Call it confirmation bias, but I generally agree with Clements. At least a couple of years ago I wondered (and posted) whether low rates coupled with interest rate risk rendered the value of bonds over cash dubious. I've written favorably about Buffett's propsed allocation, 10% short term (effectively cash), 90% equities. Though I disagreed with his singleminded focus on the S&P 500. This cash/equity approach is also essentially Evensky's 1985 two bucket strategy.
Figuring on a 4% withdrawal rate, the 10% cash could buffer a bear market taking 2.5 years to recover. Clements suggests 25% cash, or around a 6 year buffer. I might split the difference and put half of that 25% in cash, half in vanilla bonds, figuring that the bonds will do better even with modestly rising interest rates, if one waits 3 years or more.
As Clements noted, the expectation value of SS is greater if one delays taking benefits. This is especially true if one is focused on one's own lifetime and not on legacies. If one has a financial need for monthly checks before age 70, one can fill the gap with a temporary life annuity.
Which brings us to annuities. Dr. Wade Pfau says much the same thing as Clements - that the lower the current interest rates, the bigger the bargain annuities are, thanks to mortality credits. "Essentially, while the cost of funding retirement with an annuity increases as interest rates decline, the cost of funding retirement in other ways increases even faster than for the annuity. Therefore, the annuity becomes a better relative deal."
Speaking of Dr. Pfau, while he and Michael Kitces suggested seven years ago that a rising glidepath might provide a slightly higher probability of success (not running out of money over 30 years), subsequent research by Dr. David M. Blanchett showed that a traditional declining glidepath would work better in an environment with low interest rates and highly valued stocks. As it was in 2015 when he wrote his paper, and as it is now.
They had an ongoing exchange about this. Here's one part:

I re-ran the analysis that Michael and I did in our initial article, but I switched to the new capital market assumptions I use which allow for increasing bond yields over time while keeping a fixed average equity premium over bonds. ... It does indeed seem that retiring at times with particularly low bond yields, which can be expected to increase over time, may not favor rising equity glidepaths during retirement. It essentially causes the retiree to lock in low bond returns and even capital losses on a bond fund as bond yields gradually increase (on average) over time.
This is not to say that rising equity glidepaths are never a good idea. ... If interest rates were at a higher initial starting point, I’m guessing that rising glidepaths would look much better in his analysis.

Hi @Derf, Thank you for your question. In responding to it ... I can review my portfolio (performance wise) through M*'s portfolio manager on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, year to date, one year, three year, five year and ten year periods. In addition, some of the things tracked are the dividend yield, valuation, % weight of portfolio, daily change, unrealized gains, duration, maturity, expense ratio, & below 52 week high, plus some other things one of them being style box assignment.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2020/06/12/as-market-volatility-returns-check-out-these-strategies-to-protect-your-portfolio/#214c7ccc538b
As Market Volatility Returns, Check Out These Strategies To Protect Your Portfolio
Take advantage of any recovery today to initiate iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ETF (SPY) and iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH) put strategies. COVID-19 and economic disappointment potential is not a respecter of equity valuation. Yesterday’s performance reminds us that the markets tether to fundamentals can be loose, but it nonetheless exists.
We’ve been recommending playing for extreme outcomes and it still makes sense. Here is the cocktail designed to improve portfolio diversification against a number of scenarios and severity over the next several months until the picture gets clearer.

Generally I try not to say what I own because each person's needs are different ...

Commendable. I've been trying to follow the example and have learned it's much harder than it sounds.
Probably should have included this in @bee's "fund review" thread, but guess there's no end to the "surprises" one could list there. I can't comment on the other funds under discussion here, but as a long time holder of TRBUX wanted to share here my complete surprise and mystification at its behavior back in March. The fund (which targets a $5.00 NAV) fell completely out of bed in March, bottoming March 23 at a mere $4.85 per share. I've owned it nearly since inception and, honestly, never thought such a steep drop possible. These guys are nothing - unless a conservative lot of fund managers. Likewise, since back than the fund has "rocketed" all the way up to $5.05 - also an extraordinary feat for such a normally tame fund.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRBUX/history/
PS: I submit that the other thread running on "Investing for income in today's environment" strikes me at first blush as oxymoron.

