All the stock market decline has done so far is to take its value back to early January 2021. But, gains since then occurred in a TINA market supercharged by pandemic stimulus support. Bond yields are now getting high enough they may begin to provide some competition to stocks for investor dollars before too long. A somewhat successful and plausible outcome to the Feds current tightening cycle would involve them tightening rapidly until the economy shows signs of slowing towards the edge of a recession. That outcome could leave inflation above the Feds target for some time if the economy and earnings display some resilience in the face of the tightening. The Fed would then continue to more slowly continue to work to rein inflation. So, we could be left living with stagflation for some time. That environment could reasonably continue to favor slow growing, dividend paying value stocks. Some of the alternative scenarios are less optimistic than this one.....This is one type of speculation that currently keeps me from increasing my stock allotment above the level it was at the start of the year. But, a capitulation event could change that.

Several people in the media are calling for VIX to be 40+ (without mentioning how much above 40) and then hope that this market will reverse. Do they realize that VIX has been almost there already? VIX was 39 on 1/24/22, 38 on 2/24/22 & 3/8/22, 37 on 5/2/22.

The VIX is a handy metric to watch. Like the article shows, it's turned back from just below 40 a time or two during this escapade. In March 2020 (3/18/20 to be exact), it hit 85.

Good Morning Class,
Just wondering...and to be clear I have no position in HSGFX Hussy, and returns over the past 10+ years have been turrible as Chuck Broccoli, I mean Barkley would say....last 3 years have been ok.
Pondering: I believe we are about to see who are the "Big Boys" running these funds...kinda easy to go with the flow when the Central Banks have pumped in over $30 Trillion or whatever it is over the past 12-14 years....investing geniouses all...let's see who the fund champs are looking backwards from 3 years out...
Kinda like having Daddy bank roll you...easier to get thru life when you have the wind at your back.
Let's see what happens now, let's see how the "experts" etc do now...crazy...I was listening to Josh Brown's Compound Show Podcast yesterday and his guest said that everything is sped up...kind of alluding to we have this big downdraft, flush, then we start going up again. I'm sure that guy is a lot smarter than me but it struck me as an odd comment.
This fiasco in Ukraine has a long way to go to play out....knock on effects will be long and impactful...kooky decisions made in Washington DC now will have long term negative effects...so much overstocking of made in Chi com junk....inflation is not going away any time soon, crypto fan boys getting their arse handed to them...won't mention ARKK.
I'm not convinced this is a quick flush and then we bounce back up...could be a Jimmy Carter like malaise lasting several years.
Good Luck to All,
Baseball Fan

Tempted to say that articles like this are examples of panic themselves. That aside, it could certainly get a lot worse. A lot depends on the Fed. I think’s they’re largely playing a bluffing game right now and it’s hard to know how much pain they’re willing to inflict. Once the economy starts to tank both inflation and interest rates should come down. Volker is heralded as a hero, but the pain / unemployment inflicted on the working class was immense. People tend to forget.
The Fed’s control is at the short end - but there are ripple effects. It’s been pretty brutal already. When I look at some of TRP’s conservative funds like TRRIX, PRSIX, PRWCX and see them down 10-12% or more this early in the year, that’s a sign of the carnage.
I don’t know. Been slowly ramping up exposure to equities all year. Am aware equities can be a bottomless pit under some unusual circumstances (ie the 1930s). Should the markets crash by 50% or more, we’ll have a lot more to worry about than our pocketbooks. Remember that things are seldom as gloomy or as sunny as they look,
The interesting aspect is the damage in bond land. That’s why folks may not be moving out of equities. Pick your poison. I may attempt to time certain sectors if I think they’re relatively cheap or expensive, but not the broad based market. Think I’ve mentioned a small hold in a bear fund, TAIL, It had a decent week. Has helped dampen volatility. Actually down 1% YTD.

QQQ outperforms other LC-growth such as VUG, SCHG. They just follow different indexes.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=QQQ&compare=SCHG,VUG&id=p06555195825

$1,500 trade/exchange submitted overnight, 18th-19th May, '22. The record shows it pending on evening of the 19th. Waiting until the next morning to see it has executed is not a rare thing. (Timeliness, promptness? Who cares about THAT?????) But now, on the evening of the 20th of May, that transaction still is not showing up, after I log-in. TRP has a "secure message system." I sent a message. Still no reply. Is that because they don't give a shit? Don't have enough people hired to do this stuff in a timely manner? Or is it just easier to blame the victim, warning about periods of high volatility and high call volume, and high message volume--- resulting in delays in getting a reply to my concern? Shit. Just..... SHIT. What am I supposed to DO? Shit. They can't manage $1,500???????? More shit. Just plain shit. Shit. ..... EDITED to add: the thing showed up, finally. 2:00 a.m. Hawaii Time, Saturday. 21st May, 2022. Someone can delete this, if they choose.

