Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    “These days, a typical core-plus bond fund can have up to 35% in below investment-grade bonds.”
    I think it’s the trend towards assuming more risk rather than any particular asset class or investor that’s brought to the forefront by the WSJ article. If this is part of a broader national trend across different types of investors - both institutional and individual - than we may be setting up for significant liquidity issues and outsized losses next time around.
    Oppenheimer, while an exception, wrote the book on how not to run a Core Bond Fund. In 2008 theirs lost 41%, while their “Champion Bond Fund” did substantially worse.
    Brings to mind that old adage about “What’s in a name … ?”
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    Silent consfication thru silent tax called inflation take from producers and those who work
    And what do you call it when companies extract ever-increasing profits from their employees for forty years without paying them a living wage while their CEOs make over 300 times their lowest paid workers? The minimum wage has actually fallen when adjusted for inflation since the 1980s while stock profits have soared. If we are experiencing wage inflation now, so be it.
  • WordPress Security Breach & MFO
    Hi, all.
    A few pieces of information that I hope are helpful -
    Our regular website does indeed run on WordPress, however, we do not use GoDaddy for hosting. So far as I know, the Mutual Fund Observer site has not been breached. I added the "So far as I know," because in most cases, a company's security has been breached for a period of time before they realize it.
    This discussion board does not run through WordPress. It uses an open-source software called Vanilla Forums, which is not nearly so big a target as WordPress. Your password here never gets stored in WordPress.
    That said, no site is ever safe from compromise. The advice from @JonGaltIII is spot on. 1. Use a password manager.
    2. Do not recycle the same password over and over on multiple sites.
    3. Use Two Factor Authentication whenever you're sharing personal or financial information.
    4. Despite the convenience, don't allow shopping sites to store your credit card information if that's an option.
    Happy holidays and stay safe!
    Chip
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    +1 Lewis 100% correct with regard to your last sentence !
  • jobless claims latest weekly number: link to news story
    this is pretty SOMETHING. Even though it will be adjusted and re-worked and adjusted and twisted and manipulated countless times...
    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/24/jobless-claims-unemployment-benefits-drop-523293
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    Maybe better off 85% tbills and 15% Bitcoin?
    Article is frightening to say the least
    Where are the adults at the Fed, White House and Treasury?
    Play stupid games win stupid prizes?
    Baseball Fan
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    “U.S. life insurers are backing Americans’ policies with bigger slugs of riskier, higher-yielding investments. Holdings of real estate, below-investment-grade bonds, mortgage loans, private equity, hedge funds, limited partnerships and privately placed debt increased 39% from 2015 to 2020, outpacing the 26% increase in total cash and invested assets, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service. As a result, these so-called illiquid assets represented about 35% of insurers’ $4.04 trillion in investments as of Dec. 31, 2020, up from 32% out of $3.2 trillion in 2015.”
    (Move to riskier assets may impact market liquidity - more evident during times of stress.)
    Excerpt from WSJ (11/24/2921) - https://www.wsj.com/articles/life-insurers-use-riskier-assets-to-back-consumers-policies-11637663580 - Subscription Required
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    I have an update on PDI in the M* link above.
    "PDI is starting to look interesting. It is under pressure from the upcoming merger and tax-loss selling. I am watching $24-25 area in trading ahead of Friday, December 10 merger date (PKO and PCI will fold into PDI). This is the end of convergence theme on them that has been in play since 2016.
    My usual caution on the understated leverage for CEFs applies. So, the stated leverage for PDI is 41.23% that is debt/total assets. But the PDI holders experience 70.15% that is debt/net assets, or 1.7015x that is the ratio of total assets/net assets.
    PDI at Stockcharts https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PDI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07707774075
    PDI at CEFConnect https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/PDI "
  • Small-caps at all?
    @gk3105gklm : It seems you only listed 7. Do you equal weight your small caps ?
    Gobble gobble, Derf
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    BAMBX has SD of 4.6% (high). Turnover of 500% is high, so is ER. About 11% in stocks, rest in bonds & others (probably convertible). Don't treat is as cash or CD proxy.
  • Small-caps at all?
