more nuance to the dynamics and variables
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20211119&instance_id=45812&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=74850&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/6a62367a-9f26-5e08-b070-ffc1bcb482c1

Thanks for bringing MIEX to our attention. I did my due diligence on it and was excited to buy it when I found that Schwab unfortunately doesn’t offer it. Starting to review SCIEX now instead. A bit more volatile but almost same performance over a 10 year period.

A conversation with current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.
Video

+1

Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.

Thank you, @Crash, your comments are certainly informative. What are your stock holdings if you don't mind me asking?

Hello, @Mav123.
My only single stock holding amounts to a tiny sliver of one percent of my total: ENIC. Chilean electric utility. I'm looking at a loss these days which in percentage terms is big. But there's been lots of political junk happening, and on Sunday, 21st Nov. there is to be an election....
Fund-wise: PRWCX. PRIDX PRDSX and wife's IRA is in BRUFX. Both PRWCX (closed, still?) and BRUFX are allocation funds, holding both stocks and bonds. :)

@Mav123,
I owned MIEIX via my 401k.
My 401k changed to the CIT version of MIEIX this past July.
M* lists MIEIX brokerage availability here.

@BaluBalu, let us see what @TheShadow says.
On search, I found that ETFs from BlackRock/iShares, Hartford, Schwab, Vanguard (integrated list) are already listed. So, from my short list, only Invesco and SSGA remain to be added.
As many firms offer both mutual funds and ETFs, it should be easy to include ETFs so that there are 2 links instead of 1 link (except for the firms that issue a combined list).

Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.

Thank you, @Crash, your comments are certainly informative. What are your stock holdings if you don't mind me asking?

In the Foreign Large Blend category, I like SCIEX and MIEIX*.
The SCIEX management team also manages 30% of VWILX.
MIEIX has below average costs, low turnover, and usually provides good downside protection.
Mr. Ling started managing MIEIX on 10/01/2009; Mr. Webber began managing SCIEX on 03/01/2010.
Portfolio Visualizer Results from Mar 2010 - Oct 2021
*Morningstar fund category was Foreign Large Growth prior to 2020

Thank you, @Observant1 as well. I looked up MIEIX and noticed a large outflow of funds this year from M*'s pages. By the way, which brokers allow to hold/trade this fund as Schwab says: "Restricted".

Mairs & Power
https://www.mairsandpower.com/about-us/company-news/item/121-estimated-2021-capital-gains-and-dividends
Looks like 6-8% this year.

Vanguard list includes ETFs.
Typically, you have to go to ETF sponsors' sites. There are so many ETFs and ETF sponsors. But I suppose that a thread can be started with the major ETF Sponsors, BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Invesco, Schwab. But then it would be lot of effort to make the list complete.
BlackRock https://www.ishares.com/us/capital-gains-distributions
Vanguard https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/FADIVDAT_2021.pdf
State Street https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/resources/documents/capital-gain-distributions
Invesco https://www.invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=d575f061-c209-45fe-a6f5-cf8d9735aae5
Schwab - I only found its general schedule https://schwab.bynder.com/m/15dbdbecf7339e7f/

Do you have to sell the Roth because your Vanguard holdings are unavailable at TRP?
If so, you may want to consider exchanging your Vanguard holdings for ones which are available at TRP prior to the transfer.
This should enable in-kind transfers of your Roth assets from Vanguard to TRP.

Maybe, maybe not. Worst case is if one has Vanguard funds in an account on Vanguard's mutual fund platform and one wants to transfer money into a closed TRP fund.
One cannot buy non-Vanguard funds on Vanguard's mutual fund platform. One would have to open a Vanguard brokerage account and then transfer the Vanguard funds from one Vanguard platform to the other. Then one would have to sell shares of a Vanguard fund and I suspect wait a day before buying some open TRP fund as a placeholder. Then one could do the in-kind transfer. Then on the TRP side, one would do a same day exchange from the placeholder fund into the target TRP fund.
See also Rube Goldberg.
Or one could fill out the TRP form indicating (a) which Vanguard funds to sell in what amounts (or to sell everything) and (b) what TRP fund(s) to buy when the cash is received by TRP. The transfer form has an option to request that Vanguard wire the money. Vanguard charges all of $10 for that unless you're a Flagship customer. Then it is free. This helps reduce time out of the market.
BTW, TRP has an option to fill out the form "online". But their customer service tells me even if you do this that when you get to the end of the process the system is going to tell you to print out the form. Then sign it, and you may also be required to get a signature guarantee (it isn't required for transfers from Vanguard). Then send the form to TRP.

