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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Thanks Charles and yogi. To be honest I overlooked the annualized rate implication. Still better than the Schwab MM rate though which my cash has been sitting in. I think I'll make $12 profit this month :)
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Good to see 10-year new issue at 3.4%!
    image
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Yes, I know. On our search site, we don't annualize returns when period is less than 1 year.
    My bad.
    So desperate for yield!
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Still not very compelling, is it?
    1-yr Amazon, Apple, and Walmart bonds all paying more than 2%.
    Pretty comparable to cash, I think.
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    Ha. What am I missing?
    Why not put 100% into a 1-mo CD and then roll it over into another 1-mo CD? Does that not up to like 9% if done for next 12 months vs 1-yr CD at 1.6%?
    Assuming 1-mo rate continues of course.
  • Powell Backs Moving More Quickly / 50 bp increase likely in May
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-backs-moving-more-quickly-on-interest-rate-hikes-11650562888
    Most commodities markets don’t seem to like the news. While gold’s only down $10, the miners are off 4-5% for the day. Oil is up slightly. Overall, looks dismal in the commodity markets.
  • IRS tax program updates info
    Related Article:
    To keep the IRS from moving in on its business, Intuit amped up its lobbying machine. One line of argument was that the IRS shouldn’t be in the business of being both the tax collector and the tax preparer, and Intuit seemed to offer a compromise.
    The industry led by Intuit, made a counteroffer to the Bush administration: a public-private partnership that became known as the free file program. At the heart of it was a simple quid pro quo: The IRS promised the industry that “We, the government, will not create our own product. Therefore, the government is not going to get involved in competing in your market. But in exchange, you, the industry, have to create free versions of your software like Turbo Tax. And that has to be made available to a large number of Americans.”
    turbotax-free-file-online-ftc
    Audio:
    How TurboTax Tricks Taxpayers
  • Hypothetical Question for I-Bond Aficionados
    @BaluBalu, 2-yr FRN Announcement is out. Try online orders at Fido and/or Schwab now.
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/A_20220421_5.pdf
    Edit/Add: I don't see them listed yet at either place. I won't be at my PC for a while.
    Edit/Add2: I see 2-yr FRN listed at Schwab. Can buy online. Fido not updated yet. Now I have to go now.
  • CDs are starting to move up a bit
    FWIW, Schwab has some very short term CDs available with really good rates. I figure if I'm going to hold cash it might as well be in something returning more than their MM account SWVXX pays out.
    I decided to put a bunch of cash into the 1 mo CD and a small amount into 6 mo while I wait for yields to increase even more.
    as of 4/21/22
    1 mo CD rate 0.753%
    6 mo CD rate 0.902%
    1 yr CD rate 1.60%
  • Several Million U.S. Workers Seen Staying Out of Labor Force Indefinitely
    The WaPo is interesting, in that it maintains it's historic "left-leaning" reporting and editorial perspective despite being owned by Jeff Bezos, who is not exactly known for his pro-union left-leaning propensities.
    15-20 years ago we achieved the than “miraculous” ability to receive daily copies of WP electronically. Had to leave a cellular enabled device connected to a telephone landline overnight and every morning there was the WP. It was a much better and more objective paper back in those days.
    I won’t credit Bezos with the decline, since newspapers generally have succumbed to cost pressures (reducing hard content) and, to an extent, the polarization of society where a publication’s perceived “slant” may attract or discourage readers. I can only say the WP ain’t what it once was. Neither is the WSJ - but it does a better job separating the opinion out into a separate section. It has enough subscribers paying an inflated price that it can still afford good research staffs and journalists.
  • Several Million U.S. Workers Seen Staying Out of Labor Force Indefinitely
    The NYT published an article Monday illustrating one of the reasons why folks are choosing to remain out of the workforce. I've no doubt that when you are disrespected by not only the customers BUT management as well you are not going to put up with the nonsense.
    Dollar General
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/20/22
    For the week ending on 4/20/22, the Survey improved a bit but remained deeply negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (43.9%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (18.9%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (37.3%; above average). It is now 8+ weeks for the Russia-Ukraine war where the focus has shifted on the East (Donbas) and South. Investor concerns were inflation, aggressive Fed, earnings, war. In the Survey week, stocks were mixed (growth down, value/cyclicals up), bonds down, oil down, gold down. https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/593/thread
  • Templeton Global Income Fund (GIM) management under pressure
    Saba runs a FR/BL CEF BRW that trades at good discount.
