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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    It appears Ms Stanek is ~66, as she graduated from Marquette University in 1978 and, according to Baird, has 43 years of investment management. So <<10 years experience prior to the bond bull market, FWIW.
    https://www.marquette.edu/alumni/awards-2010/recipient_Stanek.php
    https://www.bairdassetmanagement.com/bio/mary-ellen-stanek/
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    The S&P500 index was started in 1957. Not claiming it's the case today, but the larger the share of those companies' stocks held by S&P500 index funds, the more likely those stocks would decline together.
    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041015/what-history-sp-500.asp
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    This June 16 quote caught my eye....
    As noted by BofA: “More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined today. It’s the 5th time in the past 7 days. Since 1928, there have been exactly 0 precedents. This is the most overwhelming display of selling in history.”
    It's my general understanding consecutive 90% down days are often soon followed by sustained market rebounds. But, I don't have data to back this up. Any and all comments about the possible significance of this event would be appreciated.
    Quote is from:
    Fed Bluffs And Wall Street Calls
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    How do you manage through a cycle of rising interest rates and higher inflation? There aren’t too many money managers who have that experience …
    The bond bull market began in 1981.
    That’s about 41 years ago.
    Let’s assume the manager had a minimum of 10 years experience as an investment manager / advisor preceding the bond bull market.
    If age 15 when he / she began their career they’d be 66 today (in or near retirement).
    If 25 when he / she began investing they’d be 76 today.
    If 35 when he / she began investing they would be 86 today.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    How do you manage through a cycle of rising interest rates and higher inflation? There aren’t too many money managers who have that experience and have a track record of excellence through many different types of markets. This week’s guest does. She is Mary Ellen Stanek, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors.
    Stanek was recently named Morningstar’s Outstanding Portfolio Manager of 2022 for her “disciplined and risk-aware approach, thoughtfully navigating various market environments,… and generating impressive absolute and risk-adjusted returns” in her 22 years at Baird.


  • M* screwing everything up again
    Update: Pigs Fly! I received a polite, sincere, and intelligent phone call from a Morningstar representative this afternoon, apologizing for the vague instructions for migration of portfolios and watchlists and for sending me an email message addressed to "Hi Dummy1" . I was heartened by the human contact. We had a real conversation. This is in contrast to the boilerplate clueless email messages I received earlier today.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    This may be the final nail in M* coffin for me. Thanks for screwing up a totally functional system and then increasing the price!
    I have paid them money for lots of thing (remember the old tissue paper thin mutual fund reports?) since probably 1990 or earlier. Every year things get worse and worse.
    I just looked at this new investor. It has only one watchlist on my account, one that I started in 2010! None of the others are there.
    Their "portfolios" used to require dividends to be accepted by hand, making it tedious and clumsy. I download all my accounts into Quicken and then have been easily exporting symbols, number of shares and ave cost as a excel type text file to a M* watch list. It took about a minute. When I bought or sold something, I would delete the old watch list and download the new one witht hat day's date. This used to give me far more data on sectors, and style info etc than the link to M* portfolio manager in Quicken does.
    I wonder what will happen to the Quicken M* link now?
    Does anyone know it f you can import a Quicken portfolio data file into the Portfolios at M*?
    I don't care about date purchased etc., just average cost, to give me performance data
    For now I will continue with legacy but at some point I am sure they will kill that too.
    For what it is worth, Quicken does an adequate job of portfolio management, if anyone wants to give it a try. It is easy to download transactions but has limited analysis.
    I think all of the other places where you can " add an external account" ( I haven't tried those) require you to share your password and login ID via Yodelee. I am not comfortable handing out my password to a third party, although I have never heard of any breaches. When I asked my full service stock broker at Morgan Stanley if they (MS) would prevent or make up losses due to frauds at Yodelee he said NO.
  • Janus Henderson Triton and Venture Funds re-opens to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312522175666/d369480d497.htm
    497 1 d369480d497.htm JANUS HENDERSON TRITON FUND & JANUS HENDERSON VENTURE FUND PROSPECTUS & SAI SUPP
    Janus Investment Fund
    Janus Henderson Triton Fund
    Janus Henderson Venture Fund
    Supplement dated June 17, 2022
    to Currently Effective Prospectuses
    and Statement of Additional Information
    On June 16, 2022, the Board of Trustees of Janus Investment Fund, on behalf of Janus Henderson Triton Fund and Janus Henderson Venture Fund (together, the “Funds”), approved reopening the Funds to all new investors, effective on or about July 18, 2022.
    As a result, effective on or about July 18, 2022, all references to the Funds being closed to certain new investors are removed from the Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    I updated a previous post with the Treasury TIPS announcement that came yesterday - repeated below. Brokerages will now allow order entry until early-morning of the auction on next Thursday.
    Last time, I used Schwab and it took money out on the afternoon of the auction day even though the settlement isn't until a week later.
    This time I am testing Fido - it seems that Fido takes money out few days after the auction but still well before the settlement day.
