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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    @yogibearbull - Thanks. People here won’t believe me. But I believe we’ll be reading similar stories about the price of crude oil in 1 or 2 year’s time.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    @hank, from my Summary, Part 1 yesterday,
    COMMODITIES. That is the sound of falling LUMBER (recently $580 per 1,000/bd-ft; peak $1,711 in 05/2021) from weakening housing demand, rising mortgage rates and lumber mills running at full capacity. New home inventories are now at 9 months vs only 4.7 months a year ago. There is more downside to $300-400. May short futures or ETF WOOD.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    Sometimes it does. As described in a NYTimes article (excerpted below) about Target cutting prices. Or encapsulated more succinctly in this cartoon:
    image
    Target, like many retailers that faced skyrocketing demand in the early months of the pandemic, stocked up on goods as snarled supply chains delayed shipments. But consumers are now turning away from goods like furniture, appliances and other products for staying home and shifting to spending more on experiences and going out.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/business/target-profit-inflation.html
  • Individual TIPS vs TIPS Funds
    Yes, CPI, or CPI-U. It seems that I can still edit the OP. Thanks.
    BTW, I posted on the upcoming TIPS auction here,
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150182/#Comment_150182
  • Individual TIPS vs TIPS Funds
    Thanks for the Stockcharts plots that are helpful to see the differences between VTIP and TIP.
    One can buy individual TIPS from their brokerages. New issues are available based on the auction schedule. Here is more information from Fidelity.
    You can view a list of available Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) offerings by visiting Fixed income, bonds & CDs. TIPS can't currently be purchased on our mobile app.
    TIPS are issued with 5, 10, and 30-year maturities at a specific frequency in auction. On the announcement date, security terms and important dates are posted on Fidelity.com. To view the auction schedule for treasuries, visit US Treasury Bonds and select “Auction Schedule”.
    To view available TIPS auction offerings, log in and visit Treasury Inflation-Protected (TIPS) auction offerings.
    * think you meant CPI, not CPU, correct?
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    Cut wages by 10% & see if inflation follows. The trickle down effect !? Ha Ha ! It doesn't work that way, but why not ? Greed .
    Enjoy your Sunday, Derf
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    YTD I am down .25%. Portfolio is 35% cash/bonds, 12 individual stocks and 11 MF's. Energy stocks biggest contributor to breaking even at 10% of portfolio.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    The captain obvious explanations are not needed for me. I know them. I have heard them. I view them as more lies told by the regulators/politicians.
    Between Jan 2010 - May 2022, the price level has increased 35%. Since Jan 2000, a 73% increase in the price level.- That is using the CPI, which severely undercounts real changes in cost of living. - The source of that stat is from bls.gov's CPI price calculator.
    A 35% debasement of buying power over 12 years is not "price stability"
    These jokers have failed. The institutions have failed -- They have a "mandate" then they construct policies with the predictable result of avoiding the mandate.
    OK, so what was the point of your smart drivel?
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    The captain obvious explanations are not needed for me. I know them. I have heard them. I view them as more lies told by the regulators/politicians.
    Between Jan 2010 - May 2022, the price level has increased 35%. Since Jan 2000, a 73% increase in the price level.- That is using the CPI, which severely undercounts real changes in cost of living. - The source of that stat is from bls.gov's CPI price calculator.
    A 35% debasement of buying power over 12 years is not "price stability"
    These jokers have failed. The institutions have failed -- They have a "mandate" then they construct policies with the predictable result of avoiding the mandate.
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    And before the Fed, JP Morgan in the Panics of 1893 and 1907.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Mine portfolio -19%
    Did slowly dip in past few wks
    Hope get good prices since everything cheap
    Hoped uptrends bullish soon (maybe in few wks /q4 - hard to say)
    Fyi crypto downed over weekend
    They speculate Sp500 may finish ~>4350s by month end
    Keep trucking
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    So the team in place to manage the economy -- Paulsen at the Fed, Yellen at Treasury --- failed so miserably at managing to 2%, they want to "grade on a curve" --moving the Pass/fail mark to 4%...?
    The team needs to go. They are failures. They've failed in their management of the economy.
    The Fed's mandate is price stability. Constant 2% is not price stability, rather its price erosion.
    Target 0%. -- In fact, target the general price level circa 2010.
  • Someone leaked something ! Market hits the pavement again, really nothing new.
    The stock market’s leaking!
    You’re right @Derf. Nothing new. Cathie’s down about 57% now …..
    image
    Some YTD Numbers:
    Dow -13.61%
    S&P -18.16%
    Russell 2000 -19.82%
    NASDAQ -27.52%
    PRSIX (40/60) -12.06%
    PRWCX -12.53%
    TRBCX - 32.77%
    What’s up?
    Inverse funds
    Energy related
    Broad based commodities
    HSGFX +16.72%
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    June 9 Episode
    In part 2 of our interview with industry pioneer Steve Liberatore, we explore both ESG fixed income investing, as well as the relatively new area of impact investing where bond proceeds are directed to a specific project or goal and the results are measurable.


  • Nice write-up by Charles in the Observer on last month’s Morningstar Investment Conference
    Giruox has been a master in using bond & cash positions to counteract his equity risk. His goal is to provide equity-like return while maintain below market risk over a 5 years period.
    +1. Yes indeed. Gotta remember to buy some more PRWCX if it falls a couple of bucks further.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Week-end here. 10th June, 2022:
    Still dark. Even darker. Like a picture of a baboon in a closet at midnight.
    Down by -14.31%. YTD.
    Worst laggards:
    PRISX
    PRWCX
    BRUFX
    TUHYX
    BHB Bar Harbor Bank
    Not so very awful:
    PRNEX
    TRAMX
    ET Energy Transfer LP
    RGR Sturm Ruger (But for the first time after buying-in, it's underwater, by just a fraction.)
  • PGAEX - Interesting New Alt Fund
    PGAEX up 1.46% today. I bought a tiny amount today just to track it !
  • CPI figure released today
    The Labor Department said Friday that consumer prices in May were 8.6% higher than a year ago — the largest increase since December of 1981. Prices rose 1% between April and May, led by jumps in the price of gasoline, groceries and rent.
    Shoppers who swallowed price increases for much of the pandemic without batting an eye are starting to blink now that gasoline prices have topped $5 a gallon in much of the country and grocery prices continue to climb at a rapid rate.
    https://npr.org/2022/06/10/1103995329/inflation-americans-spending-consumer-behavior-prices
    The Fed relies on the PCE rather than CPI numbers. Here is an article explaining the difference.
    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) are two U.S. inflation metrics that use different methodologies, and therefore produce different estimates. The differences can be grouped into four effects: formula, weight, scope, and 'other.' This research evaluates two effects, weight and scope, and discusses their implications. The weight effect is a result of differences in how consumer expenditure data are sourced. CPI sources data from consumers, while PCE sources from businesses. The scope effect is a result of the different types of expenditures CPI and PCE track. For example, CPI only tracks out-of-pocket consumer medical expenditures, but PCE also tracks expenditures made for consumers, thus including employer contributions. The implications of these differences are considerable. Many contracts and government programs are tied to inflation, from rental agreements to social security.
    https://bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/st170010.pdf
    The broader market is down over 2.8% on Friday morning. Next week we will likely to see a 50 bps rate hike.