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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • giroux new interview
    Nice discussion. Thanks folks. No longer own PRWCX so haven’t listened to the interview. Agree with your high appraisal of the fund and Giroux. Already a legendary investor.
    Noting Giroux has lightened up on the Mag 7 …. Perhaps remotely related - To show how hard NVDA and some of the high flyers have been hit lately, PRPFX (+4.9% YTD) managed to close down 0.50% a couple days ago in spite of a very good day for gold. People tend to overlook that that fund allocates 15% to “aggressive growth” stocks. NVDA was one of the stocks propelling it much higher a year ago.
    BTW - I was looking over Stack’s late February newsletter last evening. If I’m reading his charts accurately, utilities were the cheapest equity sector on a relative basis compared to all other sectors at time of publication. Most interesting.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • One time Social Security payments mystery
    Good luck calling the SSA. I had to call them again last week because My Social Security a/c got locked. There was a 2-hr wait, so I chose the callback option, and it came after 3 hrs, 20 min. I was told it was because of customer request, and I told them that I was the customer and I did nothing like that.
    It so happens that I have had to contact SSA several times in the recent weeks Re WEP & GPO problems. Each time, I have to get through 4-5 questions to get verified. But those are the SAME 4-5 questions, and if someone overheard the call, my guess is that person may also get through as me.
    This week's Barron's has this on SSA (my summary):
    There are proposals for the SSA to discontinue phone services for benefits processing and changing direct-deposit information, shut several field offices and cut the SSA workforce. Cost cutting, efficiency and banking security are cited as reasons. But the SSA confirmed only making immediate changes to modify banking information for direct deposits. The proposed changes would make it more difficult for many seniors and disabled to access their SSA benefits.
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Grifters gonna grift. I asked WH faith advisor Ms. White about accepting meme coin, she said no. I then countered with a dozen eggs, and she still said no....though she hesitated on that one. So now it's up to me to pray for Hank and Derf!
    The markets got a bump on Friday from Chuck Schumer rolling over for MAGA - agreeing to support the GOP spending bill and thus lowering the threat of a govt shutdown.
    Equities should remain an adventure in the weeks ahead, unless our grand leader capitulates on these tariffs. Let us "pray" that this is all short-term noise and not long-term damage, but I do not appreciate being told by the grand leader that the sacrifice will be worth it.
    Red flags and alarm bells aplenty.
    As future economic reports roll in, the market will be on high-alert. Even jittery. This could get ugly fast.
    The flight to safety feels like stage 1 of this process. BRK is still near 52 week highs. HY has held up ok so far, only small cracks showing. Stage 2 should be real interesting.
    JD_co in Other Investing
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    It's interesting to me that the anodyne analysts never bother to examine the effects of previous tariffs on markets.
    Here is one example from Trump's favorite president: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/03/03/trade-wars-come-with-a-price-and-investors-may-already-paying-it/
    WABAC WABAC in Other Investing
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    14 March, 2025. Conversation with Lofti Karoui (Goldman) was worth listening to. He asserts that macro uncertainty right now is the biggest consideration. Technicals still matter, but by far, the fluid, uncertain political and economic environment is the elephant in the room.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Costco eggs yesterday: $14+ per dozen.

    I knew egg prices were high but this is crazy!
    I wasn't aware eggs became this expensive since I usually have cereal for breakfast.

    Observant, the following is not directed at you. its simply an observation re the Great Egg Hysteria of 2025 gneerally....
    3/11 stopped at my local Kroger this afternoon. Decided to see what the big fuss about "omigod egg prices are sooo high.." Bought 1 dozen large eggs for $4.39. That wasn't a special promotion, no coupon was used. Its simply the price staring me in the face on my store receipt.
    If the merchant you patronize is price-gouging eggs, maybe do some comparison shopping? Most major cities have ethnic grocery stores (Latin, Asian). Generally ethnic grocers charge a lot less for unpackaged foods than do their American counterparts. I would think that a trip to one's local grocer might be worth it to those who are stressing about their eggs. Maybe its time to tear up the Costco membership, avoid Whole Foods, and visit the local Asian grocer? Maybe avoid the $6 coffees at Starbucks too? Costco in particular, generates a lot of (well-deserved) consumer loyalty.. perhaps they are trying to exploit that where customers will just shrug their shoulders and not blink at the prices for eggs, given all the 'static' about egg prices?

    Eddie, I am concerned with your eyesight. Today, 1 dozen Kroger brand large eggs are $5.49 at the Kroger on Mockingbird Ln off of 75.
