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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PRFRX switch to TUHYX
    Hello Crash. Other than Equities? That is the question this year. Positions I held last year. SJNK…. PFXF. VWEHX. SCHP. PRFRX. IUSB. Since my Equity allocation is way smaller my need to do something with “the rest “ is greater. For me losing money on the safe side of the portfolio is almost unacceptable. 0.00 year to date is looking better than I would have thought. You can’t fight the river.
    As ever, my timing is impeccable when it comes to making changes or buying new stuff. I'm down, YTD by -14%. That really smells. So.... your equity slot is smaller than your bonds. The standard wisdom is not holding up. Bonds are not a safe haven in this downturn. So, I'm thinking that it's not a bad idea to reduce cost basis and grow yield, with bonds being beat-up so badly. Most of them, anyhow. There's nowhere to run. Cash won't give you any dividends. I've seen advice which would direct us into dividend-paying equities, rather than bonds. PRDGX is down -15% ytd, but that just means this may very well be a great entry-point. And it throws off quarterly dividends. Over 3 and 5 and 10 and 15 years, it looks damn good. I'm not in it just because it's full of companies I love to hate.
    Otherwise..... I see a 3% CD at NAVY FCU if you qualify for membership. And for political reasons, I can't recommend Israel Bonds, but their rates are often attractive. Never a default. I made good money on one of their 10-year zero-coupon bonds, years ago.
    https://www.navyfederal.org/checking-savings/savings/certificates.html
    A quick glance, and I see 4.17% on a 10-year bond. And 3.4% for 3 years..... And it's in DOLLARS, not shekels.
    https://www.israelbonds.com/Offerings-Rates/Current-Rates.aspx
    "Break a leg."
  • PRFRX switch to TUHYX
    @ Crash. The bigger question is why TUHYX and why now? Care to share? As a PRFRX shareholder like you I am curious.
    Hello! @larryB .... I'm SURE I'm doing this all wrong. I'm reducing cost basis in TUHYX. It's truly beat-down. Yield is higher than PRFRX. Often I feel like it's rearranging Titanic's deck-chairs, because in the T-IRA I'm married to TRP. I'm lately starting to exercise the freedom the BROKERAGE offers. Yes, PRFRX is down some, but to me, it's not terrible. Look at OTHER bond funds, eh? I'm holding my bonds "just because." I can't bear the idea of being 100% in equities. I'm building cash, outside the Market. I like the monthly "reward," the dividends from my bond funds. Total Return is what matters in the end, but I'm about at the limit of my comfort zone right now, with 66% in stocks. Also, 7% held as cash by the Fund Managers. 27% bonds.
    Edited to add: @yogibearbull has advised us that when rates actually peak or fall, PRFRX will act like a short-term HY fund. That will not be tasty. For such a contingency, I'm looking at the likes of PRCPX.
  • PRFRX switch to TUHYX
    You can set up auto (repeating) transfer under Transfer money from Chase to another bank account when you choose Standard (as opposed to Real-time) Delivery method which gets the money in the other bank account 1-2 business days after the transfer date. For smaller repeating amounts you can use Zelle which is quicker. Real-time transfers are instantaneous but are limited to $5k per transfer and can not be set up to repeat. I would set up a test repeating transfer to make sure it is to your satisfaction.
  • Covid round 20
    Per Vox article, smallpox has been eradicated in humans since 1980.
  • Covid round 20
    Coming off COVID pandemic new monkeypox cases are causing some alarm. The fact that the principal transmission mode is through physical contact of open sores on both sides and not an airborne virus. Crowded living conditions tend to promote this transmission. The ability to identify monkey pox and isolate the patent, the more likely monkeypox will be contained.
    Smallpox has been eradicated in the world. Thus, CDC is closely monitoring the cases.
    https://vox.com/science-and-health/2022/5/19/23126248/monkeypox-infections-covid-outbreak-smallpox
  • Sell JHQAX?? Buy LCORX?
    The new SEC rules for semitransparent ETFs were only in 09/2019 (Rule 6c-11). It took a while for fund firms to get them through the SEC approvals. Now it may seem that lots of them are coming.
  • Covid round 20
    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/belgium-begins-monkeypox-quarantines-biden-warns-everybody-should-be-concerned
    Covid round 10 or 20...lost counts
    Could be more lockdowns in the near future?
