Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • nibbling away
    @Derf, What would your fund selection be to play (the rebound) after a stock market swoon?
    I'm thinking of using IALAX for my next spiff. And, AMCPX for an equity ballast position.
    To do this, I'm planning to open a new possition in ITAAX and pay the commission of 2.5%. When the stock market pulls back then on the rebound I can open my spiff position by doing a nav transfer into IALAX commission free. For equity ballast, I'll use AMCPX by doing a nav transfer from some of the currently owned MIAQX.
    Just wondering what your "preplanned" pick(s) might be?
  • S&P 500 fights for best 5-month stretch since 1938 as Apple, Tesla split
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-aug-31-2020
    S&P 500 fights for best 5-month stretch since 1938 as Apple, Tesla split
    U.S. equity markets were little changed on Monday and on track to wrap up their best month since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 52 points, or 0.18%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were higher by 0.01% and 0.16%, respectively. All three of the major averages look to be on track for a fifth straight month of gains and are looking at their best five-month stretch in years
    We are +7.4% YTD...glad did not pull out completely in March 20
    Will trend continue at end summer/fall, nobody know
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread

    Bought a slug of Ontrak, Inc. 9.50% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock at 24.85 (par $25) as it became available for trading.
  • nibbling away
    Simon would you care to share what funds you have that are up 65% ytd ?!
    Check out this link for top 20 fund performance.
    https://www.financial-planning.com/slideshow/best-mutual-funds-and-etfs-ranked-by-ytd-returns
    Have a nice day, Derf
    That is a peculiar list.
    M* quickrank shows a number of funds greater than 65%. A lot of the funds look like multiple share classes of the same product.
  • nibbling away
    Hi @Derf my top year-to-date performers, with better than a 20% return, through 8/28 are SPECX +33.16% ... AOFAX +29.82 ... FISCX +27.24 ... AGTHX +22.86 ... and, CTFAX +22.25%. Overall (year to date) I'm up about 4.3% with a portfolio yield of about 3.3%. So, I am now currently north of my yield.
  • nibbling away
    Simon would you care to share what funds you have that are up 65% ytd ?!
    Check out this link for top 20 fund performance.
    https://www.financial-planning.com/slideshow/best-mutual-funds-and-etfs-ranked-by-ytd-returns
    Have a nice day, Derf
  • nibbling away
    @Simon @WABAC I'm not COMPLETELY in bonds (for protection) only because of the Fed stimulus. It does matter just what is driving markets, whether up or down. Central Banks have come to the rescue--- AGAIN. @rono likes to say: "This will not end well." I agree. In the meantime, this is still the only game in town. The next item that I'm required by law to do is to begin taking RMDs at age 72. (Yes, the change, due to covid distress. ) In January, I pulled out a pre-determined chunk at a pre-determined time. Almost all my stuff is in Trad IRAs. I was lucky. We were at or near a Market-top back then. Since then, Mr. Market has been kind--- thanks to The Fed. When the punchbowl gets pulled, I might just move from 57% bonds to 80% bonds. The payouts from my bond funds are tasty, right on schedule, too. I've learned not to boast about portfolio results. I'll just be paying attention. Chugging along. My portf. is comprised of my best fund choices, up to the present. I sleep well.
    Anyone at, or close to RMD's is in a different situation than Simon, our young accumulator.
    I had re-balanced the IRA last December - January so that I was close to 60-40 stocks/bonds, not counting cash. I'm back to 70-30 on the Biden rally and purchases made in March. And I think I'll let it ride. I still have a little nubbin of cash if there is another serious downdraft.
    Bernard Baruch is supposed to have said that he made all his money selling too soon. Disciplined selling is one sure way to have cash on hand for those buying opportunities.
    I sort of regret selling NASDX to put into really boring stuff. But that's the sort of calculus to make with retirement funds if you're going to need them sooner than later.
  • Tech, Tesla stocks help women fund managers outperform male counterparts in 2020
    “Female fund managers, who remain woefully under-represented in the US Mutual Fund industry, have done a better job picking stocks than their male counterparts in 2020, Bloomberg reported. According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group, among 500 large-cap US mutual funds, those with at least one-third manager posts held by women have exceeded those with no women by 1 percentage point this year.” STORY
  • nibbling away
    @Simon @WABAC I'm not COMPLETELY in bonds (for protection) only because of the Fed stimulus. It does matter just what is driving markets, whether up or down. Central Banks have come to the rescue--- AGAIN. @rono likes to say: "This will not end well." I agree. In the meantime, this is still the only game in town. The next item that I'm required by law to do is to begin taking RMDs at age 72. (Yes, the change, due to covid distress. ) In January, I pulled out a pre-determined chunk at a pre-determined time. Almost all my stuff is in Trad IRAs. I was lucky. We were at or near a Market-top back then. Since then, Mr. Market has been kind--- thanks to The Fed. When the punchbowl gets pulled, I might just move from 57% bonds to 80% bonds. The payouts from my bond funds are tasty, right on schedule, too. I've learned not to boast about portfolio results. I'll just be paying attention. Chugging along. My portf. is comprised of my best fund choices, up to the present. I sleep well.
