Yeah I'm going to run right out and buy a 5.25% loaded fund in 2021. LOL

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937721000020/g75042_485a.htm
Royce Premier Fund
Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Fund
Royce Special Equity Fund

Ya, I guess with Dr Hussman the old saying, I'd rather be rich than right comes to mind. Have to state, if you read his commentary, directionally it makes a lot of rational sense...kind of the opposite of GME, Gamestop, ARK moonshot investing, etc.
Candidly, I always found it interesting that those who did NOT sell in 08'-09' and just held were considered "smart investors". As I recall at the time, the market could have easily lost another 50% at the lows, no one knew that the Bernake and the Fed were going to implement QE. Back then saw many "wise" investors come back to work after they retired as they "buy and hold'ed" and got sawed in half, 401k to 201k, home values plummeted, dangerous, frightening times...remember talk one weekend of the entire financial system locking up...thank goodness Paulsen saved us (sarc or did he really?)
I'm more interested in HSAFX than the older growth fund HSGFX...the former being more of an allocation fund. That being said I can't seem to purchase HSAFX thru Schwab. I think it's going to take combo of technical, trend and valuation investing skill sets and sure, pure luck to make sustainable money in the markets this year.
Best,
Baseball Fan

@davidmoran @stillers - Your criticism is also less than actionable and lowers rather elevates. Shut up and Move on.

Har. Touchy and proprietary, are we?
So ... can you do an executive summary of this silly thing? What are its takeaways, since you find my snark 'less than actionable'?
His cherrypicking aside, not to mention the comedy bronze of his admission 'This was on the price level only' and his duh observation that cash outperforms bears, I wonder about some of the assertions.
>> 4. From 1969-1981, the stock market underperformed the rate of inflation by more than 56%. The total return for the S&P 500 from 1969-1981 was 105%. Not bad, right?
>> Well, that depends on how you think about returns. Prices rose more than 160% in that same time, meaning the stock market lost roughly 2% annually on a real basis.
Well, unless I am missing something,
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=ffidx
shows that SP500 from summer '69 to summer '81 (I don't know what his exact endpoints are) rose from $10k to >$25k. Meanwhile,
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
shows, for the same timespan or close, that $10k inflated to <$25k.
So wtf? Maybe some editor shoulda asked him for his cites and sites.
And what's with the Japan wackiness? And what's with the risk tautology hindsight at the end?
In other areas this is called portfolio churning or tirespinning. Or having a column due. And the guy manages portfolios at Ritholtz. 'Wealth of common sense' indeed.

I had a financial adviser tell me once that holding gold bars in one's house made no sense as what's to stop someone from coming to the goldbug's house and beating that person to death with their own bars? Banks exist so one doesn't have to deal with those security issues. I guess rubies are easier to conceal. But there is a technological problem in 2021: https://scmp.com/magazines/style/luxury/article/3043892/will-cartier-and-other-luxury-brands-start-using-more-lab Would someone just accept rubies, even fake ones, without being an expert in 2021? Maybe the thing to do is buy fake rubies and pass them off as real when trying to escape.
Still, if you know the history of fascism--which the riot on capitol hill was all about--seeking to overturn a democratic election via pure violence--as opposed to democratic socialism--nowhere even close to that in the U.S.--diamonds and gold sometimes helped people escape and sometimes they didn't. Biden is no socialist. Taxes will go up almost certainly, but given the debt trajectory Trump had the country on previously, taxes were bound to go up anyway. But having any taxation, contrary to popular belief, is not socialism.
As for Hussman, he's a smart guy who's been wrong. He's bound to be right eventually as davfor points out. But in investing if a manager's timing is way off on a macro prediction, he is wrong. One thing I never quite understood regarding HSGFX is it was supposed to use both valuation and technical momentum driven signals to go long or hedge the market exposure. Despite the high valuations we've seen, I would've expected some of the fund to be long--or 50% long-- given the momentum we've also seen. Perhaps the reason it was often fully hedged--and I may be answering my own question here--is that while the market was always rallying, it was a narrow rally of a few giant stocks driving the market's returns. So perhaps Hussman felt that there wasn't enough breadth in the rallies to go partially long.

T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177321000034/c497.htm
497 1 c497.htm
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF
Supplement to Prospectus Dated June 23, 2020
In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Greene joined T. Rowe Price in 2006.
In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
During the past five years, Mr. Greene has served as a portfolio manager for other
T. Rowe Price Funds and has assisted the portfolio manager in managing the fund since inception as an associate portfolio manager. He joined the Firm in 2006 and his investment experience dates from that time.
The date of this supplement is January 26, 2021.
ETF785-041 1/26/21

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/902259/000174177321000031/c497.htm
497 1 c497.htm
T. Rowe Price Funds
Supplement to the following Prospectuses, each as dated below (as supplemented):
May 1, 2020
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio
December 15, 2020
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund
In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Greene joined T. Rowe Price in 2006.
In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
During the past five years, Mr. Greene has served as a portfolio manager for other
T. Rowe Price Funds and has assisted the portfolio manager in managing the fund since January 1, 2020 as an associate portfolio manager. He joined the Firm in 2006 and his investment experience dates from that time.
The date of this supplement is January 26, 2021.
G24-041 1/26/21

...the fate of the most ambitious climate agenda ever proposed by an American president rests in his hands...Sen. Joe Manchin III

Deal Making Required

@Observant1 Same here. +0.07% on the day, Monday, 25 January, 2021.

...But look instead at the "snapshot" view of the fund, and you'll see that the actual daily performance was +1.75%.
(The lovely geniuses in charge stopped offering hard-currency amounts in that space, long ago. Percentage is offered, only.) .....MARKETWATCH shows the per share rise in actual dollars and cents to be +$1.61. And that info is available FOR FREE.

There is a way to coax the rise or fall of a fund in dollars and cents out of M* FOR FREE. Type the ticker into the search box in the upper left corner of the page. If you're lucky and you wait a little while, a dropdown will appear with the fund name, closing price, and change in price. No percentage change, though.

"The stock market is near record highs, and optimism abounds. Coronavirus vaccines are finally getting jabbed into arms. Interest rates are at historic lows. And the Democrats who control Washington are expected to pour another trillion dollars or so into the still-struggling economy.
But it’s getting increasingly difficult to overlook signs that investors are taking things too far, too fast.
The latest signal is from the somewhat obscure market for stock options, where traders can place bets with brokers that a stock will rise or fall. Speculation has reached a frenzied level not seen since the tail end of the dot-com boom two decades ago. That enthusiasm is having a growing influence over the regular stock market itself.
“If you’re betting on sports, the amount of people on one side of the bet or another can only influence the odds, not the outcome,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Conn., a major options brokerage. “In the case of options, it can actually change the outcome.”"
NY Times Article by Matt Phillips

It doesn't appear that the market is getting "crushed".
MarketWatch percentage change info for today:
Nasdaq +0.41%
S&P 500 +0.13%
DJIA -0.28%

Taking a look at inflation prospects:
The Economic Outlook: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

From a January 16 discussion at MFO.

@msf makes good points and my take-away is that we as shareholders learn late in the game what a manager’s strategy might be (or was at a point in the past). Most MF prospecti give latitude to permit an active manager to shift back and forth between growth and value, or cash and fully invested, etc. It’s nice when a fund stays true to its advertised mandate, but I suspect purity suffers in the face of markets that refuse to follow some wonk’s thinking. Once I find a fund I like, I’m inclined to let management pick the stocks.
There are stocks and countries in EM indices that do defy pigeon-holing. When I lived in Seoul in 1980-1 the excavations for the subway line revealed that underground sewer pipes were nothing more than 55-gallon drums welded together. Korea really was emerging then. Today a visitor would be struck by the modernity of the city whereas the former resident might be trying to mentally resurrect the missing odor of sewage gas that once assaulted the nostrils in the capital. One steps off the plane in New Delhi, OTOH, and one smells an acrid smoke, a combination of industrial pollutants and the open fires burning in the streets to warm people and to cook their meals. Maybe Korea should not be in EM funds, but Taiwan is pretty modern, also.

SCG MSSMX UP 5.01% today.
Just sayin'.

And my thanks for bringing it to my attention the other day. I looked at it and bought immediately; which was, fortunately, BEFORE that surprising gain! I'm a believer in the SC rotation; so your mention was timely...

That

WAS a surprising move yesterday, but keep in mind that with its 30+ SD, these kinds of daily moves happen with this fund, well, pretty much daily. You don't get to a ~150% annual TR (2020) without 'em!

I've been holding ARKW and ARKG; believe me, I'm familiar with wild swings! 8^b

It's not always easy to gauge a fund's style from its sectors, or its countries for that matter. For example, while companies in the financial sector tend to be value investments, that doesn't make something like Robinhood's anticipated IPO a value play.
In any case, according to the FSEAX's latest monthly fact sheet (Dec 31), just 9.19% of the portfolio is in financials, down from 11.07% at the end of November. In comparison, technology accounts for about 1/3 of the fund.
Zhao says that he has "reduced some positions ... that have done well and added to those that are more exposed to the value side [i.e. those that have not done well]. ... it only makes sense to take some profits off the table and begin to plan what might come next."
That sounds more like rebalancing than a change it target weighting. The interview is dated Oct 31. M*'s factor analysis based on the fund's Nov 30th portfolio shows the fund to be more toward the growth side of the value/growth spectrum than in any time over the past five years, and also more growth focused than the category average.
Regarding countries: FSEAX counts the 12% of its portfolio in Korea as EM. Most index providers consider Korea a developed country. MSCI is the laggard, still calling Korea an EM country - because the won isn't traded 24 hours/day, not because its gross national income is too low or its stock market too small (they're not).
Some investors posit that separate international funds are not needed because so many domestic countries derive much of their revenue globally. By that reasoning, what are we to say about TSMC (6% of the fund)? Is it really an EM company? Based in Taiwan, it gets 60% of its revenue from the US.
None of this is meant to suggest that FSEAX isn't good at what it does. Rather it's to suggest taking a closer look at this, or any fund, to understand what it's really doing.

here is an interview with the fund manager of FSEAX where he describes how he is rotating to value for 2021. Financials are now the largest sector in his portfolio. https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/analysis/315910851?documentType=QAA

GMO: Grantham, yes? I take what he says with a pound of salt.

+5million @crash