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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    PRSNX. Bonds in my portfolio = 51% of total. PRSNX = 21.55% of total portfolio. It is below the zero-line so far in 2021 by just a fraction. RELIABLE. Owned it for several years, now. Other bond funds in portfolio are RPSIX, at 22.46% of total. And PTIAX at 7.25% of total. PRWCX and BRUFX hold bonds, too. I have so far, regretted putting money into those three funds not for a moment.
  • bernie hangover led to indexing
    I’ve long been convinced that there is a link between the end of Madoff’s scheme and the overwhelming popularity of index-fund investing in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It’s not simply that, as the Wall Street Journal theorized, people realized pricey money managers hadn’t seen what was coming. Nor was it merely that the regulators’ cursory investigations into Madoff’s fund left many dubious of all sorts of investments (and the officials tasked with overseeing them). Instead, Madoff demonstrated the lie that almost any savvy individual investor could produce steady gains in a way that nothing else could. By destroying the retirements and dreams of so many, he inadvertently performed a much-needed service.
    I'm not so convinced. Outside the realm of the ultra-rich, Madoff was hardly known before the scandal because it was an exclusive hedge fund. Meanwhile, Bogle was already practically a household name by the time of the scandal. I would say the growth of no load funds and fee-only/fee-based financial advisers had more to do with the shift to indexing. Instead of selling high cost active management with a commission or load based fund, advisers were charging a percentage of asset fee, typically 1%. Combine that fee with a high cost active fund charging 1.5% and you've got a 2.5% drag on returns each year. A 0.05% index fund combined with the 1% was far more palatable and produced better results. The whole advice model has shifted dramatically.
    Any bull market of course will drive investors to index too, and of course Bogle's own presence, his constant evangelizing and having the numbers to back it up. If there was any fund's fall that might have done more harm to active manager's influence on retail investors it would be Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value when it got completely crushed during the 2008-09 crisis after 15 straight years of beating the market. He was one of the last great heroes of active management in the retail world. Who by contrast in retail-land heard of Madoff before everyone who had heard of him lost their shirts?
  • Why Index Funds are Nuts
    Wouldn't an equally weighted S&P 500 Index take care of that for you?
  • Why Index Funds are Nuts
    Interesting story. If you invest in the S&P 500 Index (I do) - then over 25% of your money in that fund is on 6 companies: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and wait for it... Tesla.
    If you invest in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund... it's 19%.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-index-funds-are-nuts-11618425937
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity

    As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I am also "mixing and matching to have a consistent performance over time" by using the following funds in my portfolio which M* classifies as "Low" or "Below Average" risk:
    ARBIX, NVHAX, VWINX, JHQAX, RCTIX, and TSIIX
    Good luck,
    Fred
    Hi @fred495, Mac from old M* days here. I've been following RCTIX for a while and am just about at the point of putting some $ in it. I'm curious what you think of the asset mix, the volatility, the day-to-day performance (fairly steady or not?) etc.
    It looks reasonable to me from the outside, another good mostly securitized credit option, but it'd be good to hear your perspective. How has it met (or not) your expectations?
    Thanks, AJ
  • Morgan Stanley Inception Portfolio fund already closed to new investors
    Sorry if this is a repeat. I don't remember posting/seeing this filing.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836487/000110465921032581/a21-8652_3497.htm
    497 1 a21-8652_3497.htm 497
    Prospectus and Summary
    Prospectus Supplement
    March 5, 2021
    Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc.
    Supplement dated March 5, 2021 to the Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated April 30, 2020
    Inception Portfolio (the "Fund")
    Effective at the close of business on April 5, 2021, the Fund will suspend offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund to new investors, except as follows. The Fund will continue to offer Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund:
    (1) through certain retirement plan accounts,
    (2) to clients of certain registered investment advisers who currently offer shares of the Fund in their asset allocation programs,
    (3) to directors and trustees of the Morgan Stanley Funds,
    (4) to Morgan Stanley affiliates and their employees,
    (5) to benefit plans sponsored by Morgan Stanley and its affiliates and
    (6) omnibus accounts sponsored or serviced by a financial intermediary that currently hold shares of the Fund in such accounts.
