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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FOMC Statement, 6/15/22
    The fed fund rate was raised by +75 bps (+0.75%) to 1.50-1.75% range & more 50-75 bps increases are coming; the QT is continuing as previously announced. The interest paid on reserves held at the Fed are now 1.65%; the discount/primary rate is 1.75%. The labor market remains strong & inflation data have surprised to the upside. Fed's goals are positive real rates & taming consumer demand because many other factors are out of Fed's control (global commodity prices, Russia-Ukraine war, Covid-19 issues in China). Headline inflation is what the public & the Congress care about, but the core inflation is more meaningful for the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Changing inflation-expectations via forward guidance is working as intended but the Fed is not locked into its previous guidance (so, it isn't bothered by "misses") & looks at the incoming data (current retail sales & housing data, UM Sentiment, etc) & some of it came during the blackout week this time.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=1&scrollTo=665
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    As a theory, managed futures sound wonderful, but I like many others have been disappointed. I bought AHLPX after extensive research helped me decide it had the best and least volatile track record. I held it for about six months in 2021 when it basically fell 6 % or so. Since then it is up about 16%.
    Like a lot of "black box" funds, it is hard to predict how it will preform when you need it the most.
    I think it is easier to have a defined short position or even inverse ETF for a negative correlation to the markets, if you are unable or unwilling to decrease equity exposure.
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    My experience is that managed futures and similar strategies work until they don't, but they tend to work when nothing else does. IMHO, holding long term is not a great idea unless they're a very small piece of the portfolio.
    Buying right now, after a ~10% runup in the last month for funds like AMFAX, may not be a great idea either, purchase price having very much to do with returns, short and long term.
    AHLPX is, generally speaking, a less volatile fund in the space.
    I'm glad to see KMLM reaching decent volume levels. Don't own it myself, but may at some point.
    YMMV.
  • EPD
    had to establish a basis at time of death
    ISTM that should have been very simple - it's the market value (not book value) of each asset at time of death (or six months later if using an alternate valuation date). In the case of MLPs which are traded like stocks, I imagine the valuation would be the average of the opening and closing market prices on the valuation date. Though I haven't checked to confirm the same algorithm is required for MLPs as for stocks.
    This is the beauty of basis step up (or down) - it wipes the record clean. Depreciation adjustments that would matter if the owner sold the property while alive no longer come into play.
    For example, I was the (co) executor of an estate containing a depreciated rental property. Valuing real estate is more difficult than valuing securities. You can't just look at the last trade. We went to a realtor who did a lot of sales in the development and asked for a written estimate of what the property would sell for. Six months later we had him provide an updated estimate. No complaints from the IRS.
    Something else must have been going on with these MLPs. Perhaps they were jointly owned? Then (except in community property states) the step up in basis would only apply to the fraction owned by the deceased. Or perhaps they are thinly traded (still not very complicated)? Do you know why the lawyers made such a fuss over the MLPs?
    Edit: a key word here is "master". That means it is public, listed. Without that, it would be more difficult to value, just as real estate is more difficult to value.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    I may be “whistling in the graveyard.” But, when I see PRWCX (no matter who the manager) off 15+% YTD, it gives me hope the broader equity indexes are near half-way down to their maximum losses. Check ‘07-09. I think the fund’s around 50% of the way to its losses back than. Could be wrong. Maybe we’re looking at the 1930s again. But I don’t think so. On the other hand, I think inflation is here to stay. Probably OT - Just responding to Sven’s comment comment.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    S&P500 is up 1.3% on Wednesday morning. Will see later what % the rate hike is. Many traders are leaning toward 75 bps.
    Wonder if the rate hike will improve the already bearish investor sentiment?
  • Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time? ---- Maybe Not......
    Is 7% coming soon?!.....
    The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
    The rate was 5.55% one week ago.