Hi Bee,
Great thread! Yep, I'm a big the VWINX fan. It fell but it's back. It's like the good, the bad and the ugly.....lol. Sold 13 funds on the crash.....moved fast to stop losses. The ugly FMIJX....what a loser! I was going to sell it last year, but things were good. So I learned the lesson again....dumbass me. The bad....that would be FSDAX, but I think we're just a vaccine away from a runner. The good tech & growth we all know that. Have bought 5 new funds in June. Looking for the one.....lol......the Dukester says party on!!!!!!!
God bless
the Pudd

@Catch22 and others have been mentioning this very thing, I recall. Makes sense. I had been operating on an "old school" basis. 36% stocks now, 58% bonds. Goal: up to 65% bonds. But I won't be putting in much effort to get there. Looking 5 years out and trying to estimate profit, particularly now, would be a wild guess. Nevertheless, my "go-to" page is still Morningstar. They're telling me via X-Ray that my particular mix of funds will get me a 5-year yield that's 44% better than the Index they're using. As for cap gains, measured by EPS growth over 5 years: 31% better than the S&P500. But maybe that's just wishful thinking, based on normal times, anyhow. Covid-19 changes everything. Anyhow, the dividends I get monthly are not nothing. If I need to start collecting them--- after we move in the Spring to a bigger place, maybe--- they will be a big help with utilities, for example. Lots of solar here, though. If we're fortunate, we'll grab one of those.

Reliable Clements has some thoughts:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/

From the article and then my comments
1) Abandon bonds = Rediculous idea. I have talked to many retirees and they don't want the high volatility that stocks offer
2) Delay Social Security: you can do lots of calculations based on estimates but you can't predict the future. Just start in the middle, my wife and I will start taking SS at age 65 because of the above + Medicare and taxes will be deducted from SS too.
3) immediate fixed annuities: not an easy choice. If you don't have enough you can't afford it. If you have enough you don't need it. You also can't assume treasury yield will stay lower and since I don't care about treasuries I also know funds that pay over 4%. PIMIX stills pays over 5%.
4) tax efficiency: always important.
Most of these generic articles/research hardly ever offer what to do such as 1) not all bonds are treasuries 2) there are several great mutual funds 3) most retirees can't work forever or delay their retirement and don't have enough money. I want to see more ideas.
Example1: in one month, GWMEX,ORNAX,NHMAX made over 6%.
Example 2: I think that Kitces has better ideas than most. See (link) “rising equity glidepath” actually does improve retirement outcomes = start at lower % in stocks and increase gradually

I transferred my Roth IRA to Vanguard a little over one year ago. After the transfer, FMIJX was replaced with VWILX. I did not expect VWILX to significantly outperform FMIJX during severe market downturns.
FMIJX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -28.24%; YTD Performance: -19.10%
VWILX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -15.52%; YTD Performance: 6.34%
FMI funds have often performed well during past market selloffs.

Hope not too non-topical. Just based on relative performance of some funds I hold and following various print / non-print media:
(1) Following the March meltdown, value stocks began to outperform many other sectors. That was a surprise after their decades old underperformance. Doesn't make up for the bad years, but is a refreshing change for value investors.
(2) A second surprise was a brief powerful surge in energy and other cyclicals (including materials) which began shortly after oil briefly fell into negative territory. Oil is nowhere back to its all-time high over $100, but compared to April's (negative) - $37.63 handle, +$37-$38 today is pretty impressive. No idea how you would even compute a % gain like that.
(3) Not so much a surprise as "long overdue", the dollar weakened substantially over the past 2 weeks. That's supposed to be good for EM curriencies - probably is longer term. But downdrafts in equities like this week's can also serve to weaken those currencies.
If you are well diversified among various sectors and added a bit of risk to your plate during the March pummeling, chances are you're not down too far this year - and in some cases positive. Ted used to say, "Investing isn't a sprint, it's a marathon".
(4) @bee's topic is so stimulating ... here's one more surprise. Have followed real estate funds since dumping one a year ago. Than, sector was up something like 35% for 1 year. Generally afraid of heights - so bailed. What's surprising is both the depth to which they fell early this year as well as the sharp rebound since March / April. Considered opening a spec position in TRREX month or two ago when it was off near 30-35% YTD. Waited too long. Confucius say: He who hesitates is lost.. :)

