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The consensus is that U.S. equities will deliver strong performance as the economy recovers, and that higher inflation will drive rising interest rates. All of that is wrong, according to David Rosenberg.
The Toronto-based Rosenberg started his own economic consulting firm in January 2020, Rosenberg Research & Associates, after working a decade as chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates. He was the opening speaker at this year’s Strategic Investment Conference, hosted by John Mauldin.
Before you place too much weight on Rosenberg’s analysis, recall that he delivered the opening keynote at this conference last year, when he proclaimed that U.S. equity market bulls were in “fantasyland.” He was wrong. The return for the S&P 500 for the last year was 56.25%.
The “fiscal juice” from stimulus checks and the re-opening of the economy are outstripping supply, creating temporary inflation. Supply will catch up when demand subsides as the effect from the stimulus wanes, according to Rosenberg. That will happen before the end of the year.
When the effect of stimulus checks expired last year, GDP declined by 2.5%. We will see a repeat of that this year, according to Rosenberg.

Don’t forget that selling is free at Fidelity whereas it costs $20 to sell. There are other subtle differences. Institutional shares of Pimco funds require $25K while $1M at other brokerages.But automatic investing is available at Fidelity, $5/transaction, and you can stop after one transaction. One could purchase OSTIX at Vanguard ($20) or Merrill Edge ($19.95), transfer it in kind to Fidelity (no transfer fee), and continue investing there.
If you're not expecting to hold for an extended period of time, and you're investing relatively small amounts, that could make sense. Though you'll have to hold for 60 days at Vanguard to avoid a $50 redemption fee.I started a position in ATPAX at Vanguard (ntf, $1,000 minimum) For me the fund seems to have similar risk characteristics to OSTIX with the advantage of being sold ntf.
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