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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Disappointed Vanguard Brokerage
    I would recommend that you check online frequently regardless what Vanguard says the available date. Often I get mine a week or two ahead of the actual dates. You can download the 1099-DIV right away. By that time your tax would be done before the paper copy arrives.
  • Disappointed Vanguard Brokerage
    After spending hours trying to reach Vanguard telephone support earlier this year and thinking this is as bad as it gets, I now found out that Vanguard brokerage won't send me my 1099-DIV till March 15-17 which is NOT acceptable. I have already received all my 1099-DIVs by mid February. Apparently I fall in 1099-consolidated (group 3) which means 1099-DIV will be available online March 15-17. Anyone else falls in the same bucket? Anyone else angry about that?
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/taxes/investment-tax-forms
  • “Why Stocks Rebounded After Russia Invaded Ukraine” (WSJ Opinion & Analysis)
    @LewisBraham, agree with your thoughts, investments might be leaving intl/EM into US Blue Chips...
    What are your thoughts re derivatives of that thinking....things could easily go wacko doodle pertaining to Russia/Ukraine/West...get even more insane etc...wouldn't then folks be selling said US Blue Chips bigly due to everyone bailing out of SPY ETFs...easier to sell those due to potential liquidity issues and run to US long bond Treasuries.... and food commodities, wheat, strong dollar/weak Euro, etc??
    Maybe US long bond as a safety play...maybe "clean energy" bounces up hard...should be obvious that the world needs more energy and that it likely, might not come from Russia anymore?
    What if Putin antes up the the crazy factor...who is going to do what then? Put their own country at risk of annihilation...he might test the resolve of the West...
    Let's hope that we are still talking about whether the Fed raises by a 1/4 or 1/2 or nothing over the next few weeks and not talking about market circuit breakers instead...
    Baseball Fan
  • Thoughts On The Market
    unfortunately, Grantham is wrong since 2010 and that's a long time
    (link)
    This is fantastic !
    ty
  • “Why Stocks Rebounded After Russia Invaded Ukraine” (WSJ Opinion & Analysis)
    (A few of the key points from a rather lengthy WSJ article - Author: James Mackintosh.)
    Lead / Opening question:
    “Russia invaded Ukraine to start the biggest land war in Europe since Hitler. U.S. stocks soared. What gives? It isn’t that Wall Street secretly loves Vladimir Putin. A close look at the market’s performance on Thursday shows the reality: U.S. equities had a near-perfect reverse of what had been going on this year. It was a great stock-market switcheroo. Stock gains continued on Friday in the U.S. and elsewhere, with Russian shares leaping by a fifth in ruble terms. But it was Thursday’s move that set the tone, and which was so extraordinary on the day Ukraine was invaded… Quite why is less clear, but I have theories …
    Possible factors leading to the reversal:
    - “Sentiment was depressed, and a moment of panic-selling hit when the market opened, with the CBOE Vix index of implied volatility hitting its highest opening level since 2020 …
    - “Attributed to legendary banker Nathan Mayer Rothschild: ‘Buy on the sound of cannon, sell on the sound of trumpets.’ When fear dominates, it’s time to buy, and many did.
    - “Investors were already so worried that it didn’t take much to hit rock-bottom and so rebound. The regular American Association of Individual Investors survey this week found the highest proportion of self-described bears in almost a decade, and close to the lowest proportion of bulls.
    - “Last week’s Investors Intelligence examination of newsletter writers found bearish sentiment almost equal to bullish for the first time since the March 2020 selloff. And a 10-day smoothed measure of investor opinion from the options market showed the equal-highest proportion of buying of bearish puts (used to protect from falls) to bullish calls (used to bet on rising stock prices) since shortly after the pandemic panic began.”

    - There’s also some mention that the sanctions against Russian gas and oil exports (primarily to Western Europe) weren’t as harsh as first expected and are less likely to inflict economic damage.
    - Elsewhere (WSJ and this week’s Barron’s) there is speculation that the crisis may cause the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of interest rate hikes in coming months - a positive for equities.
    All of the above notwithstanding, I thought commentary overall in both the WSJ and Barron’s on Saturday leaned somewhat towards the bearish camp with one newsletter cited in Barron’s advising its readers to “pile up cash”.