    I owned MSSMX WAMCX until the end of the last cycle. I consider them the ex-champ. In small cap space, I own 8 including CSMVX AFDVX FCPGX FSCRX, favorite 3 are CSMVX AFDVX FSCRX. Here are stat from Marketwatch:
    1 week 13 week YTD 1 year 3 year
    CSMVX (3.43) 12.69 41.30 56.26 31.75
    MSCFX (2.08) 4.96 25.58 33.62 14.40
    WAMCX (6.04) (0.85) 8.90 20.32 34.38
    MSSMX (9.21) (13.09) 5.57 32.28 51.53
    FCPGX (5.32) 2.12 14.51 25.55 25.70
    AFDVX (0.79) 14.42 45.17 54.29 24.72
    FSCRX (0.47) 6.01 35.29 40.96 19.55
    Good luck everyone.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    It seems if you go short PDI and long on PCI for the same notional amount, you are guaranteed to make 1.5% (not annualized) in three weeks.
  • Barron's
    “ … I used to subscribed to it for over quite awhile until the Great Recession where I found Barrons completely missed several signs leading to the great decline.”
    I’d concur with @Sven that Barron’s is not a particularly good barometer / predictor of major changes in market direction or sentiment. Their “Commodities Corner” bear call on gold around the 2000 -2002 period stands out in particular. Within a few weeks of the very bearish call, gold took off on a tear going from under $300 to an intermediate term peak of $700-$800 in just a few short years.
    But Barron’s is really a compilation of many different market assessments. A careful reading will reveal these. Their weekly “Market View” column (Formerly called “Quoth the Mavens”) pulls excerpts from an assortment of current financial newsletters. Often, these will contradict one another. Yet a perceptive reader may draw some reasonable inferences. Weekly columnist Randall Forsyth may fall short of being “profound” in assessing market direction or valuation - but provides an intriguing skeptic’s eye toward many financial issues - particularly keen on assessing retail investor sentiment I think.
    I’ve purchased 3 or 4 stocks over the past year based on Barron’s recommendations. All did well. Today I sold one, NGLOY, after a quick 14% run-up since they recommended it roughly 2 months ago. Still like it - but have been trimming risk wherever I can of late. So, based on some very limited experience buying their picks, I’ll guess they’re probably right more often than wrong on those recommendations.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    There are discussions on the merger of PKO and PCI into PDI at other sites. This has been a long convergence theme with the merger finally effective on December 10, 2021 (about 3 weeks). https://community.morningstar.com/s/feed/0D53o00005UznTdCAJ
  • Small-caps at all?
    Sorry... I didn't complete my sentence. Was interrupted. Ignore my comment on reversion. Cursory glance at life perf. of some of the SC was interesting but not meaningful given variable time periods of life.
    CSMVX +13.09
    FCPGX +13.71
    BRUSX +13.74
    MSSMX +13.83
    MSCFX: +15.38 and the lowest ER of the list.
  • WordPress Security Breach & MFO
    A hacker was able infiltrate GoDaddy's WordPress provisioning system using a compromised password.
    These are the consequences and actions taken as of 11/22/2021.
    Upon identifying this incident, we immediately blocked the unauthorized third party from our system.
    Up to 1.2 million active and inactive Managed WordPress customers had their email address and customer number exposed. The exposure of email addresses presents risk of phishing attacks.
    The original WordPress Admin password that was set at the time of provisioning was exposed.
    If those credentials were still in use, we reset those passwords.
    For active customers, sFTP and database usernames and passwords were exposed.
    We reset both passwords.
    For a subset of active customers, the SSL private key was exposed.
    We are in the process of issuing and installing new certificates for those customers.
    Our investigation is ongoing and we are contacting all impacted customers directly with specific details.
    This was a serious breach for GoDaddy.
    Their security team, an independent IT forensics firm, and law enforcement are still investigating.
    Hopefully, the culprit(s) will be brought to justice and prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
  • Small-caps at all?
    1Q2020, CSMVX lost less than FPACX OAKBX , for example, so even though different investment objectives, impressive performance for a small cap growth fund !