Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    Rebalancing to reduce risk makes good sense to in normal market condition and the year is 2022 is not one of them.
    Did considerable reshuffling in late 2021 to get defensive. Shared the details in another post that worked out ok in 2022. As rate hikes are slowing this year, I will build up the bond funds again in the near term. Still cautious on growth stocks especially when earning season is starting.
  • moningstar again. charts are dead tonight.
    Of note, Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) is currently selling for $238.14 on NASDAQ, with a market cap of $10.108 billion, annual revenues of $1.85 billion.
    They're making a ton of money, but I'm not really sure from who. Frankly, I don't trust their ratings, let alone their website.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    @Derf
    Had time haying for 2 summers. Usually 2 hay cuts and 1 for straw after the wheat cut. The friends uncle had an old John Deere, single cylinder (putt, putt, putt) tractor, a small baler and a wooden platformed flat farm trailer for stacking. Hay bales weighed almost as much as I did at age 11 and 12. And we always had a hay hook in hand. And yes, the unloading and stacking into the barn loft....fun stuff with that when the temps in the barn ceiling were way too hot.
    Paid $1 per day and free lunch in the nearby small town. 'Course, some of the best burgers are at the local bars, eh? A burger, Lays potato chips or fries and a glass bottle of really cold Coke. Sometimes there were extra treats for a bigger lunch.
    Straight out of an ad in a magazine of the time.
  • Climate Change and "decarbonization"
    The data on "fixing the dirtiest" is fascinating. I also heard today that the author (a Forbes employee) of a book about the meat industry "Raw Deal " calculates that if "plant based meat" and beyond meat etc reached 15% the same penetration of the meat market than non-milk products have now in the milk market it would be equal to eliminating the carbon produced by 25% of the cars in America!
    Not surprising I guess when you realize that Cattle ranching accounts for about 30% of the land use in America and Domesticated livestock equal 60% of world's biomass
    I am not familiar enough with Fossilfree methodology to know how they arrive at their determinations, where they draw the line, and how the measure plans of any company to improve it's fossil footprint, but I am glad you all reminded me of the site and will do some more digging.
    There are so many moving parts here, and companies available, with rapidly changing prospects I think active management is probably better than index funds, unless you use index funds limited to particular segments like Solar, wind EV vehicles etc.
    I also believe that this is an engineering problem, but almost all the funds seem to lack engineers who can evaluate new technology.
    I lot of fund reports remain vague and not terribly useful.
    @LB thanks for tip on ECAT. It is encouraging that BlackRock and Goldman Sachs and Vanguard are creating funds for this
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    >> back down to 15% or less
    you left out the minus sign
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    For Treasuries (T-Bills/Notes/Bonds, TIPS), limit at each auction is cool $10 million (-:).
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    I bond is limited to $10K per person @0and additional $5K on their tax return.
    CDs and T bills can be purchase in large sums. However, T bills are more liquid and can be sold through secondary market. T bill ladder is recommended so the shorter ones mature every several months. Not the same with CDs since the secondary market is much smaller and one have to watch for the penalty.
    Many money market funds are yielding in 3-4% and they are most liquid.
  • Short Term High Yield vs. CDs vs. Treasuries vs. I-Bonds
    Why are you not buying broker CD/Treasury? Fidelity treasuries pays 4.8% for 6 months (https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding) and you don't pay state tax.
    Can I trade back and forth with CD/Treasury? it's inconvenienced.
    Can I buy several hundreds thousands of I-bonds? I can't.
    This is why I use MM and trade anytime I want.
    Do I want to own ST vehicles after bonds had one of the worse years in decades in 2022? Absolutely not. I said already in Nov 2022 that bond funds have a good chance to make 10+% and many of them, several % more.
    I basically see bond funds as more of a sure thing in 2023 than stocks + much lower volatility.
    Can most of America buy several hundreds thousands of anything??? no...
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    I rebalance quarterly -- generally to control risk.
    I have had luck rebalancing into market downturns (COVID, 2008), but the net effect seems to be modest. Here I was using the safer assets (cash, short term high yield) as dry powder and balancing into major drawdowns. My wife, on the other hand, holds fewer safe assets directly, but holds more AA funds (which presumably are rebalancing into drawdowns as well). She seems to have done about the same as I have over the past several years (actually, I do marginally better on average), but with a bit less volatility.
    Probably the reason for the low returns to my opportunism is because even though getting the timing right on market entry is straightforward ("hold your nose and jump in"), getting out at the right time is not a simple matter once the juicy returns start to accumulate and I get greedy and hold on too long. I.e., you get a nice15-20% return and feel pretty good about yourself ("you bold and daring genius, you!") -- do you try to take it to 25% and 26% and 27% before ... *whoops* ... the market dips and you're back down to 15% or less.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    @Observant1 : Thanks for posting comment about using local library to access the link.
    Have a good day, Derf
    PS @catch22 :
    Did you spend any time in the
    hay mow , stacking hay ?
    3 years was enough for me !
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    @catch22, you caught the spirit of my scribbles.
    Hulbert may have had excellent advice. But it's behind a paywall. So I stumble along in ignorance with a certain amount of mule-headed, and juvenile, insouciance. ;>)
    The way the market has been these past 12 months, I am disinclined to sell any part of the few winners in my IRA. And I'm not sure which of the losers I want more of.
    Over the years I have harvested some tax losses in the taxable account if I am no longer interested in the thesis behind the fund. Other than that, I just let things ride. I'm too lazy to generate taxable events just to push money around to squeeze out one ounce more of return.
    As for those bonds (Heavens. They're tasty. And expeditious.) I might go crazy with a floating rate treasury (TFLO or USFR) for some of the cash in my IRA.