  • nibbling away
    So how's the Great Bear Market for you guys who sold at the bottom? How's it all going?
    I told you 6 months ago we were not in a bear market by any metric or measure. But none of you listened and your kneejerk reaction was to sell quality assets for no reason. Some supposedly experienced investors here were in complete denial and expressed shock at my comments that this ongoing bull will last until the 2030s.
    Meanwhile my mutual fund retirement portfolio is up over 65% since January 1st. That's definitely a bull market....isn't it?
    You old-timers really need to be more humble, consider the opinions of others, and learn from your mistakes.
    I haven't sold anything since rebalancing in January. That put me in a position to buy in March.
    Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if we were all humble, listened to others, and learned from our mistakes?
    Now. Where do you think the market would be if The Fed had not injected trillions of dollars into it?
    What you call a bull market looks like a speed freak to me. Now is the time to think about selling.
  • nibbling away
    So how's the Great Bear Market for you guys who sold at the bottom? How's it all going?
    I told you 6 months ago we were not in a bear market by any metric or measure. But none of you listened and your kneejerk reaction was to sell quality assets for no reason. Some supposedly experienced investors here were in complete denial and expressed shock at my comments that this ongoing bull will last until the 2030s.
    Meanwhile my mutual fund retirement portfolio is up over 65% since January 1st. That's definitely a bull market....isn't it?
    You old-timers really need to be more humble, consider the opinions of others, and learn from your mistakes.
  • Your take on TRECX?
    Unfortunately, I'm a piker, so I'll start with $500 at Schwab and see how that does.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi @Derf,
    My money flow indicator moved from a reading of 52 to 88 this week. As money returned the price of the Index moved upward from 3397 to 3508 for a nice gain of 3.26% with the heavy lifting coming, this past week, mostly from the underlying stocks. At last weeks close there were 66% of the stocks within the S&P 500 Index trading above their 50 day moving average and this week there were 82% as we closed the week. Still as you point out the Big Ten stocks account for about 26% of the Index's valuation as the S&P 500 Index is cap weighted. Should the Big Ten begin to falter ... well, I'm thinking that the underlying will follow. In addition, I'm thinking, the stocks that gained the most will loose the most as investors cut and run booking profits. I'm thinking there are some strong profits to be had with the price runup especially coming from the Big Ten.
    In short answer to your question. The barometer is already tuned as it follows breadth (number of stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages and the direction of money flow. A narrow breadth condition is of good concern as well as a outward trend in money flow. With the Big Ten having about a 26% weighting in the Index they have a great deal of influence in the barometer's reading.
    Perhaps, the Democrat and Republican conventions had some influence on the markets over the past couple of weeks. After all, elections are coming and things are beginning to heat up. Will the market melt? Possibly.
    With this, I'm staying within the confines of my "all weather" asset allocation of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) + or - 5%. If stocks continue in the updraft I've got plenty of equities invested to enjoy the upward ride; and, if the downdraft comes I've got plenty of cash to do some equity buying. In addition, my portfolio generates a good income stream. So, for now I sit ... and, I await to see how this plays out.
    Derf, your SWAG is probally as good as mine.
  • Your take on TRECX?
    Yeah - I’ve pondered taking a small spec on it. It was hot in 2019 so I’m guessing it won’t do much for a while yet just looking at its history on Yahoo’s great site. I’m in no hurry to add one more to the “fund collection”.
    Minimums? If directly at TRP It’s still a low $1,000 for IRAs ($2500 regular accounts).
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi guys ...
    This past week was a strong week for the S&P 500 Index moving from 3397 to 3506 for a weekly gain of 3.26%. The barometer moved from a reading of 125 to 110 on it's near term scale indicating that, according to the matrix of the barometer, the Index is extremely ovebought.
    For me, since I am fully invested within my asset allocation I am presently building cash while I await a better equity buying opportunity. I have thought of adding to my commodity strategy fund but thus far have not. For now I sit.
    Have a good week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Your take on TRECX?