    Excerpts from: The Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2022 / Here’s a link; but you’ll likely need a subscription to access.
  • Thoughts On The Market
    Following discussion with much interest. It occurs to me that while Grantham may or may not be 100% “correct”, his views can be included as part of one’s ongoing thought process and help us arrive at intelligent decisions. Had a wonderful college class in the late 60s where much attention was paid to “synthesizing” - forming judgements from different, sometimes contrasting opinions or observations.
    “Synthesis suggests the ability to put together separate ideas to form new wholes of a fabric, or establish new relationships: putting together ideas and knowledge in a new and unique form. Can build a structure or pattern from diverse elements, potentially creating new meanings.”
    If interested, link below will pull up a cool diagram (and discussion) of Bloom’s ctitical thinking hierarchy. Double-click on illustration to highlight.
    LINK to Source.
    unfortunately, Grantham is wrong since 2010 and that's a long time (link)
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    well, not in writing, but it is long understood even beyond what you write about corruption (which has been waning significantly)
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-05/explainer-ukraine-not-joining-nato-so-why-does-putin-worry
    his whole shtick is built on delusion, not that that's uncommon:
    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/23/22945781/russia-ukraine-putin-speech-transcript-february-22
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    +1.
    I don't bet uncle Vlad the P.O.S. will ever get that promise from NATO. Mearsheimer is spot-on in terms of Realpolitik. Meanwhile, "under the table," the allies are agreeing not to admit Ukraine into NATO until there is a big sea-change, a regime change in terms of the ubiquitous corruption in that country. Ukraine is the victim in the present circumstance, it's true. Support with weapons and planes and choppers from other countries is justified in their attempt at self-defense. I've seen a couple of news reports today saying they have met with some success at repelling the Russkies. I cannot help but to hope they are successful. An invasion is an invasion. And it sucks.
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    That's from 2015, mind you...
    This is dismaying reading from a few weeks ago:
    "Mearsheimer said that the U.S. had led Ukrainians 'down the primrose path,' angering the Russians and giving Moscow 'all sorts of incentives to wreck Ukraine as a country,' without committing to protecting it. 'The only way this can be resolved is with the U.S. and NATO saying that Ukraine will not become part of NATO,' Mearsheimer said. 'The Russians want it in writing. And I think this crisis will go away once this happens.'"
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-new-doves-on-ukraine
    I wonder if he has turned up or will turn up on TV this weekend.
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    >> 1619 project, CRT etc...I'll just say I disagree with your leftist progressive thinking and posted articles
    Har. You literally do not know what you're talking about with respect to my "thinking," but haven't we had this ignorant exchange already?
    Unless maybe you think it's "leftist-prog" to point out Vietnam War as mistaken enormity, inequality as harmful in several ways, and so on, in which case dozens of polls would show your labeling error.
    My "posted articles" are of others' macroeconomic analyses, generally. You should explain your disagreements with them, to enlighten us all.
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    >> a special place where ideologies could co-exist and clash
    Well, sure. The complete opposite of Hillsdale.
    >> Westmoreland debated with an audience of antiwar protesters and Vietnam Vets
    Yup. Those were the days.
    For all the good it did.
    What a hapless death-dealing schmuck he was.
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/todays-list-the-top-ten-reasons-gen-westmoreland-lost-the-war-in-vietnam/
    And the entire hugely destructive misadventure built and rebuilt on lies, again and again. Jeez.

    45 minutes, plus Q and A.
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    Well,
    I would say it depends on how much your portfolio value is, no? I would think if you had for convo's sake, over $5-10MM or even $500k, maybe 20% would be the most I would be comfortable with in one fund, diverse holdings as it might hold regardless.
    I seem to recall someone here stating a friend of their's had all their monies in was it Blackrock Global Allocation MALOX, fund and was way comfortable with it. Thinking was it was hands off, was diversified, US/Intl, Stonk, Bonds etc.
    Also remember reading an article way back in IBD Investors Bidness Daily about that, just keep adding to one diversified fund and keep going...
    When I was a yute, I had 5 stonks I started with, Raytheon, Kellogg, Coca Cola, Merck and Walmart...I haven't looked but if I just stayed with those 5 over the past call it close to 40 years, prolly would have done alright.
    But ya, PRWCX, darn good place to put your monies.