    Note that unlike regular stock purchases, one doesn't have until the settlement date to provide the money.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/A_20220616_1.pdf
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    5 year TIPS auction is coming next week as @yogibb mentioned in earlier post. Here is more info from TIPWatch.
    https://tipswatch.com/2022/06/14/attention-investors-tips-are-now-a-viable-attractive-alternative-to-i-bonds/#comments
    I am planning to purchase some at Fidelity next week as part of my fixed income bucket.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Just to correct / update my earlier post. The IOS app I referenced costs only $30 per year (at Apple’s App store) - not $50 as I earlier stated. It’s called “Active Portfolio.” No ads. No hassle. Somewhat deficient in being up to date with 100% of holdings. So I wouldn’t want to rely on it as my only tracker. That said, it’s an easy to use and nicely designed app. Tonight I added one new one from the app store. It’s called “Portfolio Trader” and costs $1.99 monthly. No ads from what I can see. This one is more complex. Slow learning curve for me, but getting started. Two tracking apps for $50-55 a year ain’t bad.
    I post only to share what might be helpful information for some in this thread. I realize not everyone needs or wants a tracker. I rely heavily on them because I’ve always designed portfolios around a number of sub-components. It’s helpful for me to get a quick read at any time on what % is currently in alternatives, or income oriented or real assets, etc. And also helpful to understand in which direction each sub-component is moving (and likely reasons). I also like to compare my daily volatility against the volatility of a 3-fund tracker I use (to help keep my own volatility within expectations).
    If nothing more, tracking the diverse array of funds is educational for me. But to each his own. If you tell me you can do better by not tracking your holdings and and shutting your eyes for six months or a year I will take your word for it. We’re all different. For those hunting for a new tracker, it’s not easy finding one that’s user friendly. I tested 6 or 7 this evening and discarded them before coming across one I think will meet my needs.
    - Neither of the apps mentioned requires a phone number. Should they need to contact me it’s done indirectly through Apple.
    Footnote: I am thrilled with the “Portfolio Trader” app from Apple’s App Store. Beautiful layout and functionality compared to the M* tracker. Like driving a modern Ferrari compared to an old mini-van. Unfortunately, it takes a few hours to sort it all out. But at $2 monthly, they’re giving it away. And - yes. There is capability to import or export data for those who wish to do so. I need to follow it for a week to make sure the daily quotes are timely and correct. Currently they are spot-on.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    It was a leak that the Fed purposefully wanted, so there may not be internal/external investigations. But a guess I have seen in the media is that it may have come from Minnesota Fed president Neel Kashkari (nonvoting FOMC member now) to the WSJ reporter Nick Timiraos. Media reports are also that somebody from the Fed also alerted big banks on it. The objective was to reverse the accidental mention by Powell at the May FOMC press conference that 75 bps hikes were off the table. After the WSJ report on Monday morning, 75 bps hike was no longer a surprise by Wednesday. Reuters's Howard Schneider's long question also had this - What role the Fed had in changing the market expectations on Monday, and he tried to follow up when Powell didn't address this, but mike was moved from him and his hand shrug was telling. There were other related questions, but none as pointed as Schneider's. Of course, the markets took a huge hit on Monday, briefly rallied on Wednesday and are tanking today - all averages are below Monday's close.
    MN Fed Kashkari https://www.minneapolisfed.org/people/neel-kashkari
    WSJ Timiraos https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos
    FOMC at YouTube, watch 9:20-11:35
    Major Averages https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p64615965769
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    Bears are at 58.3%, three SDs above average but 1% lower than the worse reading for the year on April 28, 2020 when the S&P 500 (4,280) was nearly 18% above the current level. Does not appear we are near the bottom.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    OK, I worked it out. Apparently what I have been calling "portfolios" M* has been calling "watchlists". There is an option to migrate watchlists and that was quick and easy to use. But now M* has sent me a message about new terms. The email began like this: "Hi Dummy1" !! So now I am a dummy? Maybe so for continuing to use M* and pay for it. Have they lost their minds or do they just want to lose all their customers?
  • M* screwing everything up again
    I got a promotional offer for the new M* Investor at $199 for the first year. There is a 7-day free trial period. The offer expires on 9/30/2022.
    Fred
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    The broader market on Thursday, the day after 75 bps rate hike is all red. And now it is in bearish territory with DJIA dripped below 30,000.
    FED should have raised by 1%.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    M* Investor (Replacing Old/Legacy M* Portfolios)
    investor.morningstar.com/
    I haven't explored the new M* Investor fully. But some comments.
    1. I had stopped using the old Watch Lists because I couldn't add Notes there. There is a small headache in making entries in the Portfolios because they requires dates, share numbers and prices, but for "watchlist" purposes, I just entered random dates (start of the month/year), 1 share, $1 price. In fact, when I converted some old Watchlists to Portfolios, it internally almost did that. So, I won't miss the new less convenient access to Watchlists (via new pages).
    2. The Chart feature within M* Investors seems better - it can Compare different things (OEFs, ETFs, CEFs, stocks). This was a sudden new restriction of the Chart feature accessed from M* Homepage (that remains restrictive/limited). There are both Price and Growth-of-10K displays. However, these Charts are not linkable, and Export just creates a screenshot.
    3. One main change I see is that there won't be multiyear subscriptions, but yearly renewals only. I haven't checked the access/feature differences between M* Basic and M* Premium subscriptions.
    I will add more updates here,
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/256/interactive-charts-newer?page=1&scrollTo=669
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22
    For the week ending on 6/15/22, Sentiment was extremely negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (58.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.4%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (22.2%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -38.9% (very low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (+75 bps hike was "leaked" to WSJ on Monday; expect more 50-75 bps hikes); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (16+ weeks; no longer in headlines). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks, bonds, oil, gold were all down, dollar was up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=667