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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time? ---- Maybe Not......
    @BaluBalu Here's a partial answer to your question. The Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) website can be accessed here. That site lists it's total asset value at $111B with 50% of the portfolio being in the residential sector. The Q1 2022 update states "Within residential....the portfolio is predominantly suburban, garden style apartments and is 85% concentrated in the Southern and Western U.S.". I am aware that BREIT made a $6B investment in single family housing rentals last year.
  • Money Market Rates - interesting again?
    @JD Last auction reported was 1.7% for 13wk and 2.2 for 26wk, and I'd think in the auction Monday, those would pop at least to the range you mentioned.
    I may go pretty small on this auction and save some $ for the next ones, probably with higher yields like you say.
  • TRP. TOTR. ETF
    Trading volume 6/22 = 114 shares. Over one round-lot.
    Sure, go "all-in".
  • Money Market Rates - interesting again?

    Also plan to add more short duration Treasuries (through Treasury Direct) during next week's auction of 13-week and 26-week bills. The announcements come out tomorrow.
    @AndyJ Probably going to get closer to 2% to 2.4% annualized on those short-term Treasuries, right? That's probably a decent move.
    Hopefully, after the next few Fed meetings, we will be talking about ~4% returns on short-term Treasuries (6 mos).
  • Money Market Rates - interesting again?
    I'm just using short-laddered T-bills purchased at Fidelity.
    As I type this, T-bill rates for 3M/6M/1-yr are: 1.5% / 2.4% / 2.8%.
    I fired the middle-man (MM funds) and just went straight to the source.
  • Money Market Rates - interesting again?
    @JD, I'd forgotten FZDXX existed until you posted about it earlier. I have a pretty good pile of it now and really like those upticks in yield.
    Also plan to add more short duration Treasuries (through Treasury Direct) during next week's auction of 13-week and 26-week bills. The announcements come out tomorrow.
  • Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time? ---- Maybe Not......
    Here is statistical info that lends support to the comment @Junkster made:
    imageThose with cash and/or other financial resources are not yet being squeezed.
    Here is a comment that focuses on the single family rental market issue @hank mentioned:
    The U.S. doesn't have enough homes to meet demand — even now, as fewer people want to buy in the face of rising mortgage rates...Rising mortgage rates could actually put more pressure on the rental market: As first-time buyers put off a new purchase, they'll continue to rely on renting.
    Sadly, but not surprisingly, higher rents are hitting households with limited incomes the hardest. But, from an investment perspective, high demand for available rentals suggests there may continue to be opportunities for some single family rental investments. (A little over 10% of the high yield sleeve of my portfolio is invested in residential rental reits.)
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    Those are for TIPS purchases in the secondary market with bid-ask (you sell at bid, buy at ask). Coupons were fixed when the TIPS were issued, and real YTM shown is based on quoted price.
    Treasury auctions work a bit differently. Most Treasury auctions are oversubscribed (2x-3x is considered normal). Treasury sets a clearing price that will get it the amount it needs from competitive bids (by institutional investors) and all noncompetitive bids (by retail and institutional investors). EVERYBODY gets the same clearing price - this is a great benefit for retail buyers. About 1-2 hours after the auction time, Treasury announces the clearing price, amount it purchased, total orders it received. It will take until the settlement day for Treasuries to show up in your account (a placeholder entry may be shown before that).
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    I notice that this morning on Bloomberg that 5-year TIPS yield is at 0.45% and the coupon (rate) at 0.13% (round off from 0.125%).
    https://bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us
    In addition, at Fidelity, the same 5-yr TIPS stated the Expected yield at 0.423%. Are these yield the same as "Real yield" noted earlier this week at 0.54%.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Fixed annuity yields are finally back to being significantly higher than CDs. They are another option to consider - for IRAs, for savers over 59½, for people who will be at least that old when the contract penalty period expires.
