For those who think their FDIC-insured bank accounts/CDs would be safe in the event of a Treasury bond default: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USGSEC
Things would be OK perhaps in the short-term if it's just a missed Treasury payment--a technical default- but not in the long-term for any extended standoff and collapse. The whole system is built on the "risk-free" rate of Treasuries, lives or dies with it. Banks own $4.4 trillion in government debt. And yes, it is a political issue. The extremists' goal of this standoff is to destroy the social safety net, cut Food Stamps, welfare, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and, in the long-term, Social Security and Medicare. And so the fate of T-Bill and Treasury bond holders, the U.S. dollar, and our entire financial system is wrapped up with this debate.
Meanwhile, the idea that the FDIC because it is financed by banks and not the government can save all the banks that would go bust in an extended default is wrong. The FDIC depends on the Deposit Insurance Fund--https://investopedia.com/terms/d/deposit-insurance-fund.asp--to bail out banks. As of the FDIC's last 2021 annual report issued in April of 2022--https://fdic.gov/about/financial-reports/reports/2021annualreport/2021-arfinal.pdf--the insurance fund had $115 billion set aside to bail out banks. That's good for a few banks, not for an entire financial system in disrepair. Even worse, what is the Deposit Insurance Fund invested in? Treasury bonds! See page 133 of the annual report.
If we miss a T-bill/Treasury payment because of our government being held hostage, the world will survive. But going over the edge into a serious government bankruptcy would be end times for the capital markets. Nor am I trying to be alarmist. In fact, this scenario makes me almost positive the situation won't get any further than brinkmanship and everything for wealthy T-Bill/Treasury-bond holders--and every other investor in the financial food chain--will be fine. And even if the extremists kept pushing, the 14th amendment will be invoked: https://newrepublic.com/article/169857/debt-ceiling-law-terminate-constitution A missed payment and the volatility that will result because of it will be a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, some awful concession will be made regarding the safety net for America's poorest most vulnerable citizens--politics in the extreme.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834423000972/fp0081937-1_497.htm
497 1 fp0081937-1_497.htm
Securian AM Balanced Stabilization Fund
Class A Shares –VVMAX
Institutional Class Shares – VVMIX
Securian AM Equity Stabilization Fund
Class A Shares – VMEAX
Institutional Class Shares – VMEIX
Each a series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust”)
Supplement dated January 25, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectuses
and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated January 1, 2023.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for each of the Securian AM Balanced Stabilization Fund and the Securian AM Equity Stabilization Fund (each a “Fund”, together, the “Funds”). Each Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the respective Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately each Fund is closed to all new investment.
Each Fund will be liquidated on or about February 27, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, each Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the respective Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the respective Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and each Fund will be dissolved.
In anticipation of the liquidation of each Fund, Securian Asset Management, Inc., the Funds’ sub-advisor, may manage each Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of each Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
Please contact the Funds at 1-800-207-7108 if you have any questions or need assistance.
Please file this Supplement with your records.

@Crash: Marigolds! If what you planted are anything like the calendula* seeds I put out ~ 15 years ago, they reseed like mad and make a good cover you'll never have to replant.
* A marigold native to North America, only distantly related to some of the available ornamental marigolds. Common names can be a bit misleading ...

The ones I've got are red metamorph. I actually like the acrid aroma. And I'm using pots on the deck, we own no land.
:)

@Crash: Marigolds! If what you planted are anything like the calendula* seeds I put out ~ 15 years ago, they reseed like mad and make a good cover you'll never have to replant.
* A marigold native to North America, only distantly related to some of the available ornamental marigolds. Common names can be a bit misleading ...

"We have some new okra sprouts coming up. Just planted marigold seeds."
@Crash - oh how I envy. Two feet of snow, slush and ice here on top of frozen soil and heading 10 degrees below zero (F) for the next several days. On the plus side I do have plenty of good reds, firewood, and stacks of books available.

https://npr.org/2023/01/24/1151055903/doj-files-second-antitrust-suit-against-google-seeks-to-break-up-its-ad-business

The Justice Department and eight states on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against Google over its digital advertising business, claiming the tech giant illegally monopolizes the market for online ads.
It is the second antitrust suit federal authorities have brought against the company's advertising empire, which has for years been under scrutiny over allegations of self-dealing and choking off competitors.
"For 15 years, Google has pursued a course of anticompetitive conduct that has allowed it to halt the rise of rival technologies, manipulate auction mechanics, to insulate itself from competition, and force advertisers and publishers to use its tools," said Attorney General Merrick Garland at a press conference announcing the lawsuit.

Curious if Lynn Bolin recommended any specific fund picks in his article for 2023.

Ummm … In a roundabout way yes - there are recommendations. Tons of funds are listed, analyzed, compared. They are grouped into many different categories. He does identify several he owns. It’s a very lengthy article, so I’d be hesitant to just pluck a few of his choices out. Really needs to be read in totality. (I can say he thinks highly of mixed allocation funds for conservative retired investors.)
I accessed article just 1 time using my DuckGo browser. But couldn’t get in again. A good approach would be to clear your computer or device’s cache and then attempt to access it. Only issue is you’ll later need to re-enter passwords for sites you frequently visit.