    The drastic rate jump this week is the worst since the so-called taper tantrum in July 2013, when investors sent Treasury yields soaring after the Fed said it would slow down its purchases of the bonds.

    6.28%

    Also, a city by city chart showing mortgage payment increases since January 1:
    US mortgage payments are on the rise
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    Managed-futures funds are supposed to latch on to some trend, up or down, to make money. But as far as stocks/SP500 is concerned, PQTIX has been NEGATIVELY correlated. This is seen in the ratio chart of PQTIX:SPY; the bottom panels show PQTIX and SPX. In a ratio chart, down-trend means underperformance, up-trend means outperformance, flat means in-line performance. Timeframe used is 5 yrs but may default to 1 yr later.
    So, PQTIX bet has been on other markets outperforming the SP500 and that has only worked recently. I held it for several years but dumped it (prematurely) before its recent spurt. In general, I have been disappointed with both managed-futures and long-short funds.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PQTIX:SPY&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09370989141
  • HY Bond Spreads
    The ECB is meeting to discuss widening credit spreads, mainly the Italian vs German sovereign bond spreads. Credit spreads in the US have gone up too and here is a look at the HY spreads from FRED,
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=QB0c
    ECB News https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/european-central-bank-last-minute-meeting-to-look-at-market-conditions.html
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    I own some and (more) KMLM in the same space. The latter does not have a long record as an ETF, but its managed futures strategy dates to 1993. It seems to have avoided the string of mediocre years of performance that PQT_X racked up, as Lewis highlighted. ER for KMLM is 0.9%, or half of the PIMCO fund. Nice presentation at kfafunds.com/kmlm in which they explain in detail the make up of their proprietary special sauce, the KFA MLM managed futures strategy. They also detail the long-term performance of their Index. Thanks to @wxman123 for the tip on this ETF.
  • EPD
    @ron. Someone else explained it to me this way:
    I'm in ET, a similar midstream MLP. The K-1 is required, but don't ask me why. Too complicated for me. Anyhow, I'll just let my tax guy deal with it. My tax returns are very simple, otherwise. ...
    .....So, the other fellow responded to my questions, offering this response. I'm paraphrasing from memory: in the case of such a LP (Limited Partnership,) when dividends are paid, it is a return of your own capital. And it is un-taxed. If you ever receive enough dividends to make-up for your own cost, then those dividends would be taxable. But will you ever get there? Since the profit is untaxed as long as you own it, he plans simply never to sell it. Let the heirs worry about the rest..... That's far from a thorough answer, but he told me enough so that I was able to make an informed decision. And you might check out ET, too, along with EPD.
  • Apparently, there are no 1X (inverse) funds that short energy …
    No 1x
    Been using 3x
    Gush ( flow warket)
    Drip ( against market)
  • Apparently, there are no 1X (inverse) funds that short energy …
    Once upon a time there was a fund company that offered 1.25x funds, figuring the relatively low multiplier might hit a happy medium between increased returns on good days and the adverse cumulative effects ("beta decay") of leverage in volatile markets.
    It was called Potomac Funds. Here's their paper on the 1.25 approach.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20050518025112/http://www.potomacfunds.com/data/125_approach.pdf
    The company didn't succeed and in 2006 decided to change direction (Direxion). Instead of offering the least leveraged funds in the industry, it would offer the most leveraged at the time (2.5x).
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/article-192.html?issue=70
    It seems that wasn't enough. So in 2008 it launched a series of 3x ETFs (including inverse 3X).
    https://www.etf.com/sections/features/5063-direxion-exec-offers-three-times-the-leverage.html?nopaging=1
    Direxion even tried selling a 1X bear energy ETF (ERYY), but that lasted only between early 2016 and late 2017. And its clean energy ETFs were never launched.
    In addition to changing from conservative (1.25) to ultra, hyper leverage (3x), Direxion tried yet another path. (No, not ETNs, that would be iPath.) It offers leveraged funds that rebalance monthly rather than daily. This is another approach to providing leverage while reducing the problem of daily beta decay. Monthly rebalancing still doesn't work for long term investors, but might work in the intermediate term.
