https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4353473-vanguard-short-term-treasury-etf-offers-safety-low-yield
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Offers Safety But With A Low Yield
/For investors that want a higher return with low credit risk, you may have to seek funds that have higher exposure to investment-grade corporate bonds/
Good etf to consider for this environment

PRSNX is labeled by Morningstar as "World Bond/Dollar hedged." Dunno how many others there are in THAT category. It "feels" like an orphan to me in that regard--- like MAINX, listed as EM bonds, but it is actually geographically limited to Asia only: a sub-category of a category. I can't rely on the performance-percentile numbers on those two. You can't even get a handle on the size and shape of the pie. I'm adjusting to the big-feeling daily moves up and down from BRUFX, since share price is over $500.00. Before today's numbers get recorded, my only fund in the black is PTIAX, up just a fraction YTD. Although below the break-even mark, my others are not doing terribly. PRDSX is my worst, -9.7%. But it's just 1.78% of the portfolio.

You're being quite reasonable with a 2% target. Without substantial junk or going long (except for corporates and world hedged), it's not that hard to find solid bond funds with SEC yields at least that high. I've identified a reasonable representative for a number of different bond fund categories:
Corporate Bond (Lipper Corporate BBB): FCBFX (BBB, 7.79 year eff duration), 2.43% yield
Intermediate Core (Lipper Core): VCOBX (A, 6.04 duration), 2.02% yield
Intermediate Core (Lipper US Mortgage): OMBAX (BBB, 2.91 duration), 2.38% yield
Intermed Core Plus (Lipper Core Plus): BCOIX (A, 5.56 duration), 2.28% yield
Intermed Gvmt (Lipper GNMA): PRGMX (AAA, 1.50 duration), 2.63% yield
Short Term (Lipper Short Inv Grade): USSBX (BBB, 1.95 duration), 3.30% yield
Ultra Short (Lipper Ultra Short): TRBUX (BBB, 1.00 duration), 2.31% yield
World Bond (Lipper Global Inc.): DODLX (BBB, 3.20 duration), 3.62% yield
World Hedged (Lipper Global Inc.): FGBFX (AAA, 7.17 duration), 3.04% yield
ISTM there are four basic levers for bonds: credit rating/risk, duration, leverage, and options (more generally, derivatives). I've avoided leverage, tried to keep duration moderate to low, and credit rating above junk.
Options present not only a risk, but a risk in estimating the risk. Even for GNMA funds. Unlike vanilla bonds and vanilla funds, the effective duration shown for bonds with options are not exact calculations but are based on models that may fail at the worst times. These models make the effective durations shorter than for comparable vanilla bonds. In addition, the options (ability to pay off early or extend a mortgage past what a model predicts) tend to make the convexity close to zero or even negative. That means that when interest rates move, the effect on the prices of these bonds is worse than than on prices of vanilla bonds.
My point here is that one shouldn't just compare PRGMX to BCOIX and think the choice is a no brainer (higher rating, lower duration, higher yield). IMHO every fund above is worth a look depending on what one wants. But each one has a different risk profile (and a different amount of uncertainty in that risk). It's not just yield that matters, but total return and time frame.

I concur. Many companies retracted their earning forecast as there are too much uncertainty in their business. Powell's statement is sobering that indicates a quick V-shape recovery is unlikely this year.
@bee, thank you for sharing your list. I have many disappointment this year. Few brighter spots:
VFIIX, +3.7%
VGIGX, +6.8%
VBMFX, +5.1%
VHIGX, +8.8%
VGT, +10.9%
plus the same balanced funds you have as well.

PTIAX was up today. My other bond funds were down. Once upon a time, stocks and bonds were expected to behave differently from each other, eh? PTIAX holds 26% munis. They have to be HY munis, though, with coupons---many of them--- above 5% and one that I see is at 8%...... Otherwise, 58% "securitized." That 58% number happens to be the proportion of bonds in my portfolio, too. Portf. down -2.15% today. It hurts, but it would hurt more if I panic-sell in the morning..... Interesting times!