Congratulations to the Class of 2020! I must admit, when I pictured my eldest daughter graduating high school, I did not imagine her wearing a mask with her cap and gown while receiving her diploma in my backyard. Although the traditional festivities did not occur, I can say that she, along with all other graduates, are moving onto college or entering the work place with valuable lessons in hand. From adapting to online learning to enduring the uncertainty that life can throw our way, this class has displayed incredible resilience and we wish them the best of luck in their future endeavors. Resiliency also comes to mind when I think of the US equity market. COVID-19 resulted in one of the swiftest declines in history, but the rally has been historic too. Before yesterday’s pullback, the S&P 500 was up ~43% and even briefly turned positive on the year. Due to inflated optimism and the market pricing in an exorbitant amount of positive news, the uptick in volatility had been expected./

I listed the funds because they meet the performance and risk parameters I was describing. Some I'm more familiar with than others. Generally I try not to say what I own because each person's needs are different, but I'll go so far as to say that I do own at least one fund on the list.
Beyond that, I'll just comment on a couple of the funds. I don't own BCOIX, but I've written about it a few times. I don't own it but I do own a similar fund with very close performance both short and long term. So I've never found a reason to change or to use it for management diversification.
Nor do I own TRBUX. I haven't written about this fund, but I have written positively about RPHYX and its use as a place for intermediate term (1-2 year) cash. For much of its life, TRBUX has returned significantly less than RPHYX (see chart here). Further, it fell a little harder than RPHYX in March.
But over the past three years, the two have tracked closely. And it bested RPHYX by nearly 3% since the end of March. While I still need to look at why each of these funds did the way they did, the past three years suggest that TRBUX could serve as a fine "near cash" fund.

Hi guys:
My three best performers year to date are CTFAX +13.75% ... AOFAX +9.96% ... and, FISCX +9.38%.
My three worst performers year to date are PMDAX -23.30% ... HWIAX -20.71% ... and, LPEFX -17.79%.
Thank goodness I hold more in my better performers than my laggards.
I have not dumped any funds for down performance thus far this year because the ones that have been down the most thus far year to date are, by in large, my 30 day up leaders. My three best 30 day up leaders are PMDAX +11.43 ... HWIAX +10.88 ... and, NEWFX +10.32.

In response to your question. I'm thinking that it does along with the high frequency crowd. Look how the machines played the market this past Thursday with the S&P 500 Index moving from a Wednesday close of 3190 to a Thursday close of 3002 for a 5.9% down move. It use to be years back that one percent moves were the big ones and now that the machines are playing the market the five percent moves are becoming quite common. I remember recently reading that some believe that better than fifty percent of the daily volume now comes by way of program trading.
Below is a link to a Seeking Alpha article that states 80% of the volume is believed to come from algo trading programs.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230982-algo-trading-dominates-80-of-stock-market

Hello folks
Dumb general question...
does the dividends capture on certain funds/ETFs added on summary pages [like google finance or yahoo finance] farce well w/ indexes i.e. spy or DJIA. Are these charts accounted the total incomes of these funds [performances + DIV]
the long term chart of spy and usmv are very similar.
Why bother buying Div ETFs/funds if their performance mirrored indexes.
You may get more exposures, better protections, and more diversified if buy indexes instead of Divs ETFs/funds. Spy and ITOT do offer little divs annually built in their ETFs.
Am I missing something?
https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&sxsrf=ALeKk02KLOL0--mUZB39w5V4eVrXBjAmUg:1592015678337&ei=PjvkXoSXFKaGwbkP7Z-f0AI&q=USMV&oq=USMV&gs_l=finance-immersive.3..81l3.2786.3616.0.4334.6.6.0.0.0.0.673.673.5-1.1.0....0...1c.1.64.finance-immersive..5.1.672....0.YlrqytqM6C4#scso=_RDvkXpO0NaGMwbkP0v6XwAo1:0&smids=/g/1q62h0x10&wptab=COMPARE
thankyou

