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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Jeff Bezos Stepping Down As Amazon CEO
    "the groundhog just saw his shadow which means six more weeks of winter. "
    THE groundhog? If we're talking prognosticators, shouldn't we go with the better track record?
    It turns out Staten Island Chuck is, on the whole, more reliable than Phil of Punxsutawny, if you look at the past years data:
    How Often Are Our Local Groundhogs Right?
    Based on 24 predictions since 1992, as measured against data from the National Climate Data Center
    [Bar Chart]      Punxsutawney Phil 43%      Staten Island Chuck 65%
    https://gothamist.com/arts-entertainment/data-staten-island-chuck-or-punxsutawny-phil-which-groundhog-is-historically-more-accurate
    "Staten Island Chuck claimed that spring is imminent." But there are allegations of fake news: "Chuck's prognostication was suspiciously made in a pre-taped Staten Island Zoo video."
    Since this is an investing site and predictions seem to be the subject, one must consider the Super Bowl indicator. Clearly the Chiefs represent the AFC. But what about the Buccaneers? For its first season the team was in the AFC. Does that mean it's a sure bet that the market will fall this year (since there's arguably no team originally from the NFC)?
    Not so fast. The accuracy of this indicator goes down as attendance declines. With the pandemic, attendance (excluding cutouts) will be the lowest ever.
    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/does-the-super-bowl-indicator-work
    Lies, darn lies, and statistics.
  • Small Caps
    GME was DOWN a whopping 60% today BUT MSSMX was UP 2.05%.
    So GME could have been part of the cause of yesterday's fractionally DOWN day. If it was though, it would seem likely then that GME was sold yesterday as MSSMX did not have the same price action today on an even steeper GME drop.
    That's a WAG at best given the dated port holdings and that alone causing me to NOT take a deep dive under the hood. For me at least, it is what it is on this one.
    I did tip off my allocation today so I am strapped in for at least a couple of months while planning to hold LT. Either way, expecting a WILD ride.
    Elwood: It's 106 miles to Chicago, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark and we're wearing sunglasses.
    Jake: Hit it!
  • So it Really Isn't Free...Understanding PFOP
    Josh Brown explains things entertainingly:

  • Reddit traders are helping to inflate a bond bubble: Ark's Cathie Wood

    While some deep value and/or companies with too much debt may be impacted by some form of Reddit inspired trading; unless the bond market place becomes overwhelmed by bond slayers, I'm not concerned about potential impact; with the exception of pockets of disruption in some single issues that are junk or borderline corporate junk. I'm not saying these companies do not exist, they surely do. A Reddit traders big test would be to go after Ford or a similar company with a lot of debt, to discover their power OR not.
    Estimated global bond value as of August, 2020 is $128.3 Trillion.
    My 2 cents worth.
    Catch
  • EQUITY. A wee bit twitchy this morning, eh?
    For our portfolio:
    We slowly added more VWO and mathew asia past few days/week.
    added GM & QQQ last wk
    401k 80/20 still. [all aboard full streams ahead]
    -------------------------------------------------
    For Mama portfolio [retired] all new monies divs go to fidelity 2020 fund and BND FBND
    In Texas ~ 25%s economy dependent on energy sectors. Maybe much more pains /sufferings ahead. we see at least 10% of shops small business/big business closing in our town near Austin. Hope we don't see more bankrupcies or see 1980s /2008s marketlike conditions [Main street issues overflow to Wall Streets]
    Kind regards
    JNN
  • Small Caps
    There's something happening here
    What it is ain't exactly clear
    -Stills
    "For What It's Worth."
    ...But... What's it worth? Russell 2K today up like crazy. +2.53%. I've only 10% in small-caps. But I still like my allocation. Don't like the volatility anymore.
  • Who Owns Stocks? Explaining the Rise in Inequality During the Pandemic
    No surprise but the graphs are revealing.
