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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    And before the Fed, JP Morgan in the Panics of 1893 and 1907.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Mine portfolio -19%
    Did slowly dip in past few wks
    Hope get good prices since everything cheap
    Hoped uptrends bullish soon (maybe in few wks /q4 - hard to say)
    Fyi crypto downed over weekend
    They speculate Sp500 may finish ~>4350s by month end
    Keep trucking
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    So the team in place to manage the economy -- Paulsen at the Fed, Yellen at Treasury --- failed so miserably at managing to 2%, they want to "grade on a curve" --moving the Pass/fail mark to 4%...?
    The team needs to go. They are failures. They've failed in their management of the economy.
    The Fed's mandate is price stability. Constant 2% is not price stability, rather its price erosion.
    Target 0%. -- In fact, target the general price level circa 2010.
  • Someone leaked something ! Market hits the pavement again, really nothing new.
    The stock market’s leaking!
    You’re right @Derf. Nothing new. Cathie’s down about 57% now …..
    image
    Some YTD Numbers:
    Dow -13.61%
    S&P -18.16%
    Russell 2000 -19.82%
    NASDAQ -27.52%
    PRSIX (40/60) -12.06%
    PRWCX -12.53%
    TRBCX - 32.77%
    What’s up?
    Inverse funds
    Energy related
    Broad based commodities
    HSGFX +16.72%
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    June 9 Episode
    In part 2 of our interview with industry pioneer Steve Liberatore, we explore both ESG fixed income investing, as well as the relatively new area of impact investing where bond proceeds are directed to a specific project or goal and the results are measurable.


  • Nice write-up by Charles in the Observer on last month’s Morningstar Investment Conference
    Giruox has been a master in using bond & cash positions to counteract his equity risk. His goal is to provide equity-like return while maintain below market risk over a 5 years period.
    +1. Yes indeed. Gotta remember to buy some more PRWCX if it falls a couple of bucks further.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Week-end here. 10th June, 2022:
    Still dark. Even darker. Like a picture of a baboon in a closet at midnight.
    Down by -14.31%. YTD.
    Worst laggards:
    PRISX
    PRWCX
    BRUFX
    TUHYX
    BHB Bar Harbor Bank
    Not so very awful:
    PRNEX
    TRAMX
    ET Energy Transfer LP
    RGR Sturm Ruger (But for the first time after buying-in, it's underwater, by just a fraction.)
  • PGAEX - Interesting New Alt Fund
    PGAEX up 1.46% today. I bought a tiny amount today just to track it !
  • CPI figure released today
    The Labor Department said Friday that consumer prices in May were 8.6% higher than a year ago — the largest increase since December of 1981. Prices rose 1% between April and May, led by jumps in the price of gasoline, groceries and rent.
    Shoppers who swallowed price increases for much of the pandemic without batting an eye are starting to blink now that gasoline prices have topped $5 a gallon in much of the country and grocery prices continue to climb at a rapid rate.
    https://npr.org/2022/06/10/1103995329/inflation-americans-spending-consumer-behavior-prices
    The Fed relies on the PCE rather than CPI numbers. Here is an article explaining the difference.
    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) are two U.S. inflation metrics that use different methodologies, and therefore produce different estimates. The differences can be grouped into four effects: formula, weight, scope, and 'other.' This research evaluates two effects, weight and scope, and discusses their implications. The weight effect is a result of differences in how consumer expenditure data are sourced. CPI sources data from consumers, while PCE sources from businesses. The scope effect is a result of the different types of expenditures CPI and PCE track. For example, CPI only tracks out-of-pocket consumer medical expenditures, but PCE also tracks expenditures made for consumers, thus including employer contributions. The implications of these differences are considerable. Many contracts and government programs are tied to inflation, from rental agreements to social security.
    https://bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2017/pdf/st170010.pdf
    The broader market is down over 2.8% on Friday morning. Next week we will likely to see a 50 bps rate hike.