Hi guys: With the stock market activity that we had this week I thought I'd post an update with this weeks barometer reading. For the month I have the S&P 500 Index about flat, thus far, with a barometer reading of 131 as we opened the month and currently with a reading of 132 as I write which indicates that the Index is extremely overbought at this time.
Please note that the barometer is not a long term forward looking model that another poster (Junkster) referenced it to, the Zweig Thrust Indicator. Perhaps, Junskter did not have a good understanding of how the barometer works. Interesting, though, this post (along with some of his other post) have now been removed from the discussion area prior to me making this edit.
I use the barometer to assist me in adjusting my equity allocation when felt approperiate. When the barometer reflects that the Index is oversold I increase my equity allocation and when the barometer indicates that the Index is overbought I generally reduce my equity allocation. Pretty simple ... but, effective as this method tends to having me buying equity ballast at low prices and then selling it off at a higher price.
When there is a meaningful barometer reading change I'll update the thread.
Have a good weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing.
Old_Skeet
Additional comment. I'm now back to building cash since my rebalance process is mostly complete. With this, I have reduced my equity allocation from 49% to 45% as equities have had a strong upward run of late and were trimmed. This rebalance now positions me overweight in both my income and equity areas by 5% each with about 10% in cash. From my base allocation of 20/40/40 I am now 10/45/45 as I can overweight each area (the income side and the equity side) of my portfolio by up to 5%. These overweights are due mostly to low cash yields. My overweight on the equity side is in good dividend paying equity mutual funds that produce qualified dividends and on the income side in multi sector and hybrid income funds which produce dividends as well. I'm thinking that by the end of the year, if valuations remain relative to what they are now, my cash allocation will build and bubble in the 15% range coming from income generation from inside my portfolio. At yearend, I may elect to do another rebalance as I usually rebalance by the calendar two times per year and other times if felt warranted.

SDY or NOBL, both ETF's, might be the closest you can get. An investment in the S&P 500 does better and USMV beats them both as well in terms of return performance.

I've seen a lot of recent activity attributed to rebalancing defined index portfolios -- like 60-40's.
I have also seen activity attributed to sports bettors with no place to go. The piece seems short on real numbers.
I did not enjoy my ride with the Vanguard quants I bought in 2006 when computer algorithms still seemed like a good idea. I sold them as soon as they were back in the black. And I haven't looked back.

I have a fair amount of overlap with funds previously mentioned. Among those not mentioned . . .
YTD performance is per M* rather than any picture of my performance.
Neuberger Berman Genesis (NBGNX) has done just fine @ -5.44 YTD . I'm glad I held on when I was selling funds to simplify, and rebalance, back in December-January. Their thesis still made sense to me when push came to shove.
Value Line Mid-Cap (VLIFX) is -4.98. I bought some on march 18th. That has worked out pretty well.
Merk Hard Currency (MERKX) is at -2.7. I'm so far in the red on that one. I doubled down on that and USAGX (a gold fund) after Trump was elected. Maybe it would take off if we had Weimar-style inflation. I hope it never takes off. But I'll probably hold it until the end.
Fidelity Floating Rate (FFRHX) is holding up better than VWELX at only -4.71. I bought it as part of my inflation hedge. Compared to MERKX, I feel like the guy that stopped hitting himself in the head with a rock.
I'm not too happy with the DoubleLine bond funds I bought. Their infrastructure fund (BILDX) is only +.13. And their low duration is off -.86. I'll be looking for opportunities to get out ahead with both.
Fidelity Real Estate Income (FRIFX) has been a party-pooper. It's at -12.69 while TIAA Real Estate (TCREX) is only off -7.90. FRIFX was supposed to be the less volatile real estate option. Considering I bought them after selling Vanguard's realty index (VGSIX), I shouldn't kick too much. It's off 12.48.
Switching out of Vanguard's small cap index for Boston-Walden's small cap ESG (BOSOX) has not worked out yet. It's off -17.72 while the index is only off -13.51.
I still have high hopes for ESG moving forward. Not sure how long I'll have to wait. Parnassus, and Boston-Walden midcaps have been nothing to write home about compared to the mid-caps mentioned above.
TIAA-CREF's ESG bond fund TSBRX has worked out better so far at +3.59
Janus Henderson Small Cap Value has been a lamb led to slaughter. The less said of it, the better.
Speaking of the funds that got away during my rebalance. Nicholas (NICSX) is only off -4.15. But I was worried about the succession issues after going through tribulations with Homestead Small Cap (HSCSX). That started to wobble after Morris and Teach retired. And began to founder after Ashton retired. I got out some time ago.
I dumped Royce Special Equity (RYSEX). There are other funds that watch the balance sheets, and still manage to buy a winning stock every once in a while.
I dumped Mairs and Powers funds when I realized it was silly to own something because I went to college in St. Paul 45 years ago.

