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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    @BenWP, interesting observation on EM. For now I stay put and watch the treasury yield as it is settling down this week. Read earlier that 10 years treasury will reach much higher than 1.5% by year end if inflation is rising. Nevertheless I am just watching ARK etfs. Have you considering the more value oriented EM funds instead of the growth type? They have been very volatile lately.
    @catch22, no bitcoins here as I don't understand the risk and reward aspect enough.
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    I used the word "averaging" and found various posts, but did find comments from OS about dollar cost averaging back into 2018. I didn't proceed from that point as I don't know what exactly you are looking for. I didn't have to travel but about 5 pages to begin to rind OS. I'm sure there are more from him going farther back, but am short of time today.
    NOTE: this is when using the "search" box at this site.
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    @carew338 & @Old_Joe : I think I found what I was looking for on DCA. Only the comments were for a falling market & I was wondering what the options were for a rising market.
    About 4 months ago I took about 8% of portfolio value & put 2 % in 4 different fund.
    I sold S&P out with a little over 5 % profit & now hold 3 value funds , small, mid, & large.
    Question now ,do I want to add to all three or just let them ride? If small value is leading the parade by a good bit, maybe just adding to mid & large would be the way to go.
    Anybody care to comment, Derf
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    Hi @Derf. OK, I tried the following approach:
    • Entered the following as the URL:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/profile/Old_Skeet
    That takes you to Old_Skeets profile page. <<< Use this link, if you want to.
    • On his profile page, upper left corner, choose "Comments"-
    (That will take you to a page listing comments made by Old_Skeet. Evidently he has made 3,165 comments, but you will only see one page of the latest.)
    • That listing can be expanded by clicking on "More Comments" at the lower right of the listing page. I did this a number of times, until I had a list that went all the way back to January 2020.
    • Once you have that list, then use the standard "Command F" key combination on your computer. That should bring up a "Find" box which will look at all of the text showing in Skeet's comments.
    I tried "DCA" in that box, no results to speak of. Then tried "Dollar"- again, a few hits but nothing about DCA.
    Not sure how else to find what you're looking for.
    OJ
  • The Teal Book
    Stacey Tevlin is the most important person in U.S. economics that you have probably never heard of. She leads a team of 357 people in the Federal Reserve’s Research and Statistics division, which is entrusted with the forecasts for policy makers as they weigh interest rates every six weeks.
    Her work appears in a document called the Teal Book, which is kept confidential for five years. She doesn’t go on television, give speeches, or even talk to reporters very often. Yet her team’s work has so much influence on the policy debate that one former Fed governor calls the staff forecast “the 13th member” of the Federal Open Market Committee.
    keeper-of-secret-teal-book-lifts-veil-on-new-forecast-era
  • Blast from the past "Old_Skeet" Low rate environment
    This leaves 15% of my cash in low to no yield places such as money market mutal funds and cash savings. My highest paying money market mutual fund PCOXX has paid out a measley yield of 0.53%. Carry this out and for the full years it projects to a yield of less than one percent.
    With this, I ponder ... What to do in my quest for better returns with some of my cash as it builds?
    Option 1) Sit tight and build cash while I await the next stock market dip (or pull back) where I can put an equity special investment position (spiff) into play. Generally, in the past, I'd look to make at least five percent off my spiffs when engaged. For me, this will work.
    Option 2) I can buy more of my commodity strategy fund (BCSAX) which has a yield of better than 2% and as inflation rises usually the price of commodities rise. This fund holds some gold and gold mining stocks as well. It should do well if the US Dollar continues to decline and the price of commodities rise. For me, this will work.
    Option 3) I can buy more of my real estate income fund (FRINX). As the US Dollar declines generally real estate values increase plus long term this would act as a hedge against inflation. Woops already have a full allocation to real estate and high yield securites. No go here.
    Option 4) Buy more of my convertible (FISCX) and preffered (PFANX) securities funds. Hold up ... already have a full allocation there.
    Option 5) Buy more in my asset allocation funds and let my fund managers find opportunity. This would also work because it would spread the funds's asset mix among those I'm already invested in thus maintaining my asset allocation. Two funds that I'm thinking of are CFIAX & INPAX.
