M* Changes in Classification of Some Multi-Asset Funds Addendum, 5/30/22. For the 3 funds in the M* example, FKIQX (nominal equity 38.59%, new M* MPRS 68.81%, Effective Equity 63.67%), RBBAX (20.44%, 44.21%, 44.75%), ACEIX (63.47%, 88.26%, 82.42%), both M* MPRS and Effective Equity systems lead to 1-notch bump ups in their respective categories. For OAKBX (61.20%, 92.97%, 85.96%), both systems would indicate 2-notch bump ups, but M* did only 1-notch bump up in its category. For FAIRX (88.47%, 110.27%, 132.21%), M* old and new categories don't make sense. It seems that regardless of the new M* MPRS data, M* has done just 1-notch bump ups and that may have been a business decision. In these evaluations, all data used are to 4/30/22 (M*, PV).
BusinessWeek 'The Death of Equities'
BusinessWeek 'The Death of Equities' Updates for now:
Barron's
LINK1Bloomberg BusinessWeek
LINK2
Many sentiment indicators have been at levels associated with major bottoms. But sentiment indicators can be fickle and imprecise. What you need is strong price momentum to confirm the sentiment indicators. The past three trading days were very powerful - advances over declines and upside/downside volume. But three days does not a bull make. If the next 5 trading days are more of the same though a major bottom will be in place if history is any guide. But that is a big “if” so let’s see what next week brings, Bear markets are notorious for sucker rallies. The 73/74 bear had a doozy of a bear market rally of
15%.
BusinessWeek 'The Death of Equities' Updates for now:
Barron's
LINK1Bloomberg BusinessWeek
LINK2
BusinessWeek 'The Death of Equities' The infamous BusinessWeek
'The Death of Equities' cover story has long been touted
as a contrary stock market indicator.
I stumbled across this story on Barry Ritholtz's website and hadn't read it before today.
This is an interesting (but lengthy) article from a historical perspective.
Link
M* Changes in Classification of Some Multi-Asset Funds Yes, that nominal equity % over 5 yrs has carried over from old to new M* pages. But that doesn't explain, for example, OAKBX having 60.78-71.04% nominal equity range, but then having new MPRS of 92.97% (reference about 100% for SP 500) and Effective Equity of 85.96% (reference 100% for SP500). So, the devil is in the details of types of stocks and bonds held and also allocation moves (untimely?). I would have bumped OAKBX category from 50-70% 2 notches up to 85%+, but M* may have gotten cold feet in making hard application of its new measure.
A Wall Street legend's 10 market rules are still relevant Bob Farrell was a frequent guest on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.
MarketWatch published an
article (also in Barron's) earlier this month about Bob Farrell.
Mr. Farrell was feeling bearish during a recent webcast.
"In the April 27 webcast for Rosenberg Research clients, Farrell said he expects investors in U.S. stock indexes could be mauled with a 30% loss and that downward pressure on share prices could last through summer. He advises selling into rallies rather than buying dips, and otherwise sheltering in value stocks—specifically in the defense, cybersecurity, utilities and energy sectors, as well as owning gold and income-generating master limited partnerships."
Dividend Paying Funds I found this article from Investopedia
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082015/3-biggest-misconceptions-dividend-stocks.aspuseful in thinking about picking funds that pay dividends. My first reaction to the OP led to a suggestion that Free Cash Flow may be just as important a criterion in choosing funds that will pay a decent yield. Obviously the managers of a fund such as SCHD are well aware of this measure of a company’s financial health because without FCF no safe dividends can be paid. I have tilted my LCV and MCV allocations towards funds such as COWZ (which pays a quarterly dividend) and GQEPX and away from stalwarts such as VIG. I think CDC is worth considering as is DSTL. To be clear, my primary goal is not current income, and I reinvest all distributions. For an investor experienced in trading CEFs, some equity funds have adopted distribution plans that may pay out 6-8% on a quarterly schedule. HQL and BME are funds I have held. There are, of course, fixed income CEFs that can provide reliable yield; they don’t happen to fit my style of investing.