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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SP500 $VIX vs Nasdaq 100 $VXN
    This morning, SP500 VIX 33.78 is again slightly higher than Nasdaq-100 VXN 33.34.
    Oil OVX 64.37.
    To get approximate DAILY volatilities, use value/19.
  • March 2022 commentary is live now
    Also ANZAX min is $2,500
    That is at Fido. BTW, Fido has eliminated min for many of its own funds.
    Schwab no-load/NTF min for MOST funds is $100 (sometimes even $1) including for ANZAX.
  • Vanguard changes expense ratios on equity fund, bond funds & ETFs
    Most of these are pretty mundane: a basis point or two one way or the other (decrease or increase), but a few of the reductions are impressive, up to 6 basis points.
    The very last fund on the list though is VASFX, where the ER jumped by 1/2%, from 0.78% to 1.28%!
    A closer look reveals that the management fee dropped (from 0.25% to 0.22%) while other expenses rose (from 0.05% to 0.08%) - net zero. The big change comes from shorting expenses.
    Dividend expenses on shorts dropped from 0.44% to 0.37%, while
    Borrowing expenses on shorts rose from 0.00% to 0.56%
    That suggests that the fund may have moved to shorting less liquid (harder to borrow), non-dividend paying stocks. Small caps?
    I haven't looked at changes in the fund's short positions over time, so this is just a guess.
  • Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, attacked and on fire
    This link will provide current updated information. The live feed will be periodically "moved". Notification will be on this page link "in red", such as "has moved to". You'll likely know a new feed page exists when the time frame at the news feed is quite old....time stamp or is the same story you saw previously.
    Futures indices here......, not happy; at this time....11 pm, EST
    ALL indices RED, 9AM, Friday, March 4......except VIX, of course.
  • The 10 stock and bond funds with the biggest Russia exposure
    Among the fund families, Capital Group (American Funds) had/has most Russia exposure.
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-investment-manager-capital-group-was-among-top-exposed-russia-data-2022-03-02/
    "NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) - Capital Group Companies Inc, one of the world's largest investment management companies, known for its American Funds mutual funds, had billions in exposure to Russian companies that have been either sanctioned or curbed by the United States over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the latest data on the fund's website.....The Los Angeles-based firm, which has over $2.4 trillion in assets under management, according to its website, had $4.55 billion in exposure across its American Funds franchise to Gazprom , Sberbank (SBMX.MM), Alrosa (ALRS.MM) and Sovkomflot (FLOT.MM) as of Dec 31.....Separate data from research firm Morningstar, analyzed by Reuters, showed that Capital Group had at least $8.19 billion in exposure to Russia in its equity and fixed income funds according to latest available data. The data was on the top 100 open-end funds and ETFs worldwide....."
  • Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, attacked and on fire
    ADD: 9:30 pm EST
    Nuclear experts: Disaster depends on where the fire is taking place
    As a fire reported by Ukrainian officials continues at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, nuclear experts answered some of the most urgent questions:
    Are there systems in the plant that can automatically fight the fire? Yes, but they don't fight all fires, said nuclear policy expert and Harvard professor Graham Allison. And not all fires at a power plant can have "catastrophic consequences." It depends on where the fire is — the biggest concern is if the blaze reaches a reactor's cooling pits, which could cause a meltdown of the reactor.
    What could happen if a reactor melts down? If a fire, missile strike or other type of attack disrupts the nuclear reactor's cooling structure, it won't be able to cool itself — causing the fuel inside to overheat and melt down, releasing large amounts of radioactivity, said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
    The most recent and severe examples include the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, and the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in Soviet Ukraine.
    How likely is this? It's hard to say because there's still much we don't know, several experts agreed — most importantly, where the fire is located, whether it's even near the reactors or in a different part of the nuclear power complex, whether all the reactors are working — all things that could influence the severity of a disaster, if one occurs.
    Why is the power plant coming under attack? Russian troops appear to be trying to seal off a nearby river and encircle Ukrainian forces, a classic maneuver, said retired US Army Gen. Wesley Clark — and the power plant is "right in the way." The plant is also a "key strategic asset," providing much of Ukraine's power, he added: "Take that offline, the grid is at least temporarily destabilized. You're cutting the ability of Ukrainians to be able to handle communications to a lot of other things."
  • March 2022 commentary is live now
    Min Initial Investment1,000,000 ANNPX
    R U kidding me !
  • To dip or not ?
    Hi Derf,
    With about 22 holdings (mainly funds) I’ve more than enough. Only own 3 stocks: RIO, Y, WPM. The first 2 are pretty conservative companies with strong balance sheets. As far as I know, so is the third. So I sleep well and pay little heed to them.