Like @Observant1 said, talk with TRP first before starting the transfer. You need to open a brokerage account first (if you don’t already have one) and have TRP help fill out the form. You still need to print out the form and mail them.
If TRP carries the funds on their brokerage, you can do “in-kind” transfer without selling and buying on TRP end. If the fund is already “closed”, trying to buying at TRP is not possible. Thus, in-kind transfer is the way to go.
If these are Vanguard funds and TRP carries them but on their Transaction fee platform, then you need to find the equivalent fund on TRP brokerage.
Fidelity is most convenient for this type of brokerage-to-brokerage transfer. Everything is done securely online without having sending in the paperwork, Vanguard and TRP follow the traditional way and take several more days to complete the transfer.

I think you guys understood when I said “I have followed Grantham's various public pronouncements about equity returns for the past 10 years,” I only meant I noted his pronouncements (and prepared a watch list to validate his pronouncements.) Luckily, I never invested in line with his pronouncements.
Finally, I respect money managers’ skills, even those whose ways of marketing I do not agree with, Grantham included. One just hopes one never comes across a Madoff or his variants.
Good luck to all of us in our effort to fine tune our BS radar.
Wishing you all healthy investing!

Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.
This briefing is for the week ending November 19, 2021.
The Index Review
For the week the major equity indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -1.38%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.24%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -2.85%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were consumer discretionary +3.74%, technology +2.39%, and utilities +0.98%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.26% and is up year to date 25.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.83% and for the week lost -0.10%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.83%.
Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) +2.35%, EWT (Tiawan) +1.41% and SPY (US S&P 500) +0.32%.
Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +0.70%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.21% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.11%.
Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +4.11%, DBA (Agriculture) +1.62% and GLD (Gold) -1.05%.
Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were PIO (Global Water) -0.16%, MOO (Agribusness) -1.37% and TAN (Solar) -1.50%.
Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.98%, FXB (British Sterling) +0.14%% and FXY (Japanese Yen) +0.02%
A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: My "All Weather Asset Allocation" of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes my volatility, and provides me long-term returns.
The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide me the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback or to take advantage of seasonal investment trends. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are currency, money market mutual funds, FDIC bank deposits and CD's. Generally, this area benefits from rising interest rates.
The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, BAICX & PONAX .
The 40% held in the equity area provides me dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, which, over time, helps to offset the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are AMECX, IDIVX & SPECX.
From their neutral weightings, 40% each for my stock and bond areas, overweights (underweights) are allowed at + (or -) 5% with rebalance thresholds set at + (or -) 2% from desired weightings while cash is allowed to float. Thus the maximum weighting for both stocks and bonds could be as high as 47% each with their minimum weightings being as low as 33% while cash is allowed to float with a weighting range of 6% to 34%. So what seemed, at first glance, to be a very conservative asset allocation does allow for positioning based upon market reads along with some other influencing factors. Currently, I am overweight equity through the engagement of a spiff position and a little underweight in my fixed income sleeve due to anticipated rising interest rates.
Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way, I have found, principal grows over time as well as the size of my disbursements. My objective is to continue to grow my principal along with increasing my income stream.
Articles of Investment Interest
Is Investing an Art, a Science, or a Craft?
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/969787/seth-klarman-is-investing-an-art-a-science-or-a-craft
Europe Lockdown Fears Knock Stocks, Spark Dash for Bonds
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2021-11-19/
The Big Green Push to Get Rid of Coal Had the Opposite Effect
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-big-green-push-to-get-rid-of-coal-had-the-opposite-effect
Wall Street Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield in 2022
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-forecasts-us-dollar-10-year-treasury-yield-2022-2021-11-18/
Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

“As you can see in the chart below, Dumb Money Confidence has surged … ”
They’re apparently referencing a chart published a few days earlier. Here is the Schwab article from November 15 which contains the referenced chart.

Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.

No one (including myself, Mr. Grantham, Dodge & Cox or T Rowe Price) is offering investment advice.
Grantham may be exercising a time honored persuasive technique.

I pity the poor soul who has followed Grantham’s advice over the past 10 years or so.

FWIW,
I and everybody I personally know invest based on our view of the future - I.e., personal predictions - and within the limitations life imposes on us. Agree that prediction in this context is not the same as certainty of outcome.
I have followed Grantham's various public pronouncements about equity returns for the past 10 years. A few years after one such pronouncements, his firm's then deputy CIO (Ben Inker?) was asked in a Morningstar interview why their funds did not reflect those pronouncements and he came clean saying that they never got around to investing in line with those pronouncements. Lucky for their fund shareholders.
The linked article in the OP includes the following: "Our forecast is to have a negative return on US stocks over the next seven years. I strongly believe that will be accurate." [Bold added] He may turn out to be correct about negative returns for SPY or VTI from now until October 2028 (7 years?) but not IMO because of currently known facts. I am invested in SPY and am not reducing it based on the quoted statements but I will understand if somebody at MFO wants to reduce or even liquidate their SPY or other US equity holdings based on those statements.
Nobody should take the above personally. No offense is intended.