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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • First Eagle Small Cap Opportunity Fund in registration
    One of their portfolio managers is interviewed in this week’s Barron’s.
    Since they like gold, I ran a comparison of their Global fund SGENX with PRPFX. At the 3 and 5 year point, PRPFX has the better performance record. At 10 years out they’re tied (8.5% annually). To a considerable extent this is comparing apples & oranges. But, considering the substantial difference in ER, I wouldn’t be encouraged to send First Eagle my money.
  • Morningstar Portfolio Manager: once AGAIN
    At the top of the M* home page:
    The site is experiencing issues with Portfolio Manager displaying duplicated holdings for funds. We are working on resolving the problem.
    Regarding the funky symbols - M* has internal symbols that it uses for, among other things, variable annuity "funds". If one puts them into Portfolio Manager or Instant X-Ray, one can get analytic information about the portfolios, even though there aren't fund pages for them.
    Instant X-Ray doesn't recognize STUSA05VHT, so I'm wondering if you transcribed it correctly.
  • Morningstar Portfolio Manager: once AGAIN
    Right. M* has (or had) a message posted today regarding the technical issue. I don’t run their portfolio analyzer - so can’t address that. But as for the basic (archaic) portfolio tracker, it’s proven highly reliable for me, despite today’s problem.
    I always maintain a backup tracker. (“Active Portfolio With Alerts”) I’ll link the Apple app for anyone interested. While it occasionally gets one NAV a bit off (usually citing the previous day’s close), I still love it for the way you can lay out several different portfolio sleeves - if that’s how you invest.
    I have their Ad-free Premium Plan for $29.99 yearly. Hard to complain.
    https://apps.apple.com/us/app/active-portfolio-with-alerts/id840058059
  • The Digital Dollar Project
    The Digital Dollar Project (Project) is a partnership between the Digital Dollar Foundation (Foundation), a not-for-profit organization, and Accenture (NYSE: ACN) to advance the exploration of a central bank digital currency (CBDC)—or a “digital dollar.” The purpose of the Project is to encourage research and public discussion on the potential advantages of a tokenized dollar, convene private sector thought leaders and actors, and propose possible models to support the public sector as it considers development, testing, and adoption of a CBDC. The Project seeks to advance the public interest by future-proofing the dollar for consumers and institutions across both domestic and global economies. Given the US dollar‘s status as the world’s primary reserve currency and exploration of CBDC by other national governments and stakeholder organizations, the Digital Dollar Project sees piloting a US digital dollar across a range of use cases as a critical and prudent initiative for the United States to begin now. The Project views the infrastructure underpinning the US dollar as a critically important public good and believes that upgrading this infrastructure will provide current and future generations enhanced flexibility, optionality, stability, and prosperity.
    Digital-Dollar-Project-Whitepaper
  • First Eagle Small Cap Opportunity Fund in registration
    Will check with other brokerages to see if this policy holds. Unless there is special arrangement to waive the 5.25% load, A shares carries load as indicated in the prospectus.
  • First Eagle Small Cap Opportunity Fund in registration
    Three classes offered in this fund:
    A share -for brokerages and advisors
    I share - for brokerages and advisors
    R5 shares - for tax-deferred accounts
    As I understand, First Eagle funds carry front-end load for individual investors. The load is waived or reduced when investment is done through an advisors. Does anyone know if there is another way to gain access as these funds as no-load fund?
  • Morningstar Portfolio Manager: once AGAIN
    Another day another Glitch
    Trying to combine to watch list portfolios at M*
    It duplicated all of the positions, doubling my new worth!
    And some of them have gibberish symbols STUSA05VHT
    I wonder what they did in the back office that caused this? Obviously their budget for retail investors has been gutted
  • DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund
    I agree with Sven that posts would be more helpful if they included some comment about why the poster found an article or fund interesting.
    carew388 identifies one of the first two questions I ask specifically about CEFs. The other is the amount of leverage, since CEFs are often highly leveraged. This information is easy to find ...
    Leverage is 20% (CEF Connect), and DLY started its short life with a nearly 10% premium before plunging in fall 2020 to a 10.5% discount (per M*) and then settling in to a "not substantial[]" discount still greater than any of the dozen other leveraged multisector funds in the CEF Connect database.
    Regarding Crash's concern about the frequency and certainty of dividends: there is little special about CEFs in this regard. OEF bond funds may declare dividends annually (e.g. LSGLX), quarterly (e.g. BEGBX), monthly (e.g. VTABX), or even oddly (e.g. FBIIX in April, June, Oct, Dec).
