A bird's eye view of stock market performance in 2020:

I decided to examine year-to-date returns of every component in the S&P Total Market Index (ITOT), including large caps, mid caps, small caps, and even smaller listed companies that do not qualify for the small-cap index.

Of the nearly 3,664 listed stocks with full year 2020 returns, the median return (e.g. the 1832nd ranked return) is -14.75%. There is a large gap between the median return for U.S. stocks in 2020, and the weighted average mean performance for large cap stocks that are up between 4-5% on the year.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377000-distribution-of-u-s-stock-returns-in-2020?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=ploutos-distribution-of-u-s-stock-returns-in-2020&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-0

Yes - but only when the fund that “blew up” is held within my speculative sleeve (the equivalent of gambling). That represents anywhere from 0-15% of investments. One of the spec holds, PRLAX, has gotten shelled the past 3 or 4 sessions after rising in value for several months. WTF do I know about what’s currently going on in Brazil, Mexico or Argentina? ... Nothing!
Peter Lynch said to invest in things you understand. I went and did the opposite. :)
The torture process doesn’t carry over to the other 85-95% that’s held inside the static allocation. On any given day, some parts will shine while others fizzle. That’s an accepted part of being widely diversified.

My point is that median income increase under the current president was driven more by the top than the middle and bottom. Also, it is evident that for most Americans $750 a month into the stock market is fantasyland.

@LewisBraham
My key point: Trump is the first president since 1998 to increase the median income significantly but I can't find it in the Lib media.
You are absolutely correct about the gap. It started decades ago under both Dems+GOP presidents and will continue that way.
- Jobs in STEM will continue to make more while most others will not.
- CEOs now are making 250-300 times their average employee while they used to make about 30 times in the 80"
- We are in a global comparative world where goods/services have been going to cheaper places.
- Easier repetitive jobs are replaced by automations and robots. The scary thing, more complicated jobs have been replaced too and median jobs disappeared.

@FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
Derf

Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.

How do you square owning IOFIX with your later comment in this string to avoid risky funds?

I'm a trader and don't recommend what I do to others. My posts are generic unless someone asks me specifically about my portfolio.
This thread isn't about avoiding risky funds. Please read the original posts "What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?"
BTW, I don't believe in just lower risk funds, I believe in great risk/reward funds. You should look for funds that have good performance but also good risk attributes(SD, Max Draw, Sharpe, Sortino).
For allocation my go 2 funds are:
Moderate=PRWCX. In the last several years VLAIX is good too.
Conservative=VWINX,VWIAX

PLBBX is a balanced fund with no transaction fee at Fidelity.

That’s one that’s slipped below my radar but the downside capture of 125 gives me pause.

@FD1000

From Giroux's article:

DG: One of our favorite sectors continues to be utilities. The equity market has yet to fully grasp just how attractive utilities are today relative to the past. The emergence of low-cost renewables is a game changer for the industry. This megatrend will likely continue for the next two decades to drive an elongated cycle for replacing coal, nuclear, and inefficient natural gas with wind, solar, and battery solutions that can drive mid- to high-single-digit rate base growth, mid-single-plus earnings per share growth with attractive dividends, only modest growth in customer bills, and a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions. Given this very attractive long-term outlook combined with this significant underperformance, we believe the long-term opportunity for utilities is compelling.
Utilities is the one sector in which higher taxes don’t negatively impact earnings, as taxes are a pass-through item from a regulatory standpoint. Utilities would also benefit from a likely extension, and potential expansion, of wind and solar tax credits for renewables.
Also discussed opportunities in fixed income.

https://troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/finding-overlooked-opportunities-in-the-covid-19-market.html?cid=PI_Investment_Pilot_CAF_NoRM_EM_NonSubscriber_202009&bid=506188743&PlacementGUID=em_PI_PI_Investment_Pilot_CAF_NoRM_EM_NonSubscriber_202009-PI_Investment_Pilot_CAF_NoRM_EM_NonSubscriber_202009_20200929

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105544/000168386320013672/f6983d1.htm
He also manages some other funds:
Vanguard Global Wellesley® Income Fund
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/52848/000168386320013668/f6978d1.htm
Vanguard Global Wellington™ Fund
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/52848/000168386320013671/f6979d1.htm
Hartford Multi-Asset Income and Growth Fund
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1006415/000110465920110195/tm2031034-17_497.htm
Hartford Balanced HLS Fund
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/790558/000110465920110196/tm2031034-15_497.htm

Not trying to pile on Matthews, because I don't currently own any of their funds, but another PM recently departed after co-managing the Pacific Tiger fund for several years. He was replaced by two people, one of whom had earlier been at Matthews but then spent a short while at Seafarer (leaving there under what looked like less than the best of circumstances). Matthews appears to be a fund company in flux right now.

