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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • When to take Social Security
    Myth #5 "This borrowing fuels the notion that the government is raiding or even stealing from Social Security and leaving it with nothing but IOUs. But the government has always made full repayment, and the interest increases Social Security's assets, to the tune of more than $80 billion in 2019 alone.
    Interest payment of$80 BILLION in 2019 alone !! How much are they borrowing ???
    Derf
  • Recommendations for new fund house?
    Planning to move some $$ from TRP after dealing with poor service the past 4-6 months. My thinking is to start small - probably at Fido. Get a mm fund with check writing up and running. If happy with their service, website, etc. expand that out to some IRA transfers in. I’d like to think TRP will get their front office back in order soon. But it’s been a most frustrating 4-5 months dating back to January - if not earlier.
    Some explanation.
    In January I put through a change of address. Got confirmation promptly online. Double-checked with a phone call same day. Yet 3 weeks later they sent a fresh pack of blank checks to the old address. After that, out of security concerns, I switched to all-electronic delivery of statements. Worked fine for 3 months (at least I assume) until last week when a complete monthly account statement displaying Roth, Traditional and TOD account info arrived U.S. mail. Called TRP again. Was told having the existing check writing feature active on the TOD money fund would require being sent monthly paper statements on all accounts from now on. Geez - I didn’t even know they had monthly statements. So, during that call I axed the check writing feature.
    Now, a few days later, another paper statement shows up in the mail - this one’s confirming a small exchange I made a week ago. Called again. Inquired as to the date the mailing of paper statements had resumed so I’d know they were all correctly delivered. They say they cannot look back in time as to whether a statement was delivered by mail or electronically. Asked to speak to tech support and was denied. And I haven’t even mentioned the lengthy phone delays often encountered.
    What’s Important to me
    - Decent number and variety of managed funds: Growth, value, income, allocation funds, sector funds
    - Ability to move funds from old custodian to new one electronically.
    - Ability to move money between funds fairly regularly without trading fees. 30 day “blocks” are OK.
    - Load free with reasonable ERs
    - Option to defer taxes when taking IRA distributions (probably pretty common)
    - e delivery of documents
    - free checkwriting
    - $2500 or lower initial fund purchase
  • When to take Social Security
    Thanks for your figures. Now I can be more specific to your particular "what if". Since I'm still making estimates, feel free to adjust the calculations as needed.
    For the sake of argument, let's assume that your SS benefits are 50% taxable. (It could be as high as 85%.) Let's also assume that you're working part time until age 70 so that we don't have too many different intervals to compute.
    Finally, let's assume a fed marginal tax rate of 22% and a state marginal rate of 6% for a combined 28% rate. We have to pick some figure to work with to make this concrete.
    I gather from your followup that you need an extra $20K/year (after tax) over and above your part time income for your expenses until you fully retire (assumed age 70). The fact that you'd be drawing from your IRA for this money suggests no money in taxable accounts - since that's what conventional wisdom says to deplete first.
    So if you defer benefits, you'll need to draw $27,778/year from the IRA. (72% of this gives $20K post tax).
    OTOH, if you take benefits at age 67, you'll get to "bank" $14,028/year, assuming you bank it in that same deductible T-IRA:
    $35K pre-tax SS benefits = $20K for expenses + $14,028 to IRA + $972 taxes
    [ net taxes = tax on SS benefits - tax savings on deductible IRA contribution
    $972 = (28% x 1/2 x $35K) - (28% x $14,028) = $4,900 - $3,928]
    So from age 67 to age 70, you're either reducing your IRA by $27,778/year or growing it by $14,028. That's a difference of $41,806/year for three years. In pretax dollars. In post-tax dollars (72%), that's $30.1K.
    I already explained how to account for the growth of this amount in an earlier post in this thread. So I'll just give the results here:
    Expected value of $30.1K (post-tax) difference/year over three years: $104K (portfolio visualizer), $93K in real (inflation adjusted) dollars.
    After age 70, if you've deferred SS, you'll be receiving 132%/108% x $35K, roughly $42.8K/year.
    Compared with the $35K you'd get by starting at age 67, that's a $7.8K/year difference pre-tax, real dollars. Post tax, the difference is $7.8K - (28% x $7.8K x 1/2) = $6.7K/year.
    The extra savings and growth ($93K real dollars to age 70) that you get by taking SS at age 67 can on average be expected to cover this $6.7K shortfall through age 87 (portfolio visualizer).
    That's a tad under what the new RMD table1 (single life) gives as the expected lifetime (88.2) for someone now age 67.
    The comment "by the way your dead at the end anyway" suggests that you're not giving much weight to the risk of loss once you're dead, since, well, you're dead anyway. OTOH, the risk of having less money while you're alive is going to matter. A risk averse person who values these two risks (dying before "breaking even", and living "too long") differently will tend to make the choice that reduces the more important risk.