    With OEFs you are left "waiting around to see IF a quarterly dividend were declared." BEGBX "generally expects to pay distributions of substantially all of its income, if any, quarterly, but may pay less frequently" (per prospectus). In reality, it has paid income dividends only three times in the past five years!
    According to CEF Connect, DLY pays monthly, and is a managed payout fund that has paid the identical amount in each of the 11 months of its short lifetime.
    Little of this raw data says why one might be interested in this fund.
  • Most TIPS now have negative yields
    " In theory, negative yields could translate into returns if inflation climbs persistently in coming years."
    Those negative real yields are still going to be negative. If inflation runs at 2% so you get 2% added to the value of your TIPS annually, you have a security that's grown an extra 2%/year in nominal terms, but 0% extra in real terms. Your real return is unchanged. Same at 5% or any inflation rate.
    TIPS "win" with higher inflation primarily in the sense that they protect you against loss of value due to inflation, while "regular" (nominal rate) Treasuries lose value faster and faster as inflation climbs.
    If inflation runs exactly as priced into the market, TIPS should slightly underperform "regular" Treasuries, since you're paying a little for that inflation insurance. If inflation runs higher than is priced into the market, you win, but only relative to the "regular" Treasuries.
    A concern arises, however, when the [regular Treasury bond] investment earns 4% and inflation is running at 3%. This means that the real rate of return – the stated return minus inflation – is only 1%. A bond investor locks in the money for a period of time and commits to a specific income stream, but if he underestimates inflation, future proceeds from his investment may have less purchasing power.
    Unlike nominal bonds, TIPS are designed to offer a real rate of return and, hence, provide investors a certain amount of protection against inflation. By investing in TIPS, investors give up the certainty of a predictable income stream for the assurance that their investment will maintain its purchasing power in case of rising inflation. For that assurance, TIPS pay slightly lower interest rates than comparable maturity Treasury securities.
    https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/advice-products-and-services/investment-solutions/fixed-income/taxable-bonds/tips-treasury-inflation-protected-securities
    Again, the negative real rate comes from buying a bond for $105 that has a current face value of $100 and after a decade and inflation still has a real purchasing power of $100. The inflation adjustment protects against declining purchasing power of the $100; it doesn't protect against the $5 loss of value from buying at a premium.
  • Most TIPS now have negative yields
    @msf - You belong in the fixed income department at TRP or some other big player. :) Suspect your knowledge exceeds that of some who deal with these issues daily. Thanks. I’ll confess to a little “click-baiting” with my question about having negative interest subtracted from one’s TIPS fund. As you suggest, I think, it’s a possibility - though unlikely. More likely, I suspect, the “negative interest” might simply translate into a lower NAV. I wonder too whether some of the bigger players might “cover” negatively accrued interest should it be necessary in the same way they’ve propped up teetering money market funds in the past?
    The tax repercussions are fascinating. As I’m only using TIPS in a sheltered account, that’s not an issue for me. Like millions of others, I was drawn in the direction of TIPS earlier this year for the same reasons mentioned in the Barron’s excerpt below. Unlike some, I realized that not all TIPS are the same and that with longer dated TIPS there was a strong likelihood one could loose money as Treasury rates surged. Price’s longer duration TIPS fund, PRIPX, is off 0.61% YTD. Fortunately, the limited-term TIPS index fund I went with is slightly positive - but “nothing to write home about.” While on the subject, TLDTX carries a 0.22% ER, making it a decent choice for idle funds you don’t want to commit to equities or other riskier holdings.
    As the post has generated some interest among board members, I’m taking the liberty of quoting a longer (but abbreviated / edited) passage from the April 19 issue of Barrons :
    “Investors in search of ways to protect their income against inflation may need to look further than they think: The market created for that purpose may not be a great choice, for either income or returns ... Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, have attracted investor cash this year as investors bet that a mix of economic reopening and U.S. government stimulus will drive prices higher in the U.S. Funds investing in TIPS have seen 25 consecutive weeks of inflows from investors since October of last year ...
    “Their current yields should be a reason for caution among income investors in particular. At the moment, all TIPS maturities other than the 30-year offer negative yields. The 10-year TIPS note yields nearly minus 0.8%, the five-year note yields about minus 1.7%, and the two-year note yields minus 2.6% ... In theory, negative yields could translate into returns if inflation climbs persistently in coming years. But the trade isn’t a simple one. For it to pay off, there needs to be more inflation than the levels that are already priced into the market today.”

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/tips-for-investors-look-elsewhere-for-inflation-protection-51618572606
    Link may not work. Sometimes doing a search for the exact words in the excerpt will.
  • Counter Cyclical Indexing
    The biggest challenge for any investor involves aligning their tolerance for risk with the cyclical nature of the markets. Too many investors fail to balance their actual perception of risk with the way that the business cycle evolves as relative asset class risks change. A Counter-cyclical Indexing strategy can help us be er align the way investors perceive risk with the way we actually manage portfolios.
