Yup. And having seen big moves in the 00s and 10s I'm not panicked. If anything, I only start to get a bit more interested/concerned when the overnight futures tank hard like last night .... but even then, I don't run to sell b/c I hold good stuff, so I'm often looking to buy.
A 600-point move in the Dow back in '08 was unheard of and indicative that the sky is falling ... these days, it's like, no big deal.

This news overnight doesn't help, either.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/crypto-lender-celsius-freezes-withdrawals-fueling-market-rout?srnd=premium

+1, @hank.

HaHaHa :) WABAC. I think of Pat every time I hear the name Paulson. He should have been president!

Just so long as he made sure to keep Officer Judy along with him for protection.

(Pat Paulsen and Officer Judy made recurring appearances on the Smothers Brothers; two comics with a deadpan approach)

“There was a drop of 78.4% from the 5132.52 of March 2000. In October 2002, the NASDAQ was trading at 1108.49.”
Remember it well. People were freaking out. Be careful out there.
Source

It seems folks are talking past the subject line of this thread. @Derf appears to suggest that a big CPI print to be released on Friday got leaked on Thursday approx 1 hour prior to market close. Not looking for controversies but leaks are disturbing (no leaks = rule of law).

"I’ll take 8% annual inflation and 12% average portfolio returns any day over 2% inflation and negative portfolio returns."
That's the way that I see it too.
"One “plus” to inflation is that fixed payments on a 30 year mortgage become less and less onerous over the years as they are repaid with cheaper and cheaper dollars, That’s a big help to young first time home buyers."
Sure worked for us.

Ha!
Joe, Janet and Jerome all agree it’s “way too high”. So, perhaps it is. Some of this, however, is political posturing. And Powell may be in sympathy with bankers who don’t like inflation because loans get repaid in cheaper dollars. Who knows?
I’ll take 8% annual inflation and 12% average portfolio returns any day over 2% inflation and negative portfolio returns. And, as long as wages and benefits (ex-taxes) stay ahead of inflation workers shouldn’t be too unhappy either. One “plus” to inflation is that fixed payments on a 30 year mortgage become less and less onerous over the years as they are repaid with cheaper and cheaper dollars, That’s a big help to young first time home buyers.

Fools wade in …
ISTM that sometimes rights guaranteed by the Constitution conflict with each other. “We the people“ and our legislators and courts need to sort that all out - establish priorities. Before the 2nd Amendment, in both actual placement and in time, is language guaranteeing people the right to life. With 18 year old kids, psychologically disturbed or angry individuals, and every Tom, Dick & Harry running around with military grade weapons capable of firing off 50 or 100 rounds in quick order there can be no guarantee of “life.” So those rights - both guaranteed in the Constitution - are in conflict and need to be resolved by “We the people.” Hell, you wouldn’t hire or trust some of these uneducated idiots to take care of your dog while away on vacation or unclog the toilet in your home. Yet, you allow the fools to go out and buy extremely potent armament. Reason needs to prevail. I taught high school for 29 years. My heart bleeds at the thought of those wonderful innocent children having their brains and guts blown away. These were your future doctors, clergymen, scientists, generals, great artists and thinkers of every type - all blown away in an hour’s time. And - they were somebody’s precious kids and grandchildren.
Here’s the Preamble to the U.S. Constitution: “We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

My only concerns with "bucket" suggestions is that I think they underestimate how long the market can be down. While I do not think American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is helpful most of the time, they did provide simple guidelines for withdrawals. When the SP500 is within 5% of its all time high, take money out of stocks. When it is not use your cash. This avoids selling in a down market
They think 4 to 5 years cash is enough, but if you go back to 1929 you can see years where the market took 7 to 8 years to recover.
I would keep at least 6 or 8 years of minimal expenses in cash or short term bonds
The worst thing that can happen in retirement is to go into it in the middle of a bear market

Paulsen at the Fed?

Here is this week's episode

Hopefully, the date in the subject line does not discourage folks from visiting this thread.