I've been stepping into TAVFX, Third Ave Value fund and MOWNX, Moerus Worldwide funds...they own stocks of companies that deal in real assets...I'm thinking this is going to the wire meaning the debt limit and could get very wonky...US$ would go down bigly...do like the fund mgr comentary of TAVFX.."magical thinking the past 5 to 10 years, refers to SPACS, "private currency" dunno if he means shitcoins, trees growing to the sky US equities and transcending our physical world and reducing our dependcy of old economy activites like mining...I don't beleive any of those funds hold any Chinese company stocks as well which I consider a good thing, I don't care how they have doing lately etc. Also opened small position in SGGDX First Eagle Gold. To go along with strong bank, FDIC balance sheets CDs when my Tbills roll off. Still hold my PMEFX, PVCMX and HSAFX, Hussy which could hold up better than most during a debt limit crisis.
As far as all the politico comments, I'll just say I have an opposite viewpoint of most of what was written in this thread and will refrain from adding my comments as to not offend anyone and keep the focus on investing.
I also hope I am wrong but I can see the war in Ukraine spiraling out of control rapidly,,,my parents were in Europe during the War and the stories make me shiver....Mom saw folks chewing on the soles of their shoes and eating grass for nutrition....this has got to be de escelated. somehow someway, not pour more and more weapons in there.
Good Luck to All,
Baseball Fan

can't get in. but thanks for playing, anyway. :)

Try this link. Should get you in at least 1 time.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4571846-investment-picks-for-retirees-in-2023

Thank you for the extra effort, hank. But no, it would not let me read it. Not past the header and bullet points. I'm glad to read from someone else on this thread the "closing thoughts" Lynn offered. THAT is helpful, indeed. @sven. @hank.

can't get in. but thanks for playing, anyway. :)

Try this link. Should get you in at least 1 time.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4571846-investment-picks-for-retirees-in-2023

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/
you may have to register to read it but always worthwhile.
" Continued economic and financial problems are likely. I believe they could be dire"
SP500 3200 end of 2023. Will probably dip further sometime this year.
He believes the peak in 2021 was one of the classic bubbles in history like 1929 2000 and 2006 and most of the decline could be after the first rate cut.
There is also a link to his recent interview about Climate Change

@LarryB
I looked at the gold funds and think for retirement accounts. pick the one with the lowest ER and decent liquidity.
In taxable accounts Gold is taxed at long term capital gains rates of 28% as a collectible ( ST is income tax rate)
However, if you use a Canadian fund like PHYS, you can fill out a form every year with your taxes and pay usual LT capital gains rate.
Otherwise buy a mutual fund like SGGDX which seems to have done betted than the index of miners like GDX. NEM is also a possibility as it has a nice dividend.
@LB
I agree Political issues always affect investments. For example, massive changes in the tax laws, an obviously political issue, made huge changes in expected investment returns.
We should be able to distinguish between political discussions with people of good faith presenting opposing but reasoned and fact based arguments or informed ( who of us really knows what is in McCarthy's head?) opinions based on their actual data or professional knowledge, and screes and ideology amplified by the internet with a hostile core.
Unfortunately there is much more of the latter than the former. Many once respected voices of facts and reason are now just the scene of shouting matches. While the NYT is not much better (looking at you 1619 project), I remember how thoughtful and insightful the WSJ used to be. The articles are still generally useful, but no where near as detailed and insightful, but the opinion pages distort and cherry pick facts to rile up the faithful.
This then pollutes everything associated with it. I am reading a pretty good book now about PGE and the California wildfires "California Burning" by K Blunt. My cousin whose house almost burned down in one of the fires refuses to read it as it is written by WSJ reporter. Everything is distorted through you own, mightily amplified political viewpoint.
There seems to be very few places for moderates and independents to have a discussion without getting yelled at.

@Lewis B. Agree 100% That’s why the BH controllers allowing 299 responses to the default question is interesting.. The issue is more about politics than anything else and they have specifically let it run. Till they don’t.

Added to FPBFX Fidelity Pacific Basin, most likely a trade as long as it continues to trend. Reasonable country diversification that can benefit from China re-opening, but not a pure China play.
Japan 37.94%
China 22.16%
Taiwan 7.26%
Korea (South) 6.88%
Australia 5.97%
Hong Kong 4.75%
Singapore 4.58%
India 2.93%
Also added FNMIX Fidelity New Markets Income (emerging markets bond fund)

IMO, the US lawmakers, who grew up in the dollar-reserve-currency environment don't appreciate the global significance of a potential US default, technical or not. There are already serious global concerns on dollar-diplomacy/weaponization and this is really a bad time to mess with this debt-ceiling issue. The time for discussions is when federal appropriations are made, not when the bills come due.
Gold (physical GLD, gold-miners GDX) has been outperforming since October lows. https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=GLD&compare=GDX,SPY&id=p72295455994
Global reserve currencies have 100+ or so years of life (in the list below from Bitcoin enthusiasts, you can ignore the last projection), and the US can only hasten the change. https://twitter.com/BTC_for_Freedom/status/1616047232947560448
"World reserve currency periods:
- Portugal (1450–1530)
- Spain (1530–1640)
- Netherlands (1640–1720)
- France (1720–1815)
- Great Britain (1815–1920)
- United States (1921-2030)
- Bitcoin (2030-Forever)"

My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023
{Forewarned - this article is from Seeking Alpha and some may not be able to access it}
Summary
° I expect the Federal Reserve to continue to increase rates at a slower pace until they reach about 5% and hold them there through 2023, creating opportunities for retirees.
° A recession is likely in the second half of 2023 and valuations are still high with respect to inflation and interest rates. Earnings growth is likely to decline.
° This article looks at how retirees may benefit from diversifying in bonds and staying diversified in conservative equity funds.

of course the future is likely to be different with bonds, but schp too has been a weak investment for 2/1/0.5y (compared w stip, agg, fbnd, bsv)

:)
You've just given me some new stuff to research.