Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    Heights make me dizzy. Sold off a (partial) chunk of PRPFX today (mentioned previously in the still running inflation thread). +20% YTD and +56% for 1 year. Owns companies that deal in commodities, real estate, natural resources. As such, it’s more closely tied to equity markets than is BRCAX which I also own.
    Split the $$ between TMSRX (a fund so universally disliked it can’t be too bad) and PRELX which I view as a safe (well ... safer) haven until the commodity craze settles down. By the time everybody and his brother fall in love with the commodity sector it’s probably a good time to lighten up a bit.
  • keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin
    Yes, by all means! In fact, I think people should take out a second mortgage and plow it all into
    Scheißcoin while it's still below $0.005! Tell r/WSB, this one is going to the moon! /ducks
    Should I buy now while it's still above $.50? Also, does anybody have some tulips they can sell me? Name your price.
  • keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin
    Should I buy now while it's still above $.50? Also, does anybody have some tulips they can sell me? Name your price.
  • keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin
    Screw SNL and screw Dogecoin. What a farce, both of them.
    If you want to invest, don’t discount any media - however lowly. All have the capacity to move markets in the crazy era we live in. So, turning a blind eye is not in your best interest.
    I agree that SNL hasn’t been good for more than a decade. But numerous media outlets (including CNBC) are today reporting a drop of 25-30% in Dodgcoin after Musk’s errant attempt at humor. And the rush to sell Dodgcoin was so great during the show that some popular trading platforms broke down - affecting real investors. Fake show. Fake crypto. But real money folks. Don’t know about you, but when I buy something, the seller rarely asks how I came into the cash. Lame as SNL has become, I’ll take it ahead of NBC’s Apprentice. And look at what emerged from that fake program’s cast and how it altered the course of racial, economic, social and democratic progress in this country (for the worse).
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    ha, good line, and good to remember
    Someone posted recently the decade-plus it took for breakeven from that peak (for gogo tech anyway) ... only (only) 6y+ for SP500.
    Completely OT --- can anyone explain why M* gives 4* to FXAIX and 5* to the faintly underperforming VOO?
  • How T. Rowe’s Larry Puglia Beat the S&P Over 28 Years
    >> I wonder if you took ER/fees into account... how those net results would look vs the index.
    Why on earth would you think the comparison did NOT take those into account? Seriously.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=TRBCX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    For 15y it's 12.8% vs 10.3%
    (LG is 11.2% fwiw)
    Stuck with growth and avoided the worst of drops (sounds so easy)
  • How T. Rowe’s Larry Puglia Beat the S&P Over 28 Years
    Very impressive results: “Through April 30, the $102 billion Blue Chip Growth had returned an annualized 12.2% during his tenure, versus the S&P 500’s 10.5%”
    I wonder if you took ER/fees into account... how those net results would look vs the index.
    In the story, he spoke highly of indexing. Interesting.
  • How T. Rowe’s Larry Puglia Beat the S&P Over 28 Years
    A Barron's conversation with the soon to be retired manager of TRBCX.
    Link
    Note: I'm able to access this article without a Barron's subscription.
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    PHDG is interesting for the nervous:
    https://invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=PHDG
    https://spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-500-dynamic-veqtor.pdf
    Regarding the assumption that inflation will kill the golden goose because of monetary and fiscal stimulus, one word--Japan. It could just as easily go the other way when the stimulus and "handouts"--somehow what happened last March with the Fed for the stock market wasn't handouts, but now that the money is for working people it's "handouts"--stop. We could have unemployment and deflation. But markets are overvalued either way.
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    I think it is worthwhile ensuring that in the event of a substantial bear market with drops like 2008 and a duration like 1930's you have enough cash to avoid selling at the bottom.
    It is possible that it will take five or more years for losses to recover, even after a modest bear market.
    QQQ didn't hit it 2000 peak until 2015. DJIA lost 40% in the 1930's, was up only 5% in the 1970's and many of us can remember the loss of 10% in the 2001-2010.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-performed-over-the-last-100-years-51620421855?mod=past_editions
    Having just entered retirement without a pension, I can ill afford to loose 30% of my savings nor wait ten years for it to come back.
    To answer your question, if there is a substantial drop, I might DCA back in to about 50% of where I was at the start but little more.
  • keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin
    I surely have better use of my time and not wasting electrons that are about to travel the communications path from my house to the MFO server. However, the thread is almost a SNL pre-write skit unto itself.
    I've not more time to provide right now, as I am establishing the needed trajectory web sites so that I am able to track, in real time; the fully accurate path of the incoming Chinese rocket remains this evening. Of some benefit, is that the arrive time; if the path is over Michigan, is that the night sky will be able to provide a visual observation of the debris. The longest side of our house is 91 feet, so I have this reference for the size of the debris. The current problem is that if I have an inbound visual in the night sky, what is the exact path and at 18,000 mph, would I be able to relocate with sufficient speed to avoid the impact.
    Although we use a very stable and fast broadband connection, I remain concerned about the "ping" time involved with tracing sites I will be using.
    Definition: Ping amounts of 100 ms and below are average for most broadband connections. In gaming, any amounts below a ping of 20 ms are considered exceptional and “low ping,” amounts between 50 ms and 100 ms range from very good to average, while a ping of 150 ms or more is less desirable and deemed “high ping.”Jan 29, 2020
    So, I have to find a math calculation site that will allow me to determine how to enter a visual siting distance in miles, using 18,000 mph for speed and whether ping time will affect my ability to get the hell out of the way of impact at my community or street address.