    Mona, 2 things: I don't believe you are concerned with my eyesight, and my local Kroger is not at the location you cite. Again, the reco is 'comparison shop' -- for those stressing about egg prices.
    Edmond in Other Investing
  • Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown
    At crash. You sure have Israel on the brain.
    I pay attention to the news. Israel has gone from bad to worse in the way it implements policies. It has become a rogue State. The Orange Puke is operating without any guardrails. Israel operates with no guardrails, either. The Israeli regime screws and destroys Palestinian lives with every chance they get. And the US has assisted, every step of the way. "The only democracy in the Middle East." They've not behaved like one, even going back to the days before the State was established.
    https://www.jonathan-cook.net/books/disappearing-palestine/
    https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-trump-somaliland-sudan-somalia-575e03aaa0c487bae2fbadfdef8f5ca3
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • giroux new interview
    Hard time simply following him, understanding him, this time. But I still am convinced he's really good at what he does. 53.36% of portfolio is with PRCFX and PRWCX.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (03/14/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:35 Topics
    01:56 There Will Be Blood
    13:25 Don't Rule Out a Comeback
    19:08 Fear Is Good
    26:13 Why You Diversify
    35:50 Easing Inflation
    39:56 Rising Net Worth
    Video
    Blog
    Observant1 in Other Investing
  • giroux new interview
    Thank you very much. This hour-long interview provides more information on Giroux and his portfolio management this year. Additional noteworthy points he made:
    1. PRWCX is now at 51% equity whereas historically stock allocation is at 60%.
    2. All sectors of S&P 500 are over-valued comparing to the historical value. TRP continues to monitor for pockets of opportunities - mostly GARP like stocks with good earning and reasonable multiples.
    3. He likes the combination of bank loans and treasury so to complement each other through the rise and fall of interest rate cycle. He call them “peanut butter & jelly” sandwich.
    4. He is not a fan of Trump’s tariffs and their consequences.
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • S&P 500 slides into correction territory as Trump trade wars spook investors
    Today was a rare 10 to 1 up volume over down volume on the NYSE. At one time one of the better buy signals (especially after market declines). Another one in the next week or two would be even more potent. However this signal was pretty worthless during the 2022 bear market.
    Yep. And on the matter of the big "up" days --- a point touched on in the Tom Lee video (but with which I disagree)... Wall Street firms/advisors frequently cite that "if you miss the 10, 15, 20 biggest 'up days' in the market, then your returns will suffer horribly.. But what they fail do mention is that almost all of the biggest 'up days' occur as brief, counter-trend rallies within a longer-term bear trend. So, in the 21st century, most of the biggest % up days happened in 2007-2008. In the 20th century, most occured during the 1929-33 super bear.
    Frankly, I'd prefer to miss the biggest "up days" if it also meant side-stepping the bear markets that those up-days typically occur in.
    Edmond in Other Investing
  • As global tariff tensions rise, here's the latest on U.S. trade with top partners
    Yep, its all part of encouraging bilateral trade discussions, by helping foreign govts to focus on making trade arrangements which are less dis-advantageous to the US, than most prior admins have done.
    S. Korea, I know a bit about -- have a friend who migrated from SK to the US. She volunteered that SK is extremely protectionist of its auto industry in particular. SK levies very heavy tariffs on any non SK autos. Meanwhile, they are given an easy / low-tariff market here in the states to sell plenty Kias and Hyundais.
    The trade rules have been grossly uneven for decades against the US and in favor of our trading 'partners'. I suspect a lot of it was to 'buy' military/strategic allies to contain the USSR -- basically, we allowed the US middle class to be destroyed -- offshored. The Cold War ended 35 years ago. Long since time to require reciprocal trading arrangements.
    Countries which will want access to our market will renegotiate/agree to the fair trade. Those that don't are free to develop their economies without a subsidy from the US working man/working woman.
    Edmond in Other Investing
  • Rekenthaler: it's not all about the tariffs
    /// BARTIROMO: Investors are on edge over the possibility of a recession after the Atlanta Fed predicted a 2.4% contraction this quarter
    LUTNICK: What? Say that again? 2.4% contraction?! Right here right now -- that is ridiculous
    Wow! That is all I can say politely. This is old news. Our poster, @yogibb covered this new on March 1, 2025. Not only Atlanta Fed noticed the negative GDP. So did Piper Sandler.
