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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Money-Losing Retail Crowd Keeps Buying Stocks as Market Teeters
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-losing-retail-crowd-keeps-093000952.html
    (Bloomberg) -- In a stock market battered by trade turmoil and growing fears of an economic slowdown, retail investors are doubling down, undeterred as their losses mount.
    Individual traders pumped more than $12 billion into US equities in the week ending March 19, retail-trading data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. showed. The pace of buying was significantly higher than the group’s 12-month average, according to Emma Wu, a global equity derivatives strategist at the bank.
    Market watchers keep a close eye on retail traders as they are often the last to cut their exposure to stocks, so the latest bout of aggressive buying from mom-and-pop investors may suggest that equities haven’t found the bottom yet.
    The recent behavior of individual investors is characteristic of a “down” year in the stock market, Wu said. It was also seen in 2022, she noted. That’s when the equity benchmark sank 19%, the only down year of the past six. “This is a hallmark of their ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality,” Wu said.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added to NRDCX and invested the smallest amount in an individual corporate bond
    - cusip # 37046AFR1 General Motors Financial Corp
    - 4.85% yield (BBB)
    - 2-yr
    - first call 3/26
    I have been investing in treasuries and agency bonds. This was a very small investment in an individual corporate.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund
    YTD:
    PRWCX .84
    TUHYX .96
    PRCPX 1.26
    PRCFX .97
    FALN 1.56 higher quality junk.
    It's fun for me to keep tabs, daily. I own them all except FALN. I used to own FALN, got out with a tiny profit. If I want such volatility, I can depend on my single stocks for that.
    Longer term numbers mean more. But the frame here in this thread is more recent.
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    I can’t help but ask, “what if?” What could trump/musk do if the government DID shutdown that they couldn’t while it’s open? Better or worse than what the CR has wrought?
    Not for nothing, but maybe Schumer got it right in a no-win situation.
    What he says
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    I quickly scanned the list of 2025 Lipper Fund Awards.
    The "best" funds (10 years) in the International Large-Cap Core, International Large-Cap Growth,
    and International Large-Cap Value stood out as being very good funds I was somewhat familiar with.
    They are MFS International Equity Fund, WCM Focused International Growth Fund,
    and Artisan International Value Fund respectively.
    I'll need to examine this list further.
  • FS Chiron Capital Allocation Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1593547/000139834425005782/fp0092737-2_497.htm
    497 1 fp0092737-2_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND III
    (the “Trust”)
    FS Chiron Capital Allocation Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated March 20, 2025 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (the “Summary
    Prospectus”), Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
    each dated March 1, 2025
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of FS Investments, the parent company of Chiron Investment Management, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about April 21, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchasing, Selling and Exchanging Fund Shares – How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    Schumer said the courts would be closed if govt shutdown so there would be no pushback against Musk/Trump. That's why he says he reluctantly approved it.
    LOL, the rest of his party didn’t get the memo. Maybe if he just ‘splained to them they won’t primary him.
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    "The highest Lipper Leader for Consistent Return (Effective Return) value within each eligible classification determines the fund classification winner over three, five, or 10 years."
    Methodology PDF
  • Lipper Names CrossingBridge "Best Fixed Income Small Fund Family Group"
    An interesting list with 3 5 10 year categories.
    I assume they just used raw performance. Some of their picks are a bit odd
    Kinetics Global is 3 and 5 year winner for Global Small/mid
    45% Bitcoin and Texas Pacific Land !
  • Vanguard International Explorer
    List of Vanguard funds with three or more investment advisors:
    VMMSX - 3
    VEVFX - 3
    VHGEX - 3
    VGIAX - 3
    VTRIX - 3
    VASVX - 3
    VWUAX - 3
    VWNAX - 4
    VEXRX - 5
    https://institutional.vanguard.com/tools/investment/active-portfolio-managers.html
  • Vanguard International Explorer
    It's been an underwhelming fund since I started observing it from 2005. I am not sure if multi-subadvisor approach leads to any significant outperformance over benchmark. There could be exceptions, but in general that is a questionable approach for active funds.
    I was in OAKEX for a while, and then moved last year to Artisan International Explorer (ARDBX) fund. Generally, Artisan did a good job with their new funds, especially when are new and small. I am a very happy investor of ARTKX since 2008, and then I also bought ARTYX within a few months of inception (believing in manager with track record with a new fund). More recently, I also invested in their EM debt fund along with ARDBX.
  • Apple Shakes Up AI Executive Ranks in Bid to Turn Around Siri
    Press Summary of longer article
    Excerpted directly from above referenced Bloomberg article (3/20/25):
    “Apple Inc. is undergoing a rare shake-up of its executive ranks, aiming to get its artificial intelligence efforts back on track after months of delays and stumbles, according to people familiar with the situation. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has lost confidence in the ability of Al head John Giannandrea to execute on product development, so he's moving over another top executive to help: Vision Pro creator Mike Rockwell. In a new role, Rockwell will be in charge of the Siri virtual assistant, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the moves haven't been announced.”
