Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CDs and Money Markets
    Some people are better at search queries than others. So let me offer a little tip: if one is looking for a page containing an exact phrase (preferably of more than a couple of words), one can try executing a search for that precise phrase. Here, we know that the document of interest contains the phrase: Eliminate Exclusion of Interest on State and Local Bonds
    Many search engines use double quotes ("") to denote phrases. Unfortunately, Duckduckgo isn't one of them. Several of the top results it returns are not particularly helpful. But Google still seems to do a decent job of respecting quotes. Here is what a Google search returns.
    In my previous post I gave its top search result, a page that is replete with links to various documents including the doc you're looking for.
    The second result is the Barron's article that fred495 quoted. The sixth result, Cato, starts off by stating that "a copy of House Budget Committee Republicans’ draft menu of reconciliation options leaked to the press."
    That would explain why you couldn't find it under official memos. It was for internal Republican use. Also, FWIW, the House Budget Committee is not the same thing as the House Ways and Means Committee (though you won't find this GOP draft memo in either place).
    The rules of the House require that the Budget Committee’s membership be composed of five members from the Committee on Ways and Means, five members from the Committee on Appropriations, and one member from the Committee on Rules.
    https://budget.house.gov/about/committee
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    28 March, 2025:
    Asset Backed Securities recommended re: risk/reward picture.
  • Trump cuts threaten a measurement lab critical for advanced chips and medical devices
    this brings back a trump 1.0 anecdote where he could not conceive\admit to a difference between knowing how a cell phone works vs knowing how to use one.
    for MAGA, false confidence can overcome any amount of objective ignorance.
    the genius appears to mistake his cell phone for a tv remote :
    image
  • CRDBX Fund
    This fund portfolio consist of the following:
    iShares Core S&P 500 ETF-66.12%
    Direxion Daily S&P500® Bull 3X ETF-31.12%
    This week’s performance was 0%. Sound like they have gone to cash.
  • CDs and Money Markets
    @msf,
    I was (am) not interested in the Muni bond tax exempt matter. I want to read what you called “Menu of Options” which I presume is the same as what @fred495 called House Budget Committee document. May I get a link to it please? (I normally go to the House Ways And Means website for tax stuff but this document likely will not be there.)
    Just an FYI - In the second half of 2024, I made a post asking members to weigh in about the possibility of a future (in the current or next Congress) loss of tax- exempt status for Muni (State and Local) bonds. I do not think I received any guesses but within a day or two I contemplated the matter and asked to ignore my request. With my inept search skills, I was not able to find those posts but be assured I am not interested in that matter.
    Thanks.
  • CDs and Money Markets
    The House's January "Menu of Options" is just that - a laundry list of "some 200 ways the government could raise extra funds to offset the impact of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts." It's a bunch of bullet item talking points with no detail. Why not also ask about the possible treatment of private activity bonds? That's listed separately in the 200 bullet point memo.
    Lots of spaghetti (with no sauce) being thrown up against a wall. Further, a month later the House passed (engrossed) H.Con.Res.14.
    For anyone who really wants to follow what's going on, the National Association of Bond Lawyers (NABL) maintains a useful page, "Tracking Tax Reform in 2025". Last update was March 28th.
    https://www.nabl.org/blogs/tax-reform-2025/
    What [the February House Resolution] Means for the Municipal Market: At this time, Republicans are still aiming to use this budget reconciliation process to address the debt ceiling. In theory, the process would need to conclude before the approach of the debt ceiling x-date, which is likely some time in or around May. This week’s vote represents a significant advance in the Republican effort to address the expirations of the TCJA in the first half of this year. While this plan is ambitious, municipal market participants should prepare for developments to occur along this timeline. Despite inclusion on the House Budget Committee’s “Menu of Options,” the tax exemption continues to enjoy broad bipartisan support, and we have heard minimal threats to the tax-exempt status of municipal bonds from congressional offices. It is worth noting, however, that details surrounding offsets and revenue raisers will likely only manifest after both chambers pass identical budget resolutions and the elimination or reduction of the tax exemption for municipal bonds remains a potential option for negotiators.
    Removing tax exempt status for muni bonds would blow a huge hole in state budgets. Red and blue states, both.