    "Although the distribution of income is unequal in the United States, ownership of financial assets in general and stocks in particular is even more so."
    NY Times Article
    By Robert Gebeloff
    Jan. 26, 2021
  • Keefer Babbitt leaves Grandeur Peak Advisors (obituary)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421001942/fp0061786_497.htm
    497 1 fp0061786_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST: GRANDEUR PEAK FUNDS
    Grandeur Peak Global Contrarian Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund
    (the “Funds”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED FEBRUARY 1, 2021 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES, PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THE FUNDS DATED AUGUST 31, 2020
    Effective January 22, 2021, Keefer Babbitt is no longer serving as a co-portfolio manager of the Funds. Therefore, all references to Mr. Babbitt in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information are hereby deleted as of that date.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    One can research ownership info on M*. Each company's page has an "Ownership" tab, e.g. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/gme/ownership
    In addition to showing individual funds and fund complexes/institutions holding the largest number of shares, one can find the funds with the highest concentration of shares.
    Theoretically an institution with a large number of shares can move the stock price, but this assumes it has the flexibility to do so (i.e. the shares are not in index funds with stringent constraints). What matters to fund investors is the ownership concentration in funds they own.
    For example, SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT has 19.34% of its assets in GME (per M*). According to the fund's web page, as of January 29th, that was 19.47% of the fund.
    What Schwab Fundamental Large Company ETF FNDX is doing with 2½% (per M*) of its portfolio in GameStop is beyond me. I guess one has to read index providers' definitions carefully. According to Schwab, as of Jan 28, the fund's 1½% allocation to GME was its 5th largest, nestled between JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and AT&T (T).
    Reuters may have confused Lipper data regarding two different Fidelity funds that are clones of each other. Fidelity Series Intrinsic Opportunities FDMLX is a $13.7B fund, while Fidelity Flex Intrinsic Opportunities FFNPX is a tiny $36M fund.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-funds-idUSKBN29X0LZ
    As of their latest quarterly reports (posted Dec 29, 2020), the Flex fund did have 0.639% of its assets in GME, but in such a tiny fund that amounted to nothing ($161K). The larger Series fund held 44x as much stock, but that constituted 0.59% of the fund. Close, the funds are clones, but not the same.
    The Fidelity Series funds are for use by other Fidelity funds. So even the small 0.59% ownership is further diluted by its inclusion in other funds.
    The Intrinsic Opportunities funds (both of them) are managed by Tillinghast. FLPSX's position in GME amounts to just 0.09% of the fund, as of its latest quarterly report.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    @Derf,
    It appears that enough FPA shareholders approved the merger. Found this filing by Bragg Capital this morning:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1170611/000110465921009595/a21-4366_1497.htm
    Here is footnote concerning the merger:
    "... Includes compensation from the Funds, FPA Capital Fund, Inc., (reorganized into Queens Road Small Cap effective February 1, 2021)..."
    Checked my FPA Capital account this morning...my shares were switched to FPA Queens Road Small Cap Instl. shares as of this morning; shares were adjusted for the lower NAV of the FPA Queens Road Small Cap Instl NAV price than the FPA Capital NAV.
    Just found these news releases:
    https://fpa.com/docs/default-source/FPA-News-Documents/fpa-qr-capital-merger-press-release-final.pdf?sfvrsn=2
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fpa-announces-completion-fpa-capital-143000983.html
  • Wanna play a game? Silver price being pushed this morning by Reddit Army.
    @rsorden
    .......Type the name of the pieces you own in the search box at the top of the Ebay link below to discover current pricing of your pieces; IF they are listed for sale at Ebay. The link is active for your use for whatever else at Ebay.
    If silver bullion pricing moves a lot above and beyond its "normal" range for the past 10 years, then, IMHO; the bullion price will overwhelm the collectible price, with the exception of truly collectible pieces; which would likely reside in the rare coin area.
    Folks will again start to unload "melt silver" coins and related items. The jewelry stores and pawn shops will have a lot of traffic. This was the pattern that persisted for about 6 months in the late '70's.