    Retirement plan accounts (including new retirement plan accounts) investing through platforms that trade omnibus by plan for Fund shares as of April 5, 2021, fall under the exception for "certain retirement plan accounts" set forth above.
    Existing omnibus accounts (accounts offered on platforms that aggregate all underlying client-level transactions into one account) that are shareholders of record are considered one type of existing shareholder. Therefore, shares of the Fund will continue to be offered to underlying clients (including new clients) through such existing omnibus accounts.
    The Fund will continue to offer Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund to existing shareholders. In addition, the Adviser, in its discretion, may make certain exceptions to the suspended offering of Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund.
    The Fund may recommence offering Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares of the Fund to new investors in the future. Any such offerings of the Fund's Class I, Class A, Class C and Class IS shares may be limited in amount and may commence and terminate without any prior notice.
    The Fund has suspended offering Class L shares to all investors. Class L shareholders of the Fund do not have the option of purchasing additional Class L shares. However, existing Class L shareholders may invest in additional Class L shares through reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    IFIINCEPTPROSPSPT 3/21
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @hank : PRSIX appears to be holding close to 13.5 % cash at this time. Is this a (normal) % for cash or are they building some dry powder ?
    Just wondering , Derf
    @Derf - It may be a bit of an illusion. Lipper puts the stock holdings today at 40%, which is the fund’s target equity allocation. More likely, the cash buildup represents a retrenchment from bonds into cash / shorter duration securities. No doubt, however, they’ve also moved away from equities to a lesser extent (from a slightly overweight position).
    Here’s what I’ve been able to dig up .....
    From T. Rowe’s website on (April 14) https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRSIX / Click on “Portfolio” option at top.

    Domestic Bond 26.90%
    Domestic Stock 26.40%
    Foreign Bonds 16.10%
    Foreign Stock 13.40%
    Cash 10.80%
    Other 5.80%
    Convertibles 0.50%
    Preferred Stock 0.10%

    Here’s the fund’s Semi-Annual Report from November 2020. Reserves are listed at 10%. Contains a foot-note stating that reserves include the “cash underlying futures positions such as the Russell 2000 futures” https://www.troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/semi-annual-report/sub-type/mf?productCode=PSI¤cy
    Here’s its published March 31, 2021 update . https://www.troweprice.com/literature/public/country/us/language/en/literature-type/portfolio-update/sub-type/portfolio-update?productCode=PSI¤cy=USD
    Curiously, above March update puts “cash benchmarked” at 23%. Some of the 23% reflects cash underlying futures positions . I’d take that 23% number with a large grain of salt. Especially since It appears the linked March 31 report was intended for professionals and not ndividual investors. Stated cash gets “funky” sometimes when funds engage in derivatives, short sales, futures trading, etc. (all a bit beyond my comprehension).
    Lipper puts cash now at 14%. And M* has it at 13.5%. T. Rowe’s own investor website lists cash as 10.8%.
    Note: Money managers and individuals generally have shifted from longer duration bonds into shorter duration bonds, and cash / cash alternatives over the past 3 months. So the cash build for PRSIX likely reflects a similar move by PRSIX’s managers.
    *** I’m still puzzled by that high “benchmarked cash”. Wondering if it might reference the cash held by the fund’s benchmark index)? I can’t imagine one of their conservative allocation funds getting that high. TRRIX, by comparison, has virtually no cash, preferring to use intermediate / short duration TIPS in that spot.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @hank : PRSIX appears to be holding close to 13.5 % cash at this time. Is this a (normal) % for cash or are they building some dry powder ?
    Just wondering , Derf
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    DODLX and DODBX are both available, although, like Vanguard funds, Fidelity spitefully charges a $75 transaction fee. Vanguard only charges a $20 tf for purchases of Fidelity and Dodge & Cox funds.
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    I hate to say it ... but I think crypto acceptance is accelerating for many reasons. My little experiment is up 25% since my first post here. My regret is that I didn’t take it seriously earlier. I’ve dismissed it for years.