I like Tad Rivelle. own TSI, but I looked at 3/31/20 report....I don't have any clue how they can have a 18% dividend.
25% of portfolio is cash/treasuries so that's like 1-2% tops. Maybe some bond gurus on this site can figure out this mystery?

Howdy Shost,
Hope you're doing well.
The new prediction is 200K by September. The problem is that doesn't take into account the continued opening and events. The explosion in AZ is traceable to the Memorial Day holiday. In another week to 10 days we'll see another outbreak due to the protest movements and demonstrations. DT is starting his events on Juneteenth in Tulsa so we'll see a 2 week lag outbreak all over those parts. [BTW as an aside the republican party is making everyone sign a virus waiver that wants to attend].
These are the easy ones. How about back to school, sporting events and how about the election. Geez, if they waited up to 14 hours in GA to vote in a steeenking primary, letting the whole world know that they will crawl to 100 miles of shit to vote in November. They'll fight through the virus, the poll closures, the disenfranchisement ALL OF IT to vote that SOB out of office.
Add it all up and I'm figuring the death total will be 500K by the end of the year.
As for the economy, every one of these spikes will cause people to stay cautious, minimize spending, and continue to hunker down. That will cause the economy to continue in the dumps, in turn causing the crazies to call for more opening up, in turn causing the cautious to disengage more. Economic death spiral.
Sorry, but
and so it goes,
peace,
ronoi

Thanks, msf
So they aren't making ROC payments. Just very good performance due to low AUM? Seems like a lot of funds have good initial performance due to low AUM. Makes me wonder why a closed end fund like TSI or DBL can't maintain great performance when they're only around 250 million in AUM. 250 is still a lot more than 12 million though.

Hi guys: I'll post more on the barometer tomorrow but with market close today and thus far this week I have the S&P 500 Index down -7.1% from Monday's close of 3232 to today's close of 3002. Even with this decline the barometer based upon it's metrics scores the Index as extremely overbought with a reading of 133. Summer is here and generally stocks go soft during the summer months. Plus earnings are looking soft as well. But, there is the Fed buying assets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overheated-momentum-doomed-stock-market-155204976.html
Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to
June 11, 2020, 10:52 AM CDT
/Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to Quick Reversal
(Bloomberg) -- In a stock market inundated with retail investors rushing in to buy anything that moves, the swift reversal we’re seeing was more or less inevitable./
Is this a fierce corrections Will we see DOWS 18k levels again?...we are at where we were 2 wks ago

By Old_Skeet's mythology the S&P 500 Index is gextremely overbought. I'm now leaning towards trimming my equity allocation now that I'm pretty close to getting back towards even.
Can stocks go hgher? Absoutely. And, I hope they do!

Looks like the @Old_Skeet’s overbought/oversold methodology is trumping the “infallible” “undefeated record” of the Zweig breath thrust indicator

Hi Junkster,
Great to see you posting! I do hope you continue.
I understand that FD1000 sold everything the other day. Of course, he knew what today was going to bring ;-)
Mona

This fund has had incredibly strong performance since opening in Nov of 2018, up 27.8% since inception. I can't figure out how the yield is so high, 18%.
It has about 57% in investment grade bonds, mostly mortgages and corporate credit, no EM, a duration of 2.67, an average bond price of $94.11 and 23% in cash. Non of that indicates anything risky. It only dropped about 5% in March and is up 7% YTD.
Are they doing a "return of capital"? Is it because their asset base of 12 million is so small? They have a small amount in a few derivatives but nothing close to what Pimco uses. Seems to good to be true, what am I missing?