    From the Journal of Accountancy, Daily vs. monthly rebalanced leveraged funds
    Several academic studies have also pointed out how these [daily rebalanced] leveraged fund’s multiples decay over time [citations omitted]. The message apparently has been received as the implied holding period for most of these funds is now less than a week. The overriding conclusion is that even under ideal conditions, holding daily rebalanced leveraged funds beyond a few months will almost certainly lead to disappointment in terms of maintaining the leverage ratio.
    In answer to this drawback, Direxion changed their daily leveraged mutual funds to monthly leveraged funds in September of 2009. [Their OEFs are rebalanced monthly, their ETFs daily.]
    ...
    When the market is relatively volatile, both daily and monthly leveraged funds will likely underperform just holding the underlying index. Thus, even monthly leveraged funds should not be considered for the typical buy and hold investor. For intermediate-term or active investors, monthly leveraged funds do have added value and are a nice alternative to daily leveraged funds.
    https://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/10676.pdf
    https://www.direxion.com/mutual-funds
  • PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strat Instl PQTIX
    It is doing exceptionally well, but pay attention to the returns for each calendar year from 2015 to 2019: https://morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pqtix/quote This fund does well when managed futures funds do well and they usually need definitive trends in capital markets to do so. They hop on the trend up or down and ride it like a surfer. A small allocation can make sense, but probably not too much.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    With .75, I think the market rallies, at least short-run. With 1%, look for a strong rally. Anything less than .75, the market tanks more.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Not too bad considering its Fidelity and Vanguard peers are down a good bit more:l
    TRAIX (I class of PRWCX) (14.95%)
    FBALX (19.09%)
    FPURX (17.36%)
    VWENX (17.55%)
    and outperforming S&P 500 substantially

    DODBX is down 10.56% YTD (lags farther out). I’ve got $$ in both.
    There’s a lot of ways to slice & dice it. As I recall PRWCX lost 28% in all of 2008, so it’s already down more than 50% of that loss in 5.5 months. Arguably, things were much worse in 2008. There’s some swagger with Giroux. So I like to nit-pick his management a bit. D&C employs more of a team approach. Giroux did predict in the
    Barron’s year-end “round-table” that the 10-year wouldn’t finish the year above 2.5%. Made quite a point of it. Ahh … We’ll see on that one. And griping about Amazon’s management hardly seems becoming of someone with all his supposed talent. Man-up. You went overboard / overweight on one of your worst picks! More humble managers would say as much.
    Yes, DODBX is outperforming ytd, but over 3 and 5 years. TRAIX has considerably outperformed, especially over the last 5 years, per Morningstar.:
    DODBX 3yr. 7.99%. 5 yr. 7.01%
    TRAIX. 3yr. 8.80% 5 yr. 9.66%
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Not too bad considering its Fidelity and Vanguard peers are down a good bit more:
    TRAIX (I class of PRWCX) (14.95%)
    FBALX (19.09%)
    FPURX (17.36%)
    VWENX (17.55%)
    and outperforming S&P 500 substantially
    DODBX is down 10.56% YTD (lags farther out). I’ve got $$ in both.
    There’s a lot of ways to slice & dice it. As I recall PRWCX lost 28% in all of 2008, so it’s already down more than 50% of that loss in 5.5 months. Arguably, things were much worse in 2008. There’s some swagger with Giroux. So I like to nit-pick his management a bit. D&C employs more of a team approach. Giroux did predict in the Barron’s year-end “round-table” that the 10-year wouldn’t finish the year above 2.5%. Made quite a point of it. Ahh … We’ll see on that one. And griping about Amazon’s management hardly seems becoming of someone with all his supposed talent. Man-up. You went overboard / overweight on one of your worst picks! More humble managers would say as much.