    Interesting approach to managing risk assets as their relative risk changes with the business cycle:
    Countercyclical-Indexing.pdf
  • Most TIPS now have negative yields
    "Anybody ever had their negative interest rate subtracted from a TIPS fund at the end of a month, quarter, year?"
    There's likely more wrapped up in that question than many realize. First a few basic attributes of TIPS: Even though TIPS are guaranteed to accumulate interest at a real rate of at least 1/8% (1/8% plus inflation adjustment), one can still buy TIPS yielding negative real rates. That's because TIPS can be sold above face value. For example, one might buy a 10 year TIPS at auction for $105. In 10 years, aside from inflation adjustments, it would pay 1.25% (10 x 0.125%) ignoring compounding but decline 5% in value - for a net negative real return.
    The key here is that the negative rates are YTM, not just interest. If a fund owned only the single TIPS described, its share price would decline over a decade from $105 to $101.25, ignoring tax quirks (more below). No magic, no interest subtracted.
    So far, I've been describing real rates and real returns. That's why I could simply disregard the inflation adjustment. It's that adjustment that "eliminates" the effect of inflation and leaves one with real rates. When we add in those adjustments, we usually get nominal rates that are positive.
    February's 12 month CPI increase was 1.7%, the March figure is 2.6%. Based on these figures, all TIPS currently have nominal positive yields. With that, most concerns about the mechanics of negative rates go away.
    Taxation of TIPS funds is where things get tricky. Even though TIPS don't pay out interest, they just accumulate it, the nominal interest is imputed. That means that somehow, a TIPS fund has to show that interest on your 1099-DIV. It does this by declaring dividends equal to the imputed interest. Remember, we're talking nominal interest, so this is generally a positive amount, even though the real return is negative.
    For investors who reinvest dividends, this is largely an exercise on paper. Like dividends of any fund, the share price of the fund drops when it goes ex-div, investors are credited with extra shares at the lower price, the IRS is happy, and no real money changes hands.
    For investors who take their dividends, the fund has to come up with real cash. That cash may come from dividends and interest of other securities, or in the case of a pure TIPS fund, the fund may have to sell off some securities to raise cash. Again, this is not really different from what any other fund does when it declares divs.
    The more interesting question, for which I still don't have an answer, is the one I think hank had in mind - what happens when the nominal, imputed interest is negative. That happens when the fixed rate (positive) plus a deflation adjustment comes out negative.
    For individual TIPS, you actually get to subtract that negative imputed interest from your income - but only to the extent that you'd previously imputed positive interest. (You get to carry over the remainder to use against future imputed interest.) See p. 3 of this paper on TIPS:
    https://www.wintrustwealth.com/sites/default/files/Wintrust Wealth Management/Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities_2018_0.pdf
    I have no idea what a fund is expected to report for negative imputed interest on your 1099, let alone what magic it could perform to create negative dividends.
    Correction TIPS do pay out their fixed rate amount, it is only the inflation adjustment that is accrued. The amount of fixed interest gradually increases, since is is based on a growing (in nominal terms) principal amount.
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    Bill Miller - Founder, Miller Value Funds
    “Some of the great investors of our time, Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, are gold bulls. Many people, if they're not gold bulls, they at least believe that it's possible inflation comes back with the Fed gunning the money supply here, and with more fiscal stimulus. I think it's reasonable to own gold.
    With respect to bitcoin...it's been a great month for bitcoin, but it's also been a great year, year to date, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, and then inception, bitcoin's inception was 12 years ago, and it's been the single best performing asset category in every one of those periods. Not that it hasn't had a bad time, it went from nearly $20,000 down to the $3000-$4000 range, so it's been very volatile. But I think right now it's staying power gets better every day. I think the risks of bitcoin going to zero are much much lower than they've ever been before. And you're getting greater adoption. I mean, you know, MicroStrategy put half their cash, $400mm into bitcoin. Paypal announced that people can buy bitcoin. Square had blow out numbers yesterday due to their sales and demand for bitcoin. And the bitcoin story is very easy, which is that its supply demand it's it's economics, not 101, point 01, which is that bitcoin's supply is growing at about 2.5% per year, and the demand is growing faster than that. And there's gonna be a fixed number of them. So I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is gonna eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what's like it.”
    6 Nov 2020
  • Most TIPS now have negative yields
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield
    Good article in this weeks Barrons. Key take-away is that even with the inflation adjustment, most investors today are likely to lose money owning TIPS. Linked chart begins at 5 years. But apparently even shorter TIPS obligations (1-3 years) carry negative yields.