  • Krane UBS China A Share Fund to liquidate
    Krane has several China and Asia related funds (OEFs, ETFs). KUAIX was launched on 6/15/21, so barely a yr old and has AUM of only $1.4 million. It seems to be the only mutual fund in Krane lineup that is mostly ETFs. I also see several Krane ETFs under $50 million AUM threshold used for ETF continuation. Krane strategy seems to be to throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks.
    https://kraneshares.com/explore/
  • PGAEX - Interesting New Alt Fund
    There isn't much AUM at launch and PGIM hasn't seeded it with its own capital, so the ERs look huge but are capped. I have seen high but capped ERs at launches but not this high.
    Alternative ways to launch funds are 1) use seed capital from the firm that is withdrawn a few years later, 2) lineup some institutional buyers/sponsors ahead, or launch a fund on institutional request(s) but open it to others, 3) use the weird subscription process of several weeks that Vanguard uses where the money collected just sits in m-mkt funds until deployed (I don't understand who these foolish investors are who fall for this).
    PGAEX Prospectus from PGIM Site https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/PNET/summary.asp?clientid=pi&fundid=74440K512&doctype=pros
  • PGAEX - Interesting New Alt Fund
    Schwab's page for PGAEX lists its gross expense ratio as 175.28% while the net ER is 1.4%. I can't recall ever seeing an ER of any stripe as high as that.
  • Krane UBS China A Share Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1547576/000182912622013161/kraneshares_497.htm
    497 1 kraneshares_497.htm 497
    KRANE SHARES TRUST
    Krane-UBS China A Share Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated June 8, 2022 to the currently effective Statutory Prospectus and Statement of
    Additional Information, as each may be supplemented, for the Fund
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the currently effective Statutory Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information for the Fund and should be read in conjunction with the Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated August 1, 2021.
    The Board of Trustees of KraneShares Trust (the “Trust”) has approved the liquidation of Krane-UBS China A Share Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust. Accordingly, the Fund will cease its investment operations, liquidate its assets and make a liquidating distribution, if applicable, to shareholders of record.
    The date of liquidation for the Fund currently is anticipated to be on or about June 13, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shareholders of the Fund may continue to redeem their Fund shares through the Liquidation Date. As of the close of business on June 8, 2022, the Fund will not accept orders to purchase Fund shares from new investors or existing shareholders (including purchases through dividend reinvestments). In connection with the liquidation, the Fund will depart from its stated goals, strategies and techniques as the Fund begins to convert all portfolio securities to cash or cash equivalents in preparation for the final distribution to shareholders.
    Shareholders who elect to redeem their Fund shares prior to the completion of the liquidation will be redeemed in the ordinary course at the Fund’s net asset value per share. Each shareholder who remains in the Fund will receive a liquidating cash distribution, to be mailed to their address of record, equal to the aggregate net asset value of the Fund shares that such shareholder holds at the time of the liquidation.
    The liquidation of the Fund will result in one or more taxable events for shareholders that are subject to federal income tax. In connection with the liquidation, the Fund may declare taxable distributions of its previously undistributed net investment income and net capital gain, if any, in advance of its normal annual distribution schedule. All liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders will generally be treated as received by them in exchange for their Fund shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss, again depending on their respective tax basis in their shares.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • PGAEX - Interesting New Alt Fund
    VIX is hardly low. VIX of 19+ implies daily volatility of +/- 1%+ (lot) and we are seeing high daily volatility. But SKEW is low indeed. So, we have high fear gauge but investors are not rushing to buy puts to hedge. VIX during crisis is much higher. Long-term average may be in high-teens.
    VIX & SKEW (1 yr; change to other times) https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15880966674
    Long-term VIX https://www.macrotrends.net/2603/vix-volatility-index-historical-chart
  • PGAEX - Interesting New Alt Fund
    Thanks for the additional remarks @LewisBraham. Was just waiting for a chance to share your recent piece. Agree there are substantial differences.
    For a long while James Stack has been recommending around 10% in a low cost inverse bear fund and he’s been spot-on. I’ve chosen to ignore his advice and have tried hedging with TAIL. Hasn’t worked nearly as well as the bear fund would have. My guess is that the relatively low VIX readings have been part of the problem.