    I'm in the higher for longer camp. Watching the price of celery and iceberg lettuce here in Arizona, I think the Fed is more likely to continue raising rates than it is to bail out Wall Street with rate cuts. So I'm not interested in anything with a duration much longer than the life span of a mayfly.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    Portfolios can be rebalanced based on time intervals or asset threshold ranges.
    Frequent rebalancing may be counter-productive due to short-term market trends (momentum).
    Rebalancing annually or even biennually can be more productive.
    Investors often use a 5% or 10% deviation from their target stock/bond allocation as a trigger.
    The primary benefit of rebalancing is risk reduction but it may lead to higher returns when executed
    on an intra-asset level (e.g., US stock/foreign stock, large growth stock/small value stock).
    I was unable to access this article via the link because of a paywall.
    It was accessed via ProQuest which is made available through my local library system.
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    Thanks Mark. Great article. I don’t doubt Hulbert’s overall premise. But you know what they say about ”In the long run …”.
    Gosh - depends on what all you’re invested in as well as age, risk profile, etc, Curiously, a very speculative stock (one of Cathie Wood’s holdings) I sunk a tiny amount in a week ago has bounced 10 15% in a week - up over 5% Tuesday alone. Should I sell all or part? LOL. Last year I might have sold, as I felt locking-in whatever small gain I could in every corner of the markets a necessary “survival” strategy. With a lot of the “free-fall” (hopefully) behind us, I’m not feeling nearly as eager to capture small gains now, Will let this one run a lot longer. But, then again, were it a larger portion of the portfolio I would dump it now - as a quick 10 15% gain is a 10 15% gain any way you cut it. (Again - age, risk tolerance, etc. affect this decision).
    (Edited post for accuracy)
    Sarah Ketterer, a frequent guest on Bloomberg WSW, recently suggested a tactic she calls ”tactical rebalancing”. By that she means capturing short-term (a few months) or intermediate-term gains in some parts of your portfolio. Probably amping-up and throttling-back certain holdings rather than all-in or all-out. I guess it’s the uncertain and highly volatile nature of today’s markets that led her to that conclusion. ie: “Trying to make the best of a bad situation.”
    But lots of good input from the contributors here, Great thoughtful article. And was easy to access,
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    WSJ Story: ”Liquor Brands Bet Thrifty Drinkers Will Keep Making At-Home Cocktails”
    ”Many Americans took to mixing cocktails at home during the pandemic, boosting liquor sales. Now, with inflation squeezing disposable incomes, big distillers are betting on another round of home drinking as consumers economize. Historically, around 80% of all U.S. alcoholic drinks sales were for home drinking, according to IWSR, a drinks market-research firm. That level rose to 90% during the pandemic, and sales at bars aren’t likely to return to pre-Covid levels for another four to five years, IWSR says. To capitalize, spirits brands are doubling down on efforts they started during the pandemic to meet drinkers where they are, launching new products and marketing campaigns catering to at-home drinking and putting greater emphasis on their e-commerce channels.”
    (From “Business and Finance” - WSJ - 1/9/2023)
    To each his own. But I’ll never understand ruining perfectly good whisky by dumping other stuff into it.
  • Southwest Airlines Meltdown Cancels 60% of Flights
    Story (Originally published in the WSJ) -
    The overseer of one of the largest public pension funds in the US is demanding an explanation from crisis-hit Southwest Airlines — New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli wants to know how the carrier plans to prevent another operational meltdown that caused the recent holiday travel chaos. "Clearly this crisis has resulted in profound customer dissatisfaction and is expected to generate significant costs to the company," DiNapoli told Southwest CEO Bob Jordan in a January 6 letter seen by Insider. The Wall Street Journal first reported the news on Monday.
    In the letter, DiNapoli also asked the carrier how it plans to "correct these failures - not just in the immediate term, but for the coming years."The New York state pension fund is one of the top-100 largest investors in Southwest. As of September 30, it held $17.6 million worth of Southwest stock, or about 0.1% of outstanding shares, according to Refinitiv data. The comptroller's office oversees the fund.

    Source of Above Excerpt & Story
    Major Holders of LUV - including mutual funds
    LUV Market Cap $21.5 Billion - Interesting that LUV Is held in some “Mid Cap” mutual funds. Generally, at over $10 Billion market cap, it would be considered a large cap stock.
  • Allen D. Steinkopf of Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund passed away
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418923000178/mairspowerpmsupplement11023.htm
    497 1 mairspowerpmsupplement11023.htm MAIRS & POWER 497E
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-62298; 811-10401
    Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund (the “Fund”)
    A series of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated January 10, 2023 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional information (“SAI”)
    dated April 20, 2022, as previously supplemented
    The Fund regrets to inform its shareholders that Allen D. Steinkopf has passed away at the age of 61, and therefore, no longer serves on the team of portfolio managers for the Fund.
    Andrew R. Adams, Christopher D. Strom, and Michael C. Marzolf will continue to be co-portfolio managers to the Fund.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus and SAI for future reference.
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    how whiskies are ‘made’, from the getgo, all of them
    and then more water
    This one already cut

    Good to know! Most interesting. Thanks. Do enjoy many of the 40% ones - both blended and single malt. Quite often buy couple different Tomatin single malts at 43%.
    From their website:
    "The Tomatin 12-Year-Old is classically smooth, having been matured in traditional Scotch Whisky, ex-Bourbon and ex-Spanish Sherry casks. Aromas of wild heather, pine and cedar soon sweeten to reveal notes of crème caramel with apples, pears and mango before a full-bodied and buttery finish, the 12-year-old is a distinguished sherry cask whisky with a little something different."