Short-Duration HY Munis Remain Attractive Options For Rising Rates
Summary
- Rising rates remain top-of-mind for income investors due to their ability to deliver portfolio losses.
- The short-duration high-yield tax-exempt municipal sector remains one attractive option for rising rates on several fronts that we discuss in the article.
- We also highlight a number of investment options in the space such as NVHAX, ISHAX and SHYD
Our favorite pick in the sector remains the Nuveen Short Duration High Yield Municipal Bond Fund (NVHAX) with a 3.79% distribution yield.

Barron’s Roundtable Member James Anderson to Retire from Baillie Gifford
Link

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/19/taxable-municipals-myths-and-misperceptions
https://news.yahoo.com/9-best-municipal-bond-funds-211119796.html
Taxable Municipals – Myths and Misperceptions
by Tony Tanner of Ivy Investments, 3/19/21
Taxable Municipal Bonds grabbed the attention of not only municipal bond market participants in 2020, but also of investors and financial professionals globally across the asset class landscape.
9 Best Municipal Bond Funds to Buy and Hold
Debbie Carlson
State and local governments are in good shape.
***Like other asset classes, the municipal bond market rebounded after the initial sell-off last year because of the pandemic. Amy Magnotta, co-head of discretionary portfolios at Brinker Capital Investments, says state and local governments "are actually in pretty good shape, surprisingly, despite the pandemic," noting most state revenues were roughly flat in 2020 versus 2019. With President Joe Biden's stimulus money and infrastructure plan, and the reopening of many states' economies, the fiscal situation for many state and local governments might be good as they get cash injections. However, she says, with interest rates so low, investors need to be careful what funds they choose. Here are nine muni bond funds to buy.
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (ticker: VTEB)
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Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA, says exchange-traded fund VTEB is a good place for muni bond investors to start when building this part of their portfolio. The fund tracks the S&P Municipal Bond Index, which is made of investment-grade issues and diversified across states. VTEB's annual cost is 0.06%, which amounts to $6 for every $10,000 invested, one of the lowest among its peers. The fund is free from both federal income tax from the alternative minimum tax. The yield is 2%. "It's a great core part of the portfolio," Rosenbluth says.
Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
The municipal bond universe can be an inefficient asset class due to its large number of issuers, says Steven Saunders, director and portfolio advisor at Round Table Wealth Management, so his firm prefers to use actively managed funds where the managers can find relative value through security selection and yield-curve positioning. His pick is BTMIX, which "has demonstrated consistent value-add in these areas, and their short-duration strategy allows for defensive positioning in the event rates continue to rise." The fund has an annual cost of 0.3% and a yield of 1.5%.
- ADVERTISEMENT -
PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
Mark Mumford, director at Hollow Brook Wealth Management, says his firm looks for municipal bonds strategies that have a strong emphasis on credit quality and issuer diversification. GNMVX tries to limit swings in assets under management which can negatively affect a municipal bond strategy, he adds. The fund has a low annual fee of 0.39% and a yield of 1.67%, with an effective duration of 5.3 years. The fund seeks investment-grade bonds with higher yields using fundamental credit research. "Municipal markets can be inefficient, creating opportunities for experienced teams to find value in a low interest rate environment," Mumford says.
Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
Magnotta says with rates low and a recent pickup in market volatility, she prefers active management and is focusing on investment-grade munis. She chooses NOITX, because she likes that it has an experienced team with a long tenure, holds high-quality issues and has a liquid portfolio. She notes the annual cost of 0.46% is below average. "This is a strategy that long term is a good balance in a portfolio," Magnotta says. This fund has more than $3 billion in assets under management, and the average credit quality in the fund is A-rated.***
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB)
-- Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
-- PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
-- Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
-- Nuveen Dynamic Municipal Opportunities Fund (NDMO)
-- VanEck Vectors High Yield Municipal Index ETF (HYD)
-- Nuveen High Yield Municipal Bond Fund (NHMRX)
-- Nuveen All-American Municipal Bond Fund (FAARX)
-- Northern Arizona Tax-Exempt Fund (NOAZX)
Several good reasonable funds considered to be added here especially for capital Preservation and retirement accts/and inflation worries.
We do have HYD but may add some to Mama retired portfolio
Enjoy
Happy Saturday

pkrug tweets today
A friend recently reminded me of this classic case of inflationista scare tactics during the Obama years; what we should have been getting ready for was unjustified inflation panic 1/
(this anent Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates: The unprecedented expansion of the money supply could make the '70s look benign. wsj.com)
For a brief moment after the GOP took over the House, Rs went all in on accusing Ben Bernanke of debasing the dollar, basically because of a surge in commodity prices 2/
The Fed, however, stood its ground, because there was no surge in core inflation, which is (correctly) considered a much better guide to policy 3/
While core is usually defined by excluding volatile food and energy prices, the underlying logic is that you're trying to measure inflation inertia, which comes from embedded expectations of future inflation 4/
This time around it seems quite likely that we'll see a temporary spike in headline inflation — not just from food and energy but from various supply bottlenecks. A container shortage is driving up shipping costs 5/
Domestic shipping costs are rising, probably part of the same story 6/
Lumber is also spiking 7/
The important point is that none of this will indicate a return to 70s-type stagflation. It will all be a blip reflecting an economic surge plus some lingering covid-related disruptions. I'm sure the Fed understands that.
But be prepared for another inflation panic. 8/

March 20th Episode:

Notes:
Cyclical Sectors:
Energy
Industrials
Materials
Commodities
Regional Banks
Small Cap Equities
Emerging Markets
Related articles:
types-of-stocks/cyclical-stocks
jpmorgan-on-cyclical-defensive-and-tech-stocks-amid-inflation-expectations

Search out:
- "Short Duration" Equities (low PE):
- Small Cap Value

I own three funds (VTMSX, VWILX, IVOO) which returned between 101% and 115% over the past 12 months.
I don't expect a repeat performance anytime soon!

Here's the list again..........so, check the 52W % change column (click to sort the column) for a quick and dirty view of some numbers from around the globe and select sectors.
Congratulations to those who went all in at the bottom, one year ago. :)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120543/000110465921038922/a21-10255_1497.htm
497 1 a21-10255_1497.htm 497
Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended
Registration File No.: 333-200831
BAILLIE GIFFORD FUNDS
Baillie Gifford International Concentrated Growth Equities Fund
Baillie Gifford International Growth Fund
Supplement dated March 19, 2021 to the Prospectuses dated April 29, 2020 as supplemented or revised from time to time
James Anderson is expected to retire from the Manager and cease to serve as Portfolio Manager for Baillie Gifford International Concentrated Growth Equities Fund and Baillie Gifford International Growth Fund effective on or about April 30, 2022. Therefore, effective immediately, the following sentence is added to the first row in the table in the section titled “Baillie Gifford International Concentrated Growth Equities Fund Team” and the first row in the table in the section titled “Baillie Gifford International Growth Fund Team” each under “Investment Teams” in the Prospectuses:
Mr. Anderson is expected to retire from the Manager and cease to serve as Portfolio Manager for the Fund effective on or about April 30, 2022.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
1

I should have placed the below links in order of dates, but anyway..... there are some portions within the links below to YouTube videos, aside from the actual full length movie or documentary (PBS). The links are broad based so that you may look at whatever related; and present a view of union/company power struggles.
Companies and unions, the battle between the two; and IMHO is simply based with a system of honor between management/the company and the workers. A form of equality or fairness between making a reasonable profit for a company and a reasonable wage to an employee for their effort in helping making the profit. Sadly, honor is a most difficult condition for a human(s) to maintain.
Over many years power and corruption have afflicted both groups.
The modern era example links below, have long and deep roots from time periods long ago. Also, that the time frames below only reflect some of the larger events; while many such events were taking place in many smaller actions all across the U.S. wherever one found an industrial era operation.
As an 18 y.o. I worked for GM for 16 months, and was a UAW member by default. Not a large learning experience for me at the time, as my brain cells were not fully developed , regarding a union. My largest first time observation of the factory world was the changing of the flavors in the soda/pop vending machines placed through out the enormous facility. The week before major holidays found that any beverage flavor that did not mix well with vodka or a whisky were removed and replaced with a highly favored mixer. Yes, management was fully aware of a high percentage of the work force who were using alcohol during work hours. I knew two shift foreman (management) who had a good buzz in place, periodically; during their 12 hour shift. An old joke was, "Don't buy a new car/truck built during the holidays"........quality control ??? From the alcohol of the 50's through 70's, came weed, coke and other used by employees. Sadly, the protection of union members, by the unions, traveled too far beyond the norm; attempting to protect against anything that was not an actual murder on company property. So much for what should have remained anything to do with being honorable. EX: Assembly line workers taking turns "clocking out, old mechanical time clocks" one another out at the end of a shift, when they had already left the building after 1 hour of work. Problem: True story. Fella left work early, crossed through a nearby rail yard, caught shoe/foot in track/switch unit, needed recuse unit to free foot and had to be taken to hospital emergency from the injury. Appealed that he had a family emergency and had to leave work early; and no other actions were taken against him.
The Flint, Michigan sit-down strike had a significant impact to the work landscape for many years. The benefits of this action flowed into the non-union wages and benefits, too; at least in Michigan.
Too many other stories about the companies and the unions; the power and the corruption that plague both of them to this day. But, I'm done; and hope the write flow is not too disruptive.
Matewan coal mining strike, 1920's, fact based
Homestead Carnegie steel strike, 1892, fact based
The Molly Maguires 1970 movie circa 1870's, book/movie inspired by true events.
Copper Country strike, 1913, fact based
The game changer, Flint Michigan, sit-down strike, 1936-1937
Michigan, right to work law , an at will employee
A further restriction/addition to this law was signed by the governor in 2013; regarding union membership. Prior employee (non-union) rights already had many restrictions to rights of employment in Michigan. A real world example took place in 2003, of which; I was witness. A company was re-shaping their employee base and terminated 4 people who were in their late 50's-early 60's and not yet at a full retirement age. A "no charge" meeting was held with a pro-labor attorney, regarding that this action appeared to be a "age related discrimination" related termination(s). He offered his experience with such actions and stated that this was a no win case; as if one did not have a series of annual reviews over the years that were graded an "excellent", no basis could be brought forth. So, when one is graded via an annual work review, and there are 10 areas of grading, each area must be the equivalent of "excellent", the highest possible rating. This indeed, would be a rare event in any employee's career. The terminations remained in place. My personal note, is that these 4 where honorable and ethical persons who gave a good days work to the company.

Because the bear hit bottom just about 12 months ago, the TTM returns are crazy. Across the entire investment universe, the average TTM return as of today is 68%. A quick check shows 150+ one-star funds that have returned more than that. 50 funds - from Bridgeway Ultra Small to Cannabis Growth - have clocked in at over 200% returns in the period.
David

Not "sales" is in "discounted prices." "Sales" as in "having anyone buy anything from us." Leuthold published two interesting research pieces lately, one of which looked at the fraction of the large cap universe whose stocks trade at price/sales ratios of 15 or more. (15 is rather more than twice the value assigned to Apple.) At base, investing in those companies is an act of pure hopefulness: "sure, they're not selling much now, but they're gonna explode onto the market next year!" They found that the share of such firms is at a record.
The more recent study extended that into the small cap space which is subject to weirdness not seen in large caps: the prevalence of companies with absolutely zero sales. Such companies don't appear in a calculation of high p/s ratio firms because there's no "s" to put into the denominator. So Leuthold plotted high p/s along with no-sales firms.

They note that buying such firms is a "distinctly inferior strategy over time" when measured by their subsequent returns, and that "there does seem to be a relationship" between spikes in the prevalence of such firms and subsequent market declines.
For what interest that holds,
David

Yes, I saw the sell-off, when I looked, at the end of the day. I like my mix of stuff. Down on the day by -0.54%.

VIX climbed 10% today, but still close to its 52 week low.
VIX Index
The MOVE Index climbed 5%, but is making new 52 week highs:

The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options which are weighted on the 2, 5, 10, and 30 year contracts. This Volatility Index shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatility of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking, is calculated from both calls and puts, and is a widely used measure of market risk, often referred to as the "investor fear gauge."

Many of us are familiar with the VIX Index, commonly referred to as the “Fear Index”. The VIX Index is a measure of “fear” as that relates to equity markets and typically rises during periods of falling prices, sometimes sharply during more precipitous declines.
Did you know that there is a similar index that measures fear within the bond market? That index was developed by Merrill Lynch and is referred to as the “MOVE” Index. The index rises as concerns grow that interest rates are on the march higher. The index will rise more sharply when there are fears in the market that rates may be headed significantly higher as was the case during the 2013 Taper Tantrum.

https://raymondjames.com/davidolnick/david-chart-of-the-week/2016/11/18/the-move-index
Financial Times charts the MOVE Index over the last 12 months or so here:
MOVE Index
*Notice the spike in the MOVE in March 2020*

Yep - Blew right through that 1.5% level. Folks are realizing that the Fed’s rate control is mostly over the very short end of the curve. They can, of course, buy huge quantities of longer dated bonds to try to keep the lid on. But tough. Pure conjecture - but suspect we’ll live to see the day when they start buying equities as well to try and prop up shaky markets.
For whatever reason, it’s a sea of red today. Noteworthy is a 8.5% drop in NYMEX - currently below $60. But the major equity indexes look sick as well.

I dunno LB, you might be swaying me...why the F don't they have unions at Amazon...they work hard, those employees.
I know folks who used to work at a AMZN warehouse and they cut 20 lbs of weight in no time.
How can UPS pay a decent wage, have unions, are well run (Carol Tome IS the real deal), associates are well motivated and provide professional good service (I've never had a bad experience with anything to do with UPS) and you're (well, not you LB) telling me AMZN can't have a union?
Bigger question is how they (Amazon) only pay so little in taxes, are you sheeting me?
Don't even get me started on the ESG stuff...I was talking to a neighbor for 45 minutes and three different AMZN trucks pulled up nearby and each delivered three different small packages to different homes.
Best,
Baseball Fan

Not a boo boo, just a fund that most people wouldn't be looking at. The fund is also a good answer to the question: who would buy a bond (or bond fund) with a negative yield?
T. Rowe Price used to offer a variable annuity. While it hasn't been available for new investors in years, it is still around. The only cash alternative in that VA is (soon to be "was") the Government Money Portfolio.
If investors wanted to flee to safety, this was their only option within the annuity. Even though YTD (through Feb 28) it had lost 0.07% (including VA fees), and over the past year it lost 0.43%.
https://fsbl.com/annuities/t-rowe-price-performance/
I'm not picking on TRP here. No matter how low VA fees are, when MMFs yield 0.01% (including subsidies), investors will lose money with them. Here's the only MMF offered in Fidelity's Personal Retirement Annuity. Its negative returns (-0.05% YTD as of March 17, and -0.16% over the year ending Feb 28) incorporate the VA fees.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/annuities/summary/FTNJC

Me thinks we're going to get the "high and tight" haircut....
What day think zenbrew, the class action lawsuits weren't gonna cost anything?
What's your guess, less 25%??
Sheet,
Baseball Fan

First, fraudsters load up on ultracheap shares of a small stock hardly anyone trades. Then comes the pump: They pitch the stock as one with hot prospects, spreading around positive information to push up its price. Finally, there’s the dump: After the price jumps higher, the perpetrator sells and leaves the new buyers holding a mostly empty bag.
“It’s all just a pool filled with sharks,” said Urska Velikonja, a law professor who studies securities regulation at Georgetown University Law Center. “It’s where the unwary go to get eaten.”
Penny stock booms tend to occur during raging bull markets, when greed abounds. They were hot in the 1980s, when the arrival of cheap, long-distance telephone service gave rise to brokerage firms that specialized in high-pressure, cold-call pitches of worthless stocks.

penny-stock-trading-volume-has-exploded-by-2000-amid-the-growing-influence-of-retail-traders

10 Yr now at 1.75% seems to have made a "U-shape" recover from January 2020.
treasury-10-year-yields-breach-1-70-to-reach-january-2020-high

contd
Concerns about debt did loom larger in economic analysis than they should have — partly, I think, because people didn't grasp the implications of r < g, partly out of partially unconscious deference to political fashion.
The truth is that if we'd taken our own models seriously we would have adopted an attitude much closer to Abba Lerner's functional finance:
https://jstor.org/stable/40981939?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
Someone will bring up MMT. After all this time, I still don't know what it is beyond functional finance — every time you try, you're told that you don't get it, and at this point I think it's mainly a marketing ploy. So never mind.
Anyway, the whole debate over ARPA was in effect conducted in terms of functional finance — not whether it cost too much, but whether it was inflationary. But that's not so much new theory as taking our own models seriously.
The other big change — and this does mark a change in theory — is that the NAIRU has largely dropped out of discussion — basically because nothing that's happened since 1985 supports an "accelerationist" view of inflation.
Low unemployment and a hot economy do seem to yield somewhat higher inflation; but there has been no sign that this quickly or easily translates into an ever-rising inflation rate. Maybe it's anchored expectations, maybe it's downward wage rigidity, but it's just not there.
This doesn't mean that inflation is never a concern. But it does mean that the stability of inflation over time does NOT mean that the economy was on average at full employment. Instead, there's now a good case that we've been persistently underemployed.
That is a pretty big deal, and feeds directly into policy: Biden and co's relaxed attitude toward debt is matched by a relaxed attitude toward inflation.
So there have been important changes in how economists talk about policy, some of which include rethinking of our models. But a lot of what has happened is simply that economists are following their existing models, instead of tweaking them to justify political prejudices.