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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    BAMBX has SD of 4.6% (high). Turnover of 500% is high, so is ER. About 11% in stocks, rest in bonds & others (probably convertible). Don't treat is as cash or CD proxy.
  • Small-caps at all?
    I owned MSSMX WAMCX until the end of the last cycle. I consider them the ex-champ. In small cap space, I own 8 including CSMVX AFDVX FCPGX FSCRX, favorite 3 are CSMVX AFDVX FSCRX. Here are stat from Marketwatch:
    1 week 13 week YTD 1 year 3 year
    CSMVX (3.43) 12.69 41.30 56.26 31.75
    MSCFX (2.08) 4.96 25.58 33.62 14.40
    WAMCX (6.04) (0.85) 8.90 20.32 34.38
    MSSMX (9.21) (13.09) 5.57 32.28 51.53
    FCPGX (5.32) 2.12 14.51 25.55 25.70
    AFDVX (0.79) 14.42 45.17 54.29 24.72
    FSCRX (0.47) 6.01 35.29 40.96 19.55
    Good luck everyone.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    It seems if you go short PDI and long on PCI for the same notional amount, you are guaranteed to make 1.5% (not annualized) in three weeks.
  • Barron's
    “ … I used to subscribed to it for over quite awhile until the Great Recession where I found Barrons completely missed several signs leading to the great decline.”
    I’d concur with @Sven that Barron’s is not a particularly good barometer / predictor of major changes in market direction or sentiment. Their “Commodities Corner” bear call on gold around the 2000 -2002 period stands out in particular. Within a few weeks of the very bearish call, gold took off on a tear going from under $300 to an intermediate term peak of $700-$800 in just a few short years.
    But Barron’s is really a compilation of many different market assessments. A careful reading will reveal these. Their weekly “Market View” column (Formerly called “Quoth the Mavens”) pulls excerpts from an assortment of current financial newsletters. Often, these will contradict one another. Yet a perceptive reader may draw some reasonable inferences. Weekly columnist Randall Forsyth may fall short of being “profound” in assessing market direction or valuation - but provides an intriguing skeptic’s eye toward many financial issues - particularly keen on assessing retail investor sentiment I think.
    I’ve purchased 3 or 4 stocks over the past year based on Barron’s recommendations. All did well. Today I sold one, NGLOY, after a quick 14% run-up since they recommended it roughly 2 months ago. Still like it - but have been trimming risk wherever I can of late. So, based on some very limited experience buying their picks, I’ll guess they’re probably right more often than wrong on those recommendations.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    There are discussions on the merger of PKO and PCI into PDI at other sites. This has been a long convergence theme with the merger finally effective on December 10, 2021 (about 3 weeks). https://community.morningstar.com/s/feed/0D53o00005UznTdCAJ
  • Small-caps at all?
    Sorry... I didn't complete my sentence. Was interrupted. Ignore my comment on reversion. Cursory glance at life perf. of some of the SC was interesting but not meaningful given variable time periods of life.
    CSMVX +13.09
    FCPGX +13.71
    BRUSX +13.74
    MSSMX +13.83
    MSCFX: +15.38 and the lowest ER of the list.
  • WordPress Security Breach & MFO
    A hacker was able infiltrate GoDaddy's WordPress provisioning system using a compromised password.
    These are the consequences and actions taken as of 11/22/2021.
    Upon identifying this incident, we immediately blocked the unauthorized third party from our system.
    Up to 1.2 million active and inactive Managed WordPress customers had their email address and customer number exposed. The exposure of email addresses presents risk of phishing attacks.
    The original WordPress Admin password that was set at the time of provisioning was exposed.
    If those credentials were still in use, we reset those passwords.
    For active customers, sFTP and database usernames and passwords were exposed.
    We reset both passwords.
    For a subset of active customers, the SSL private key was exposed.
    We are in the process of issuing and installing new certificates for those customers.
    Our investigation is ongoing and we are contacting all impacted customers directly with specific details.
    This was a serious breach for GoDaddy.
