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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SP500 $VIX vs Nasdaq 100 $VXN
    Today started as an up day, but ended as a down day due to a C-19/Omicron case found in CA in a fully vaccinated person who returned from S Africa.
    An odd observation in some recent down days has been that SP500/SPY $VIX has been almost same or higher than Nasdaq 100/QQQ $VXN. This is very unusual for these 2 volatility indicators. Clearly, SP500 is a blend while Nasdaq 100 is large-cap growth heavy in techs. This is an ongoing battle between cyclicals and growth and news of the day favors one or the other.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p56537685927
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Speaking of DKNG - I track it and it’s off 6.75% for the day at $32 plus change. Reports are Cathie bought a truck load at $43-$44 a few weeks ago - Whew! Here’s a stock that’s seen close to $75 within the past year. I think it was launched couple years ago as part of a a “SPACK”. Getting spanked today for whatever reason. No idea what the trouble is. But harmed by the market saturation with too many competing plus the steep taxes states are hitting them with.
    Additional Thoughts - The stock has been subject to short selling pressure during past year. And now, with SARK opening, that pressure is probably even greater. Nuts. If Cathie buys a stock, it’s got a target on its back. :) Top institutional holders Vanguard and T. Rowe Price. I’d think safer to own it through a small cap fund.
  • Schwab needs to "re authorize" Quicken access
    I have managed to restore several of my accounts by
    1) ensuring that "Schwab" is listed as the brokerage name, not "zz-Schwab" or zzz-Schwab" on the account details window ( this is in the recommendations)
    But this still would not allow me to "Activate" the accounts with the "Schwab brokerage" link, but there is another Schwab.com listed in the "add account" drop down menu
    "Schwab Investor-C"
    This seems to work for several of the accounts but not all
    I am very discouraged by this disaster. As you mention, this is the worst snafu from Quicken in the 25 years I have been using it
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Or is it silly on my part to think that this debt will have to ever be paid?
    I’m not following everything there. I have no particular interest in Cathy except I thought the subject of a new innovative fund might be of interest on a forum devoted to investing - especially via funds. DraftKings? Illustratuve of Wood’s investments.
    Re: “the national debt”, it’s not as simple as “paying it all back.” Sovereign countries are different than individuals in that they can print money and back it with something called “full faith and credit.” You and I don’t have that capacity. So as long as the country’s GDP is growing and the country remains strong in other respects (ie defense, infrastructure, research capacity) than there is no need to repay all that debt. I’ll let the economists decide and debate what a reasonable debt level is. But No. I don’t think it all needs to be repaid.
    I’ve been reading national news publications since I was 15. Goes back to Goldwater. And this horse *** from the right about “stealing from our grandchildren” has been around a long time!
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Think we don’t have sufficient patient data to confirm the impact of Omicron on the broader population and demographic. Moderna news from Financial Times said one thing (somewhat negative) and BioNTech provided a more positive news with their vaccine. The comments in Financial Times article are well worthwhile to read.
    https://ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f
    https://ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/biontech-ceo-says-vaccine-likely-to-protect-against-severe-covid-19-from-omicron-1.5687229
    COVID situation has elevated to the top since last Friday. Will we re-visit last spring when many countries underwent lockdown? Personally I don’t think so, with the advancement on prevention (vaccines), treatment (antibodies, antiviral drugs and steroid medication). Restrictive travel has already deployed in Europe, Asia and US and that is good. Testing of air travelers and contact tracing are being used. All these practices will slow down the virus spread while buy times for the medical community and government to response. The coordination between the countries is highly encouraging.
    Learned from last spring, I will stay put and make small adjustments if necessary.
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Likely going to take another Schmeissing today, meaning REMIX/BLNDX.
    I'm out. His models obviously did not pick up swift change in trend. I don't have the facts and could be wrong as I do NOT know the details but it appears that the fund mgr had a large downdraft in 2nd half of 2018 in his old Managed Futures fund...a real arse kicking...hope that doesn't happen here. Almost like indexed across all equites and then leverages to commodities and currencies which are very difficult to get right...wrong model, wrong turn, less dough in pocket.
    Any time, drawdown ~8% within a week or so, buh-bye.
    Some think that 4500 on the SPY is the line in the sand for those technical indicator types...