    Noted in Barron's - Economy:
    Atlanta Fed GDPNow is projecting economic contraction for 2025/Q1 of -1.5% (real) vs +2.3% previously, while Piper Sandler switched to -2% from +2% previously.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63429/they-crashed-the-economy-in-2008-now-they-re-back-and-bigger-than-ever/p1
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Speaking of MAGA economic excuses (bold added)...or this just a MAGA con?
    https://www.salon.com/2025/03/14/you-must-sacrifice-maga-excuses-for-trade-echo-prosperity-preachers/
    "You must sacrifice": MAGA excuses for Trump's trade war echo "prosperity" preachers
    Trump's closest faith "advisor" teaches that if you give her money, God will reward you with riches."
    "White House faith adviser Paula White says there is a narrow "prophetic season" for God to bless you, but only if you give her $133, so act now."
    JD_co in Other Investing
  • Rekenthaler: it's not all about the tariffs
    Rekenthaler makes a good case. (I hadn’t time to read it prior to my earlier post.) Close cousins of his speculative investors are the momentum based ones. I hadn’t even realized that was an accepted strategy until I began listening to dozens of Meb Faber podcasts (a great bedtime sleep inducer and interesting as well).
    Faber and some professionals interviewed make a case for a small (10-20%) allocation to a a momentum approach (buy what’s been going up / sell what’s falling), claiming it also prevents steep losses in prolonged bear markets. Several Cabrera funds incorporate or rely fully on “momentum / trend following” approaches. I’m not sold. Sounds a lot like the elephant chasing his tail to me. Recently sold my 17.5% portfolio stake in one of Cambrea’s etfs. Aside from the issue above, I was surprised how difficult it can be to unload 100% of a thinly traded etf. Enough to make me steer clear in the future.
    Thanks David for the thread.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    @larryB - Yes, my younger self also responded differently from the current me. I was w*rking in 2000 and 2008 then and socking money into my retirement funds while they were cheaper. My equity position was approx 75% at the time. As I entered retirement 7 years ago, I reduced to 35% and then during the 2020 recession I timidly added to stocks.
    I agree, this time may be completely different as noted by previous posters and threads. I have kept a significant (for me) cash stash, to aid my wife and me through this *downturn.* Enough to cover 2-3 years even if social security is impacted.
    So my head isn’t in the sand regarding our nation, economy, and stock market; and I’m not looking to be *right* in this post. I am looking for direction just like everyone here, and find evaluating the data that the stock market is giving, even if it becomes stale immediately, that’s what I’ve got.
    I may be looking at the wrong data and would always appreciate additional information.
    Level5 in Other Investing
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    At Level5. Speaking for myself,,,, how I responded to significant market events 18 or ten years before retirement has little in common with my response in 2025. Younger me was out to grow my nest egg and old me is out to preserve it. The fear factor is real and that doesn’t even factor in that this time really is different. The rule of law no longer applies. Maybe in six months the fog of war will lift but maybe in 20 months a national emergency will be declared and the mid terms will be called off. Nobody knows.
    larryB in Other Investing
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”

    The fear-factor in the current climate is real for me, so I’m looking for data that I can understand to offset any emotional high-jacking.
    Not sure that data will be of much help as there is no playbook for dealing with this type of situation. Our best hope is that he will flinch soon enough and remove his damaging tariffs - unless his intention is to simply bring this country to its knees.
    JD_co in Other Investing
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    The author opened with this: “ President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules. A lot of people are wondering what it all means for the economy, jobs, housing, inflation and the stock market.
    The truth is no one knows. But the best guess lies in the collective wisdom of markets — the countless independent buy and sell decisions manifested in stock and bond prices.”
    I found the quantitative argument by the author had merit. He listed his reasoning by looking at how slow downs to recessions show-up through treasury, credit, and stock earnings price, and inflation expectations.
    Still, I wish I had moved more of my (now) 35% equity in retirement funds to cash instruments. But I had not. My urge to sell was/is tempered by the previous recoveries from 2000, 2008, and 2020.
    The fear-factor in the current climate is real for me, so I’m looking for data that I can understand to offset any emotional high-jacking.
    Level5 in Other Investing
  • Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
    Thanks to @LewisBraham, the article describes why Ivascyn move the bond sectors PIMIX’s to another while increasing the quality and duration from 9/31/20 to 1/31/25.
    excerpt:
    “One of the core themes that we have today is that bonds are cheap, stocks look expensive, and credit spreads are tight, so focus on higher-quality investments,” he says. “Be patient and don’t overly trade the market.”
    Sven in Fund Discussions