    In addition, the estimate that by deferring benefits one will begin pulling ahead around age 87 is a result subject to wide variations. Maybe the market will not produce 7%/year (the figure I used as input), maybe it will swoon early in your drawdown period. Maybe you'll do much better, maybe you'll do much worse.
    In contrast, SS is a steady (inflation adjusted) income stream. All else being equal, the risk averse person will take the sure thing.
    A final note on the numbers. The calculations above incorporate the effect of taxes and account for investment growth. Your potential shortfall by taking benefits at age 67 and living to 100 still comes out to nearly triple magnitude you hypothesized: ""$10k, 20k, 30k maybe?" Or maybe $87K (13 x $6.7K, post tax, in real dollars).
  • Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/17/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-reveals-a-530-million-bet-against-tesla.html
    Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla
    KEY POINTS
    Michael Burry is long puts against 800,100 shares of Tesla or $534 million by the end of the first quarter, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
    Burry was one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis.
    Burry previously mentioned in a tweet, that Tesla's reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits is also an impediment to the company's long-term prospects****
    No pain _no play no gain
    You may need to go * all in * sometimes to win it big
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    +1 et91 I always try to find ntf substitutes for tf funds. Dodge & Cox has been my exception, but I'm hoping to buy DODIX ntf at Chase You Invest;unfortunately the minimum investment is $2500, but if the minimum changed to $1000, I would buy the fund today !
  • Grandeur Peak closing two funds through financial intermediaries (with stipulations)
    From an email I just received from GP:
    May 17, 2021
    Dear Fellow Shareholders,
    With the continued strength of global markets and the performance of the Grandeur Peak Funds, we find it necessary to announce the following fund closures effective as of market close on Friday, May 28, 2021.
    Moving to Hard Closure[1]:
    *Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund (GPEOX/GPEIX)
    Moving to Soft Closure[2]:
    *Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund (GPROX/GPRIX)
    As you know, we carefully review capacity at both the strategy and firm level. We are committed to keeping our investment strategies nimble to fully pursue their investment objectives without being encumbered by their individual asset base or the firm’s collective assets. Achieving performance for our clients remains our paramount objective as always.
    As of June 1st, the Grandeur Peak Funds that remain open to all investors include:
    *Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts Fund (GGSOX/GGSYX)
    *Grandeur Peak Global Contrarian Fund (GPGCX)
    *Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts Fund (GUSYX)
    To check the current open/closed status of all Grandeur Peak Funds at any time, please visit our website.
    Thank you for your continued trust. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me or a member of our Client Relations Team.
    Best Regards,
    Eric
    [1]"Hard Closure": means that these Funds will no longer accept purchases, from new or existing investors, through financial intermediaries unless the purchase is part of: (1) a retirement plan which held the Fund prior to this closure, (2) an automatic reinvestment of a distribution made by the Fund, or (3) a de minimis annual rebalancing approved by a member of the Grandeur Peak client team. The Funds will remain open to purchases from existing investors, and to new investors who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds. The Funds retain the right to make exceptions to any Fund closure or limitation on purchases.
    [2] "Soft Closure" means that the Fund will close to new investors seeking to purchase shares of the Fund through third-party intermediaries subject to certain exceptions for financial advisors with an established position in the Fund and participants in certain qualified retirement plans with an existing position in the Fund. The Fund will remain open to purchases from existing investors, and to new investors who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds. The Funds retain the right to make exceptions to any Fund closure or limitation on purchases.
    PDF from GP:
    https://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/documents/grandeurpeakglobal-pr-20210517.pdf
  • Coinbase: ‘This business will be commoditized,’ New Constructs CEO argues
    David Trainer looks at Coinbase and other similar investments the way this skeptic still does......
    Coinbase (COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., could see profits come under pressure as more companies embrace blockchain and competition in the exchange space increases, according to at least one strategist.
    "This business will be commoditized," David Trainer, CEO of the research firm New Constructs, told Yahoo Finance on Friday.
    "You don't make a lot of money trading things," Trainer said.
    ..."firms like Coinbase are kind of tricking you into thinking, oh, because we're blockchain, we're going to be real profitable," he said. "Well, the real truth about blockchain is that companies are going to be less profitable."
    Coinbase
  • Grandeur Peak closing two funds through financial intermediaries (with stipulations)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421010939/fp0065552_497.htm
    497 1 fp0065552_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST: GRANDEUR PEAK FUNDS
    GRANDEUR PEAK EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES FUND
    GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL REACH FUND
    (Each, a “Fund,” and together, the “Funds”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 17, 2021 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND
    PROSPECTUS OF THE FUNDS DATED AUGUST 31, 2020,
    AS SUPPLEMENTED FROM TIME TO TIME
    Effective as of the close of business on May 28, 2021, the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund will no longer accept purchases, from new or existing investors, through financial intermediaries unless the purchase is part of:
    ● a retirement plan which held the Fund prior to this closure,
    ● an automatic reinvestment of a distribution made by the Fund, or
    ● a de minimis annual rebalancing approved by a member of the Grandeur Peak client team.