    Me? With Powell talking like he did today, maybe taking the pnch bowl away quicker than many think...of course he could be just jaw boning....inflation kinda out of control...no way this is slowing down anytime soon....talk to folks who do procurement, sourcing etc. They know what is going on. Don't like the smell of any of it.
    My spidey sense, so called experience recalls many times when you get this yo-yo...more like a spring going back and forth and than boing....could be biggly boing to the downside. Very dangerous.
    For certain, I have no clue what is going to happen but I am playing it safe investment wise.
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Wood has fervent followers and strong detractors. After reaching dizzying heights the fund has slumped this year. I’m wondering how she can run an open end fund in this manner. ISTM money will flee in bad times causing all sorts of problems for management and those who hold tight.
    It must be very challenging to manage fund flows for the ARK ETFs.
    The funds generated eye-popping returns in 2020 which led to large inflows.
    "The Ark family of ETFs shot the lights out in 2020.
    All five of the firm’s mainline funds produced triple-digit returns.
    Investors took notice.
    The firm pulled in $20.5 billion in net flows in 2020, representing 646% organic growth.
    As 2020 came to a close, the firm ranked as the 11th-largest ETF provider."

    Link
    Their flagship fund, ARK Innovation, has dropped precipitously from it's February high.
    Outflows started in April (first time since Oct. 2019) and increased during the third quarter.
    "ARKK's past 10 months are not an uncommon story.
    Fear of missing out following a stellar year for a fund can drive rapid inflows, and when the fund
    is unable to repeat history, investors start to lose interest.
    Investors who lack patience often suffer the most by buying at a high and selling after a decline."

    Link
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    The Short Innovation Fund is quite unusual.
    AFAIK, this is the only fund that shorts an actively managed fund.
    Yes - That’s my understanding. I’ve followed this with interest for several months since they filed the paperwork with the SEC. SARK appears to have opened in mid November.
    Wood has fervent followers and strong detractors. After reaching dizzying heights the fund has slumped this year. I’m wondering how she can run an open end fund in this manner. ISTM money will flee in bad times causing all sorts of problems for management and those who hold tight.
    Wood has been loading up on DKNG - an online gaming / gambling company that went public only a year or two ago. Highly speculative. Got above $70 briefly within the past year. She reportedly bought a huge chunk at around $43 - $44 a couple weeks ago. This morning it fell briefly below $35. I owned a small bit once but got out. Already have more excitement than can handle investment wise - though suspect Wood’s call is the right one.
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Using QQQ as a comparison, ARK's performance (ARKK) over the last year appears to be off by 30% while QQQ is up 17%.
    Is that reflection of ARK owning over hyped, over bought companies?
    I am thinking yes.
    That said, shorting seems like just another hype.
    That said, it appears ARK is still correcting, as it is making lower lows.
    image
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    If I may digest from the original post on EM small caps for a moment. There are still few EM opportunities still available in larger caps. I use NWFFX for a number of years as a lower risk EM fund. The broader mandate allow companies that derive majority of their revenue from EM including Microsoft.
    https://morningstar.com/articles/975441/go-active-in-emerging-markets
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    This Rekenthaler M* article on EMs may be worth a read. He finds that shareholders like us (I.e., outsiders, not insiders) have not seen our EM investments pay anywhere near what the growth rates of the various countries would suggest, especially since the GFC.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1032995/emerging-markets-equities-a-promise-half-fulfilled
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Thanks for putting up those figures, @JonGaltill. I got caught with ARTYX.
    Strangely, WAEMX, (Wasatch EM SC Fund) holds, according to M*, only 8.72% in SC and MC, whilst it has 53.43% in giant and LC. It's no small-cap fund, but it has done just fine this year. Avoidance of China (some 5%) and big slices of Indian and Taiwanese stocks appear to be the secret sauce. Wasatch itself has this to say: "Seeks the highest-quality small-cap growth companies in emerging markets."
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    What a difference a year makes. Fun reviewing previous commentary about the EM market now that it's close to year end.
    Here's the performance YTD:
    ARTYX -4.19%
    FSEAX -8.55%
    WAESX +16.11
    MIOPX -2.02
    WAEMX +24.13
    And a link on WAEXS courtesy of Kiplinger/ Nov 24: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/mutual-funds/603792/wasatch-emerging-markets-smallcap-goes-its-own-way
    ARTYX and FSEAX = not my finest choices for 2021. Should have exited back in March.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    @hank - Aside from a minor nit, I agree with you. Though a fund that's 94% long and 6% short is net 88% long. TSMRX (equity) is 31.74% long, 37.54% short, for a small net negative position of -5.80%.