  • FOMC Statement, 3/19/25
    From The Barron's Daily
    :
    The Fed’s Outlook Should Have Spooked Markets. Why It Did the Opposite and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell showed his strength as a market whisperer on Wednesday. Even though interest rates stayed the same, stocks rose by the most on a Fed decision day since last July.
    Most important, perhaps, was that Powell managed to avoid the ire of President Donald Trump. Sure, Trump posted that the Fed should be cutting after the decision. But it was a relatively mild rebuke that doesn’t suggest the central bank and the administration are on a collision course.
    The market’s embrace of Powell’s message is a bit of a puzzle. The projections still show just two quarter-point rate cuts this year, the same as in December. In fact, a closer examination shows the bias among rate setters has shifted toward fewer cuts—even though the median outlook is the same, fewer people see more than two cuts. What’s more, Powell was particularly eager to emphasize the uncertainty in the outlook.
    It gets worse. The Fed also raised its inflation forecasts and lowered projections for growth. That’s starting to sound a bit like stagflation, or inflation without economic growth, which isn’t good for stocks.
    But the market seemed to take this in its stride because Powell instilled confidence in other ways. First, the Fed eased plans to sell bonds back into the market, which is a subtle form of lowering borrowing costs. He also said that if tariffs were to cause an uptick in inflation, the Fed would be able to look through it as long as it’s “transitory.”
    That might be an unfortunate word choice. It was used to describe what was happening after the Covid-19 pandemic, which of course didn’t seem like short-lived inflation at all. But it’s true that the Fed could actually make things worse if it responds to temporary price gains that will blow over by themselves.
    Investors are right to be encouraged by Powell’s words. There is a lot to worry about these days—tariffs, wars, and rapid changes to government policies. At least Powell brings calm and flexibility in times of heightened market pain.
  • FOMC Statement, 3/19/25
    Excerpt from the WSJ -
    (The quote from Powell is from the press conference following statement release and sounds a bit more concerning / critical of the tariffs (“an exogenous source”) than what’s reflected in the official FOMC statement.)
    The Federal Reserve's first set of projections since Donald Trump's inauguration underscored -in the central bank's understated and technocratic fashion-just how much the president's plans to press ahead with widespread tariffs have turned the economic outlook on its head. Months ago, policymakers presumed they would spend 2025 gradually cutting rates to keep inflation heading down without a big rise in joblessness to achieve the so-called soft landing. The latest projections point to the prospect that tariffs covering a swath of goods and materials will send up prices while sapping investment, sentiment and growth, at least in the short run. ‘We now have inflation coming in from an exogenous source, but the underlying inflationary picture before that was basically 2/% inflation, 2% growth and 4% unemployment’, said Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
    Excerpted from The Wall Street Journal - Reported By Nick Timiraos (10:40 PM 3/19)
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    I can’t help but ask, “what if?” What could trump/musk do if the government DID shutdown that they couldn’t while it’s open? Better or worse than what the CR has wrought?
    Not for nothing, but maybe Schumer got it right in a no-win situation.
    It's like a volleyball game. The CR was the "set up" for the slam, the Big Beautiful Bill. I have yet to hear Schumer explain why he changed his mind. But as the leader of the party he must do what he considers right (or correct).
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25
    @sven, it's a contrarian indicator. So, very negative sentiment would mean not sell, may be buy. But is this correction over already? I will wait for better opportunities.
    @hank, the Survey asks for the outlook for next 6 mo.
    I also include the data for %Above 50-dMA and that indicates the situation now.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25
    Thanks Yogi. Interesting. What I can’t tell from the numbers is how far out the time horizon is in these surveys - assuming there is one?
    Conceivably, one might be bullish near term (1-3 months out), but bearish longer term (3, 5, 10 years or more). Or conversely, bearish near term and bullish longer term. Let us hope 25 year olds aren’t selling their long term retirement holdings (or ceasing to invest) based on which way the wind is blowing at any given moment.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/19/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (58.1%, very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (20.3%, very low); bullish became the middle sentiment (21.6%, very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -36.5% (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, budget, debt, inflation, Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (160+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+ weeks; cease fire). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 41.13% (negative). Fed held rates but reduced Treasury QT. Gold-miners lag as gold made a new high 3,000+. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1914/thread
  • Canada Prepares to Join E.U. Military Industry Buildup
    I've lived in and traveled to roughly 75 countries. In 2002 I was working in Bangkok and had to visit a customer in Phuket (a resort area in the south of Thailand). Before leaving Bangkok I received an email from the Canadian embassy alerting me of people in the airport wanting to prick Americans with AIDS filled needles. Only Americans. I made it through security and had no problems.
    After meeting my customer in Phuket I went through the airport security in Phuket and sat to read a magazine near my departure gate. I noticed an Asian woman approaching each Causasian man. When she came to me she asked, "Excuse me sir, are you American?". I said no and showed her my Canadian flag patch. She smiled and walked away. No other foreigners looked like Americans, so we all lived.
    I've never had anyone come up to me and specifically ask me if I'm American, only this one time. It's common for people to ask me where I'm from, and most of these people are simply being curious and kind. But not this once!