Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Understanding Tail Risk
    Great explanation of Musk sales
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/authors/ARbTQlRLRjE/matthew-s-levine?cmpid=BBD111121_MONEYSTUFF&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=211111&utm_campaign=moneystuff&sref=OzMbRRMQ
    Copied below if interested if you cannot open paywall
    Oh Elon
    Well here you go sure sure sure:
    Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk unloaded $5 billion of stock in the electric-car maker, shortly after restoking a social media debate over the tax treatment of billionaires’ shareholdings.
    The world’s richest person so far has disposed of more than 4.5 million shares this week, according to regulatory filings. Those were his first sales in more than five years.
    Musk, who frequently stokes controversy on Twitter, created a firestorm over the weekend with a survey asking whether he should sell part of his Tesla stake. While he portrayed his proposal as having to do with debate over the ultra-wealthy avoiding taxes, the filings released Wednesday show some of the transactions were pre-arranged in mid-September -- weeks before the poll. He also didn’t mention in the tweets that he has millions of stock options that must be exercised before next August, when they expire.
    There are two sets of sales. On Monday, he exercised 2.15 million stock options that were granted in 2012, paying about $13.4 million to acquire 2.15 million shares; then he sold 934,091 of those shares for about $1.1 billion. The Form 4 disclosures for the exercise and sales are here and here. Footnote 1 of each of Musk’s Form 4s says: “The transactions reported on this form 4 were automatically effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan previously adopted on September 14, 2021 and established by the reporting person for the purpose of an orderly sale of shares related to the exercises of options scheduled to expire in 2022.” Actually it says that in all caps. I like my readers so I rendered it in sentence case for readability, but now I’m going to say it again in all caps, for accuracy but also for emphasis: “THE TRANSACTIONS REPORTED ON THIS FORM 4 WERE AUTOMATICALLY EFFECTED PURSUANT TO A RULE 10B5-1 TRADING PLAN PREVIOUSLY ADOPTED ON SEPTEMBER 14, 2021 AND ESTABLISHED BY THE REPORTING PERSON FOR THE PURPOSE OF AN ORDERLY SALE OF SHARES RELATED TO THE EXERCISES OF OPTIONS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE IN 2022.”
    On Tuesday and Wednesday, he sold a total of about 3.6 million of the 170.5 million shares that he already owned (i.e. not shares subject to options), for proceeds of about $3.9 billion. There are a bunch of Form 4s for these sales (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here).[1] They do not mention a prearranged 10b5-1 plan; presumably he decided to sell them this week, and then did.
    Some background. First, in September, a few weeks after he put this Rule 10b5-1 plan in place, he said publicly at a conference that “a huge block of options will sell in Q4 — because I have to or they’ll expire.”[2] He has 22,862,050 options in the tranche set to expire next August; he exercised 2.15 million of them on Monday, leaving him with about 20.7 million options in that “huge block” that he plans to “sell in Q4.”
    Second, this past Saturday, Musk tweeted a poll. “Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance,” he wrote, “so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock. Do you support this?” In a second tweet, he said “I will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes.” The poll closed on Sunday, with 57.9% of the votes in favor of Musk selling 10% of his stock.
    It is not clear what “10% of my Tesla stock” means. At the time of the poll, Musk owned about 170.5 million shares of Tesla stock. But he was also, for legal purposes, the “beneficial owner” of another 73.5 million shares underlying options; Tesla’s filings show him owning 244 million shares. So if Musk were to sell 10% of his stock that would mean selling somewhere between 17 million and 24 million shares, give or take.
  • This Risk Free Bond Now Pays 7.12%
    @msf
    I am not advocating setting up an LLC for I bonds alone, unless you live in a state where there is no annual fee for the LLC. Even then the legal fees and accounting are probably not worth it for the ability to invest another $10,000 in I bonds.
    To pay expenses out of the LLC you have to have cash in the LLC, and you indicate, a profit after expenses, at least in most years.
    I have not set up a sole proprietorship with a separate tax ID, but if this is feasible and as easy as you say, getting the additional TIN would allow you to buy more I bonds. IT will be at least five years before you can realize any return however without an interest penalty.