    On the contrary, both ARKK and DKNG resemble “loose & loaded cannons” ready to fire in any direction at any moment. I suspect a lot of $$ will be made in them - but lack the patience to own either. They’d also be fun to trade in and out of - grabbing off quick 5-10% gains every few weeks. Of course, there’s no guarantee. I’ll leave it to the younger ones here to mess with them. Thrills and chills …
    Not much dipping here. In fact, I’ve placed a sign over the portfolio tracker keyboard reading “Do Not Touch“ - just to make sure I don’t mess with anything. :)
    Thanks for the interesting thread!
  • Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inception and Discovery Portfolios to re-open
    May be by March 15 these fund prices will bottom. The funds' prices are down 7+% today. They do not seem to make distributions in March.
  • To dip or not ?
    I’ll toss out a couple appetizing candidates if anyone is inclined to take a dunking. ARKK is off 48.9% year over year and down a bit over 4% today. DKNG must be off something like 70% year over year and is a couple bucks over it’s recent bottom at around $21.00 - off 8% today. Re the latter, I developed dizziness trying to hang on to it and sold out few weeks back. The water sure looks tempting now. But I’ve too many irons in the fire. Somebody else will need to take the swim.
  • Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inception and Discovery Portfolios to re-open
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836487/000110465922029777/a22-8099_3497.htm
    497 1 a22-8099_3497.htm 497
    Prospectus Supplement
    March 3, 2022
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
    Supplement dated March 3, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Prospectus dated April 30, 2021
    Growth Portfolio
    Inception Portfolio
    (the "Funds")
    Effective March 15, 2022, the Funds will recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares. Accordingly, effective March 15, 2022, the Funds' Prospectus is revised as follows:
    The second paragraph of the section of the Prospectus entitled "Fund Summary—Inception Portfolio—Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares" is hereby deleted.
    The second paragraph of the section of the Prospectus entitled "Shareholder Information—Share Class Arrangements" is hereby deleted.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    Prospectus Supplement
    March 3, 2022
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
    Supplement dated March 3, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Prospectus dated April 30, 2021
    Growth Portfolio (Class IR) (the "Fund")
    Effective March 15, 2022, the Fund will recommence offering Class IR shares.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    Statement of Additional Information Supplement
    March 3, 2022
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
    Supplement dated March 3, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. (the "Company") Statement of Additional Information dated April 30, 2021
    Growth Portfolio
    Inception Portfolio
    (the "Funds")
    Effective March 15, 2022, the Funds will recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS and the Growth Portfolio will recommence offering Class IR shares. Accordingly, effective March 15, 2022, the Fund' Statement of Additional Information is revised as follows:
    The third footnote following the table on the cover page of the Statement of Additional Information listing the Company's current funds is hereby deleted.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/741375/000110465922029774/a22-8099_1497.htm
    497 1 a22-8099_1497.htm 497
    Summary Prospectus and
    Prospectus Supplement
    March 3, 2022
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund Trust
    Supplement dated March 3, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund Trust
    Summary Prospectus and Prospectus dated January 28, 2022
    Discovery Portfolio (the "Fund")
    Effective March 15, 2022, the Fund will recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    Statement of Additional Information Supplement
    March 3, 2022
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund Trust
    Supplement dated March 3, 2022 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund Trust
    Statement of Additional Information dated January 28, 2022
    Discovery Portfolio (the "Fund")
    Effective March 15, 2022, the Fund will recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • CEF funds
    It is always said that CEFs do not have to deal with outflows forcing them to sell into a declining market. That is true but i have never seen a study comparing OEF and CEFs on this point.
    Unless you buy a discounted fund before it's liquidation is announced all the talk about "Getting $100 of stock for $80" is junk.
    M* lists the historical discounts for most CEFs and their averages. I would never buy an CEF unless it was below the average discount, but many sell for very large premiums.
  • U.S. Investors Flee to Money Market Funds Amid Ukraine Crisis
    Hi @hank et al
    You noted cash flows relative to bonds in your post, with a date reference of Feb. 23. Feb. 23 is a good beginning point for bonds, related to the Madman's attack of Ukraine.
    I don't attempt to grab data about cash flows, as there is likely a delay of what data we can obtain to be of value. However, pricing in real time provides for me; what I choose to know about a market direction. The broad listing of bond types etf's below provides the information I could/would use related to cash flows.....being increasing price = cash flow in; decreasing price = cash flow out. Yes, there may be interventions with policy changes or purchases by our Fed/Treasury that may have impact upon pricing. One may place the tickers into whatever tool you may use to "watch" changes throughout the day. The exception is the BAGIX mutual fund. Y'all may find some value in this list.
