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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Brokerage Rant - Schwab Acquisitions
    IMO Schwab's StreetSmart Edge is lightyears behind TDAmeritrade's ThinkDesktop - plus their Mac 'version' feels like a quirky Java-based browser plugin that's nowhere as polished as ThinkDesktop. SSE reminds me of the hideous OptionsXpress active platform that repeatedly burned me 15 years ago and what led me to ThinkorSwim.
    Until ThinkDesktop gets integrated into the Schwabverse, I'm going to grumble quietly b/c I would do all my stock/option buy/sells in that app versus the website. That said, I'm keeping some $$ at TDA both for account/record access and if I want to active trade or charting using my own indicators/scripts.
    Former Schwab executive here. Trust me, Schwab's goal is to make money: that's a fact, not a criticism. There are many ways to attract clients in order to do that, including fair pricing, responsive customer service, and a superior online experience via the website and brokerage platform. Comparing, for example, Schwab's trading platform with that of Vanguard is an apples-to-oranges, 20th vs. 21st century undertaking. (How it compares to TDA's I don't know.) I'm sure Schwab feels it has already compensated the appropriate parties for its acquisition of TDA accounts. Of course there is a certain tension between Schwab's interests and those of its customers which is why it doesn't offer all of its services for free. That's in the nature of every business. I can't think of any prior Schwab acquisition that resulted in payments to acquired customers.
  • Why rising rates isn't that bad for bonds
    I decided to post about bonds since I have been reading about this subject so many times and for several years already.
    The concept is "when rates rise, bonds are doomed".
    So let's test it based on the past. The Fed raised the federal funds rate from 12/2015 at 0.25-0.50 to 12/2018 at 2.25-2.5%, see (link)
    This looks like a pretty good possible scenario starting in 2-3 years. Let's see the effect on different fund categories from 12/31/2015 to 12/31/2018.
    Below is a total performance for 3 years.
    PIMIX (Multi sector) +18.75...PTIAX 14.3%
    VWALX(HY Muni) +10.45...OPTAX(HY Muni) 16.7%...HYD(HY Muni index) 13.3%
    MUNI (Investment grade Munis) +5.5%
    BIV (all investment grade, 50% treasuries + 50% Corp) +6.7
    VBTLX=BND (US tot bond index) +6.2%
    VCIT (investment grade Corp) 9.15%...LQD (longer duration than VCIT, investment grade Corp) 9.3%
    EIFAX (bank loan managed) 19.1%...BKLN(BL index) 10.9%
    HYG (High yield) +18.5%
    DODIX(core plus managed bond fund) +9.9%
    VWIAX (conservative allocation about 40/60) +16.3%
    So, every time you read or hear that rising rates is the end of the world please disregard it.
    Bonds have a place for many investors portfolios, especially if you want to lower volatility.
    If you don't care, whatever the reason then by all means, invest it all in stocks.
  • Politics and Investing
    Test - Here's the Link - nytimes Krugman
    Voila!! NOTE - you do need to delete the “ http://” that appears in the gizmo window.
    I would appreciate it if folk would note the source in their description. I like to know where I am going before the link opens up.
  • Politics and Investing
    Its simple: Choose the word(s) for your link- let's say you choose "Here's the Link".
    • First copy the link's actual URL address in all of it's absurdity, as you already do.:
    https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20201013&instance_id=23090&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=40840&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/54621c24-3126-5dbb-a01f-62c39cc6cc7c
    • Then type, select and highlight the phrase that's going to represent that link:
    Here's the Link
    • Now go up to the little menu bar at the top of your post, and press the little icon gizmo that's next-to-last on the menu bar.
    • A small window will appear, saying "Enter your URL"
    • Just paste your long URL in that box. You won't be able to see the whole thing, because it's a pretty small box, but that's OK.
    • Press the "OK" button on the box. That's it. It's going to look like a real mess on your screen, but just use "Prevue" to see the end product. In Prevue you can test your new link, and it should open the URL in another tab on your browser.
    Here's the Link
  • Ready For a Melt UP? Bears, It's Checkmate!
    +1 david Yes-FD1k should be worth 3-5 million, and posting from his boat in Key West. Maybe some additional info about new cars, expensive wines and his wife's dressage activities !
  • Brokerage Rant - Schwab Acquisitions
    With Vanguard creating a brokerage would that be investor owned or is only the (original) Vanguard investor owned ? Only asking to see if those still holding (original) Vanguard investors due money if sold to say Schwab
    When a company is acquired, its owners, not its customers, benefit. For example, when Adidas acquired Reebok, it was the Reebok shareholders who benefited. If you were a customer walking around in Reeboks, you didn't suddenly get some free laces.
    TD Ameritrade (formerly Ameritrade) was a publicly traded company, 40% owned by Toronto Dominion Bank. So when Schwab acquired TD Ameritrade, likewise the owners of TDAmeritrade (stock holders and TD Bank) were the ones to benefit, not the customers of the business.