  • Inflation
    +1 mikem I've cut back on PTIAX and added assets to TRBUX RPHYX PEGAX and SQIFX These 4 are better than earning 1 basis point in my Fido money market account.
  • Large Cap Ideas
    Looks like Summit Program to buy closed funds starts at 250k, which is a great deal more reasonable than Vanguard's 1 million level for extra perks !
  • Large Cap Ideas
    Stillers, Thanks for the feedback - Definitely buying PRWCX regardless...my wife has owned it as her sole holding in her Roth IRA for 15 years.
    I'll wait for additional thoughts...
  • Any thoughts on ASML?
    @BenWP- Yes sir, that's what I'm thinking also. I'm not worried about the current swings. If it should happen to drop below my $700/710 entry point I'll just buy a bit more.
  • Inflation
    Howdy all,
    @hank is spot on. Most of the world is skewering the Fed. However, they are one of the principal culprits. Inflation will be with us for a longer period than transitory. Shadow stats has it using the pre-1980 methodology around 14%.
    Some of the issues will go away with more vaccinations around the world. Decriminalizing pot at the Federal level would take care of the truck driver situation. The CDL (Commerical Drivers License) is zero tolerance and drivers are subject to random testing. Pot has a half life of around 30 days. Removing it from the Schedule 1 drug list would probably change it on the CDL and ease that problem until the robots take over.
    The wage push aspect of inflation is real and getting worse. This is what is going to prolong the high inflation environment. You all see the Hiring signs and have seen some of the offers being made to get staff. Many businesses and institutions are reducing their hours due to staff, Covid, etc. The General Employment strike is real and having a major impact. The suggestion had been to raise the minimum wage to $15 and index it to inflation. As I type, this is almost a fait accompli. I've seen and heard of some fairly obscene raises . . . and that's good. I worry most about the restaurants. I have no idea how they're going to cope with wages, cost of goods, energy costs vis-a-vis menu prices. This idiocy of paying tipped staff a sub minimum wage is stale and only exists to keep menu prices low as you pay extra to the waiter/waitress. Rubbish. I tip a lot of people that I do business with - barber, mail lady, etc. And this is in huge reason why they can't get staff. Not enough pay for what can be a fairly miserable job. We'll see various attempts at new business models, but it looks to me like it's double the menu prices if you want traditional sit-down restaurant.
    As for the market, gee, the miners and pm's are showing some life, but who knows if it will last. Perhaps while there is a significant sense of inflation. It's a fairly easy sector to run a momentum play. Here's the sand box if you want to get crazy.
    http://www.kitcosilver.com/equities.html
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • Inflation
    Chris Hayes's take:
    The entire economy feels a bit like the moment a big concert or playoff game ends and everyone's trying to get out of the parking lot. "Transitory" can last a maddeningly long time, but the conditions that produce it are, indeed, temporary not structural.
    A significant percentage (2 points maybe) is gasoline, some argue.
    Interesting thread on other variables:
    https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1458568877479055366
  • Inflation
    Nice morning update @hank. I think the only significant green I saw yesterday was my gold and silver ETFs. Inflation hedges.
    As far as bonds go, I know there are many here that don't feel any change is needed in their portfolio, but I've worked to eliminate most of my categorized bond funds through 2021. I'm holding short and ultra short funds in my safe (withdrawal) bucket but no bond mutual funds of any kind in my main self managed portfolio. I guess after a couple years of the boy calling wolf many think bonds will continue to do just fine. I'm not one of those people.
    Good luck. I think 2022 may be a very interesting year.
  • Large Cap Ideas
    At some point, we all overthink our investment choices and I'm bouncing this idea off of the MFO folks to provide me some reasoning/guidance.
    In my Rollover where 60% of my retirement assets currently sit, I have a healthy, diversified portfolio. In particular, I spread my Large Cap OEF's across Growth, Blend/Core and Value. I consider style, overlap, cost, holdings, Up/Down, SD and Beta. Currently I have the following - HCAIX (Growth), PRDGX (Blend), HCMAX (Value).