    T Rowe Price Emerging Markets Corporate Bond (TRECX)
    Just noticed this one in their stable. Bit of a mystery. While they seek “high current income”, the average maturity is in excess of 5 years - not exactly a “safe” or low volatility bond fund. I do like that Lipper has it ranked near the top of the stack and M* gives it 5 stars. I haven’t had time to read the prospectus, but my guess is they hedge quite a bit against currency flux with this one. Wonder how it compares to their PREMX (hedged) and PRELX unhedged EM bond funds. It’s currently in a funk, which appears to happen in roughly alternating 1-2 year periods.
  • The So-Called 'Buffett Indicator' Hits All-Time High
    I'll add to this that a large proportion of revenue in the S&P 500 comes from overseas.
    One will occasionally come across the argument (not saying I buy it, BTW) that there is little reason to have a heavy concentration in international stocks, since so much of the S&P500's revenues derive directly and indirectly from overseas markets.
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    Thanks Catch. Based on my few bond holdings, the mid-grade (AA/BBB) corporate stuff a bit out on the curve (5+ years) got whacked a bit due to uptick in rates. Shorter term stuff (1-3 years) seemed to hold up better. Foreign (investment grade) bonds held up better. Perhaps the dollar fell some more. The good news is, as bond prices fall yields usually rise. Leon Cooperman, whom I posted last week, calls bonds today “return free risk.” But as for risk ... it’s more than just bonds IMHO.
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    Last week's title was:
    bonds found some "lovers" this past week
    This week, well; the "love" is a bit on the edge. A bit twitchy in some sectors, overpriced perhaps; not unlike sectors in equity. Whata-ya-gonna-do ???
    In the "old days" one could have at least a small amount of assurance, that if the equity markets started or were going to hell in a hand basket; that quality bond holdings would likely be a positive ballast for one's portfolio. The machinations of central banks right now is so fully overwhelming in all aspects of capital markets that I find it more difficult with how to deal with the "perversion" of reality markets. This week's "Jackson Hole" conference placed some guidance by Chairman Powell. What you or the "pundits" make of the pronouncements likely finds a large range of where the equity/bond markets travel in the future. The past 3 weeks of data in this thread show the amount of volatility within some bond sectors.
    A few blips below, that may or may not be of value:
    --- EXPLAINER, new Fed policy
    --- Fed can't talk the U.S. economy into inflation
    Lastly, if you remain curious about bonds; you have a defined list of etf's below to help you gauge which areas are having momentum; either positive or negative.
    I'm going HIATUS with further posting.
    I should have previously included performance for AGG, as a gauge, which is now included in the below list.
    The AGG, formerly known as the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, is an index used by bond traders, mutual funds, and ETFs as a benchmark to measure their relative performance. The index is broadly considered to be the best total market bond index, as it is used by more than 90% of investors in the United States.
    Currently, I glance at data for , but do not track muni's, mortgage or foreign bonds.
    A few data views from bondland, for mostly AAA rated bonds:

    AUGUST 28 WEEK / YTD .....Data M* performance

    --- AGG = -.48% / +6.6% (widely used bond benchmark)
    --- MINT = + .06% / +1.29% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = + .02% / +2.98% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = - .07% /+7% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.61% /+11% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.29% / +9% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = -.7% / +21.1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = -3.1% /+20.1% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -4% / +26.3% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -4.4 /+27.4% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = +.5 / -.2% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -1.1% / +7.3% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Well, enjoy and be careful.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • IOFIX/IOAFX Distributions
    Here are a couple of earlier Section 19a docs for the fund: March and April. There may be others.
    As @Vegomatic posted in another thread, sometimes these interim classifications of distributions change before getting to the official 1099-DIV.
    That said, I noticed that 97% of IOFIX's securities are floating rate. Years ago, I owned a fund that invested in agency ARMs. Almost a quarter of the distributions I received that year was ROC. There may be something inherent in these securities that creates ROC. Just an observation, I'm not digging into it.
    The ROC shows up on your 1099-DIV in Box 3 (nondividend distributions). This is pretty basic, and not uncommon for closed end fund with managed distributions. So all tax software should handle it.
    There is a quirk with ROC. As noted, this reduces your cost basis. If your cost basis drops to zero, any additional ROC is treated as capital gains.
    https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc404
    If your shares are "covered" Schwab is required to keep track of your cost basis. I believe that it is required to incorporate the effect of return of capital when reporting your cost basis (i.e. it should track this correctly). However, the ultimate responsibility for keeping track is yours, regardless of what Schwab reports.