    I've used Ebay for many years to determine what the general public is willing to pay for item "x" to have and hold in their hand, not an etf or other investment market device. The below link is for "closed auctions/bids" for silver bullion related items. This list will continue to update as auctions/bids close. This is a long list that one may scroll through to older dates.
    Closed auction prices, Ebay.
    ADD: Silver retail sites freeze from demand
  • Wanna play a game? Silver price being pushed this morning by Reddit Army.
    I wonder how long this "silver squeeze" is gonna last? It's a waaay bigger market than GME or AMC and I'm not sure those keyboard warrior Reddit users have the patience to wait for a 1500% return that likely won't ever come.
    Curious what this will do to for all the silver coins I purchased last year...mostly collectible coins, or coins with cool designs (my fave being the Star Wars series with a Darth Vader helmet, Stormtrooper helmet, Death Star, frozen Han)...those were all waaaay more expensive than the spot price, but only a limited number were produced, so they are highly collectible.
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Reuters: The Fidelity Intrinsic Opportunities fund, for instance, owns 9.75% of GameStop’s outstanding shares, according to Lipper data. Yet that position accounts for just 0.64% of the fund’s assets. The fund is up 5.6% for the year-to-date, approximately 1.5 percentage points less than the benchmark Russell 2000 index.
    The BlackRock Advantage Small Cap Core fund holds 0.03% of its assets in GameStop, according to Lipper.
    Overall, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, owned about 9.2 million shares in GameStop as of Dec. 31, 2020, spread over several funds. If BlackRock has not since sold any of those shares, its stake’s value is up $2.4 billion since the start of the year.
  • Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
    Along the same vein as Grantham, in this podcast, David Rosenberg thinks stocks are priced for perfection.
    https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/sthh_0109/
    And here too:
    https://financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-life-is-not-going-back-to-normal-even-if-the-market-doesnt-see-it-yet
    “ Of the 10 million who have still not found a job after being laid off this past year, we estimate that only three million will come back to the workforce. That leaves seven million unemployed long term on top of the four million who have already exited the labour market.
    Life is not going back to normal even if the market doesn’t yet see it and the consensus builds that we are heading to the Roaring Twenties.”
    And on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/econguyrosie/status/1355187715919257604?s=21
  • Is anyone else concerned about what is happening?
    Yes they made 1 billion on paper, but what happens when they start to dump 9 million shares back into the market ? I googled share holders of GameStop & up pops Vanguard 5.4 million & Fido 6.8 million. these aren't total holdings as of now, but an earlier total. Do you suppose they draw straws to see who gets to sell the first million shares ??!!
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • Don't be surprised if this young man shows up here on MFO
    I wish my daughter had taken my advice about selling some of her Beanie Babies when they became a bubble! Unfortunately, she didn’t and we still have a closet full of them. At least our puppy has found a use for them.
    I bought my nephew and niece each one when they first became a rage. My nephew sold his for something like $1,200 and my niece got about $500 for hers.
  • The Best Core Stock Funds - M*
    I saw this list in the M* article. Pretty hard to create a more obvious list than this for suggested core holdings.
    Lemme get this straight: Buy a Total Stock Market index and/or S&P 500 Index for your core holding? Duh.
    Moving past the obvious, if you remove ALL of the (unbelievable number of) Total Stock Market Index and S&P 500 Index, what do you really have?
    One that you have is OAKMX, a 2-star, dog of a fund that's been mired in 3+ consecutive years of horrific underperformance, that you couldn't pay me to own. Pretty much ditto on FMIHX which is already DOWN 3+% YTD.
    The author should have just stuck with the obvious.
  • EQUITY. A wee bit twitchy this morning, eh?
    Most here, if you're not operating a hedge fund; may have your own form of theoretical downside equity protection via some form of hopefully, productive high quality bonds. Presuming none of you had to cover big short positions in equity(s); bonds didn't do much this week to offer more support for a portfoio.
