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keeper-of-secret-teal-book-lifts-veil-on-new-forecast-eraStacey Tevlin is the most important person in U.S. economics that you have probably never heard of. She leads a team of 357 people in the Federal Reserve’s Research and Statistics division, which is entrusted with the forecasts for policy makers as they weigh interest rates every six weeks.
Her work appears in a document called the Teal Book, which is kept confidential for five years. She doesn’t go on television, give speeches, or even talk to reporters very often. Yet her team’s work has so much influence on the policy debate that one former Fed governor calls the staff forecast “the 13th member” of the Federal Open Market Committee.
uh, perhaps you have not kept up; compare FLPSX vs VOE and MCV index 1-2-3-4-5yI think Tillinghast must have great PR people - he has been flamed out.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FLPSX,IVOO,vo
RbrtBenz: Earlier on when we were discussing the whole bubble phenomenon, you referenced the entry of a star manager or star funds as being a characteristic of the bubble. So, I wanted to talk about the ETF, ARK Innovation, which has grabbed headlines and investor dollars over the past year. It's recently hit a rough patch of performance. What's your take on that fund?
Bernstein: Ah,here's where the parlor game comes in. And then I'll get to it when we're done with the parlor game, which is there's three of us here, and I'm going to start off with what puts me at a disadvantage, by naming a historical star manager, who was an absolute superstar who then planted their face, and then you each have to go and name your own. The last person standing is the one who wins. So, I'm going to start with the easiest one, which is Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust--readers who aren't familiar with him--know beat the S&P 500 not just over 15 years, but for 15 straight years, every single year. And people thought that he was the financial fountain of youth. And then, he lost it all within the next three years after that. That's my entrant.
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