    A nice primer for new investors in crypto: https://www.marketwatch.com/video/what-you-need-to-know-before-investing-in-crypto/EB6C438A-53F5-4A2F-8055-58D5644CD587.html
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @fred495 ...
    PRSIX is where I’d like to be someday when I’m too old to know which end is up - or much less care. One of T. Rowe’s strengths is their intelligent macro-reads and ability to steer funds like that in the right direction. Of course, they have a lot of good funds to start with. (Currently, I’m only 7-8% allocated to it.)
    My take (a bit overstated) on TMSRX: a Rube Goldberg concoction, consisting of 5 different managers each pulling in a slightly different direction with the expectation that at least 1 or 2 of them will get it right at any particular time. Because it can short stocks or bonds, expenses run high. Difficult trick to pull off. They’ve done a great job keeping it above water. It’s nice to own because it will dampen down your overall volatility by moving differently than the stock / bond markets quite frequently. Don’t expect to make a lot with it. (It’s about 18% of my holdings.)
    Of the two I mentioned, TMSRX is probably “less risky” in that it shouldn’t fall as far in a bad market. But PRSIX is pretty tame and should generate at least a couple more percentage points on the upside over 5-10 year stretches.
    BTW - A very close fund to PRSIX is TRRIX. My take is that the former is slightly more aggressively positioned.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    Just for the h*** of it, last night I sorted my 16 funds from “best” to “worst.” Very unscientific. No particular criteria other than my perception of potential risk / reward - much gained looking at Yahoo’s excellent historical data. I think that for the 10 minutes or less it took, it’s a useful endeavor. (#3 and #5 probably aren’t available thru Fidelity.)
    1. PRWCX
    2. PRSIX
    3. DODBX
    4. PRPFX
    5. DODLX
    (I realize #4 is a contentious pick and have no desire to argue my case)
    At the bottom of the heap were cash equivalent / short term bond funds like TRBUX and TSDLX. It’s hard to justify paying an ER for their minuscule return.
    Sorry - Just remembered PRWCX isn’t available - period - unless you already own it.
    RPGAX came in #6 on the list. I think over time it will outperform. But the internationals haven’t kept pace with domestic. I doubt the hedge fund exposure to date has added little more than an extra layer of fees. Things do and will change.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    Thanks @fred495. I own ARBIX, VWIAX,FMSDX, and will check out NVHAX, JHQAX, RCTIX, and TSIIX.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @Fred TMSRX's have been low, but maximum draw down was only 4.7% during the past three years. One year return is 18% and three year return is 5.4%. Their goal, if I remember correctly, is to make 6% plus the rate of inflation over time.
    For me, TMSRX fits in as a low risk fund that will not lose much and will make decent returns. It fits in between bonds and stocks. Below are the funds that I am researching now. During changes in market conditions they do better or worse. I look at mixing and matching to have a consistent performance over time.
    CRAAX, TMSRX, FMSDX, CTFAX, ETIMX, GAVIX, MNBAX, RBBAX, VWIAX, VTINX
  • There Will Be Growth in the Spring (Investment Humor)
    I used to spend Saturday morning reading Barron's and it was filled with lots of information. $12.50 per month is a reasonable for digital subscription. Will check again if I can get it on my iPad. I also subscribe to Apple News Plus for $10 per month and I get assess to many news publications. Some includes Barron's and Bloomberg, only give a few articles. I like to support many worthy news such as NPR.
  • There Will Be Growth in the Spring (Investment Humor)
    Thanks for comment @Sven.
    Sounds like some here manage portfolios exceeding 1-2 M. And I’d hazard a guess the vast majority are well into 6 figures. When managing that amount of $$, one need glean only a relatively small amount of market insight from a $10-$15 monthly subscription (to Barron’s or other publication) to make a meaningful difference in portfolio value over a year’s time frame.
    *Amazon’s Barron’s Kindle Edition = $12.50 monthly.
  • 2020-21 Capital Gains estimates
    FSRPX and FSMEX paid capital gains 4/9/21. I did finally see it posted on Fidelity's website. I'll check out M* thanks @DaveSch...good stuff...that worked:
    image