    Maybe more financial loss ?
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    Some say that it was bond ^MOVE (or, the credit markets freeze) that prompted the Fed to literally move in late March 2020, not the stock VIX. But both had similar patterns. ^MOVE data are now available at Yahoo Finance.
    image
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    Friends say possible rebounds for few wks spy +2-5% ...lots speculation sp500 ~4150
    Rsi sp500 severely low
    Lots monies managers hedgies will start nibble next few wks
    Severe feared factors
    Like Mr Davfor clearly stated vix could not break 50 days resistances levels
    Short squeeze coming
    If resistance hold above 21days MA or one two wks..could moon after up to sp500: 4500after 3 4 wks...
    He txt me after looking at old data from precious historical crashes/stock evaluations and old trends data
    Of course I would argue market sentiments/psychological factors most important and could would not hold rally and could crash to resistance 3700s or lower we go
    He thinks thurs 10d ago when finished 3849 was bottom
    Lots speculations
    Stocks look very cheap
    ..the 20trillions question is can they get cheaper in 4 6 weeks
    Maybe start nibbling just a little
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    About reading the VIX tea leaves...VIX rose above 35 on 3/5/20 and continued to rise until the Fed made its announcemnt on 3/15. The stock market then bottomed on 3/23. VIX remained above 35 for about 1 1/2 months -- until 4/27. It has only poked its head briefly above 35 since then. I find it helpful to pay attention to it as a "back of the envelope" tool....
    image
  • PRFRX switch to TUHYX
    ... my impression from absorbing extensive MFO commentary over the last year or so is that Fidelity is the way to go. We use Schwab mainly because they have an office one block away from our home, but I really don't do all that much trading anymore. Those trades that I have done (via their web site) have gone very smoothly. Also, because they have a bank, it's very easy to shuttle cash back and forth between other banks, although the three day wait until it is "available" seems unnecessary and excessive.
    Similar to you, I have a Schwab office four short blocks from home. The nearest Fidelity is over in the next county. But I found that I virtually never walk in to a branch. When I do, it's for things like a notarization or signature guarantee.
    My local Schwab branch doesn't have a notary, but my regional bank on the same block does. The bank provides the service for free, even if you're not a customer. Nor does the local Schwab office actually provide a signature guarantee. It sends the paperwork to some other office to get stamped. For me, it turned out that location isn't everything.
    Regarding access to cash - it is faster if you pull the cash than if you push it. If you pull into a brokerage, it should be available for trading within a day. I think that at Fidelity the cash is also available for withdrawal about as quickly, though I keep enough "pocket change" there that quick access to a couple hundred bucks is not something I've paid attention to.
    For nearly all purposes, Fidelity's arrangement with UMB Bank enables its accounts to function like bank accounts. SS checks can be deposited, cash can be shuttled easily. (One may run across the oddball institution that refuses to work with anything but a real bank; the last time I had that problem was a decade ago.)
    Speaking of banks, I'm becoming more and more unhappy with JP Morgan Chase- to the point where we are actively considering going through the major hassle of changing the automatic deposits of our pension and SS monthly deposits to another institution.
    Service tends to degrade through branch and wholesale acquisitions. From Home Savings (itself acquired in 1993 by The Bowery Bank [see Joe DiMaggio commercial here] which had rebranded as Home Savings), to WaMu in 1998 (H.F. Ahmanson parent acquired), to the GFC takeover by JPMorgan Chase, the smaller (but not small) fish kept getting swallowed.
    Does your Chase branch still provide safe deposit boxes?
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    Well, it IS a bear market for Nasdaq Comp & R2000 (measured from November 2021) and for crazy speculative stocks (ARKK-like) & the EMs (measured from February 2021). But not YET for the SP500 and no where close yet for the DJIA. I now think that it won't be over until both the SP500 AND DJIA are pulled down too - removing all doubts about this.
    Definitions from recent highs - Pull back is down < 10%, correction is down between 10-20%, bear market is down over 20%.
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    Several people in the media are calling for VIX to be 40+ (without mentioning how much above 40) and then hope that this market will reverse. Do they realize that VIX has been almost there already? VIX was 39 on 1/24/22, 38 on 2/24/22 & 3/8/22, 37 on 5/2/22.