    Dangerous times indeed, cannot believe how many thinks what is going on in Ukraine is just some event that won't affect our markets and our way of life for years to come.
    BTW...@davidmoran...don't even get me started on 1619 project, CRT etc...I'll just say I disagree with your leftist progressive thinking and posted articles and leave it at that...and see you at the polls this autumn...
    Best Regards to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • Thoughts On The Market
    @johnN Better keep track of things on an hourly basis if you want to invest in Russia. If you're not willing to invest at least 5% of a portfolio for a meaningful return, you're only playing, yes? Why bother.
    Germany announced at 1:15 pm, EST; that it is in agreement of use, in some form, of the SWIFT system against Russia.
    And there is already blood in the streets, literally.
    SWIFT international banking system
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    >> a special place where ideologies could co-exist and clash
    Well, sure. The complete opposite of Hillsdale.
    >> Westmoreland debated with an audience of antiwar protesters and Vietnam Vets
    Yup. Those were the days.
    For all the good it did.
    What a hapless death-dealing schmuck he was.
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/todays-list-the-top-ten-reasons-gen-westmoreland-lost-the-war-in-vietnam/
    And the entire hugely destructive misadventure built and rebuilt on lies, again and again. Jeez.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    @MikeM, the monthly asset snapshot data presented included changes from price declines and asset outflows.
    But ICI also has data on monthly (and weekly) fund flows. For January, there were outflows from all broad categories of mutual funds. The picture for ETFs is different as there is some secular shift going on from mutual funds to ETFs.
    Mutual Funds (Monthly) https://www.ici.org/research/stats/trends_01_22
    ETFs (Monthly) https://www.ici.org/research/stats/etf/etfs_01_22
    Mutual Funds & ETFs (Weekly) https://www.ici.org/research/stats/combined_flows
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative)
    1/31/22
    There is a noticeable decrease in stock allocations. These are gross industry statistics and even small shifts mean billions.
    OEFs: Stocks 53.6%, Hybrids 7.0%, Bonds 21.4%, M-Mkt 18.0%
    ETFs: Stocks 82.0%, Hybrids 0.6%, Bonds 17.4%, M-Mkt N/A
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.6%, Hybrids 5.7%, Bonds 20.5%, M-Mkt 14.2%
    LINK
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    How about 93%?
    Not advocating our method for everyone by any means but the KISS method is working great for us. Tried diversifying into other allocation funds back in 2011 after first investing in PRWCX in 2006 and all that did was cost us money!
    Maxed out our 2022 ROTH IRA contributions this past Wednesday 2/23 and purchased more TRAIX.
  • Observations from Schwab
    @Catch22 - Thanks for tracking it down. Yup, that’s the one that appeared in my mail late Thursday. Guess they really wanted to really “drive the message home” - as the message appears to reside inside the title. Perhaps the reason I didn’t bother to open.
    “Investors should stay calm despite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
    Will say I did a small amount of buying, adding to a couple stocks, around 9:30 - 10 AM. Fido’s site seemed unusually slow. I suspected than many were either rushing to buy or to sell. May have prompted their decision to send out the message.
    If folks missed this … At the start of trading Thursday, the DJI was off around 750-800 points. Gold had tacked on $65 overnight. Oil was breaking above $100, T Bond yields were falling sharply. By day’s end, things had reversed. Gold actually ended down $35 or more.
    Have a pleasant weekend.
  • Can you have too much PRWCX?
    +1 david Good point on Giroux - if a Michigan native he could have attended any of the numerous state universities, including UM, MSU and WMU that would have easily met his academic needs including a lower tuition !
    But would it have met his spiritual / cultural / political needs?
    Anyone who went to that unusual place in the later 1990s (much less since) knew what they were in for, even as the comical Trumpy 1619-reaction '1776 curriculum' (https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/21/trump-ally-1619-project-500464; https://k12.hillsdale.edu/Curriculum/The-Hillsdale-1776-Curriculum/) and the even more comical 'National Survey on Socialism' (https://lp.hillsdale.edu/2019-national-survey-on-socialism/) lay in the future. (The latter is wild; check it out.)
    The policy to take no federal funds, so as not to be subject to anti-discrimination regs, among other reactionary reactions, was in effect when he was there (https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/07/the-controversial-reason-some-religious-colleges-forgo-federal-funding/490253/)