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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    Has any country ever targeted a set level of inflation and adhered rigidly to it? I’d be interested in examples. Sounds like a dubious proposition. Many external factors enter into the level of inflation - not the least of which are the prices of imported products. Than there’s immigration levels (supply of laborers), foreign currency exchanges, technological innovation, climate (effect on crops), wars, etc. I’m not aware of the U.S. ever having an official inflation target up until the time the Fed began targeting 2% (5-10 years ago) because they were scared silly of deflation developing (negative inflation / falling prices).
    I don’t think Paul Volker ever set an “inflation target” either. What he did was jack up overnight lending rates to around 20%. That in conjunction with Regan’s war on PATCO (the opening salvo in a long running war on labor unions / diminishing pay and benefits for union members) threw the country into the worst economic morass since the Great Depression with unemployment remaining near 10% for two years. (Akin to swatting a fly with a ball bat.)
    The Regan Recession
    Inflation will vary year-to-year and region to region. CHART In 1990 it was running between 5,5 and 6% in the U.S. In Sweden it was 11%. In Japan about 4%.. And 7.5% in Great Britain.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    Not to detract from the intelligent discussion, but the problem of skyrocketing prices reminds me of the Nixon administration’s total failure at price controls. Be careful what you pray for. I certainly don’t pray nostalgically for a return to the 1970’s.
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    Between interest rates rising, recession, and the loomng regulatory changes/improvements to crypto-land around the world I would be cautious. Stick with the major cryptocoins (and fiat-backed stablecoins), avoid sh-tcoins, algo-backed 'stable'coiins(hah!), and NFTs --- and be aware of counterparty risks if you're playing the yield-generation/staking game .... too many people are only now starting to understand why some places are giving them 10, 15, 20, or 25% yields on their crypto.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    +0.14% ytd, in other words, flat. Big losses in January; caught back up to zero after revamping the port primarily to managed futures and cash. Right now 25% alt and allocation, mainly managed futures; 20% hold-to-maturity debt; and 55% cash.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    @yogibearbull - Thanks. People here won’t believe me. But I believe we’ll be reading similar stories about the price of crude oil in 1 or 2 year’s time.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    @hank, from my Summary, Part 1 yesterday,
    COMMODITIES. That is the sound of falling LUMBER (recently $580 per 1,000/bd-ft; peak $1,711 in 05/2021) from weakening housing demand, rising mortgage rates and lumber mills running at full capacity. New home inventories are now at 9 months vs only 4.7 months a year ago. There is more downside to $300-400. May short futures or ETF WOOD.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    Sometimes it does. As described in a NYTimes article (excerpted below) about Target cutting prices. Or encapsulated more succinctly in this cartoon:
    image
    Target, like many retailers that faced skyrocketing demand in the early months of the pandemic, stocked up on goods as snarled supply chains delayed shipments. But consumers are now turning away from goods like furniture, appliances and other products for staying home and shifting to spending more on experiences and going out.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/business/target-profit-inflation.html
  • Individual TIPS vs TIPS Funds
    Yes, CPI, or CPI-U. It seems that I can still edit the OP. Thanks.
    BTW, I posted on the upcoming TIPS auction here,
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150182/#Comment_150182
  • Individual TIPS vs TIPS Funds
    Thanks for the Stockcharts plots that are helpful to see the differences between VTIP and TIP.
    One can buy individual TIPS from their brokerages. New issues are available based on the auction schedule. Here is more information from Fidelity.
    You can view a list of available Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) offerings by visiting Fixed income, bonds & CDs. TIPS can't currently be purchased on our mobile app.
    TIPS are issued with 5, 10, and 30-year maturities at a specific frequency in auction. On the announcement date, security terms and important dates are posted on Fidelity.com. To view the auction schedule for treasuries, visit US Treasury Bonds and select “Auction Schedule”.
    To view available TIPS auction offerings, log in and visit Treasury Inflation-Protected (TIPS) auction offerings.
    * think you meant CPI, not CPU, correct?
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    Cut wages by 10% & see if inflation follows. The trickle down effect !? Ha Ha ! It doesn't work that way, but why not ? Greed .
    Enjoy your Sunday, Derf
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    YTD I am down .25%. Portfolio is 35% cash/bonds, 12 individual stocks and 11 MF's. Energy stocks biggest contributor to breaking even at 10% of portfolio.
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    The captain obvious explanations are not needed for me. I know them. I have heard them. I view them as more lies told by the regulators/politicians.
    Between Jan 2010 - May 2022, the price level has increased 35%. Since Jan 2000, a 73% increase in the price level.- That is using the CPI, which severely undercounts real changes in cost of living. - The source of that stat is from bls.gov's CPI price calculator.
    A 35% debasement of buying power over 12 years is not "price stability"
    These jokers have failed. The institutions have failed -- They have a "mandate" then they construct policies with the predictable result of avoiding the mandate.
    OK, so what was the point of your smart drivel?
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    The captain obvious explanations are not needed for me. I know them. I have heard them. I view them as more lies told by the regulators/politicians.
    Between Jan 2010 - May 2022, the price level has increased 35%. Since Jan 2000, a 73% increase in the price level.- That is using the CPI, which severely undercounts real changes in cost of living. - The source of that stat is from bls.gov's CPI price calculator.
    A 35% debasement of buying power over 12 years is not "price stability"
    These jokers have failed. The institutions have failed -- They have a "mandate" then they construct policies with the predictable result of avoiding the mandate.
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    And before the Fed, JP Morgan in the Panics of 1893 and 1907.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Mine portfolio -19%
    Did slowly dip in past few wks
    Hope get good prices since everything cheap
    Hoped uptrends bullish soon (maybe in few wks /q4 - hard to say)
    Fyi crypto downed over weekend
    They speculate Sp500 may finish ~>4350s by month end
    Keep trucking
  • Move the Inflation Goal Post to +4.7% Avg - Yellen
    So the team in place to manage the economy -- Paulsen at the Fed, Yellen at Treasury --- failed so miserably at managing to 2%, they want to "grade on a curve" --moving the Pass/fail mark to 4%...?
    The team needs to go. They are failures. They've failed in their management of the economy.
    The Fed's mandate is price stability. Constant 2% is not price stability, rather its price erosion.
    Target 0%. -- In fact, target the general price level circa 2010.
  • Someone leaked something ! Market hits the pavement again, really nothing new.
    The stock market’s leaking!
    You’re right @Derf. Nothing new. Cathie’s down about 57% now …..
    image
    Some YTD Numbers:
    Dow -13.61%
    S&P -18.16%
    Russell 2000 -19.82%
    NASDAQ -27.52%
    PRSIX (40/60) -12.06%
    PRWCX -12.53%
    TRBCX - 32.77%
    What’s up?
    Inverse funds
    Energy related
    Broad based commodities
    HSGFX +16.72%