's already Reg SHO in place to control shorting. Notably Rule 203 that requires short sellers to locate shares to short before shorting. It would not seem to be difficult to enhance this rule to require the location not only of shares to short, but shares of a company that has not been 100% shorted (or 50% shorted, or whatever threshold works).
    https://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm
    This wouldn't protect investors from getting squeezed, but it would seem to impede the feedback loop.
    And how is RH trading different from free fast trading at ML or Fido ?
    How is buying a lottery ticket different from investing in a stock? The recreation value of the former is greater while the expected return of the latter is greater. Robinhood as a platform offers more "fun".
    They can browse the 100 most-held stocks among fellow users for inspiration. An entertainment ecosystem has risen up alongside Robinhood; TikTok videos under #robinhoodstocks have millions of views. In some ways, Robinhood reflects how Silicon Valley mastered the art of manufacturing behavioral loops, encouraging an app user to log back in one more time or spend one more minute engaged.
    Same Bloomberg article, pick your source of choice:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-19/robinhood-s-role-in-the-gamification-of-investing-quicktake
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/robinhoods-role-in-the-gamification-of-investing/2020/12/19/83b310ca-41bf-11eb-b58b-1623f6267960_story.html
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    this thing turns systemic real quick and our portfolio's get drawn down by 50%-60%...then and only then we are going to have a problem with the Reddit/WSB approach,
    This is new territory with unknown risks. Question is what can SEC do about it? They seem to be way behind the matter.
  • Emerald Small Cap Value Fund change in liquidation date
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421001868/fp0061770_497.htm
    497 1 fp0061770_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Emerald Small Cap Value Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated January 29, 2021
    to the Fund’s
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated August 31, 2020, as supplemented
    As previously disclosed, on December 8, 2020, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, a series of the Trust, determined to close and liquidate the Fund on or about January 11, 2021. The date for such liquidation is now expected to be on or about February 12, 2021 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    If the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Any Mutual funds up on the day (1/29) ?
    FSMEX = up 2.19%
    Healthcare mapped here:
    https://finviz.com/map.ashx
    Volatility Index:
    VIX up 9.53% to $33.09