    So, for me, going forward, over the near term, it looks like my better choices are numbers 1, 2, & 5 of the options I covered.
    I am also wondering what you might have thought of and where you might be positioning new money in this low yield environment?
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    I am ... Old_Skeet
    Stay Safe , Derf
  • Small Cap Value
    RE: US News Rankings...
    You really don't need to go any further than looking at their #1 ranked SCV fund, DFFVX.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=DFFVX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    How is a M* 3* fund that ranked in its SCV category
    2011-YTD
    72-23-10-65-46-40-40-55-52-45-24
    even REMOTELY regarded as Best in Class?
    Seriously, ONCE in the Top Ten percentile in 11 years, and it's magically the #1 ranked SCV fund?
    This is NOT a one-off comparison. I've made these comparisons for YEARS with their rankings and I've NEVER been able to justify any more than a glance at them.
    Kind of reminds me of some of the old stock "Supervised Lists" from back in the 80's, some of which required the company to fund the inclusion of their stock on the list, if you get my drift.
  • Small Cap Value
    Here is US News' rankings of small cap value funds:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/small-value
    BRSIX is #2
    BRSVX is #5
    RYPNX is #6
    QRSVX is #14
    NSMVX is #21
    PZISX is #29
    PVFIX is #36
    RYSEX is #38
    LSVQX is #39
    NSDVX is #48
    THBVX is considered a small blend fund based on this (which I also own):
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=THBVX&region=usa&culture=en_US
    PVIVX is a small blend fund also based on this:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=pvivx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    ASVIX is a small cap value fund based on this:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=asvix&region=usa&culture=en_US
  • SEARCH QUESTION
    @catch22 : 4 or 5 pages provided these ; midcap-broadcast-wildcard- childcare- smidcap-Fidca !!!!! Do you see where I'm coming from ?
    Have a good day , Derf
  • 10 High-Yield ETFs for Income-Minded Investors
    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/etfs/602375/high-yield-etfs-for-income-investors
    *10 High-Yield ETFs for Income-Minded Investors
    These high-yield ETFs show that there's no shortage of ways to balance risk and reward in the quest for better-than-average income.*
    -SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD,)
    -Invesco KBW High Dividend Yield Financial ETF (KBWD)
    -Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ,)
    _Global X SuperDividend REIT ETF (SRET)
    - iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC)
    -Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP)
    -Amplify High Income ETF (YYY)
    -iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY)
    -Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond (vwob)
    -Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD)
    We have couple of these
    Real estates / energy and bank sector are doing quite well posted c19
    Will look more at YYY (carefully) and vwib, may get vwib
  • William Bernstein at Morningstar
    Going oppo here...
    Seems that Steve Romick, FPA has had a great investing career...has outperformed the SP500 and VWELX with less drawdown over his tenure
    Who else has had the staying power and adaptability to roll with the times??
    Baseball Fan
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    When you cannot beat them, maybe reasonable to join them/ add small amounts at a time. Don't bet the whole house but just *play money* like going Vegas
    Our bitcoin GBTC holding comprise ~ 0.0005% of portfolio. You may expect loose the whole house on Bitcoin.
  • William Bernstein at Morningstar
    I think Tillinghast must have great PR people - he has been flamed out.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FLPSX,IVOO,vo
    uh, perhaps you have not kept up; compare FLPSX vs VOE and MCV index 1-2-3-4-5y
    (not sure those are the fairest comparisons, but whatever)
    plus you get usually a good slug of foreign stocks
  • William Bernstein at Morningstar
    Fund managers can typically only beat the indices over the short-term, as the law of averages catches up. Sometimes a PM gets hot....and then later on, not so hot....
    Ken Heebner at CGM was briefly a god in the 1990s.
    Bill Gross was the bond king for a while. Is Mohamed El-Erian still all that?
    Rob Arnot (Pimco All Asset Authority)
    Jeffrey Vinik did ok (Fido Magellan/hedge funds)- but he cashed out in 2000.