    Their security team, an independent IT forensics firm, and law enforcement are still investigating.
    Hopefully, the culprit(s) will be brought to justice and prosecuted to the full extent of the law.
  • Small-caps at all?
    1Q2020, CSMVX lost less than FPACX OAKBX , for example, so even though different investment objectives, impressive performance for a small cap growth fund !
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    If I was independently wealthy, I can think of a plethora of worthy donees. First, your high school or college may benefit-in my case my Alma Mater has Touchdown Jesus library and an endowment of 10 billion dollars, so they wouldn't need it. HBCU's are a possibility, just to rile up the voters from a particular party-Howard University must need some help with their dilapidated housing! Or a particular medical project could benefit;in my case, since I have early CKD, the Artificial Kidney Project, a joint collaboration between UCSF and Vanderbilt has piqued my interest. $20 million, not a staggering sum would fully fund the project and greatly reduce the need for dialysis services provided by Davita and Fresenius. Obviously, if I won a hundred million dollar lottery, I would fully fund this project, although government funding could end the shortfall in an instant!
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    @davidmoran, I find it interesting that "B" is still a small cap value company. A little history:
    Wallace Barnes began working for both his father Alphonso and grandfather Thomas in the family hotel and general store. The general store specialized in clocks, but it also sold drugs and general merchandise. Wallace eventually became skilled as a druggist. Partly because he and his father did not get along, however, he left to start his own druggist shop in a nearby town. Lackluster returns from that venture prompted him to try his hand at a new business, clockmaking. Wallace started out contracting to supply cut glass, doors, and parts to different clockmakers who were part of the bustling clock trade that had developed in Bristol; in fact, Bristol was known as the clockmaking capital of the United States at the time. Unfortunately, the local clock industry fell on hard times when the Panic of 1857 caused a severe depression.
    At the time of the Panic, Wallace was working for clockmaker A.S. Platt. Platt, for whom Wallace had been working at the rate of $1.25 per day, became unable to pay him for his services. Instead of cash, Barnes accepted some hoop-skirt wire as compensation. In a move that demonstrated his dealmaking savvy, Wallace hauled the wire in a wagon to nearby Albany. There, he traded the wire for a financially troubled haberdashery store. Rather than stay to run the store himself, Wallace turned around and traded it for a Missouri farm that he had never seen. Upon returning to Bristol, he managed to trade the farm for a blacksmith shop, which he sold for the handsome sum of $1,600. Incredibly, Wallace used the money to purchase the troubled A.S. Platt, the company that had given him the wire in the first place.
    https://company-histories.com/Barnes-Group-Inc-Company-History.html
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    150 years ago, the park system in our local town was bestowed to the city and its residence by the wealthy industrialists whose success was due in large part to its local workforce.
    https://connecticuthistory.org/mr-mrs-rockwells-park/
    Small world.
    I'm originally from Central CT and lived near Bristol.
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    It seems so much good could come from all of this excess wealth, yet if such good exists, it appears under reported.
    A little off topic from this thread, but on the topic of what to do with excess wealth...
    150 years ago, the park system in our local town was bestowed to the city and its residence by the wealthy industrialists whose success was due in large part to its local workforce.
    https://connecticuthistory.org/mr-mrs-rockwells-park/
    I'm sure this happened throughout the country at the time.
    A generation later the factory work went overseas, the three family homes that once housed factory workers now are filled with section 8 housing recipients.Those less fortunate dwell in these same parks.
    We really have lost our way.
  • OEFs and ETFs capturing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
    Alerian Energy Infrastructure (ENFR)? Hard to think of a $62M ETF that's focused on just a slice of infrastructure (energy MLPs) as a main ETF.
    Investopedia's piece seems a bit confused on some details. Its title says that it is about the the best ETFs going forward (best for Q1 2022), but its text says that it is discussing the three ETFs with the best past performance.