    What you wrote about the quality of bonds being what matters tends to weaken the idea the BAMBX made money on Friday basically because it was in bonds. Especially with these funky funds, you can't tell much from their allocations alone.
    Here's an interesting comparison. Two funds with very similar allocations, both across asset classes and by bond ratings:
    Asset allocations (fund 1 vs fund 2):
    US equity:       11.28% vs. 10.32%
    Foreign equity:-0.70% vs. 0.90%
    Fixed income: 77.38% vs. 82.64%
    Other:             0.00% vs 0.04%
    Cash:             9.90% vs 4.72%
    Not classified: 2.14% vs. 1.38%
    Viewed from the perspective of equity and debt (fixed income + cash), the two sets of allocations are close together. In addition, while both funds' equity lean toward value, fund 1 has a lower average market cap. Lower market cap stocks tended to do worse on Friday. (Source: morningstar home page, with a style box currently showing Friday's returns for each style.)
    Bond allocations (fund 1 vs. fund 2)
    AAA: 31.6% vs. 33.5%
    AA:  1.4% vs. 4.21%
    A:   12.9% vs 12.3%
    BBB: 13.9% vs. 16.4%
    BB:  19.7% vs. 16.10%
    B:   15.0% vs. 13.0%
    Below B: 0.9% vs 3.55%
    Not Rated: 4.5% vs 1.0%
    Fund 1 has less in IG bonds (BBB and above) in nearly every category, and it has more BB and B junk bonds. Given Friday's flight to quality, as with the equity side this suggests that fund 1 would likely have done worse than fund 2.
    Overall the differences are minor. The first fund, not surprisingly given the 77% allocation to bonds, is BAMBX. Lewis wrote in Barron's that the core of the fund (about half) is high quality bonds. M*'s take is a little different, it characterizes this part of the portfolio as multisector. 35% junk does lend support to that. So I compared this fund to a multisector bond fund.
    Some multisector funds went up on Friday, some down. For a good allocation match, I used RPSIX as the second fund. A nearly plain vanilla multisector fund with a dash of equities. It went down 0.2% Friday, while BAMBX went up 0.2%.
    Bond funds go up, bond funds go down, even with the same credit quality allocations, even with the same 10% net allocation in equities. Especially on any given day. It doesn't seem to matter so much that BAMBX is 77% in bonds as what those bonds are (type and duration).
    With this I'm just echoing what you wrote:
    Likely that includes many other types of credit. Quite conceivably, very short dated treasury
    Sources (all portfolio figures are as of Sept 30, 2021):
    - for asset allocations, the funds' respective M* portfolio pages.
    - for credit quality allocations: M* portfolio page for RPSIX; Blackrock's fund fact sheet for BAMBX.
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/fact-sheet/bambx-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-factsheet-us09260c1099-us-en-individual.pdf
  • High Yield Bond Sales Soar to Record / WSJ
    Excerpt from Saturday’s (November 27) Wall Street Journal
    “Investors’ hunt for higher fixed-income returns has powered sales of low-rated corporate bonds to a record. U.S. companies, including medical supplier Medline Industries LP and videogame maker Roblox Corp., have sold more than $455 billion of bonds with speculative-grade credit ratings this year through Monday … That already beats the full-year total for 2020, when junk-bond sales set a then-record of $435 billion.
    “This year’s bond sales mark a notable reversal from the spring of 2020, when investors’worries about widespread bankruptcies and defaults sparked a selloff in low-rated debt … In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund warned that increased leverage could make the financial system more vulnerable to corrections…”

    Subscription Required https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-yield-bond-sales-soar-to-record-as-investors-have-few-other-places-to-go-11637931601?mod=hp_lead_pos4
  • Oil Price Slumps on Fears of New Covid-19 Restrictions / WSJ
    Excerpt from Saturday’s (November 27) Wall Street Journal:
    “South Africa’s warning of a new and fast-spreading strain of coronavirus walloped the energy sector on Friday, leading to the sharpest declines in oil prices since the global economy locked down early last year to slow the spread of the deadly virus. Oil prices fell more than 11%. Gasoline and diesel futures each dropped more than 12%.”