We all have some sort of “barometer”: Internal guidance, hunches, an index we watch, technicals, a plan written down, prior experience or maybe a “guru” we follow. @Junkster, who I’ve enjoyed following a long time, seems to rely heavily on some technical indicators. Currently under discussion is the Zweig Indicator. I’m “late to school” when it comes to technicals. Even today I view them with a bit of skepticism, telling myself they’re probably better indicators of market psychology than anything else. Given that, in this era of investing, psychology - if not the name of the game - is very important however you cut it.
I enjoy Ol’Skeet’s comprehensive write-ups very much. All of us can take a cue from his meticulous planning and devotion to his value metrics. Is he always right? Don’t know. My recollection says “no.” So I went back and looked at what he wrote on March 20. That had to be very close to the recent bottom. Remember it because I made a small purchase of DODGX that day.
“The barometer as of market close Thursday maintains its reading of 180 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold. I am also detecting that a bottom is forming as three of the data feeds and influences that the barometer use are green lighting.” (March 20, 2020)
So good call back than Ol’Skeet.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55474/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-spring-reporting-and-my-positioning/p2

Hi @Junkster, I hope you are well and things are rolling good for you with your new endeavor.
Can you tell us more about this endeavor? From what you have written, thus far, it sounds interesting.
On the barometer ...
One of the three main feeds found in the barometer is an earnings feed for the S&P 500 Index. From a report that I follow, generated by S&P, ttm earnings for the Index are forecast to fall over the next four months, or so, from May at about the $107 range down to September to about the $94.00 range. Looks like a recession? But, generally the stock market leads! Let's hope that it continues upward and that it does not follow earnings in another swift downdraft.
Another reason that the barometer reflected an overbought nearterm condition is that 97% of the stocks within the Index were recently trading above their 50 day moving average. Where is there much nearterm upside left? Perhaps, there is as only 60% of the stocks in the Index are above their 200 day moving average. Let's hope the upward momentum continues.
And, so it goes ...
The barometer reflected information that I used to increase my allocation to equities weeks ago. Now, it is suggesting that I lighten up. Which I am in the process of doing. And, with this, I plan to sell down (not completely out) my equity allocation into this upward stock market movement.
Indeed, it is interesting about the Zweig Indicator you have referenced that many traders have used in the past with good success. I'm not knocking it. However, for me, I'm a long term investor (more so than a trader) that tweaks their equity allocation from time-to-time around my barometer readings. When the barometer reading is high indicating an oversold condition is present I buy equities and when the barometer reading is low indicating an overbought reading is present I sell equities. Pretty simple ... but, effective.
Thus far, I've never had anybody equate my system to the Zweig Thrust Indicator. Perhaps, I don't understand the Zweig Thrust Indicator or perhaps ... even more so ... you don't fully understand my system.
Please know, I wish you the very best and your continued success.
Old_Skeet

For the honest side of life. I retract the EXIT of the original subject line. I wrote previous, in a reply: "The sell fits our mix, and is not a recommendation for anyone else."
Paul Simon lyric.....modified by me:
I met my old lover (investing)
On the street last night
She seemed so glad to see me
I just smiled
And we talked about some old times
And we drank ourselves some beers
Still crazy after all these years
Oh Still crazy after all these years
So, sold about 28% of the portfolio equity in mid-February and bought ZROZ (AAA zero coupon bonds). Good call.....well, yes; to a point. Watched the profit become +15% due to COVID shutdown and then the equity market melt. I let this run too long and kept +5% profit. An, oh well.
'Course we're aware of the Fed backstop of "everything". Then the equity turn around.....my, what a CRAZY run!!!
My topic line here about an exit of AAA bonds found my concern with how many Treasury bonds were going to be issued and who the hell was going to buy........ AAA bond pricing was also fading away.
Here we are again, back into ZROZ............and yes; folks are buying most types of Fed. backed bonds........why not, eh???
Don't know about the equity sell down today (June 11). Perhaps a short lived rotation into whatever by the large players.
Excerpt from below link: The Fed also said it would maintain bond purchases at "the
current pace" of around $80 billion per month in Treasuries and
$40 billion per month in agency and mortgage backed securities.
Fed. Treasury purchases, etc.
NOTE: those holding managed, quality bond funds should discover decent returns, as of late.
Some day in the, future I/we will have to stop playing with the money this way.
I do believe I'm low on coffee intake.
Take care,
Catch