    The states with the most state and local government debt per capita are spread across the country, including both very populous states such as California and Texas as well as sparsely populated Alaska.
    ...
    As a percentage of state GDP, state and local government debt ranges from a low of 4.9 percent in Wyoming to a high of 24.7 percent in Kentucky.
    https://www.governing.com/finance/state-and-local-governments-with-the-most-debt-per-capita
    Then there's market distortion. If current bonds keep their tax exempt status, then they will command a large premium. Republicans typically oppose tax laws that create distortions. (So do many economists.) OTOH, imagine the howling from holders of existing bonds if their income suddenly becomes taxable - causing their bonds to lose significant value overnight.
  • Mid-Year MFO Ratings Posted ... New Navigation Bar
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 28 March 2025. Flows remain updated through 14 March.
  • How Tariffs Could Shock America’s Power System
    Some of you may recall my unease over the years at the fact that we no longer manufacture many types of electrical transformers that are absolutely critical to any large grid system. Many of those transformers are special-order items currently made only in China, and that have lengthy time-frames to design and manufacture.
    Following are excerpts from a recent Wall Street Journal report, which goes into some detail on this issue:
    Transformers used in power grids are especially vulnerable to trade disruptions
    America’s power grid is due for some big investments. Tariffs could now make that much costlier.
    As surging power demand from places such as data centers is set to strain the system, transformers, the nuts and bolts of the power system, look particularly vulnerable. These are devices that step up or down voltages as electricity moves from power plants to homes and factories. New ones are also required every time a new source of electricity—whether wind, solar or natural gas—connects to the grid. The lack of these components can therefore hold up more power from being brought online.
    The power industry has already been experiencing a shortage of transformers, for which demand is expected to jump even more in the coming years. Suppliers have been reluctant to invest large sums of capital to expand production capacity because such investments have long break-even timelines. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that about 55% of in-service distribution transformer units are older than 33 years and approaching their end of life.
    So far, the Trump administration has imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as a 10% across-the-board tariff on China. But more could come: The one-month pause on Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico is set to expire in early March. Meanwhile, Trump has ordered federal agencies to explore reciprocal tariffs on trading partners around the world. He has also floated tariffs on copper.
    Transformers could become a chokepoint. Only about 20% of transformer demand can be met by the domestic supply chain, according to Wood Mackenzie, which also estimated that transformer prices have already risen 70% to 100% since January 2020 because of inflation for raw materials such as electrical steel and copper.
    Mexico, Canada and China are important sources of electrical equipment to the U.S. In 2024, China accounted for over 32% of U.S. low-voltage transformer equipment imports and Mexico accounted for 36% of high-voltage transformer imports. Canada accounted for about 16% of U.S. imports of high-voltage switchgear and 100% of imported utility poles. Utilities typically go through a lengthy process to test the reliability of transformers they are purchasing and tend to require custom specifications, so it isn’t an easy process to switch to a new supplier.
    Tariffs will pile new cost pressures on an already-tight grid. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities said its residential customers’ average monthly bill is expected to increase by 17% to 20% for the 12-month period starting June 2025, partly due to data center-driven demand growth. Nationwide, electricity prices have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% over the last five years, a considerable acceleration since the preceding five years when prices were roughly flat, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    Also worth watching: If the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum do result in a reshoring of those energy-intensive industries, that itself would add to long-term power demand.

    Comment: How likely is it that the current administration has the slightest idea of what transformers are or how crucial they are to the United States economy and manufacturing capability?
  • CDs and Money Markets
    @fred495, anyone,
    Could please share a link to the House budget committee document mentioned above? Thanks
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    FD1000 said: "This is a political thread that should be posted in the OFF threads."
    “Another wipeout walloped Wall Street Friday,” Stan Choe of the Associated Press wrote today. The S&P 500 had one of its worst days in two years, dropping 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 715 points, losing 1.7% of its value. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.7%. On Tuesday, news dropped that the administration’s blanket firings and wildly shifting tariff policies have dropped consumer confidence to a low it has not hit since January 2021. Today’s stock market tumble started after the Commerce Department released data showing that consumer prices are rising faster than economists expected.