    Bill Miller - mentioned by OP
    Bruce Berkowitz - Fairholme Fund
    Dodge & Cox fund family (still respected by many)
    Personally, I think the odds are high that Cathie Wood's ARK will flame out.
    https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/more-evidence-that-its-really-hard-to-beat-the-market-over-time-95-of-finance-professionals-cant-do-it/
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    So, I’ve been watching Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news like many have over the last year or two. I’ve been encouraged to invest in it ... when it was in the $1,000-1500 price range. I dismissed the advice and thought it was a fad. I watched it gyrate between 1500 to 20,000 to 50,0000 and back to 35,000 and below.
    Each time... I referred to the volatility as a reason to justify avoiding it as an investment.
    But in the last 6-8 months, I’ve watched companies like Microstrategy and Tesla and Insurance companies decide to invest ALOT of capital (Billions!) in this digital currency that is currently unregulated. That lack of regulation is what draws investment by the uneducated but it’s also what worries me the most. Elon and Michael et al are saying that parking cash in Bitcoin is smarter than and more appreciative than watching their cash lose value in the bank due to inflation.
    That said, it did not stop me from investing a whole $50.00 into Bitcoin. Not Bitcoin Cash but Bitcoin. More on that distinction later.
    My chosen platform for this experiment? The PayPal app - where you can buy as little as $1.00 of Bitcoin. It’s likely not as efficient as a platform like eToro or Coinbase. My first $50.00 purchase of Bitcoin was at the beginning of the year. I have DCA into it and as of today- it’s at an all time high. I fully expect it will drop 50% or more in the next 6 months. I’ll provide exact details of my total investment in the near future.
    Purpose of this thread? A cryptocurrency experiment. Can I / We use the volatility of Bitcoin and “market timing” and crypto to make money? Of course, the risk is that while I’m experimenting...it becomes a legitimate gold alternative— a better place to park cash as Elon and Michael Saylor are saying. If adoption continues to rise (and it IS)... I may regret not accelerating the investment. The opposite can happen too. It could crash as it has done previously... but can I or We trade in and out and make money? Can you?
    Would appreciate replies that include stories or links promoting or detracting from the crypto conversation. I think it’s a worthy subject or topic for the investing community to monitor and evaluate. In full disclosure, I’m highly skeptical of crypto and generally conservative.
    YTD... my return is +15% in Bitcoin. I’ll share specific details on total investment in a future post. At the moment, 1 Bitcoin is worth $55,500.00 Thoughts?
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    @davidmoran I’m more comfortable with mutual funds - it’s what I know. That said, there are times I wished I could buy and sell my funds a bit quicker vs. 2 day turn around for 2 different fund family exchange . Not that I do that much. But... anyway. Perhaps that will change in the future?!?!
    I really like FBALX - I’m with @catch22 there.
    I don’t currently own any ETFs but I do own some Bitcoin which is up 15% YTD. I’m going to start a thread on the topic.
    It’s good to be a skeptic but it’s also good to be open minded to new things.
  • William Bernstein at Morningstar
    Great discussion! https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1028671/bill-bernstein-were-starting-to-see-all-of-the-signs-of-a-bubble
    Here’s a clip”
    Benz: Earlier on when we were discussing the whole bubble phenomenon, you referenced the entry of a star manager or star funds as being a characteristic of the bubble. So, I wanted to talk about the ETF, ARK Innovation, which has grabbed headlines and investor dollars over the past year. It's recently hit a rough patch of performance. What's your take on that fund?
    Bernstein: Ah,here's where the parlor game comes in. And then I'll get to it when we're done with the parlor game, which is there's three of us here, and I'm going to start off with what puts me at a disadvantage, by naming a historical star manager, who was an absolute superstar who then planted their face, and then you each have to go and name your own. The last person standing is the one who wins. So, I'm going to start with the easiest one, which is Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust--readers who aren't familiar with him--know beat the S&P 500 not just over 15 years, but for 15 straight years, every single year. And people thought that he was the financial fountain of youth. And then, he lost it all within the next three years after that. That's my entrant.
    Rbrt
  • Small Cap Value
    Agreed, VSCIX is a great, SCB Index fund. Pretty steep min at $5M though. If interested, try VSMAX Admiral shares at $3K min.