Over three months, this fund with an SEC yield of 0.15% is going to return around 4 basis points. With a duration of 1.9 years, a 2 basis point increase in rates (+0.02%) could wipe out the total three month return. (A small decrease in rates could likewise double the total return, but we're basically at ZIRP, so a rate decline seems less likely.)
I use three months because one can find brokered three month CDs with 0.20% APY. That's a higher yield than the ETF with no interest rate risk to principal. Credit risk is similar: FDIC insured vs. backed by full faith and credit of the treasury.
The downside of CDs is that liquidity is limited - one can only get cash out every three months. However, if one is looking to stash cash for under three months, then this ETF is going to give you even less than 4 basis points while exposing you to interest rate risk. A mattress would not be appreciably worse.
Brokered CDs can make sense for stashing cash in an IRA if one is focused on safety. That's because moving money from trustee to trustee, especially short term, is troublesome. But if one's cash is in a taxable account, one can just use an internet bank. No penalty CDs are still yielding over 1% and they put a floor under your return in case bank rates drop. Should rate rise, you can cash out and buy a higher yielding CD.

Many foreign and global bond funds hedge currency. The thinking, as espoused by Vanguard, is that one buys fixed income outside of the US to reduce volatility, and exposure to different currencies runs counter to this.

In theory, this diversification can help reduce a portfolio’s volatility without necessarily decreasing its total return. ... The key to realizing the diversification potential of global bonds is to hedge the currency exposure back to the investor’s local currency.

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGLBD.pdf
M* reports 31 distinct hedged world bond funds. (Remember that "world" includes both foreign and global.) Among others, these include FGBFX, HFATX, PGBIX, PFORX, VTABX, and of course PRSNX. M* lists 53 unhedged (or partially hedged) world bond funds, including MDWIX, DODLX, LSGLX, MGBAX, GTRAX, PIGLX, PFUIX, TGCFX.
M* similarly splits emerging market bond funds. Ones denominated in local currency include TGWIX, EEIAX, and PELBX. There are 72 dollar denominated EM bond funds including FNMIX, HXIAX (Asian fund, NTF at TDA), MCRDX, TRECX, VEMBX, VGAVX, and your MAINX.
There are always going to be a few funds that don't quite fit into a category. If there are enough of them, they can be grouped together into an "other" category. M* does this for foreign funds. That's where you'll find the only Korean fund (MAKOX) lumped in with two emerging Europe funds (TREMX, EUROX), the only Russian fund (LETRX) in case those emerging emerging Europe funds aren't narrowly focused enough for you, and so on.
Obviously you can't compare these funds with each other. What's the alternative? The emerging Europe funds could be tossed in with diversified emerging markets. That's what Lipper did. It's arguably a little better, but not really. This is the approach M* took with the Asian bond funds. On the other hand Lipper put them into three different categories: International Income (HXIAX), Alternative Credit Focus (MCRDX), and Emerging Market Hard Currency (MAINX).