    AIG chief international economist James Knightley said: “We are moving in the wrong direction and the concern is that tariffs threaten higher prices, which means the inflation prints are going to remain hot.” Business leaders like lower interest rates, which reduce borrowing costs and make it cheaper to finance business initiatives, but with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve will be less likely to cut interest rates.

    @FD1000- Right you are! All of this is political and will have absolutely no impact on the financial arena.
    (Note: Above information quoted from Heather Cox Richardson, 3/28/25.)
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    FD1000 said: "First, this thread is political and should be in OFF forum."
    “Another wipeout walloped Wall Street Friday,” Stan Choe of the Associated Press wrote today. The S&P 500 had one of its worst days in two years, dropping 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 715 points, losing 1.7% of its value. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.7%. On Tuesday, news dropped that the administration’s blanket firings and wildly shifting tariff policies have dropped consumer confidence to a low it has not hit since January 2021. Today’s stock market tumble started after the Commerce Department released data showing that consumer prices are rising faster than economists expected.
    AIG chief international economist James Knightley said: “We are moving in the wrong direction and the concern is that tariffs threaten higher prices, which means the inflation prints are going to remain hot.” Business leaders like lower interest rates, which reduce borrowing costs and make it cheaper to finance business initiatives, but with rising inflation, the Federal Reserve will be less likely to cut interest rates.

    @FD1000- Right you are! All of this is political and will have absolutely no impact on the financial arena.
    (Note: Above information quoted from Heather Cox Richardson, 3/28/25.)
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    @FDSo, just ignore the coup day by day. 1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
    Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.

    First, this thread is political and should be in OFF forum.
    Second, I didn't sell, and I'm doing well, as I have done for years. My portfolio was at its peak at the close last Friday 3/28/2025. If you know my style and goals, you know what I do. I hope your portfolio is doing great, BTW.
    The best thing, as usual, is to do nothing and stop reading the scary stories. You should design your portfolio based on your goals with limited trades.
    If you are a good trader, watch markets in real time and make adjustments.
    So, just ignore the coup. Nothing to see here. Business as usual... If a coup doesn't vitally impact investing decisions, then nothing does.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    @FD1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
    Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.
    First, this thread is political and should be in OFF forum.
    Second, I didn't sell, and I'm doing well, as I have done for years. My portfolio was at its peak at the close last Friday 3/28/2025. If you know my style and goals, you know what I do. I hope your portfolio is doing great, BTW.
    The best thing, as usual, is to do nothing and stop reading the scary stories. You should design your portfolio based on your goals with limited trades.
    If you are a good trader, watch markets in real time and make adjustments.
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The US stock market is by far the best one long term."
    I believe US stocks will perform well in the long-term
    and most stock investors should have a healthy allocation to the US.
    This does not necessarily mean the equity portion of their portfolios should be 100% US equities.
    For example, wouldn't it have been beneficial for retirees (presumably withdrawing from portfolios)
    to have foreign stocks in addition to an S&P 500 fund during the "Lost Decade"?
    "So, it boils down to timing and trading."
    No, it really doesn't.
    Numerous studies have indicated excessive trading often leads to lower returns.
    It boils down to creating a sensible investment plan with an asset allocation
    suitable to an investor's risk tolerance/risk capacity,
    and then sticking to the plan (making adjustments as needed based on life changes).
    Some investors may find it helpful to work with a financial advisor to develop this plan.
    Can you find where I said 100% in US stocks?
    Any time you switch funds, it is timing, and, as you noted, most are doing it wrong. If you hold static, your portfolio will suffer for many years. (During 2000-10, for 10 years: SPY lost about 9% and QQQ lost over 40%...During 2010-2024 the SPY+QQQ were great.)
    The solution is good analysis, knowing funds/ETFs very well, and limited/smart timing. A good example is Charles Lynn Bolin's articles.
    A sensible investment plan sounds great; the devil is in the details.
    Same with financial advisor, in theory, it's a good idea. In real life, not so much.
    Problem 1: Catch 22: If your investment knowledge is below average, you will not know if your FA (financial adviser) is good. If your investment knowledge is above average, you will not need one.
    Problem 2: A FA is jack of all trades and a master of none. Anytime you need a real complicated advice, he/she can't answer it. Anything that relates to taxes, you need to see a CPA, anything that relates to trusts, you must see an attorney.