    --- AGG = (widely used bond benchmark, mixed holdings)
    --- MINT = (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO)
    --- BAGIX = (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = (corp. bonds, various quality)

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • U.S. Investors Flee to Money Market Funds Amid Ukraine Crisis
    A form of timing the market or having to much at risk ?
    I would call it reallocation of one's portfolio instead. Powell's testimony early this week confirmed a 0.25% rate hike in mid-March. With over 6% inflation rate, money market funds stand to loss 6% in your buying power. In the near term, money market is okay for liquidity purpose. However, there are better vehicles for inflation protection as laid out by our MFO contributor, Devesh Shah's article below. They include REITs. short term-duration TIPS and iBond.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/2022/02/thoughts-on-inflation-protection/#more-16373
    Personally, I moved the bulk of my core bond funds in fall last year to STIP, bank loan, short term investment grade bonds and stable value.
  • U.S. Investors Flee to Money Market Funds Amid Ukraine Crisis
    Thanks for the thoughts @Derf
    I was mostly concerned with the bond fund outflows. Actually, they slowed a bit in the last reporting week compared to early in the year. One can only speculate; but ISTM all the talk by Fed officials about hiking the overnight lending rate at the next meeting has had a lot to do with the flight out of bond funds. Less demand = higher rates (short end) = falling prices / NAVs = potentially more investor flight. DODIX fell .88% yesterday - a loss one might expect over a period of several months and very rare for a single day for that fund.
    In contrast, longer dated bonds, like the U.S. 10-year Treasury, have not experienced the same degree of rate increase, leading to a flattening of the yield curve. Just this week the 10-year Treasury fell briefly below 1.70% - actually about where it stood a year earlier.
    Is it market timing? I don’t know. But when money gushes into money market funds yielding next to nothing - regardless of the source - I think it’s at least intriguing - perhaps a sign of investor fear as to what the “next shoe to drop” might be - whether at the Federal Reserve, in the equity markets or over the war in Ukraine.
    Old Thread - Fed Open Mouth Committee / The pronouncements became so frequent from so many different representatives / spokespersons that I gave up adding them. But they were mostly projecting a .25 or .50% hike in March. Some predicted 5 or more interest rate hikes beyond that this year. More recently, Chairman Powell has signified that there will be a .25% rate hike later this month.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/2/22
    For the week ending on 3/2/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (41.4%; high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (28.2%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (30.4%; below average). So, the overall sentiment improved from the very bearish reading last week. The Survey period of Thursday - Wednesday included the start of the war between Russia & Ukraine; the human tragedy & toll, & economic costs (global) will grow longer the lopsided battle continues. Other investor worries included high inflation, monetary tightening by the Fed (triple-actions; the Fed Chair Powell's testimony before the Congressional committees on Wednesday & Thursday this week) & supply-chain disruptions that may become worse. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/528/thread
  • CEF funds
    CEFs are the oldest form of funds around. But they are complex. So, followed mutual funds/OEFs, ETFs, interval-funds, etc. CEFs develop premiums/discounts and many are leveraged (so better know what you are doing). A newer development is CEFs with term-structures (PDO, TBLD, PAXS, etc), so there has been more than usual news on CEFs. Here is a good intro to them,
    https://www.icifactbook.org/21_fb_ch5.html
  • Giroux selling energy / value stocks. “We have really fundamentally changed…” WSJ
    Fund managers have target range of sell prices so to ensure they capture majority of upswing. It is likely that he still have some energy allocation. In the meantime, Apple and Amazon were off for their peaks in January and he bought them at their lows. He must believes Apple and Amazon will be much higher 12 months from now whereas the conflict will be over and oil will return to typical range. In that sense he is very opportunistic in order to gain exposure to those tech stocks at reasonable prices. Buffet often said that when you can buy solid business at good price, it actually lowers the risk on that investment.
  • Buffet’s Shareholder Letter
    The two best jobs that I had in my life were four years with the Coast Guard and twenty-something years supporting San Francisco's public safety radio systems.
    Were you still working at 91 like Buffett, OJ?
    And, nice to see Queen Elizabeth II at 95 is back on the job.
    I’d agree with the sentiment that public service work (of assorted types) is highly rewarding - even if the pay less than in the private sector. Having read / participated on the board a long time, I do think managing money would have been both enjoyable and profitable. However, I’d have lost people a fortune in the early years.
    PS- Thanks @bee for posting. There was a bit of coverage in the WSJ, but the Russian War has kind of diminished / overshadowed the normal attention Buffet’s letters receive.