    TRP has a new Summit 'program' that kicks off on Nov. 15th and part of that is existing clients with a certain asset level will be able to purchase closed OEF's. I'd like to buy PRWCX and use it as a Allocation/Tactical sleeve in my Rollover. I know it's not considered 'tactical' but Giroux successfully moves to all types of investments beyond the atypical equity/fixed income in a tactical fashion.
    Here is the potential overthinking - Should I add this and keep the PRDGX position? The Equity sleeve of PRWCX(50-70%) is typically invested in Core/Blend style box...there are also approx 20 holdings that overlap with PRDGX. I recognize that's the overthinking part and not a big deal but it's something I always review.
    Would you use PRWCX as an allocation/tactical play and add it or replace PRDGX? I also own BCOIX and PRSNX as my fixed income investments.
  • Inflation
    Not directly related ... But the “talking heads” this morning (Bloomberg) appear to be on steroids. Or maybe caffeine overdose? “Primal screaming” cited by one re yesterday’s trading. LOL
    What happened yesterday?
    - 30 year treasury bond came to life and bounced significantly higher. But is still under 2%. Interest sensitive intermediate-term (and longer) bond funds took a small hit. Mine were off between .33 & .50%. Looks like the less creditworthy issues held up somewhat better.
    - “Dots” not yet connected by the pundits ... with the U.S. bond market closed today, some of the interest rate momentum upward yesterday was in anticipation of not being able to trade today - and with equity markets open.
    - The more aggressive equity growth funds seemed to get hit hardest - although TSLA gained 4% following a recent 10% down day. TRBCX dropped 1.4% as one example. Precious metals and miners spiked.
    - For once, movement across asset / fund classes in my portfolio was similar - with the moderate growth portion losing .40%, The investment grade paper was off .20%. The 3 alternatives combined fell about .30% in combination.
    - HSGFX gained .49% putting it about break-even for the year.(I don’t own it.).
    - To the crux of the OP, it’s probably a combination of baked-in inflation and transitory coming from temporary supply / labor shortages. I’m not expecting 6+ % annual “official” inflation over the next few years (using CPI figures). Admittedly, a fool’s errand to try and predict what inflation will be in the next 1-3 years.
    - TAIL, which I’ve owned only a few weeks, has around 90% in LT treasuries and most of the remainder in “puts” on selected components of the S&P - if I understand correctly. That’s why it struggled yesterday, losing about a half percent. Time will tell how much of a drag that bond exposure is during major downturns. I view it as a short - intermediate term hedge. Could “screw the pooch” with this one. :)
    - TMSRX held its own. Lost a penny or two.
    - PRWCX held up remarkably well (-.42%). Giroux’s high cash level and avoidance of long term bonds paid off.
    - Miners look hot again today. Up around 2% in pre-markets. Can flip on a dime. The more broadly based miners (like NGLOY) are screaming hot this morning.
    - DKNG? / NY State granted it permission to operate in the state along with 5-6 competing outfits. But revenue will be taxed at 51%. I guess the news broke Friday, the same day I unloaded my small spec position. Looks like it’s off between 5-8% since than.
  • Inflation
    "The narrow issue of whether this inflation is in any meaningful sense 'transitory' has now been settled.
    It isn’t. Now for the much tougher questions of how long it will last, how bad it will be, and what to do about it."

    Link
  • Any thoughts on ASML?
    Found this excerpt in 11/9/21 WSJ titled, "Semiconductor Industry Isn’t Spending Big on Scarce Old-Tech Chips."
    The article mentions that ASML is the only producer of the industry’s most advanced lithography equipment, is fully booked through the start of 2023.
    ASML closed down $32.20 to $817.85 this evening.
  • The Federal Reserve November 2021 Financial Stability Report
    PDF
    "In doing their outreach to "domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others" (financial and business sector actors), most respondents were concerned with the interactions of several categories of risk:
    ° a worsening of the pandemic,
    ° a sudden surge in interest rates,
    ° a significant reduction in the pace of the ongoing economic recovery,
    ° risks emanating from China, other EMEs, and Europe."
  • Understanding Tail Risk
    CEOs of other high flying stocks are also selling. Evidently, AMC CEO sold 1/4th of his holding and has filed to sell another 1/4th.