Sorry Sir. Prob 660 points reversals-did not look carefully
Dji ~31400s up 5am premarket
Down to 30600 after lunch
Finishes near 31260 closes...think up a little after hour too
Maybe slowly add more spy qqq next wk
Friends speculated VIX did not reach previous interim high/resistance (past two wks) today, sp500 did not finish lower than 3850 resistance, which may present bottom processes/formation... they say may probably sideways or massive uptrends next few wks...
I am dipping small amounts very carefully ( mostly long positions) probably buy more voo qqqm next wk
If course they could be 50% right

+1 for VPU info

@johnN, I can't find the 1100's point reversal you're talking about. Could you tell me what you were referring to or was your post a misprint?

Here is a review of some current market readings. It's hard for me to see a lasting rally from current market levels. Too much is uncertain. I'll continue to sit on set aside cash for now.
It’s Not a Panic. That’s Worrisome

Crazy ~1100s points reversal

From Bespoke Report free email.
The first shows historical weekly losing streaks for the S&P 500. At 7 consecutive down weeks (and counting), this is the longest losing streak for the US stock market since 2001. There have only been three prior 7-week losing streaks since WW2, and none have lasted longer than 8 weeks. We are quickly approaching uncharted territory if the market doesn't see a respite from selling soon.
Our second chart highlights the number of positive trading days seen over all rolling 100-day periods since 2000. With just 43 positive days in the last 100, there hasn’t been a lower frequency of positive days since October 2008 at the depths of the Financial Crisis!
Of course when everyone believes it...

BenWP, free Portfolio Visualizer (PV) can handle the MIX of mutual funds (OEFs), ETFs, CEFs and stocks properly. It is the only free software that provides portfolio MPT data. The free version doesn't allow storing portfolios anymore, but one can have portfolios saved in EXCEL and upload up to 3 at a time. LIMITATIONS of PV include its use of MONTHLY return data (so it misses finer details within the months; this is similar to M*), the free data goes back to 1985 only, and free PV run periods are limited to that for portfolio holding with the SHORTEST HISTORY (the paid version can substitute something similar for longer runs).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-technician-who-called-the-2020-market-bottom-says-a-shocking-rally-is-in-store-11653043583?mod=home-page
Noted technician Tom DeMark, who called the bottom in 2020 after COVID emerged, disagrees. The founder of DeMark Analytics — known for advising hedge fund managers like Paul Tudor Jones and Steven Cohen — told Fundstrat's head of technical strategy Mark Newton that key markets are on the verge of reversing
Been nibbling very little
Wait and see
Prices are cheap though fyi
He got 50% being right lol

KMLM is an intriguing idea, @wxman123. PQTAX has the disadvantage of less flexibility than an ETF. Do you watch its trading volume and bid/ask and look for an entry point? I am familiar with trading low-volume ETFs, sometimes known as roach motels.

Thanks very much @wxman123 for that useful comparison. Is Portfoliovisualizer by subscription?

Added $spxl
will do 12 months covercall strike price 135 or 140...we will see
think we may have very good chances of positive sessions next 1-2 trading days base on previous VIX...OF course nothing guaranteed and may head down again sp500 < 3856

The CNBC columnist (Sara O'Brien) has apparently taken to recycling old(?) material. A "new" column appears today. The only new material I see is a single sentence giving the number of projected HSA accounts at the end of 2024 to be 38M, with assets of $150B.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/you-cant-save-in-hsa-on-medicare-a-bill-to-change-that-has-tradeoffs.html
To add a little new material to this thread, here's a question I have not been able to answer about Medicare premiums being eligible medical expenses:
- An HSA owner may use the HSA to pay qualified medical expenses incurred by one's spouse. So one spouse may take tax free withdrawals from his or her HSA to pay for doctor visits incurred now or in the past by the other spouse (so long as the expenses weren't deducted, paid for out of another HSA, etc.).
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p969#en_US_2021_publink1000204083
- One cannot use an HSA to pay Medicare premiums before one turns age 65. This is a very rigid rule: someone age 62 cannot use an HSA to pay for a 65 year old spouse's Medicare premiums.
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p969#en_US_2021_publink1000204086
- If a spouse is the beneficiary of an HSA, then the HSA become's the spouse's, much as a surviving spouse may elect to treat an inherited IRA as one's own.
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p969#en_US_2021_publink1000204097
Now, what happens with Medicare premiums paid by the deceased spouse? Suppose spouse A, deceased, had paid premiums at age 65 (qualified expenses) before the surviving spouse B turned 65?
Had A withdrawn money from the HSA prior to death, the withdrawals would have been tax-free based on the premiums paid. But now that the HSA is owned by spouse B and the same payments were not qualified expenses for spouse B.
Is there an exception that allows the Medicare premiums to be considered qualified expenses for surviving spouse B? Or, what I suspect, does death transform these formerly qualified medicare expenses into unqualified expenses?
It's different if the beneficiary isn't the spouse. Then the estate has a year to take withdrawals as if the deceased were still alive.

https://buffalofunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Buffalo-Flexible-Income-Fund-Fact-Sheet-1Q22.pdf
If you are interested , click above link