    Note: Hopefully, there will not be a "Breaking News" scroll during SNL.
    May the force or any force you choose, be with you.
    Where's Scotty when I really need him for the beam up and away??? :):):)
    Thank you for your time. I do believe I need another cup of coffee on this cold spring morning in Michigan.
    Catch
  • keep gambling ?!! Anyone buying dogecoin
    @JohnN - It’s all tied to SNL tonight.
    “The cryptocurrency dogecoin, one of Musk's favorite market playthings, has been trading higher in anticipation of the SNL appearance.” STORY
    Depends. Do you have good low latency broadband and TV reception? Are you fast on a keyboard or with a mouse? The Dogecoin market is keying on Elon Musk’s appearance on SNL tonight (Saturday). Also make sure your TV provider is low latency. Anything could happen. And you’ll be gaming with some of the smartest and best equipped gamblers as Musk either: (A) addresses / promotes Dogecoin, (B) performs a comedy skit related to Dogecoin, or (C) fails to address Dogecoin at all.
    Choice C would probably be bearish for the crypto. I’d sell. Choice B Is the trickiest, as the humor might run in either direction. And humor is always hard to judge or interpret. Your best bet is choice A - an all out endorsement (Buy!). But I’m thinking that’s unlikely as it might land him in hot water with the SEC.
    If not certain whether your keyboarding skills and equipment are up to snuff on all of this, consider selling your investment around 11:28 PM (Eastern Daylight Savings Time) - just seconds before the show airs. If you’ve ever tried betting during a sporting event telecast on “live” TV, you know the importance of low latency (real time viewing). A lot of events experience a time delay due to the time it takes the signal to make its way through the infrastructure to you. (Worst are the satellite providers like DirecTV.) Imagine betting during a fast-paced basketball game when what you’re viewing on-screen actually occurred 30 seconds earlier. A team might score 8 or 10 points during that time and you’d be oblivious to it when submitting a bet.
    Ironically, Musk’s Starlink internet is known for having very low latency due to the satellites being so close to Earth. So users of his broadband network might actually have an edge in this case. LINK
    Good luck. (Please don’t bet the ranch.)
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    I'm 71yo and have my Scheißfest plan all set. The plan is to do almost nothing.
    My AA is almost 70% equities, all in mutual funds and ETFs. I keep 5 years of expenses in my credit union savings account. I am a low spender.
    March 2020, I sold some ETFs in my taxable account where I could TLH. Anything that had gains, stayed. Within a few weeks, all that loose money was invested in new ETFs. So I'm fiddling with my taxes.
    Since I likely won't need the money in my investment accounts, it doesn't matter what they do in the near term. I'm able to weather the storm, it seems. In March 2020, the value of my portfolio went down by more than my house is assessed, and I shrugged and did something else. This was part of my written plan. In late 2019, after a great year, I restated what do when the Scheiß hit the fan. Didn't know I would have to implement it so soon.
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    I will stand pat, but in that case would hope to add a single stock, maybe two. I have my old favorites, but am also monitoring a new watch-list of stocks with already-low share prices and which would become bargain basement deals. My penchant for Canadian banks is a thing I've mentioned here often. Those "others" include:
    AQN
    IQEPF
    BDRBF*
    PBR
    BBVA*
    ENIC*
    *favorites on this list.
    Hopefully my own free cash stash will have grown enough to be useful, by the time a correction or a bear shows up.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/fed-warns-of-possible-significant-declines-in-stocks-as-valuations-climb.html
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    Question: What will you do if the market pulls back by over 20% slowly, suddenly or a combo of?
    Which funds will you sell, buy, keep for the long run etc? I saw some of my cohorts have that deer in the headlights, forlorn look during last March's market Scheisse fest. Or are you already sitting mostly on the sidelines already? I do remember some on this board like Mr Rono and others were stepping in and buying in steps which depending on how much and at what level was very likely an excellent move looking back at it.
    I'm heavy in PMEFX Penn Mutual 1847 Income. Fund mgr's have pulled back on their equity holdings and have stated they would step in with purchases if there is a market dislocation. They are former fund mgr's of BERIX Berwyn Income and over the time period there have shown the ability and willingness to do so. Kind of comfortable with FEVAX First Eagle US Value as well. Both those I would be buying...I think...maybe...
    I'm starting to formulate my strat of what stonks I would buy in a downdraft of 20-25-30% and will be placing limit orders for the HD's, JNJ's, BRK-B's, ACNs, CLs at those lower levels...
    Like they say...the time to buy an umbrella is when it is sunny out, no?
    Good Health and Good Luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Buffett vs. The Heir Apparent(s) - Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting
    Watched this years annual meeting start to finish. It was a really interesting Q & A and not because of the news about ESG and the Funds like Blackrock trying to exert influence on Berkshire to address environmental reporting concerns. Although, Munger had some pretty succinct and pithy responses to those questions.
    What struck me was how smart both Buffett and Munger are compared to the future leaders of Abel and Jain. One terrific example which struck me was the moderators question on whether BH would insure Elon and Space X trip to Mars. The immediate response from Jain was no- he’d pass. Buffett quickly followed up on Jains misstep by saying... it depends on how much the premium was and whether Musk was on the rocket. <— Just great instincts from a sage value investor- it depends on the price. Turns out, other viewers noticed the same: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-on-price-versus-value-morning-brief-095654774.html
    That’s not to say that I’m not long on Berkshire or in the least bit concerned about the future leadership - I just appreciated the dichotomy between their experience.
    View the Annual Meeting in its entirety: https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream/