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My bad. Okay, so; the beginning of the week.....March 2 or the end date of the first week of March. What date ? Will try to get the graph to stick for a short time frame to move data here.since the first week of March
... these results mostly reflect how exorbitant valuations were at the start of that 20-year span, and not how depressed they are today.
...the S&P 500 isn’t yet statistically cheap, but it is vastly more attractive than it was just five weeks ago.
... not a single equity sector generated a double-digit annualized return over the last 20 years, nor did any major asset class.
Incredibly, the S&P 500 Energy sector (+2.4%) and Technology sector (+2.7%) delivered about the same results to those who bought them in March 2000 and held on for the ride.
In sum, initial valuations matter, and the only good thing to come out of the last five weeks’ action is that the “cost of entry” into the S&P 500 has finally closed in on its historical average, and almost all other stock market cohorts (domestic and international) are well below their averages. Veteran investors will recall that the Y2K peak proved to be an excellent time to shift into Mid and Small Caps, and it’s worth noting that median valuations for these stocks are 15-25% below those prevailing at that historic turning point. Keep this good news in mind when dealing with the coming onslaught of bad news.
The following provides a brief recap of the RiverNorth conference call held on March 19th.
Capital markets and economic volatility/uncertainty has led to unprecedented volatility in the CEF markets
RiverNorth estimates that 90%+ of the CEF market is owned by retail – and they are in full retreat
Co-portfolio manager Steve O’Neill described some of the CEF price action last week as a “9.5 out of 10 on the CEF panic scale”
Discounts hit (and in some cases exceeded) levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
To keep investors appraised of the opportunity set, RiverNorth started posting discount data here: rivernorth.com/cef-discount-info
The opportunity is broad based – nearly all CEF asset classes trading at historically wide discounts
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infinite-qe-destroying-traditional-bond-174459945.htmlCore tenets such as what constitutes a safe asset, the value of bonds as a portfolio hedge, and expectations for returns over the next decade are all being reconsidered as governments and central banks strive to avert a global depression.
QE Kills Valuation Models -- Ordinarily, the prospect of a multi-trillion-dollar government spending surge globally ought to send borrowing costs soaring. But central bank purchases are now reshaping rates markets -- emulating the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy starting in 2016 -- and quashing these latest volatility spikes.
Inflation Risk -- Many market veterans agree that faster inflation may return in a recovery awash with stimulus that central banks and governments may find tough to withdraw...“There’s tension in all of this,” said Hamish Pepper, fixed-income and currency strategist at Harbour Asset Management Ltd. in Wellington, New Zealand. “I don’t think it’s necessarily about waking up one morning realizing that bond yields should be 100 basis points higher from here -- but you have to think about inflation at some point.”
Haven or Not? -- “Will government bonds play the same role in your portfolio going forward as they have in the past?” he said. “To me the answer is no they don’t -- I’d rather own cash.”
“It’s very hard to look at this in a historical context and then apply an investment framework around it,” said BlackRock’s Thiel. “The most applicable period is right before America entered WW2, when you had gigantic stimulus to spur the war effort. I mean, Ford made bombers in WW2 and now they’re making ventilators in 2020.”
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