    Problem 3: A FA can't promise you any future performance or even risk-adjusted performance.
    Problem 4: The highest commission vehicles for a FA are annuities or a guarantee of something. These are usually bad for the clients.
    You probably heard a typical FA claim that they are fiduciaries. It is correct that fiduciary is better than not, but it doesn't guarantee much.
    In theory, a FA puts their client interests first. In reality, it doesn't work that well.
    This is how it should work for a typical person in typical situations. You seek a FA advice, a good FA should collect all your information, analyze it, and come up with exactly what to do in about 2-3 hours. They should charge you maybe $1000-1500. You can implement the plan for years to come, unless you have a major change. This means, you don't need the FA for years to come. In the event you have a major change and need advice, one hour of consultation should be enough; maybe another $300 fee.
    Remember, any time your FA wants you to stay with them for years and collect his/her fee as a % of your portfolio, it is a bad choice. You should only pay them by the hour. You can find good fee only FA at www.garrettplanningnetwork.com/
    If a FA followed the above, they would starve. This is why it would be very difficult to find a great, reliable, honest, low-fee FA that puts their client's interests first.
    The best idea is to learn and get better. You spent at least 12 years in school; why can you not spend just 100 hours learning the basics?
    Most people need to handle and manage their money for decades, why not educate yourself? It's not a brain surgery.
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    @FD1000 who asked "What is your record of forecasting, timing, and trading?"
    Good question. What is yours other than your say so?
    First, I don't write articles, get paid, or try to convince you of anything, while this article, among many in the past, has proven wrong.
    Second, if you want to see my record for risk-adjusted performance, you can read about it at my site. See it (here). If you want to see my system, read (here).
    Again, I don't promote it. It is just there if you want to learn something new.
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    @hank - That Silverado w/a 4-banger, I'm severely puzzled as to what they expect to do with that other than proclaim some kind of status badge. IMHO what a massive waste. I wasn't aware that Chevy would even equip one that way and ISTM that little 4 cal will be straining its heart out.
    @Mark - I (perhaps deceptively) omitted that the guy’s 4-banger is turbo charged. I’d expect for most purposes (short of towing a big trailer) it would perform well. Everything I’ve read about turbos is that they’re expensive to maintain and don’t last as long. I won’t say “never.” But given other reasonably priced options, a turbo wouldn’t be my first choice.
    OTHO - I’d imagine it would be a lot fun driving a small to mid-sized turbo-charged auto. I looked at Toyota’s slightly larger Crown before buying my Camry. Both hybrids. But the top of the line “sports version” of the Crown also boasts a turbo (in addition to its hybrid powertrain). Lists for $50K+ It’s said to be a hoot to drive!
    Link to story / Silverado & F150 4 cylinder trucks
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    old_joe,
    thx for worrying about toyota (customer since 1980s).
    just last year, me another team-mate were trying convince others in our sports league that tesla was a toyota wanna-be.
    we failed mainly because we didnt own a new one (of either) and were told we couldnt comprehend the difference.
    https://www.valueplays.net/2025/03/29/durable-goods-orders-rise/
    they are the only global mfg w/ waiting lists, will be ok.
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs

    hank, am so happy to see w/can sometimes agree here.
    there are more than enough fossil patriots taking their luxury suv and superduty truck 1/2 mile for snacks. no one will force me into being one.
    and no matter how good and\or cheap a car may be, i dont want to clearly support american foes, exterior(byd) nor interior (tesla).
    looks like the 10 and 15 yr-old american-made toyotas are going to be around the house a bit longer.
    derf, this is basically an order to exclude tesla w/out using the name.
    autos and light (non-industrial trucks)
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/4426291-start-the-tariff-engines-what-does-made-in-america-mean?
    the non-gop american consumer can EASILY make this bias laughable simply by never considering a tesla purchase.
  • WealthTrack Show

    yardeni bumped his recession educated GUESS from 20% to 35%.
    for some, that may be confirmation for reaching or staying at your lowest non-zero equity allocation, and he offers paid services for advice on shuffling specific portfolios whether timely or not.
    the forecasting trade has much uncertainty no matter how good the process.
    and for that reason only, dont go all-in or all-out.