    Also, effective as of the close of business on May 28, 2021, the Grandeur Peak Global Reach Fund will close to new investors seeking to purchase shares of the Fund through third party intermediaries subject to certain exceptions for financial advisors with an established position in the Fund and participants in certain qualified retirement plans with an existing position in the Fund.
    The Funds remain open to purchases directly from Grandeur Peak Funds by existing investors and by new investors.
    The Funds retain the right to make exceptions to any Fund closure or limitation on purchases.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • When to take Social Security
    lost extra income over 30 years minus gained extra income over first three years =
    30 years x 12mo/year x ($2112 - $1728) - $62,208 = $138,240 - $62,208 = $76,032.
    @msf, This synopsis is a pretty straight forward, narrow view. But for everyone there are the "what ifs".
    What if during the years I wait from 67 to 70, I had to withdraw $20k a year
    from an IRA to make up the income deficit for cutting back or eliminating work income? $20k x 3 years is $60k potential growth loss. So, that kind of makes your extra $76,032 gain IF I live until 97 more of a pittance in the scheme of things in my opinion. There is a much greater chance of not living until 97 than doing so statistics say. Factor in that $20k from an IRA is fully taxed. SS is partially taxed. And lets factor in the excess SS I will receive at 67 that I don't need to make up my reduced work income. Still using the $20k needed to fill my income deficit, I now have $15k to bank for 3 years = $45k (I should receive ~$35k/year SS now, (35ss - 20 needed income = 15 excess to save).
    Bottom line in my mind, that straight forward formula you gave can easily be affected by real life factors everyone has. With all those factors and probably more factors we may not be aware of heading down the road, using your wait until 70 formula has huge variability for being accurate. I think some of the articles posted in this string are saying a similar view.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    The Changing Characteristics of Labor:
    ...by all accounts robots and other forms of automation are set to explode in usage. What this means is that trillions more “hands” will enter the labor force. Better yet, these “hands” will work 24-hours a day, 365 days a year. They’ll never call in sick, or quit either. Their immense productivity will enable human specialization that will render the present rather primitive by comparison. We’re amazed in modern times that there are professional video game players, and video game coaches, but in future decades the previously-mentioned professions will be ho hum compared to what people will eventually be paid to do.
    Forbe's Article:
    ignore-the-pessimists-the-baby-bust-is-a-bullish-market-signal
  • Best ETF or Mutual Funds for severe inflationary cycle?
    Bloomberg Article on Demand and Price Inflation:
    Mattress producers to car manufacturers to aluminum foil makers are buying more material than they need to survive the breakneck speed at which demand for goods is recovering and assuage that primal fear of running out. The frenzy is pushing supply chains to the brink of seizing up. Shortages, transportation bottlenecks and price spikes are nearing the highest levels in recent memory, raising concern that a supercharged global economy will stoke inflation.
    The World Economy Is Suddenly Running Low on Everything
    inflation-rate-2021-and-shortages-companies-panic-buying-as-supplies-run
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    I thought the original topic worth airing. Appreciate all the great input from members. Lots of great ideas on this and associated investment subjects.
    Bottom line for me (from the experience related above) is that none of the four fund families I deal with any longer appear to require the medallion for transfers under 50K or 100K (depending on institution). With my retirement distributions consistently coming out of TRP, I can continue to “feed the goose that lays the golden egg” as necessary without the added hassle. Amen. :)
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    We had a medallion signature guaranty run around with Vanguard. We had a joint taxable account that we were splitting into two individual trust accounts as part of an estate plan. Vanguard required a medallion signature on the transfer paperwork (even though the names were all the same and the money was staying at Vanguard). We went to our local credit union, but they only guaranty up to $50k. We went to Fidelity, where my husband's 401k is, and they said no because the paperwork wasn't for a Fidelity account. After many, many phone calls to Vanguard, they finally admitted that we could sign up for voice verification and then do the whole thing online. So, might be worth asking about electronic verification alternatives.
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    FAIRX added medallion guarantee requirements in the prospectus dated March 16, 2009. One can compare that with the March 31, 2008 prospectus that did not have those requirements.
    FAIRX went from $3.7B as of Nov 30, 2006 to $6.5B as of Nov 30, 2007 to $6.7B as of Nov 2008, to $8.2B as of May 31, 2009, to $10.6B as of Nov 30, 2009.