    If Vanguard Brokerage Services were to be acquired by Schwab, it would be the owners of VBS to benefit. It turns out that "Vanguard Brokerage Services [is] a division of Vanguard Marketing Corporation." Vanguard Marketing Corporation in turn is "a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Vanguard Group, Inc".
    It is common knowledge (a way of saying I'm too lazy to provide a citation) that The Vanguard Group is owned by Vanguard mutual funds which in turn are owned by the Vanguard fund shareholders.
    So, if VBS were sold to Schwab, its owners, in this case Vanguard mutual fund investors, would be the ones to benefit. Not the customers of VBS, except to the extent that they were also Vanguard fund investors.
  • Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552947/000158064220003735/redwood497.htm
    497 1 redwood497.htm 497
    REDWOOD ALPHAFACTOR® TACTICAL CORE FUND
    Class N RWTNX
    Class I RWTIX
    REDWOOD ACTIVIST LEADERS® FUND
    Class N RWLNX
    Class I RWLIX
    Each Series of Two Roads Shared Trust
    Supplement dated October 13, 2020 to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    for the Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund
    each dated February 28, 2020
    The Board of Trustees of Two Roads Shared Trust (the “Trust”) has concluded, based upon the recommendation of Redwood Investment Management, LLC, that it is in the best interests of the Redwood AlphaFactor® Tactical Core Fund and the Redwood Activist Leaders® Fund (each a “Fund” and together, the “Funds”) and their respective shareholders that each Fund be liquidated. Pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) approved by the Board of Trustees, each Fund will be liquidated and dissolved on or about October 30, 2020.
    Each Fund will be closed to all new investments on October 14, 2020. On or about the close of business on October 30, 2020, each Fund will distribute pro rata all of its assets in cash to its shareholders and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled. Each Fund will not accept any new investments and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Plan for each Fund provides that the Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio as soon as is reasonable and practicable and will invest in cash or cash equivalents (such as money market funds). During this time, each Fund may hold more cash or cash equivalents than normal, which may prevent a Fund from meeting its stated investment objective. Shares of the Funds are not available for purchase.
    Prior to October 30, 2020, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section of the Funds’ Prospectus. Unless your investment in a Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, you will recognize gain or loss for federal income tax purposes (and for most state and local income tax purposes) on a redemption of your shares, whether as a result of a redemption that you initiate or upon the final liquidating distribution by a Fund, based on the difference between the amount you receive and your tax basis in your shares. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation. Plan sponsors or plan administrative agents should notify participants that a Fund is liquidating and should provide information about alternative investment options.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUNDS PRIOR TO OCTOBER 30, 2020 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    ________________________________________
    This Supplement, and the Prospectus and SAI, each dated February 28, 2020, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and the SAI have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated by reference. The Prospectus and SAI can be obtained without charge by calling 1-855-RED-FUND (733-3863).
  • M* Portf Mngr. still down
    "We are currently experiencing an issue with Portf. Manager...." At the top of the webpage. 11:30 a.m. Hawaii Time, 5:30 P.M. Eastern, Tues. 13th October.
  • U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last
    I really feel sorry for ICE Car manufacturers. They all have PLANS but no real products. I would have loved Toyota Rav4 Prime with 100 miles pure electric - but T is only planning to release 5000 for all USA with 42 miles pure electric - from a company which pioneered HYBRIDS long time ago. Reminder with all it's short comings, Tesla is going to be the next TRILLION $$$$ company.
  • Your Home is Not an Investment
    @Sven
    What is your next adventure after selling the house?
    I bought a condo in FL (Palm Beach County) a few years back. Paid $35K in 2012 which was a good time to buy. It does have an HOA (that includes Cable, water, maintenance, building insurance, pools, tennis, guard house), but taxes are 1/10th of what I was paying for the house. I own the condo free and clear.
    I have lowered my living expenses in half while multiplying almost every other aspect of my living conditions (especially nicer weather). Hot Humid Summers can last many months in South Florida so I plan on traveling during those months once travel normalizes.
  • Brokerage Rant - Schwab Acquisitions
    About 1 year ago I wrote this:
    USAA recently "sold" their Investment division to Charles Schwab for $1.8 Billion. That's $1,800,000,000 in cash. USAA will transfer $90 Billion in assets to Schwab sometime in May 2020. I asked how individual investors (there are 1 million) will benefit from this sale. I am still waiting for that answer. This latest move may not mean anything for the orphan investors who are leaving USAA for Schwab. Doesn't look like individual account holders will receive any of this $1.8B as a "bonus" for this asset transfer.
    The 1 million investors seem due some it not all of this windfall.
    Instead of sitting still and letting my assets move uncompensated I instead actively move my assets twice. Once to Merrill Edge and then again to TD Ameritrade. I received bonus transfers totaling $2,500 which neither Schwab nor USAA where willing to offer me.
    I am again facing a similar scenario at TD Ameritrade:
    Charles Schwab SCHW has concluded the acquisition of TD Ameritrade Holding for roughly $22 billion. This led to creation of a behemoth in online brokerage space with combined client assets of more than $6 trillion and serving nearly 28 million brokerage accounts.
