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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    My question starts with why do you need a core bond fund?
    I looked at CBLDX and IMO, it's better than all the funds above.
    I checked from 1-1-2020 and it's number one.
    For one year it's not number 1, but it's still among the top.
    And it's the best risk/reward fund, AKA Sharpe.
    It still pays about 5.3% yearly dist based on last month.
    The manager's track record is known.
  • Vanguard to Offer Crypto ETFs on its Brokerage Platform
    Not-the-mainstream-news media is reporting that "never-crypto" Vanguard is now considering offering crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform.
    Not on the mainstream media yet, but not denied by Vanguard either.
    https://coincentral.com/kraken-raises-500m-in-funding-round-valuing-crypto-exchange-at-15b/
    https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/575070-vanguard-bitcoin-etf/
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    I will transfer the pre-tax portion of my 401(k) to a Rollover IRA and need to replace the bond fund — DOXIX.
    DOXIX is a good fund which resides in the M* Intermediate Core-Plus category.
    I've expanded the search beyond Intermediate Core and Intermediate Core-Plus bond funds
    that many investors utilize for their primary fixed income positions.
    Desirable characteristics are listed below.
    at least 5 years of operating history but preferably more than 10 years¹
    short-to-intermediate term duration
    typically holds < 20% high-yield bonds
    typically holds < 20% EM bonds
    low/moderate volatility and max drawdowns
    expense ratio preferably < 1.00%
    Here are several funds which are/were being considered (~dozen others were reviewed).
    PFIIX
    PGBIX
    WCPBX
    GBOAX (too much high-yield, lots of EM also)
    DODLX (good trailing returns, low expenses, too volatile)
    I've read the posts in the Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs thread.
    I'm open to your suggestions — thanks in advance!
    ¹ Unless portfolio managers ran other funds with a similar strategy for > 5 years.
  • How did your portfolio do today
    Yup. Come to think of it, I dunno why my 3 single-stocks have not been assigned negative beta! But they were up while all else in the portfolio was down. Overall, on 25th Sept, '25:
    down by -0.29%.
    Stuff can't go up in a straight line. Mr. Market continues to ignore the political craziness.... until he can't any longer. By then, we'll all be screwed. In a sense we ALL already are. And SWVXX is down below 4%, at 3.99% yield. Stinky poopies. Time has come, I think to begin to think of my junk bonds as my cash substitute. Yes, the bond fund share prices can fall. But my chosen funds seldom fall 2 or 3 cents before they gain it back. Biggest junk holding offers 6.92% yield. The other offers 7.3%, still. Even in that dreadful year ('21? '22?) I just rode them down and then back up. No hurry, no urgency.
  • Johnathan Clements
    My first investment book was Andrew Tobias’ The Only Investment GuideYou’ll Ever Need. Most memorable point was that if the stock market ever enters bubble territory you should sell everything and move to cash. I may now be in flagrant violation of Tobias’ advice.
    I didn’t know FD needed books. Seems to operate by Divine Inspiration.
    I read many investment books/articles and many papers trying to find how to have a better risk/reward performance. I found it in 2000.
    After 2008, when I lost 25%, the only year I ever lost, I did a lot more reading and research on how to do timing. I tested hundreds of scenarios but none worked. I had to invent it.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!

    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.

    Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts.
    RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
    Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
    I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
    But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
    See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
    (
    link).
    You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)

    The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
    You are concentrating on the wrong things:
    * DT doesn't care about ONLY performance. He cares a lot more about performance and volatility for his own goals. BGHIX would never be an option.
    * My style and goals are a bit different. I don't mind taking more risk/SD but only to a certain point. Investing in BGHIX long term for me would be rare. I'm looking for funds that have done well lately + very low SD. I'm also a slow trader. I don't care what BGHIX did 3-4-8 years ago. The fact remains that HOSIX did great during 2023-4.
    * If I was looking to hold several years from today, I would hold EGRIX, not BGHIX. Of course the future is unknown, which is why I have never committed to holding since 2000 while I see better funds.
  • Horseracing Boom
    Expected or unintended consequence of tax policy?
    OBBB allows 100% depreciation (deduction) for racehorses as well as needed equipment, barns, etc. Deduction can be against any income. The horseracing industry has perked up.
    Add that to online sports-betting that has taken off.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/racehorse-keeneland-auction-breeding-racing-obbb-tax-breaks.html
  • Sentiment & Market Indicators, 9/24/25
    SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 9/24/25
    AAII Bull-Bear Spread +2.5% (below average; bipolar)
    CNN Fear & Greed Index 57 (greed)
    NYSE %Above 50-dMA 63.14% (positive)
    SP500 %Above 50-dMA 54.60% (positive)
    These are contrarian indicators.
    INVESTOR CONCERNS: Tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, debt, budget, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (187+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+26 weeks).
    For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up.
    SEC has relaxed its approval criteria for crypto ETFs. FINRA is proposing rules that will make day-trading easier. Private-equity/credit is coming to 401k/403b. Investors will have to assess the risks arising from these changes.
    #AAII #CNN #Sentiment
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2223/thread
  • How did your portfolio do today
    Wednesday, 24th Sept, '25.
    2 of my 3 single-stocks were up. All else was red. Worst performer: BLX. ET roused from slumber and surged. We'll see what tomorrow brings for THAT one. Can't explain it. I've seen no news.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added bit more risk today. Should raise the equity position from 26% closer to 30%. Buys included a few shares of CZR priced around $26.50.
    Edit. I fumbled the hand-off and sold CZR the next day. Too hot to handle. I’m sure it will join the growing club of stocks I bailed from early only to watch them grow 5X in the following few years. Replaced CZR’s 2% position with UTF which is selling at an unusually attractive discount.
    BTW - That’s a great photo above.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    @WABC. Rates will continue to lower if FED independence is destroyed. Seems that is going to happen and sooner rather than later. And if all the data the new fed gets is garbage , they can justify any rates the boss demands.
    IIRC all the Fed controls is the overnight rate. In my perplexity, I asked Perplexity: Where have treasury rates gone since the rate cut?
    Since the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury rates have actually risen rather than fallen. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently about 4.14%, up slightly from around 4.01% shortly before the Fed's rate cut. Similarly, the 30-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.76%, indicating a rise as well. Shorter-term rates, such as the 5-year Treasury, are around 3.71%, also ticking higher. The effective federal funds rate dropped 25 basis points to about 4.08% after the cut, but the longer-term Treasury yields have not followed the typical pattern of decreasing; instead, they have increased or remained stable since the cut.
    This phenomenon, where long-term yields rise after a rate cut, has been observed previously and is often influenced by inflation expectations and supply-demand dynamics in the bond market rather than just the Fed's policy rates. The yield curve has steepened, and mortgage rates have also moved higher despite the short-term rate cut.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!

    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.

    Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts.
    RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
    Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
    I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
    But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
    See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
    (
    link).
    You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)

    The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
  • Proposed FINRA Rule Will Make Day-Trading Easier
    From*
    "FINRA’s draft proposal would:
    Reduce the minimum account equity for pattern day trading from $25,000 to $2,000
    Eliminate the blanket three-trade limit over five days
    Allow individual broker-dealers to set their own minimum thresholds above $2,000 and determine house-level risk controls"
    Proposal needs approval from SEC.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/24/day-trading-is-about-to-get-easier-for-smaller-retail-investors.html
    *https://braedenanderson.com/insights/finras-25k-rule-is-on-the-chopping-block-what-a-lower-pdt-threshold-could-mean-for-retail-trading
    https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/us-day-traders-may-no-longer-need-25k-minimum-equity-as-finra-proposes-margin-standards/
  • New SEC Standard Clears the Way for More Crypto ETPs
    Crypto ETFs set to flood U.S. market as regulator streamlines approvals
    ".....The vote last week by the SEC to adopt new listing standards eliminates the need for individual regulatory review of each crypto ETF application, allowing products that meet predetermined standards to launch without a lengthy case-by-case approval process. That will slash the approval time for new crypto products to 75 days or less, from up to 270 days previously, industry sources said.....To benefit from the new, speedier process, an ETF must meet at least one of three principal criteria. If the coin underpinning the proposed ETF already trades on a regulated market or has futures contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that have traded for at least six months, it qualifies.....Alternatively, the existence of another ETF tied to that coin that has at least 40 per cent of its assets invested in the cryptocurrency itself rather than options or swaps would open the door to approval....."
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2025/09/24/crypto-etfs-set-to-flood-us-market-as-regulator-streamlines-approvals/
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!

    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.
    Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts.
    RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
    Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
    I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
    But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
    See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
    (link).
    You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    During ZIRP, a number of corporations offered (uninsured) accounts similar to savings or checking accounts backed by the corporation but with higher yields. One that might ring a faint bell was GMAC Demand Notes, later Ally Demand Notes (still uninsured). That, like most, went the way of the dodo.
    https://lifetimeplanning.com/hot-off-the-press/demand-notes-from-gmac-to-ally-to-you-now-what
    I was able to find one that still exists, though I don't recommend it. GM Financial Right Notes.
    https://www.rightnotes.com/en-us/home.html
    Last week it was yielding 4.5%, this week, 4.25% IMHO not enough to compensate for the risk, even for a liquid investment.
  • High Earners Age 50 and Older Are About to Lose 'Catch-Up' privileges in 401Ks
    the IRS is looking to restrict retirement savings
    The IRS had little to do with this other than restate what Congress required. Give credit where credit is due.
    SECURE 2.0 introduced two notable changes to this system:
    mandatory Roth treatment for catch-up contributions by high earners for taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2023
    optional "super catch-up" contributions for participants ages 60 to 63 for taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2024
    https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/05/irs-proposes-key-changes-to-roth-catch-up-contributions
    As a practical matter, the executive branch does have limited discretion in carrying out what Congress says, especially in making sure that the law can actually be executed:
    Due to concerns that plan sponsors and recordkeepers would be unable to comply with the mandatory Roth catch-up requirement by the original deadline, Notice 2023-62 provided a transition period that delayed the effective date until Jan. 1, 2026 (although, a later effective date may apply for collectively bargained plans).
    Even Congress isn't restricting retirement savings; see e.g. rforno's post above. What Congress has always done is to restrain the government's largesse by limiting contributions. That's far and away the larger restriction. And with its new "super catch up" provision, Congress is enabling earners to shelter of another $11K of assets that would otherwise sit in taxable accounts.
    Still, not to worry if you're a really high earner (read business partner). Congress continues to give them favorable tax treatment on profit sharing (carried interest) and even on catch up contributions:
    No FICA Wages, No Roth Mandate. Participants without FICA wages (e.g., partners who have only self-employment income) are not subject to the Roth requirement.
  • giroux m* update
    From the previously linked report::
    The loan market has grown substantially over the past 20 years to $1.6 trillion in size, now exceeding the high yield bond market in total par outstanding. Concurrent with the growth of the market has been a gradual shift lower in credit quality, when measured using rating agencies as a proxy. Since 2005, the median issuer net leverage in the loan market has increased more than in the high yield bond market. As a result, while the high yield market has “high-graded” in recent years, the average quality in the loan market has shifted from previously a BB oriented market to a segment that is more single-B focused.
    A little while back I posted a commentary from OSTIX noting the same phenomena. At the time they weren't feeling the need to get into bank loans.
    Since bank loans are still around 27% of the income sleeve at PRWCX, I hope they are as judicious as the folks at Artisan Partners claim to be.
  • High Earners Age 50 and Older Are About to Lose 'Catch-Up' privileges in 401Ks
    SECURE 2.0 (2022) - Final IRS rules for Catchups for 401k/403b
    From 2026, all catchups above the threshold at a single job must go into Roth 401k. So, below the threshold, catchups can go to 401k or Roth 401k.
    Threshold used is for income in the prior year & are inflation-adjusted: $145K (2025), $150K (2026 est)
    If Roth 401k isn’t available, then one is out of luck – complain to HR.
    Catchup for 50+ is $7,500 (2025), $8,000 (2026 est).
    Super Catchup for 60-63 is $11,250 (2025, 2026 est). It’s about 150% of the regular catchup amount.
    Relevant age is for the DOB in the applicable calendar year.
    Estimates will have to be confirmed by IRS later.
    403b rules are similar to 401k, but there is also a limited 15-yr catchup.
    Catchup for IRA & HSA is $1K. These have their own income limits.
    IRS Final Rules, 9/15/25
    https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/treasury-irs-issue-final-regulations-on-new-roth-catch-up-rule-other-secure-2point0-act-provisions
    (LONG) https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/09/16/2025-17865/catch-up-contributions
    Some IRS links in 09/2025 show rules only for 2025, not for 2026.
    Other Sources
    https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/high-earners-age-50-and-older-are-about-to-lose-a-major-401-k-tax-break-75572091?mod=hp_lead_pos11
    https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/catch-up-contributions