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/BRW
    Saba also has an ETF CEFS that opportunistically owns CEFs at discounts. GIM is only a tiny weight now 0.60% (I think that it used to own more at one time). It doesn't list its own BRW. It has very high ER 2.90% but lot of it is from the underlying CEFs (1.10% management fees, rest from underlying CEFs + interest). I may just buy CEFS on the next big CEF selloff.
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=CEFS&region=usa&culture=en-US
    https://www.sabaetf.com/cefs
    CEFS is best of type (ETF of CEF's). I also have small positions in Rareview's new offerings, RTAI compares favorably to xmpt but low AUM makes this is hard pick for serious money. RDFI not nearly as good as CEFS.
  • U.S. Fund Investor - 2022 Q1 Money Moves
    "After seven straight quarters of inflows, investors started to pull their money from bond funds. Only $50.9 billion was withdrawn from the $5.3 trillion category group, but it marked the end of a streak that resulted in $1.1 trillion of inflows."

    "As growth strategies struggled for the second consecutive quarter, investors put more money into value funds. On an absolute basis, investors pulled the most from the large-growth Morningstar Category, taking out $20.1 billion, causing it to shrink by 1.19%. But the $4.9 billion pulled from the mid-cap growth category had a more severe impact."
    "While bond funds overall saw outflows, investors still sought refuge in strategies that offer some protection from rising interest rates. Bank-loan funds replaced inflation-protected bond funds as the inflation-fighting vehicle of choice, and long government-bond funds saw inflows."
    "Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused volatility to spike in international markets and left the future for funds that invest in Russian securities uncertain, but it didn't spook investors from putting their money into broad international-equity funds."
    Link
  • Morningstar Awards for Investing Excellence
    Today, Morningstar revealed the winners of the 2022 Morningstar Awards for Investing Excellence in two categories: Outstanding Portfolio Manager and Exemplary Stewardship. The winners of both awards demonstrate the industry's very best attributes, including investment skill, the courage to differ from the consensus to benefit investors, and an alignment of interests with the strategies' investors.
    Outstanding Portfolio Manager: Mary Ellen Stanek, Baird Asset Management
    Exemplary Stewardship: Primecap
    Link
  • Templeton Global Income Fund (GIM) management under pressure
    Templeton Global Bond (TPINX) was one of the premier funds in the World Bond category years ago.
    TPINX was different from most World Bond funds due to substantial emerging markets exposure and widespread currency bets. The fund generated top 1% / top 2% category returns for the respective 10 Yr and 15 Yr trailing periods as of 01-31-16. Michael Hasenstab (M* 2010 Fixed-Income Manager of the Year) started co-managing TPINX on 12/31/2001.
    Templeton Global Income (GIM) was the CEF version of TPINX.
    I purchased GIM in late 2013.
    GIM was trading at an attractive discount and it had a lower expense ratio than TPINX.
    Unfortunately, the discount widened and Mr. Hasenstab lost his mojo.
    I sold the CEF approximately five years later booking a tiny profit.
  • Proposed HSSA - Health Savings for Seniors Act
    The current bill is HR 7435, introduced on April 7.
    I don't expect this to go anywhere either. That said, IMHO it still has significant flaws.
    As I understand it, HSAs were part of a package added to the Medicare expansion act in 2003 (that created Part D) in order to mollify thirteen conservative representatives. Without HSAs, high deductible health plans (HDHPs) leave many people with health coverage in name only - a complaint heard more recently including here about some ACA plans. HSAs make HDHPs, where people have more skin in the game, more palatable.
    Medicare does not have high deductibles, nor is it a disliked program. So it doesn't need HSAs to spur participation. And to the extent that people want alternatives, there is already Medicare Advantage. So it seems that the main raisons d'etre for HSAs don't apply.
    If the intent is simply to hand seniors who need extra help some money, one could target it better. For example, reduce premiums so that instead of covering 1/4 of costs, they cover 1/5 (that's a 20% reduction). Then increase IRMAA amounts to make up this difference. Revenue neutral, while providing Medicare assistance to those most in need instead of giving tax breaks that most benefit those who need it least.
    There's another type of problem with this proposal. AFAIK, the government has not set up a program where people were promised tax-free earnings only to have them later taxed upon withdrawal. It would be as if the government said about Roths: sorry, we're taxing your earnings now.
    I could see disallowing tax-free use of HSA contributions and earnings for premiums going forward, but disallowing the tax-free use of past contributions and earnings sets a dangerous precedent.