I haven't gone to the withdraw side yet, but I did set myself up very much like you @bee. I only set aside 2 years, but I will up it to 3-4 years when I do finally give up my part-time work and start withdrawals. My withdrawal bucket must be more conservative than yours. It's down about 2% YTD. The largest holding is RPHYX, about 40%. I have been pulling money out of the short-term bond holdings and putting it into short term CDs, 3-12 mo durations.
I like your withdrawal % reduction idea to compensate for loss in the bucket.

We all are pretty familiar with the 4% rule which provides a mechanism to adjust one's SWR or "safe withdrawal rate" based on one portfolio value. In a year like this, any percentage withdrawal feels anything but "safe".
For example, if one started the year with a portfolio value of$1M and took a 4% withdrawal for the up coming year, one would have pulled ($1,000,000* .04) or $40,000. If after that withdrawal one's portfolio fell 20%. That $1M portfolio minus $40,000 (withdrawal) minus a 20% market correction, is now $768,000.
This math frightens retirees. It's human nature to see this 24.2% portfolio drop as a permanent loss. This can trigger some of us to "sell low" and other poor timing strategies.
For me, years before pulling from my retirement portfolio, I tried to determine what my yearly withdrawal needs were going to be and decided to separate those 3-5 year needs into lower volatility assets. In a sense, try to insulated these near term withdrawals from near term volatility. I would give up some upside to protect against the downside. So instead of selling equities into down markets, I positioned 3-5 years of withdrawals in assets that were less exposed to equity assets volatility. For me, these lower volatility assets are CASH, ST Bonds (VFSTX), and conservative allocation funds (such as VWINX).

I position 20% of my retirement portfolio in low volatility assets. Collectively the losses in these assets YTD has been close to (-6.5%). with this in mind, I have reduced my 4% SWR by 7%. So instead of my normal 4% SWR of $20,0000, I limit myself to 7% less or $18,600. I am hoping it is a helpful adjustment that my budget can handle.
Any criticisms, comments or strategies welcome.

Thank you. I saw your earlier posting too. Just want to inform the broader audience on the longer duration TIPS (10 and 30 years) are also available.

Has any country ever targeted a set level of inflation and adhered rigidly to it? I’d be interested in examples. Sounds like a dubious proposition. Many external factors enter into the level of inflation - not the least of which are the prices of imported products. Than there’s immigration levels (supply of laborers), foreign currency exchanges, technological innovation, climate (effect on crops), wars, etc. I’m not aware of the U.S. ever having an official inflation target up until the time the Fed began targeting 2% (5-10 years ago) because they were scared silly of deflation developing (negative inflation / falling prices).
I don’t think Paul Volker ever set an “inflation target” either. What he did was jack up overnight lending rates to around 20%. That in conjunction with Regan’s war on PATCO (the opening salvo in a long running war on labor unions / diminishing pay and benefits for union members) threw the country into the worst economic morass since the Great Depression with unemployment remaining near 10% for two years. (Akin to swatting a fly with a ball bat.)
The Regan Recession
Inflation will vary year-to-year and region to region. CHART In 1990 it was running between 5,5 and 6% in the U.S. In Sweden it was 11%. In Japan about 4%.. And 7.5% in Great Britain.

Not to detract from the intelligent discussion, but the problem of skyrocketing prices reminds me of the Nixon administration’s total failure at price controls. Be careful what you pray for. I certainly don’t pray nostalgically for a return to the 1970’s.

Between interest rates rising, recession, and the loomng regulatory changes/improvements to crypto-land around the world I would be cautious. Stick with the major cryptocoins (and fiat-backed stablecoins), avoid sh-tcoins, algo-backed 'stable'coiins(hah!), and NFTs --- and be aware of counterparty risks if you're playing the yield-generation/staking game .... too many people are only now starting to understand why some places are giving them 10, 15, 20, or 25% yields on their crypto.

+0.14% ytd, in other words, flat. Big losses in January; caught back up to zero after revamping the port primarily to managed futures and cash. Right now 25% alt and allocation, mainly managed futures; 20% hold-to-maturity debt; and 55% cash.