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Sure, there are some stocks that appear to be expensive, but there are other sectors that remain at low multiples and just coming into their own. Financials continue to do well. Some cyclical stocks starting to break-out, like AA.
So, I remain cautiously optimistic. Hopefully with spring thaw comes continued real earnings growth.
Here is M*'s latest market barometer...2% above fair value:
"Here is M*'s latest market barometer...2% above fair value"
Where on the Morningstar website do you find the above data? Coverage Universe: All Rated Stocks; Today's ratio? That's good stuff. I'd like to check that periodically
In their book “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff show that after a major credit crisis, recoveries are typically far softer. Weaker GDP, slower growth and mediocre job creation are typical. That sums up our economic experiences since 2009 rather well, don’t you think?
That has not stopped the guessers from looking at every twitch of the data as the start of something significant. As we discussed last year, economic data are very noisy. This year, a lot of the numbers have been disappointing. Retail sales have been weak, auto sales have missed consensus estimates, and housing has been soft.
Normally, without some rational explanation, I would be concerned about that sort of data. This year, for a change, the weather is a legitimate excuse. I usually mock the retailers who complain that it is cold in Minnesota in January (Really? Who could have seen that coming!?) But this has been the winter of our discontent. I’ve lived in New York for half a century, and I do not recall ever having this many days where temperatures were in the teens and single digits. We had snow in 49 of 50 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. At the same time, a drought struck western states, and California had its hottest winter on record.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
So, I remain cautiously optimistic. Hopefully with spring thaw comes continued real earnings growth.
Here is M*'s latest market barometer...2% above fair value:
Where on the Morningstar website do you find the above data?
Coverage Universe: All Rated Stocks; Today's ratio?
That's good stuff. I'd like to check that periodically
Regards,
Ted
OJ
Are Stocks Pricey or Cheap?
by Barry Ritholtz - March 29th, 2014, 9:30am
In their book “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff show that after a major credit crisis, recoveries are typically far softer. Weaker GDP, slower growth and mediocre job creation are typical. That sums up our economic experiences since 2009 rather well, don’t you think?
That has not stopped the guessers from looking at every twitch of the data as the start of something significant. As we discussed last year, economic data are very noisy. This year, a lot of the numbers have been disappointing. Retail sales have been weak, auto sales have missed consensus estimates, and housing has been soft.
Normally, without some rational explanation, I would be concerned about that sort of data. This year, for a change, the weather is a legitimate excuse. I usually mock the retailers who complain that it is cold in Minnesota in January (Really? Who could have seen that coming!?) But this has been the winter of our discontent. I’ve lived in New York for half a century, and I do not recall ever having this many days where temperatures were in the teens and single digits. We had snow in 49 of 50 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. At the same time, a drought struck western states, and California had its hottest winter on record.
I am willing to give the economic data the benefit of the doubt for another month or two. Were the recent data legitimately affected by the whacky winter weather, or is this the start of an economic downturn? We shall find out before the Fourth of July fireworks are upon us.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/03/are-stocks-pricey-or-cheap/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)
What are your favorite sentiment indicators these days?