    Anybody ever had their negative interest rate subtracted from a TIPS fund at the end of a month, quarter, year? Seems like that could happen ... I don’t pretend to understand them very well. Am dabbling a bit in TLDTX as a cash proxy and it’s slightly ahead YTD.
    *From linked page
    “Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates. These rates are commonly referred to as "Real Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or R-CMTs. Real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated by the U.S. Treasury from Treasury's daily real yield curve. These real market yields are calculated from composites of secondary market quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ...”
  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    @hank,
    thanks for asking, appreciate the question as it makes me think...
    I've always had the philosophy that one can hold opposing views concurrently. There is no law stating that you cannot, who says you have to pick a lane. I am inherently conservative, my parents were in Europe during WWII, saw first hand how your life can change on a dime and my Mom never liked the stock market, only CDs and MM's. My Dad was into Growth stocks, so I saw the balance of opposite views in my yute. I believe that most folks manage their monies similar to their parents as well as their eating habits etc.
    I myself was an extremely aggressive investor in my early 20's going into my mid 30s then saw the baloney that starting taking place in 03, 04' etc with the housing market and the "this is contained within the real estate market"..I knew with that quote to head for the hills. Had a very minimal drawdown in my portfolio then. Haven't really trusted the markets since and really don't trust it now.
    So the point of those stories is that I know I've been way too conservative but on the other hand so far I've generally kept my drawdowns to minimus and have slept fairly well at night. There are no gurantee's in life and anything can happen at any time. My whole philosophy is to limit drawdowns to a what is my own personal level which is mid single digits.
    There is a part of me who thinks the markets are an absolute joke and you would be a fool to have a majority of your life savings in them and then the other side who thinks well if the CBs (central banks) are building up their BS'(balance sheets) you'd be a fool not to play along with the subsequent asset inflation.
    I do hold a combo of mutual funds as well as a few individual stocks (HD, AWK, MSFT, ACN, TFX...) that I believe strongly in. Again, that is likely a things I picked up from my Dad who did that, he bought WMT stock years ago, yes, it has done well in the past 35 years and my Mom still owns it but had most of his monies in Fid Magellan, Selected American Shares, Growth mutual funds.
    On the same hand I do own mutual funds, more $ than monies in indvid stonks.
    PMEFX, ARTTX are some of them and lately been getting into FEVAX, no load, First Eagle US Value, likely going to get out of FPFIX, recent posting here made me recognize that I don't want to hold some of the underlying holdings of that fund.
    Like most others here state, it kinda works for me, I don't recommend this to anyone else and I am just posting for entertainment value.
    Good Luck and Good health to you Hank and all,
    Baseball Fan
  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    ” I am ~ 75% cash/CD/IBonds. Market just seems to me artificial...too much BS ...”
    Hmm .. @Baseball_Fan - A few days ago you sounded downright bullish. From your April 12 post (Thread: “Bond Duration Question”) - “On a side note...just increased my holdings in Home Depot to low six figures..”
    Just curious whether you own any mutual funds? Or are you 75% cash/CD/bonds and the remainder directly in stocks?
    Not nit-picking. Just trying to get a read on your methods so we all can learn from you.
  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    @dtconroe,
    Question for you...how do you know and how do you decide or put another way, when have you decided a black swan was coming and what did you do when you went totally to cash? What are your signals, technical? Wisdom/experience/gut feel?
    FWIW and I am not making recommendations to anyone but I am ~ 75% cash/CD/IBonds.
    Market just seems to me artificial...too much BS (balance sheet or bull sheet, use the term as you wish) of Central Banks.
    Also, what is very worrisome is just talked to my sister this morning who lives in Munich, they are having terrible time with Covid, quasi-lockdown everywhere, virus mutant very bad in England, but here in the large midwest city, restaurants are packed, many not wearing masks, parties going on, "older" folks who have gotten vaccine feel invincible, folks all talking about where they are going to fly to on vacation in a few months...very concerning...but on the other hand, lot of vaccination going on too...who knows?
    I just hope that we did not open up too early after Orange Man bad left office and now it is going to all be kumbaya.
    Let's hope for all our sakes it all works out for the best.
    Good Luck and good health to you and to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    My wife and I maintain a HY Checking account, maintaining a balance in the $10k to $15K range. We also maintain about 10% of our taxable brokerage account in bond oefs, that have a solid history of making more interest/total return than a standard banking account, with a strong downmarket performance history. We can sell those brokerage assets quickly, and transfer them to our HY Checking Account in 2 to 3 days. We usually stay fully invested, except for those Black Swan periods, where we may go totally to cash and wait for good re-entry opportunities.