I have suggested in past the Fidelity Asset Manager series for benchmarking. This series has equity allocations of 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 85%. https://www.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fidelity-fund-portfolios/asset-manager-funds
5 members of this Series are shown YTD (reset if defaults to 1 year) in Stockcharts and note the sharp mid-March dip, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=FASIX&compare=FAMRX,FASGX,FASMX,FTANX&id=p08325402070

I tried using AOK as my personal benchmark based on my 31% equity allocation. I am down .87% YTD as of today. I must be a (timid) genius. LOL. Another 30% er,,,, VTINX is also failing to provide protection. It seems obvious that a giant slug of bonds is doomed for the near future. As for providing ballast, as a certain cult advocates, a jar in my closet does it better.

@larryB - To me a benchmark / tracker serves as a combination road map and sobriety meter. It helps point you in the direction you intend to go and helps confirm that’s where you’re headed and that you’re staying in the proper lane. Low volatility is important to me and so the benchmark makes for a nice comparison tool. Whether one owns anything in the benchmark ISTM is not important.
I use a tri-fund tracker equally weighted among AOK, PRSIX and ABRZX. The only one I own is ABRZX which has significant commodity exposure. Beating the tri-fund tracker has been easy this year. But RIO, which I own, has turned south lately. So if commodities roll over and bonds recover some earlier losses, than the tracker should outperform.

Now I have a non-linkable "proof" based on checking numbers on our OWN tax returns and what was mentioned in our SSA "DETERMINATION letters" (received typically in November/December) that it is like the 1st FORMULA. So, the SSA takes the AGI from the 1040 of 1-2 years ago (that includes only the TAXABLE Social Security payments) and adds TAX-EXEMPT interest to get MAGI for IRMAA. The Determination letter mentioned those 2 numbers separately and the total and said that the IRS provided them to the SSA. Specifically, the untaxed portion of the Social Security payment was NOT added to MAGI for IRMAA.
The 2nd formula can also be found quickly on web search but it is used for other things, NOT Medicare IRMAA. But misleading statements can be found on the web.

I tried using AOK as my personal benchmark based on my 31% equity allocation. I am down .87% YTD as of today. I must be a (timid) genius. LOL. Another 30% er,,,, VTINX is also failing to provide protection. It seems obvious that a giant slug of bonds is doomed for the near future. As for providing ballast, as a certain cult advocates, a jar in my closet does it better.

ASFYX looks more like straight equity managed futures with an FI overlay, with > 4% yield. But hard to tell, their only website I can find doesn't have the usual fund info, just an email address to query .. which I did. Fidelity has the A shares (AMFAX) NTF and load waived, $2,500 minimum. The $100k ASFYX minimum leaves me out too.
I thought that Chesapeake fund sounded familiar; I owned it for a while in 2015, bought not long before it peaked and headed south. I guess there's a lesson in that.

Yes, date them; don't get married! 8^b I think there's a window here if things are going to behave reasonably, rather than unpredictably. These types of funds weren't particularly productive when btd ruled the day. Right now they're looking pretty good.

This formerly stellar conservative ETF was off 8.61% YTD before today. With a slight .11% gain today, it’s still down 8.5% YTD. I’ve long watched it; owned it briefly earlier this year before discarding it. The fund allocates 30% to equities and 70% to fixed income. For comparison, after today the Dow Jones is down only about 3.5% YTD and the S&P about 6.4%.
What’s the point here? Only to demonstrate the remarkable degree of carnage the bond avalanche has wrought upon previously fine funds with a reputation for “preserving capital”. - Yeah.
Question? What does the future hold for AOK and a whole legion of formerly considered “safe” funds with similarly heavy fixed income / bond holdings? Do you ever expect them to recover their former safe haven status? Get back to “break-even”? When might that be? I haven’t looked at target date funds, but must assume that those structured for capital preservation (late in life investors) have probably lost more this year than their more aggressive brethren.

ASFYX looks more like straight equity managed futures with an FI overlay, with > 4% yield. But hard to tell, their only website I can find doesn't have the usual fund info, just an email address to query .. which I did. Fidelity has the A shares (AMFAX) NTF and load waived, $2,500 minimum. The $100k ASFYX minimum leaves me out too.
I thought that Chesapeake fund sounded familiar; I owned it for a while in 2015, bought not long before it peaked and headed south. I guess there's a lesson in that.

@chinfist, it is a free article from the WSJ so anyone should be able to read it. Anyway the article does elaborate more.
"Several million workers who dropped out of the U.S. workforce during the Covid-19 pandemic plan to stay out indefinitely because of persistent illness fears or physical impairments, potentially exacerbating the labor shortage for years, new research shows.
About three million workforce dropouts say they don’t plan to return to pre-Covid activities—whether that includes going to work, shopping in person or dining out—even after the pandemic ends, according to a monthly survey conducted over the past year by a team of researchers. The workforce dropouts tend to be women, lack a college degree and have worked in low-paying fields."

That is the only part of the article that can be read unless one subscribes. I read that part. My questions pertained to if they are not working, where are they getting money in order to pay the rent/mortgage, food, etc. Does the article address this?
Edit: it looks like you can read it if you register, without having to subscribe.