    We'll discover how the markets move along next week, eh?
    With this, I'll post the list again; which may give you a sense of how bonds within your holdings mix fared last week and YTD.
    JANUARY 29 WEEK / YTD .....Data M* performance
    --- AGG = +.05% / -.74% (widely used bond benchmark, mixed holdings)
    --- MINT = + .00% / +.08% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = + .02% / +.02% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + .05% /-.28% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.05% /-1.1% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.17% / +.27% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = +.21% / -1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +.08% /-3.6% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.27% / -4.7% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.09 /-5.4% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    --- BAGIX = +.05% / -.63 (active managed, plain vanilla, h.q. bond fund)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -.38% / -.38% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -.07% / -1.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Have a good remainder.
    Catch
  • Don't be surprised if this young man shows up here on MFO
    Well, the GameStop stock boom has been quite a lesson for Jaydyn Carr. Here's edited excerpts from a Washington Post article.
    By Sydney Page
    Jan. 30, 2021 at 3:00 a.m. PST
    The GameStop stock surge has benefited small-scale investors, many of them surprised at their unlikely windfalls. Perhaps none so much as a 10-year-old boy from San Antonio.
    The fifth-grader was gifted 10 GameStop shares, each at $6.19, as a Kwanzaa present from his mother in December 2019. She bought the stock simply because her son liked to buy video games at the store and she wanted to teach him a little about the stock market.
    In a matter of minutes this week, Jaydyn Carr became an unexpected beneficiary of the market mayhem, as his $60 stake in the video game retailer grew to $3,200. “Is this really happening right now?” Jaydyn’s mother, Nina Carr, remembers asking herself. “I couldn’t believe it was true.”
    Carr, 31, was working in her home office on Wednesday when a slew of news alerts about GameStop’s Reddit-spurred surge started appearing on her phone. Her jaw dropped. Once she absorbed the news, she sprinted to her son’s bedroom. “I was so excited for him,” she said. In simple terms, she described to Jaydyn what happened to his GameStop shares and why they suddenly skyrocketed.
    “She was saying that stocks hardly ever go up this way, so if I wanted to sell it, we should sell it now,” Jaydyn said.
    Ultimately, the choice was his. “It wouldn’t be fair for me to make the decision on his behalf,” Carr explained. Besides, she added, “if he lost the money, it would have been a lesson learned.” So, she asked her only child the burning question: “Do you want to sell or stay?” To her relief, Jaydyn decided to sell.
    When Carr bought the GameStop shares in 2019 as a Kwanzaa gift, her sole intention in purchasing the stock was to teach her then-eight-year-old son about Ujamaa, which means, “cooperative economics.” It’s one of the seven principles of Kwanzaa. “The goal was to ensure he knows the value of a dollar and how to manage money,” Carr said, explaining that Ujamaa is the idea of sharing wealth while also strengthening personal finances and self-reliance. Carr said that since Jaydyn’s father passed away in February 2014, it has been a priority for her to educate her son about money management.
    “I am very frugal, and saving is a big part of what I do. Being the only parent, I want to set a good example for him,” she said. “I got into finance when his dad passed away. I wanted to make sure his future was in good hands.” Carr — who is a public health nutritionist and runs her own business — felt the gift was an opportunity to reinforce the importance of investments.
    “I was so excited. I thought it wasn’t even reality,” Jaydyn said. Carr then walked her son through the selling process, and he cashed out his shares. The plan is to put $2,200 in Jaydyn’s savings account and then invest the remaining $1,000 as a mother-son team. According to Jaydyn, he has already learned a lot from his mom: “She is always teaching me what to do in emergencies in life and how to save money to one day buy a car and a house,” he said. For Jaydyn, this is just the beginning. He has already got big plans: “I am now looking for companies that pay dividends,” he said confidently.

    image
    (Image is from the Washington Post.)