    It says that there are eight non-leveraged, non-inverse infrastructure funds with AUM over $50M. US News does indeed identify eight ETFs north of $50M: IFRA, TOLZ, PAVE, NFRA, GII, IGF, VPN, and SIMS. ENFR isn't among these eight. Is Investopedia's count wrong or it is mistaken in viewing ENFR as an infrastructure ETF?
    From the piece's citations, it seems the writer merely ran this screen on etfdb and picked the three equity ETFs with the best one year returns. In doing so, he missed a better performing ETF.
    FWIW, etfdb does not consider funds like ENFR to be infrastructure funds. Nor do M* and Lipper. Here's etfdb's list of infrastructure ETFs. If one is going to consider such funds (I'm not opining one way or the other), then ISTM that one would be writing about Global X MLP and Energy Infrastructure (MLPX) rather than ENFR.
    MLPX is a real player (the same size as IFRA), it's in the same energy MLP space as ENFR (having the same top 11 holdings in common), it outperformed ENFR over the chosen one year period by about 1½%; it has better long term risk adjusted performance (4* vs 3* for ENFR), and its bid/ask spread is about 1/5 that of ENFR (from Fidelity pages).
    If one is investing based on the just signed infrastructure bill, then it might make sense to focus on domestic funds. If one is investing longer term or seeking greater diversification, then some global funds though not recent standouts might merit a second look.
    Here's a recent Kiplinger piece discussing two global infrastructure ETFs along with PAVE.
    https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/etfs/602631/infrastructure-etfs-trillions-spending
    And a US News piece (via WTOP) giving nice one paragraph summaries about what distinguishes each of seven infrastructure funds. It includes MLPX. It also includes SPDR S&P Transportation (XTN). If one is going to consider an ETF (or two) focused on energy infrastructure, then I suppose why not consider an ETF focused on transportation.
    https://wtop.com/news/2021/09/7-infrastructure-etfs-to-cash-in-on-1-trillion-bill/
    P.S. For a totally contrarian (pure foreign), high risk (China focused), dare I say wacko option, there's OBOR - One Belt, One Road. And yet, it's a five star fund, and a lot less volatile than PAVE.
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    A good article on the challenges of managing money in retirement.
    better-get-a-spending-strategy
    The problem with spend down rules is that they assume that the objective of spending in retirement is simply not running out of money. Actually, the objective is… well, spending—and having some predictability around one’s income. Not running out of money is the constraint, not the objective.
  • Small-caps at all?
    @JonGaltIII : "Separate note: when evaluating many "top performing" SC funds, the mean reversion 10+ years ''
    Would you care to comment more on that statement. Are you talking from the high point to mean or low point to mean ? Also, does this statement work for growth as well as value ?
    Thanks for your time , Derf
  • WordPress Security Breach & MFO
    At the bottom of MFO Home, it says "Proudly Powered by WordPress", https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/
    Then there is news on security breach at GoDaddy's WordPress that says that emails, passwords, etc were compromised. What is MFO advising its members to do? https://gizmodo.com/a-security-breach-exposed-emails-and-site-passwords-of-1848108614
    "GoDaddy recently learned that the impacts of a compromised password can be far-reaching. The domain registrar and web hosting platform revealed on Monday that it had experienced a security breach that disclosed up to 1.2 million email addresses for active and inactive Managed WordPress customers, as well as those customers’ WordPress administrator passwords."
  • Small-caps at all?
    I own WAMCX and MSSMX ... the latter can be much more volatile and has had a tough year. I wasn't aware of CSMVX but @gk3105gklm keeps mentioning interesting funds to me. To your question... it depends on if you can stomach the volatility in SC for the increase in returns over the SPY. It probably wouldn't be a "main" component but I understood your question to be ... any percentage. Yes would be my answer. A smaller percentage. Separate note: when evaluating many "top performing" SC funds, the mean reversion 10+ years
  • QE, Wealth Concentration, And Political Risk
    Alternatively, maybe, a somewhat brighter future possibly, in the tradition of DClinton, HMann, and Ike:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/22/opinion/biden-infrastructure-spending.html