    For example, instead of going out 10 years to get a CD yielding 4%, one can buy a 5 year fixed annuity ($10K min) from Reliance Standard (AM Best A++) yielding 4.05%.
    Reliance Standard 5 year annuity
    Unlike a CD that at best lets you withdraw interest w/o penalty, some fixed annuities like this one also permit annual withdrawals of up to 10% of the balance. And unlike a multi-year CD, there's no phantom income - the interest is tax deferred until withdrawn. Though there is a potential 10% IRS tax penalty if you don't satisfy an exception (e.g. over age 59½).
    A broker selling you an annuity takes a cut just as a broker does when selling you a CD. At maturity you get your full principal and promised interest. With either product.
    On the short end, Treasuries are looking good compared with CDs. Similar nominal rates plus exemption from state income tax.
    Current rates (CDs, Treasuries, and more) at Vanguard
  • Money Market Rates - interesting again?
    I own FNSXX in my Wellstrade acct. Current 7 day yield- 1.34%. As noted by others it still will not even begin to cover the current inflation fiasco.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    There does seem to be a bump in CD interest rates this week, apparently in response to the .75% Fed interest rate hike last week. There appears to be more movement in the shorter term CD rates (1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, 1 year), but a slight uptick in CD rates for longer term rates. It is a pretty good bet that the Feds will increase rates significantly during the remainder of 2022, so by year end, I am expecting 3%+rates to be pretty common for 9 month and 1 year CDs, and I think 6 month CDs will be much closer to 3%. When I look at CD opportunities, I look up the banks credit rating and only use banks with at least an "A" rating. I prefer CDs that pay interest on a monthly basis, but those are not as plentiful compared to CDs that pay the interest at the maturity date.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    The new (investor) interactive charts have less information. They don't have a volume bar chart underneath. Volume is also missing when you mouse over the graph.
    The "old" interactive charts, if displaying a single ETF, would provide open, close, high, and low prices for the ETF when mousing over. That's missing in the "investor" charts.
    The "old" interactive charts for ETFs offered windows smaller than a month (1, 5, 15 days), and depending on how small the window was, would display data at frequencies of 1, 5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes in addition to (or instead of) daily, weekly, and monthly.
    So there's a fair amount of data that is lost when migrating from the "old" interactive charts to the "investor" ones. All that seems to be gained is being able to see the date windows without having to coax them to appear.
    Using the date windows to actually input dates is quirky, old or new, but in different ways.
    The new ("investor") charts default to "monthly" for short timeframes. When you set the frequency to daily and then try to display, say, 10/5/21 through 11/8/21, the chart flips the frequency back to monthly. Consequently it resets the dates to 10/29/21 (start) and 10/29/21 (end) - a single data point. These dates work okay with the "old" charts.
    The "old" interactive charts quirks appear with even shorter timeframes, generally under a month. That's when the charts flip the granularity to minutes from days. That data seems flaky, but I haven't looked too closely at it.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    @Sven, 5-yr TIPS coupon was specified as 0.125% in the auction announcement that I posted earlier (reposted below). So, my guess is that purchase price would be slightly below par to bump the real rate in the neighborhood of 0.54%.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/A_20220616_1.pdf
  • Money Market Rates - interesting again?
    I track FZDXX and it's 7 day yield just popped to 1.18% at Fido. Money Market rates are finally bumping up after last week's 75 bp hike.
    With continued Fed hikes, should we expect to see 2% MMKT rates this summer?
    And then could we expect to see close to 3% in 3Q 2022 after the Sept 21-22 Fed meeting....or are such expectations too high?
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Just checked in with Schwab CD's 1 month up 46% 1% now 1.46% !
    1yr 2.9% -- 2yr 3.2%
  • TRP. TOTR. ETF
    Chart for TOTR, BOND, FBND, TOTL using new M* Investor Interactive Charts (1-yr charts start at TOTR inception). Stockcharts doesn't recognize TOTR yet.
    image