Caught the interview of Brian on the "entertainment" Mad Money show. Found a few interesting comments from the CEO of BOA that have broader market implications:
Cramer: Americans have a lot of dry powder and that can keep us out of a recession.
Moynihan:
*March 2022 vs. 2021. Consumers spent 13% more and 8% more transactions.
*April 2022 vs. 2022 Consumers are spending more than 18% in April and this exceeds inflation. Faster spending.
*Consumer accounts with 1-2K now have $3,500 in their checking account.
*Consumer accounts with 2-5K in their accounts now have $13,000 in their checking account
*Card spending is up 33% in early April vs. 2019 for those earning >50K
*People are earning more and being paid more
*Travel and restaurant spend has been constrained and people have been saving!
*"Investors say don't fight the Fed, I always say, don't fight the US consumer"... "loan balances are down and they have plenty of spending capacity".
The US economy has been constrained due to COVID... despite inflation and Ukraine, the US is much better positioned to have a strong economy this year. Makes you wonder why there's so much financial commentary on the positive outlook of International stocks and funds. I remain unconvinced and think the best values still lie in domestic funds.
Cramer: "America has the edge on the rest of the world... that's the secret sauce that explains a great deal of todays' gains."

+1. Thank you, @WABAC.

@rabockma1, thanks for noting that.
On 2nd look, I see that both WABAX (ER 0.46%) and WATFX (ER 0.83%) are no-load/NTF at Schwab, but the former is indicated as restricted. May be this was a recent change.
At Fido, only WABAX is no-load/NTF and WATFX has transaction fee (and load?).

+1. Following this thread! Seriously looking at single-stock PCFBY.

@Crash. The bulk carriers use different terminals than the container ships.
Check out the Baltic Dry Index if you aren't already. A number of sources quote it.
Home page for the Baltic Exchange.

+1. Following this thread! Seriously looking at single-stock PCFBY.

Crypto seizures.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/secret-service-seizes-more-than-102-million-in-crypto-assets.html

@Old_Joe: I believe what you have written about the separation between news and opinion at the WSJ did in fact exist. I was a long-time reader until about two years ago. I had no quarrel with the investigative reporting (on Elizabeth Holmes and on avaiation, for example), but the formerly objective news coverage came to be slanted once 2016 came to pass. What I noticed in particular was the use of terms such as “left-leaning” to describe any politician not Republican as well how stories about DT’s rallies clearly expressed a favorable opinion of how the rabble was behaving on that particular day. Any news operation has to choose what events to cover; what I was doing was reading the NYTimes alongside the Journal. The Gray Lady had the facts, the WSJ presented poorly-disguised opinion pieces.

@chinfist, it is a free article from the WSJ so anyone should be able to read it. Anyway the article does elaborate more.
"Several million workers who dropped out of the U.S. workforce during the Covid-19 pandemic plan to stay out indefinitely because of persistent illness fears or physical impairments, potentially exacerbating the labor shortage for years, new research shows.
About three million workforce dropouts say they don’t plan to return to pre-Covid activities—whether that includes going to work, shopping in person or dining out—even after the pandemic ends, according to a monthly survey conducted over the past year by a team of researchers. The workforce dropouts tend to be women, lack a college degree and have worked in low-paying fields."

Reading through these threads I'm surprised (but shouldn't be) at how some are abandoning bond funds, even good ones, and jumping into presumed inflation-fighter funds. The latter may be a good idea (but also may be fighting yesterday's war), but not understanding the dumping of bonds. Many bond funds are now experiencing their biggest drawdowns ever, it is their 2008 moment. We all know the narrative, and it is completely sensible, which explains the decline. History teaches these are good buying opportunities, and that is how I'm playing it, but it has not been easy. Seeing a hint of stability at the short end of the curve, maybe a good sign. This is a quick easy read that sums up the situation, https://www.virtus.com/assets/files/5hw/what_does_a_bond_bear_market_look_like_4596.pdf

Excellent contrarian analysis. Not sure where some got the notion bond funds only go up or they're no good.

In the recent weeks, several series have been presented here at MFO for sampling. Some/all of these may continue depending on their reception (Views) here. Keep in mind that any single issue of a series may not be of major importance, but patterns that develop over time become significant.
6 Monthly
I-Bond Rates
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59453/i-bond-rate-5-1-22-10-31-22-a-guess
Quarterly
Barron’s Fund Quarterly
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59445/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2022-q1-april-11-2022
About 1.5 Months
FOMC Statements & Related Releases
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59338/fomc-statement-3-16-22
Monthly
Cumulative Fund Allocations (Distribution AUM % for OEFs + ETFs)
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59154/fund-allocations-cumulative
Weekly
AAII Sentiment Surveys with YBB Commentaries
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59465/aaii-sentiment-survey-4-13-22
These come from the following where some other series can be found.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/board/15/current-interest-topics-data

As of April 14
https://gcaptain.com/port-of-long-beach-march-cargo-record/

Vessel traffic service officials reported this week that the containership backup outside of LA/LB has been reduced to 44 ships, down from a record 109 in early January.

As of April 7
https://www.businessinsider.com/supply-chain-shipping-containers-east-coast-backlog-west-coast-2022-4

More containers are waiting to unload outside ports on the US East Coast than on the West Coast, according to vessel tracking website, MarineTraffic.
More than 600,000 containers stacked on ships and waiting for capacity to unload were bound for the US as of Wednesday, MarineTraffic said in a tweet. Of those, 186,000 were waiting off the West Coast, while 273,000 were waiting off the US East Coast.

April 19
https://www.logupdateafrica.com/shipping/empty-containers-piling-up-in-us-pushing-down-prices-1345160

Empty containers piling up in U.S. pushing down prices Container prices have dropped by 30% in two months across east and west coast and more than halved at some ports.