    Yes, it is rather silly. Much as so many headlines said that we hadn't reached a bear market because a magical, bright line hadn't been crossed. For example, CNBC's "S&P 500 falls again on Thursday, inching closer to bear market territory"
    What's that you say? The S&P 500 entered a bear market on Friday? Not so fast. According to Barron's, "At its low on Friday, the S&P 500 index was down 20% from its peak, which would have fulfilled the arbitrary definition of a bear market if it had closed there."
    Arbitrary being the operative word. The definition?
  • It May Be a Bear Market, But It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome
    @davfor - thoughts worth chewing on
    Agree.@davfor lays out a nice case. I don’t think we’re presently near the bottom of the bear market (term applyed by Forsyth this week). But we’ve made a lot of progress in that direction with the S&P down about 20% from peak and some tech heavy funds like TRBCX and TRMCX off more than 30%. That ought to have us at least half way down to ground floor from a broad perspective. Some areas may fall further and some less than that. Does anyone seriously expect the above mentioned funds to fall another 30-35% from here and go all the way down to -70% from peak? From a risk perspective, if you liked those funds 6 months to a year ago you ought to love them today.
    I follow the VIX too and am perplexed. But, it’s a measure of expected volatility - not necessarily a valuation measure. Some of those sharp spikes lasted only a few weeks. If you’re a highly skilled market timer you might find a great downdraft to throw everything in. The VIX is interesting - but I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it. I like the things I own which are very broadly diversified into domestic segments as well as internationally. Biggest problem for me is I’m getting low on cash. Have to be very discriminate in picking future acquisitions which I’ll continue to do as opportunities emerge. Would hate to sell PRWCX (down only 12%). However, at some future point moving out of conservative funds and into more aggressive funds would make sense - as I did midway / late in 07-‘09 bear market.
  • PRFRX switch to TUHYX
    I find that Fido account typically updates after 8:30 - 9:00 PM Central but Vanguard and TIAA never do until the next morning. Friday was options expiry day with high volume, so that could be the reason for TRP delay in posting account update.
    About 1-2 times every year, I have made the mistake of not clicking the final Submit screen because of some distractions (phone call or door bell or honey-do this) and then the order didn't go through. So, I now ALWAYS check the order status screen after the entry to see if the order is pending, and again at Fido and Schwab around 8:30-9:00 PM Central if their account updates are delayed.
  • PRFRX switch to TUHYX
    Sorry to hear of your trading problems-presumably at TRP. I've regretted some trades I've made, but I've never regretted opening my Fidelity brokerage account in 1993.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    May 20th Episode
    The vast majority of funds in ETFs are in passive strategies, but there’s an interesting divergence occurring. One of the fastest growing segments in the ETF universe is actively managed ETFs.
    This week’s guest is involved in both actively managed mutual funds and ETFs and one of his main responsibilities is identifying best-in-class managers for both. He is Kristof Gleich, President and Chief Investment Officer of Harbor Capital Advisors.


  • Treasury 2Y-10Y Yield Spread (EOD)
    Shorter-term Treasuries are responding to Fed actions but longer-term Treasuries are not. If this continues, the yield-curve may invert in Summer. See this chart for 2Y-10Y spread in the main panel and 10-yr in the bottom panel. T-Bills and 2-yr T-Notes are attractive now (so are I-Bonds at 9.62% up to $10K/yr/person limit).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST10Y-$UST2Y&amp;p=D&amp;b=5&amp;g=0&amp;id=p10002505086
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202205
  • Asset Allocation Funds
    BUFBX / BUFIX is classified as Allocation 85%+ equity (it had 97.26% equity on 3/31/22, Fact Sheet) and is self-benchmarked to 100% equity R3000. It has a huge overweight in energy at 24.8% (3/31/22 Fact Sheet), the only sector that is doing well now. It is unclear if this energy overweight is recent or if it always had this. It has done well in 2021 and 2022YTD, but not so well in other years. I have used the Fact Sheet data referred to by @Derf as M* has only 12/31/21 data.
    It is not a typical allocation/balanced fund as understood here. M* shows equity % range over 5 years as 87.5-98.44%, so it has that "flexibility" at rather high equity %.
    https://buffalofunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Buffalo-Flexible-Income-Fund-Fact-Sheet-1Q22.pdf