    Annual figures from 2010 prospectus
    May 2009 figure from 2009 semi-annual report
    There does not appear to have been a deep drawdown around the time the requirements were added. There were however at least a couple of other notable changes made that March.
    First, and my guess for why the policy was changed is that the fund changed distributors. For the past two years it had used Quasar Distributors (an affiliate of US Bancorp Fund Services). It switched to PFPC Distributors (an indirect subsidiary of PNC Financial Services Group).
    Second, the fund made a major change in investment policies regarding securities it could invest in. Previously it could invest "in securities of public companies including ... equity securities, such as common stocks, partnership interests, business trust shares, convertible securities, and rights and warrants [to purchase such securities]".
    After March 16 it would "achieve the Fund's investment objective by investing in a focused portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities." Emphasis added.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096344/000094040009000260/fairhm77q1.txt
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    @Hank. I own FAIRX. At some point, FAIRX changed the rules. For selling more than $50K worth of shares, FAIRX now requires a medallion signature (ONLINE transaction not via postal mail). I think this is from when people were pulling $$ out of FAIRX in drove (a long while ago when FAIRX went from I think $16-18 billions to $5 billions and now $1 billion). I am not happy with that rule. However, I stuck with FAIRX. Don't ask me why?
  • When to take Social Security
    "But why stress over that choice? Whats the + or - going to be, $10k, 20k, 30k maybe? A piddly amount in the scheme of things?"
    Here's a quick look at the magnitude of the risk, worst case. According to SSA, the average retiree monthly check (as of Dec 2020) is $1,544. That is likely less than what the average PIA (primary insurance amount - amount one would get at normal retirement age) is, because so many people take SS benefits early. For our back-of-the-envelope purposes, $1600 seems like a reasonable amount to use for the typical full retirement monthly benefit.
    Someone born in 1954 retiring in 2021 (age 67) would receive 108% of PIA if they started benefits at age 67, and 132% of PIA if they waited until age 70.
    https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/1943-delay.html
    https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/delayret.html
    So we can compare a benefit of $1728/mo for an extra 36 months to a benefit of $2112/mo starting at age 70. Worst case if delaying is 36 x $1728 = $62,208 (dying right before turning 70). If we use 100 years old as an upper bound on living, the "worst" case (living too long) of not delaying is:
    lost extra income over 30 years minus gained extra income over first three years =
    30 years x 12mo/year x ($2112 - $1728) - $62,208 = $138,240 - $62,208 = $76,032.
    That's about 2.5x as big a variation as suggested. But that's not the key point. The key point is that by deferring benefits risk of a lower cash flow in very old age is being reduced, and risk reduction has real value. At least for the risk averse.
    (FWIW, one of my grandparents lived to near 100, and while 1 in 4 aren't the best odds, it's enough to offer hope and for me to use age 100 for my own planning purposes.)
    In short, the piddly (or not so piddly) variation in possible legacies may pale in comparison to the value of the risk reduction achieved should one have the "bad luck" of living a long life.
  • Barron’s May 17 Issue - A few take-aways …
    image
    (No luck cutting and pasting this week. So here’s a few take-aways from this week’s Barrons.)
    - There’s a lot of inflation discussion in this week’s issue. Randall Forsyth covers the story in his weekly column, as do some other writers. “Year-over-year” the latest month’s inflation figure came in at +4.2%. One home builder is quoted as saying that he can no longer obtain a firm price on lumber he orders. Prices are rising so fast that the lumber company he deals with won’t commit to a firm price until the day of delivery.
    - The most recent U of M consumer confidence survey fell slightly. Barron’s attributes that to worries about inflation.
    - There’s also a lengthy article about some new ETFs that allow investors to hedge against bond interest rate risk via various approaches. Several are mentioned. (As discussed in another thread here, Price’s Dynamic Income fund, RPIEX attempts to do the same by selling bonds short.)
    - One knowledgeable fixed income trader describes TIPS as “very expensive” and advises against owning them.
    - Somewhat curiously, Forsyth devotes considerable space to PRPFX which he views as a possible haven in light of mounting inflationary pressures and distorted asset valuations. Forsyth briefly references manager Michael Cuggino’s views on the current financial backdrop.
    This seems like an exceptionally substantive issue, which I’ve only half read at best. The value to me of Barron’s is that it causes me to think a lot about different approaches to investing and different types of investments. Barron’s is not a “how to invest” or “what to buy” guide. Just a great thought provoker.
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    Thanks @Observant1. I don't think that was well explained last year when they moved the floor from 10% to 50%. I assumed that was a "permanent" change to the funds mandate. Being able to make a floor change like that, within 1 year, still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Their thematic approach is to adjust based on stock market valuation. Leave the floor at 10% and adjust per their value algorithms. Seems Columbia has over-complicated the funds philosophy IMHO.