GLFOX is more like owning the railroads, electric company, and waterworks from Monopoly. All the infrastructure is already built. And half of that is utilities.
YTD performance is in the same league as Vanguard's utility index (VUIAX), but pays a 5.2 yield vs. 2.52. I have been a happy owner for five years in the IRA. And I added it to the taxable during the recent excitement.
While reviewing their portfolio I noticed they are nearly 18% cash.

VWINX most recently experienced a (-18.5 %) draw down (from its recent high on 2/21/2020) and a DD recovery of a little less than 4 months time (Feb - June). I spent some time today reviewing and comparing VWINX to other funds I own.
On a YTD basis many of my funds have returned to positive territory.
Allocation funds that I own that are positive YTD - PRWCX, VGSTX, VWINX - each roughly 2% positive
Allocation fund that is still negative - BRUFX - down 2%
Some other fund in the red YTD:
FRIFX - down 11% (riskier than I imagined)
THOPX - down 7.3% (Poor performance for what I consider a cash like fund)
FMIJX - down 16.8% (has had some recent big up days) - Toe hold
VMVFX - down 10.4% (this has been a surprise to me...very volatile recently)
POAGX - down 0.5% (Always surprises)
VHCOX - down 3.2%
VWO / VEIEX - down 9.3% - Toe Hold
Some funds in the black YTD:
VGHCX - up 3.9%
PRHSX - up 5.6%
FSRPX - up 11.4% (retail choices in this fund are far from dead)
FSMEX - up 2.6% (medical device companies have been good past performers)
PRMTX - up 19.95% (its recent DD was similar to VWINX, but its 100% Media and Tech)
PRGSX - up 8.6% (showing strong momentum from the bottom)
PRNHX - up 16.9% (wish...need to own more)
PRIDX - up 1.8% - Toe Hold
Cash like Funds YTD:
VFISX - up 3.3%
PRWBX - up 2.5%
PTIAX - up 0.1%
I try to identify and understand the downside risk (beta) in my holdings and getting more practice than I wish for. It is probably a more important dynamic than upside potential (alpha). Downside risk either bruises, cuts, or maims your portfolio. I'm trying to minimize the cutting and the maiming.
Anything surprising you in your portfolio?

By Old_Skeet's mythology the S&P 500 Index is gextremely overbought. I'm now leaning towards trimming my equity allocation now that I'm pretty close to getting back towards even.
Can stocks go hgher? Absoutely. And, I hope they do!

Looks like the @Old_Skeet’s overbought/oversold methodology is trumping the “infallible” “undefeated record” of the Zweig breath thrust indicator.

Thanks @JohnN. Here's a related article on Muni Mutual Fund choices:
best-taxfree-income-funds

A Muni-Bond Fund That Lets You Sleep at Night
By Debbie Carlson
June 10, 2020 7:00 am ET
Duane McAllister in Milwaukee.
https://www.google.com/search?q=A+Muni-Bond+Fund+That+Lets+You+Sleep+at+Night
By+Debbie+Carlson&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
/During his childhood, his family owned a construction company in northwest Illinois that installed water mains and constructed highways—the exact type of projects he now invests in as the senior portfolio manager for the $1.1 billion Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond fund (ticker: BTMSX). His first job after graduating in 1989 with a bachelor’s degree in finance from Northern Illinois University was with Northern Trust’s muni-bond team. At the time, he.../
https://www.google.com/search?q=BTMSX&oq=BTMSX&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.1288j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
Btmsx
Will keep it on watch list