    That's $6,000,000,000,000 AUM. The average account balance ($6T/28M accounts) is about $272K / account. TD paid me a bonus transfer of $1,500. This will not be offered to me if I sit and wait for the "acquisition transfer" to happen between TD and Schwab.
    Any good "Bonus balance transfer" offer out there?
  • Your Home is Not an Investment
    Had I rented instead of owned, my housing costs (average $1K / month over 35 years) would have been about $350K. So maybe...just maybe... "owning" (the bank owed the home most of the 35 years) my property was a break even proposition financially.
    The realtors tell the buyers the opposite. We own a simple home in a good neighborhood and schools for our kids. Not the type who wants a palace.
    What is your next adventure after selling the house?
  • Politics and Investing
    Speaking of the usual five-line monstrosities!
    How about a little class? Like maybe "Increasing Disconnect".
  • M* Portf Mngr. still down
    The markets were open (and way up) yesterday. But the banks were closed, which is why Fidelity wouldn't count yesterday as a business day for paying bills.
    Equity markets were open but bond markets were closed. That’s weird as there’d seem to be a fine line between some types of bonds (ie: C-rated corporates & convertibles ) and equities. T. Rowe showed modest changes in at least some of their bond funds nonetheless. Makes one wonder ,,, although foreign holdings might account for some change. (Possibly FVP as well).
    Here’s the story -
    “The United States bond market never officially shuts down, but it observes the holiday trading schedule recommended by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).
    Bond market holidays are not enforced, but merely recommended. However, the U.S. Treasury market has been closed for trading on Columbus Day dating back to the depression-era, so SIFMA again recommended it remained closed.
    The reason for this is more practical than historical. Columbus Day is a bank holiday. Most banks and banking institutions are closed, as is the Federal Reserve Banks in New York and Washington. Columbus Day is also a partial federal holiday with many department and services suspending operations, including the U.S. Postal Service.
    “The closing of the Fed also shuts down the Federal Reserve Wire Transfer system (Fedwire). Fedwire is the national electronic payment system to transfer funds through Federal Reserve Banks. With the Federal Reserve, the Fedwire and large money center banks all closed, the U.S. government bond market is basically forced to shut down as well. There are no bond auctions because the issuer of Federal Debt, the U.S. Treasury, is also closed.”
    LINK
    Re @Crash’s issue - It can be frustrating to have the “lights go out” on a portfolio if contemplating a buy / sell and not being able to fit all the pieces together in terms of maintaining the proper allocation. I use M* as a “backup” to a better tracker from Apple’s app-store that I pay a small fee for. Unfortunately, the paid tracker is much less reliable than the free M* tracker (but great when it works). So, I guess Morningstar’s entitled to a bad day once in a while.
  • U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last
    A 10 year global projection for deployment of additional renewable capacity for electricity:
    Solar output is expected to lead a surge in renewable power supply in the next decade, the International Energy Agency said, with renewables seen accounting for 80% of growth in global electricity generation under current conditions.
    In its annual World Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the IEA said in its central scenario - which reflects policy intentions and targets already announced - renewables are expected to overtake coal as the primary means of producing electricity by 2025.
    The combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind in global generation will rise to almost 30% in 2030 from 8% in 2019, it said, with solar PV capacity growing by an average 12% a year.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-iea-energy-renewables-idUSKBN26Y0E7
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    But if the statistic really is the biggest drop during any period of time it will not matter if you pick the last 12 months, the first six months of the year or the exact time the market crashed ( Stocks 2/19 to 3/20) Bonds (3/6 to 3/25)
  • Maximal Drawdowns
    Maybe I am missing something, but when I calculate the change in either value or NAV of most of the bond funds listed in Charles Bolin's Seeking Alpha article I get far higher drops then the MFO statistics show.
    Example VCOBX, MFO lists a DD over last year or during Covid crash of minus 0.8, but the NAV dropped from $21.48 (3/6/2020) to $20.20 ( 3/19), a drop of 6%
    There were no dividends paid during this time, and even adding back in a proportion of the dividend of $0.04430 paid 3/31, you still get a drop of 5.8%.
    Even the drop on a monthly basis for March is 0.8%.
    Morningstar listed the Maximum Drawdown over all time periods as 2.7% from 2017 to 2018.
    The definition of Maximal Drawdown MFO uses is " The percentage of greatest reduction in fund value below its previous maximum over period evaluated".
  • U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last
    U.S. Wind and Solar Installations-Trend May Not Last-I doubt that. Trillion $ companies are trying to become carbon neutral in 15-20 years. They don't rely on subsidies. Electric cars for the masses (Million Mile Battery) & new kid on the block Hydrogen - will be another one to watch for.
    Don't sink too much into lithium. Or batteries. Or Tesla.
    https://www.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html
  • U.S. Wind and Solar Installations Are Smashing Records, but the Trend May Not Last
    @WABAC PNW is expanding it solar footprint. But, yes, Arizona regulators appear to be committed to centralized projects. Per M*'s writeup on PNW:
    They certainly used to spend enough money to elect the regulators they wanted.
    We shall see what the Arizona Corporate Commission looks like after this election.
    We get our power from SRP, which is "government owned."