You're right SFnative. Just googled and found the article below from April 2020. Two PMs actually not mentioned in the recent articles also left earlier in the year: Lydia So who was lead pm on the Asia Small Fund and had been with the firm for 15 years based on her linkedin, and Rahul Gupta who was co manager of Pacific Tiger fund (this is the one you referenced) both left the firm in April 2020. Tiffany Hsiao actually took over Asia Small when Lydia departed before leaving herself a few months later.
So that's 5 very senior PMs departing in the span of 6 months, plus the President/Global CIO, COO and CHRO. I see smoke!
https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/fund-files-matthews-managers-depart-invesco-fund-under-review-after-index-error/a1354995
https://www.linkedin.com/in/lydia-so-cfa-b9b0171b3/

@FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
Derf

Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.

How do you square owning IOFIX with your later comment in this string to avoid risky funds?

@hank
Don’t sell 100 puts! Each ONE put equals 100 shares (100 shares in above example would be 100 x $200 price per share, or $20K). 100 puts would be secured by $2,000,000 (for 10K shares of $200 TSLA). You would make $225 per put, because you get $2.25 commission “per share”......and each option is worth 100 shares, or $225 total.
Works same way with calls. Each individual option is equal to 100 shares of the underlying company. Does that make sense?

@MrRuffles
The first 3 funds in the below chart are from your note. I've added FBALX because of personal bias and BRUFX is added, as it was mentioned. FPURX is a decent fund, but not charted; as it and FBALX run very close over the long term. As the account is already within Fido, I would stay there for the many choices, quality service and to not add another firm to keep paperwork simple. BRUFX is fully a stand alone fund/organization and would take you away from flexibility with fund exchanges into the future.
None of these balanced funds will keep one away from a draw down from a large market correction.
Hopefully, the chart will provide a decent visual for your purposes.
10 year chart for total returns, JABAX , BALFX , VLAAX , FBALX , BRUFX
My 2 cents.
Catch

Thanks for posting
I need to dig into this, or maybe someone else will do it for me. There seem to be relationships here that I have never seen before, for instance, why does she think total (non-business) assets per national (including business) annual output is a valid thing to track?
Equally, she notes this coincidence — “ When equities were over 20% of household assets in the late 1960's, the result over the next 10 years was about 2-3% annualized returns, which is not even adjusted for inflation. Then, when equities fell to cheap levels in the 1970's and 1980's, down to well below 10% of household assets, the annualized forward returns were over 15%, which even after adjusting for inflation were great.” — is the implication here that the crowd tends to be wrong? I don’t believe she says.
Finally, she notes — corporate equity value outweighs debt value by more than average. These seem to me to be 2 very different things. What if a corporation had only debt and no equity, think Koch Industries? Or what if an old line publicly traded company did not have any debt?

A young investor should be at 70/30, maybe even 80/20. I started investing in my late 30" and was at %100 stocks. After about 5 years I changed to about 85-90% stocks and only about 8 years prior to retirement I changed gradually but rapidly to more bonds when I was sure to hit my retirement date.

Not fantasyland huh? Consider these points:
1. 76 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck
2. 62 percent of Americans have less than 1,000 dollars in their savings account
3. 65 percent of those 65 and older have less than $25,000 in retirement
4. 21 percent of all Americans have no savings account at all
5. 43 percent of American households spend more money than they make each month
6. Middle-class Americans today make up a minority of the population. In 1971, 61 percent of all Americans lived in middle-class households
7. In the last 14 years, median income of middle-class households declined by 4 percent
8. Median wealth for middle class households dropped by an astounding 28 percent between 2001 and 2013
9. Middle class take-home pay before expenses has plummeted to just 43 percent of gross pay, compared to 1970 when the middle class took home approximately 62 percent of all income
10. There are still 900,000 fewer middle-class jobs in America than there were when the last recession began
11. According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year
So yeah, I think saving $750/mo is out of reach for a large percentage of the US population.
More Here

The above report is from 2015. What happened to Median household income in the United States from 1990 to 2019? It went up very nicely from 2015 to 2019 under you know what president (link)
(link)

Let's say you have a $100,000 portfolio. On a given trading day, the numbers show an increase in value of $500. Within that portfolio is a small position in a stock that blew up and shows a 20% ($1,000) decline for the day.
Are you generally satisfied because you had an increase of 0.5% for the day? Or are you despondent over the stock that blew up? I fall in to the latter category, but it seems illogical. Can you relate? And is there a way to make myself be more rational?

Loss aversion and overrating (overvaluation) of loss, resulting in serious, meaning behavior-altering, flinching are long-studied in investing and elsewhere, so I dunno.
There are not many ways to make ourselves anything one way or the other, ways that work and stick, although painful aversion and strong-pleasure reward do sometimes, as we all know. (Dog training, etc.)
A drink might help, sure, or meditation, or insight-oriented psychotherapy, say, as with everything else in life. Education ('rational') helps with some, being eye-opening and all that, but usually by the time we're using words like despondent, it takes a combination of experiences. And even then.

Tomorrow (September 30) Price’s 40/60 conservative balanced fund TRRIX celebrates its 18th birthday. Since inception, Lipper shows the fund averaging 6.25% - not too far from the 7% figure being batted around here. That was than this is now? Think again. Over the past 5 years the return is even better - averaging 6.47%. Lipper
My own take (based on recollections) is that 7% was pretty easily attainable for a conservative investor in the 70s thru the 90s and up until roughly 5-10 years ago when bond yields began to scrape bottom - where they remain today.
It’s hard finding anything good on the subject. Google it and you’re apt to get a bunch of investment advertisements promising to bring you remarkable returns. Sure! I’m linking an article from The Motley Fool I think does a decent job on the 7% subject. Fool

Mrs. Ruffles has a fairly small (<$7.5k) inherited IRA at Fido from which she has to take an even smaller RMD (at least in the years when they’re required). Except for the RMDs, it hasn’t been touched since she inherited it and is all in FMAGX (probably originally from the Peter Lynch era). I’d like to move it into one fund that won’t have such massive potential drawdowns. With this size, I don’t think it’s worth working with too many moving parts though I’ve put three years of RMD money into a cash equivalent.
I’ve been considering JABAX, BALFX, VLAAX which are all NTF at Fido. Any comments or other suggestions?

Not fantasyland huh? Consider these points:
1. 76 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck
2. 62 percent of Americans have less than 1,000 dollars in their savings account
3. 65 percent of those 65 and older have less than $25,000 in retirement
4. 21 percent of all Americans have no savings account at all
5. 43 percent of American households spend more money than they make each month
6. Middle-class Americans today make up a minority of the population. In 1971, 61 percent of all Americans lived in middle-class households
7. In the last 14 years, median income of middle-class households declined by 4 percent
8. Median wealth for middle class households dropped by an astounding 28 percent between 2001 and 2013
9. Middle class take-home pay before expenses has plummeted to just 43 percent of gross pay, compared to 1970 when the middle class took home approximately 62 percent of all income
10. There are still 900,000 fewer middle-class jobs in America than there were when the last recession began
11. According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year
So yeah, I think saving $750/mo is out of reach for a large percentage of the US population.
More Here

All of the quick departures are alarming. I'm babysitting some money for someone else, and part of it --- 10% of their total--- is in MAPIX. So far, its fund managers remain at the helm. I've re-read the M* analysis of the fund, dated in August. They love it. Best thing since sliced bread! Should we remain, or clear out? I'm pretty impressed by the numbers, too...

I'm not super impressed with Morningstar assessments. For example, analysts or co pms can leave funds and they somehow always seem to think that since the head/lead pm is still there, everything is fine. Quite often, its the underlings that do much of the grunt and analytics. And they never seem to hit on the qualitative stuff (why people left). But I digress.
I looked at MAPIX earlier this year. Performance had struggled a bit over the last 12 months. IIRC, the 3-year return number was below the benchmark, which shocked me. It's since recovered some, but compared to other active funds in that category, Columbia Pacific Asia (USPAX) and Fidelity Pacific Basin (FPBFX) have superior return numbers for 1, 3 and 5 year trailing. I went with FPBFX as the return numbers were better and the expense ratio was 97 bps vs MAPIX 102 bps.