    Subscription required https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-slumps-on-fears-of-new-covid-19-restrictions-11637953717
    Wanted to post this because somewhere else I reported the one-day drop at around 6%. Actually it was double what I first thought. A lot of natural resource & commodities funds have heavy weightings in energy. Personally, I’ve pretty much vacated those funds. Was way too early, but glad to be out.
    From watch-list Friday: BRCAX -3.6% / PRAFX -3.13% / PRNEX -2.8%
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    Apparently I didn't communicate well. I was trying to point out that one can't infer much from percentages of long and short, let alone net allocation percentages, for much but vanilla funds.
    So in observing that BAMBX was 165/65, which superficially looks reminiscent of 130/30 funds, I should have emphasized "superficially". Strategy matters a lot.
    In market neutral funds, shorts roughly balance the longs (as in BAMBX, where the equity portion is 53/43 long/short). Market neutral funds use shorts to tamp down volatility. OTOH, funds that are net long (~100%) in the market while shorting generally are using the shorts aggressively as a source of cash to add to their long positions.
    Likewise, my observation that TMSRX lost money on Friday despite its substantially long bond position (and insignificantly short equity position) was a response to the speculation that "77% in bonds likely reason [BAMBX] was up a bit yesterday".
    If 77% in bonds helped BAMBX, wouldn't 48% in bonds similarly have helped TMSRX? Not last Friday. Often one can't glean much from net allocations. Especially day to day.
    Regarding TMSRX, it currently uses ten different strategies. At least that's how TRP enumerates them:
    T. Rowe Price is continuously researching new strategies that may be employed at any time. The current strategies used as components of the fund’s overall portfolio are as follows:
    Macro and Absolute Return Strategy ...
    Fixed Income Absolute Return Strategy ...
    Equity Research Long/Short Strategy ...
    Quantitative Equity Long/Short Strategy ...
    Volatility Relative Value Strategy ...
    Style Premia Strategy ...
    Dynamic Global FX ...
    Dynamic Credit ...
    Global Stock ...
    Sector Strategies ...
    Each of the strategies is constructed using its own specific investment process ...
    Fund prospectus.
    That's just the strategies. Tactics seem to include buying and selling almost anything under the sun. And it's hard to tell what the fund is "thinking".
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    M* Portfolio "% Below 52-wk High" is price-based and is not reliable as distributions are not accounted for. The other thing to note is that for bond funds, the high was in December 2020 while for stocks in November 2021. Stockcharts provides better information.
    LINK1 Prices
    LINK2 Reinvested
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    “It's not so easy to figure out what these sorts of funds are doing.”
    Agreed, it’s very difficult to get “under the hood” of a fund like this. But, if anyone here can, it’s probably @msf - :) With TMSRX’s meager low single digit returns (and apparently many fleeing for greener pastures) I’m not too worried about the degree of risk they’re assuming. If the fund were cranking out 15% annual, I wouldn’t own it. That would be completely out of character with its stated purpose and the risk profile Price has established for it.
    “TMSRX is net 48% long in fixed income and net 6% short in equity, both of which should have helped its performance Friday, yet it dropped ½%.”
    Not so fast. There are 5 different investment approaches outlined and utilized by the fund. You’ve mentioned 2 or 3. And Friday may have been an aberration for a number of reasons, including very thin trading in the U.S. plus the fact that many international exchanges had suffered severe losses before the U.S. even opened.
    Let’s look at how some some common hedges fared Friday. Real Estate and Utilities both were off 2% or more - despite falling rates. Commodities / metals fell in sync with equities. Long bonds prospered - but do you want to own a lot of those? Furthermore, fixed income need not consist of “long only ” bonds. Several of Price’s allocation funds utilize its Dynamic Income fund which tends to move opposite the direction of typical bonds. The investor class, RPIEX, actually lost .82% percent Friday.
    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/overview.asp?symbol=RPIEX.O.
    Let’s give TMSRX another day or two to prove itself - assuming Friday was the beginning of something worse. The benefits of a fund like this don’t always kick-in on day 1 of a broad market selloff. If folks aren’t comfortable with these types of funds, that’s fine. There are other ways to hedge risk, including building cash. I will tell you I work very hard to run a hedged portfolio, including about 5% currently in TAIL - Yet TMSRX did better than I did Friday.